Tag Archives: Adam Conley

September 27, 2017

Games of the Day

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Adam Conley faces Jon Gray as the Marlins finish their series in Colorado. Conley is finishing poorly, with a 9.56 ERA in September, having allowed 24 hits, six for homers, in 16 innings. Gray pitched impressively at home this season, posting a 2.93 ERA.

The Cubs can once again clinch the NL Central title with a win or Milwaukee loss. John Lackey takes on Michael Wacha. Lackey made 29 starts so far this season, the same as he made all of last year. He’s pitched 25 fewer innings in those starts, due to a reduced strikeout rate leading to more hits and home runs. Wacha pitches a must-win game for the Cardinals with a 3.12 ERA at home. He is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA against the Cubs in three starts this season.

The Twins can claim the second wild card with a win against the Indians or an Angels defeat. Adalberto Mejia takes the hill against Danny Salazar in Cleveland. Both own identical 4.48 ERAs. Mejia is the opposite of an innings eater, have pitched just 94 1/3 innings in 20 starts. That’s mostly due to high walk and home run rates. Salazar is similar, although part of his low inning total comes from a few relief appearances. His very high K rate has not balanced his high walk and home run rates.

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April 15, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Cardinals and Yankees start off the day with Carlos Martinez facing CC Sabathia. Martinez showed great control in his first two starts. For his career, his walks are low, but not impressively so. This season, he walked one batter in 12 1/3 innings. Sabathia comes into the game with a 1.64 ERA, having not allowed a home run in 11 innings. He has walked six and struck out five, however, and whenever those two number are in parity, trouble seems to follow, especially in Sabathia’s case where the walk rate is too high and the strikeout rate is too low.

The Rays continue their series in Boston with Jake Odorizzi taking on Chris Sale and the Red Sox. The Rays batters have hit 14 home runs this season to Boston’s four, as the Red Sox are at the bottom of the majors in homers. The Red Sox do lead the AL in doubles with 22, so there is some power there. So far this season, it’s been tough to start a rally against Odorizzi, as he allowed a .229 OBP with the base empty. Once started, the flood gates open, however, as opponents hit .333/.385/.750. That and the three home runs allowed explain his 4.50 ERA despite good numbers. Sale walked two and struck out 17 in 14 2/3 innings this season, but has yet to win a game. The Red Sox scored late in his first game (a 3-0 shutout), and just one run in his second.

Justin Verlander squares off against Corey Kluber as the Tigers continue their series with the Indians. Verlander held opponents to a .188 BA so far this season. That might continue today, and the Indians hit starters much worse than reliever this year. Twenty one of their eighteen RBI came against relievers this season, despite many fewer plate appearances. Kluber is off to a rough start thanks to four home runs allowed in 12 innings. He gave up 22 all last season in 215 innings.

Finally, Jacob deGrom leads the Mets against the Marlins and Adam Conley. deGrom allowed just eight hits in two starts this season, seven of them going for singles. Conley was supposed to make his second start of the season Friday, but pitching in the sixteen inning game pushed him back a day. He tends to allow home runs, and the Mets lead the majors in that category with 21.

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September 26, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Indians start a four-game series in Detroit, with Corey Kluber taking on Buck Farmer. The Indians clinched an AL Central tie with the Tigers losing on Sunday, so the Tigers need to win all their remaining games while Cleveland loses all of theirs. The Tigers also need to win as many as possible to have a shot at the AL Wild Card.

Kluber can set a new single season high with a win as he goes for his 19th victory of the season. Kluber dominated Detroit this season, 3-0 in three starts with a 1.88 ERA. He struck out 24 in 24 innings with just five walks. Farmer makes his first start of the season. He struck out 25 in 24 1/3 innings as a reliever, but walked 16.

The Mets travel to Miami for what will no doubt be a very emotional game as the Marlins publicly mourn the death of Jose Fernandez. Fernandez was schedule to start this game, but Adam Conley gets the pressure of filling in for the former ace. Bartolo Colon takes the hill for the Mets.

Colon pitched great since the start of August, with a 2.26 ERA in ten starts. He’s also giving the Mets 6 1/3 innings per start in that time. Conley’s ERA is about one run better at home, as he allowed just 4 of his 13 home runs in Miami.

Finally, the Mariners and Astros start a three-game series as both team fight for a wild card. The teams are both on the edge of the wild card race, and any kind of split in the series likely ends the chances for both teams. Hisashi Iwakuma battles Collin McHugh. Iwakuma posted his highest season win total this year, but also his highest ERA. His ERA is at 4.24 against the Astros. McHugh is 3-0 in September with a 3.27 ERA. He allowed just one home runs in his 22 innings this month.

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August 7, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Indians and Yankees lead off the day with Carlos Carrasco facing Masahiro Tanaka. Carrasco is a control artist with just 28 walks allowed in 95 1/3 innings pitched this season. Tanaka allowed four home runs in 23 1/3 innings since the all-star break.

Madison Bumgarner and Tanner Roark provide one of the best pitching matches of the day as the Giants finish their series with the Nationals. Bumgarner’s 2.25 ERA represents the lowest single season mark of his great career. Opponents have to make the most of their times on base, since Bumgarner holds them to a .263 OBP this year. Roark never allowed a home run to the Giants in 21 2/3 innings.

Miami and Colorado are fighting for wild card spots as Adam Conley takes on Jon Gray. In addition, Ichiro Suzuki is one hit away from 3000. Conley’s ERA is about a run higher on the road than at home, allowing seven of his 11 home runs away from Miami. Gray is a rare pitcher who does well at Coors, where he is 5-0 this season with a 3.83 ERA.

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August 1, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Marlins visit Chicago to play the Cubs with Adam Conley taking on Kyle Hendricks. Conley comes off a great July, 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in five starts. He did not go deep, pitching just 29 2/3 innings, but struck out 27 batters. Hendricks owns a 2.39 ERA for the season, but is just 9-7 on the year. He is 7-1 at home, however, with a 1.36 ERA. The Cubs have scored just 26 runs in his nine road starts, nine of those coming in one game.

Stephen Strasburg tries to become the first pitcher to crack 15 wins in the majors as the Nationals visit the Diamondbacks. Archie Bradley takes the mound for Arizona. Strasburg threw 127 1/3 innings in 2015, 127 2/3 innings this year. He struck out 155 in both seasons. His 36 walks are ten more than last year, and he allowed one fewer home run. His ERA stands 78 points lower, with just about the same three-true outcomes. The difference is hits allowed, 115 in 2015, 90 so far in 2016. It strikes me that with Danny Espinosa at short and Anthony Rendon at third, the Nationals are turning more balls into outs. Bradley appears to be a poor match for Chase Field, as nine of his 11 home runs came at home.

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July 27, 2016

Games of the Day

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Wednesday is a good day to find a sports bar with an extra-innings package and enjoy some great lunch time pitching. Two excellent pitching match-ups start at 12:10 EDT. Stephen Strasburg faces Carlos Carrasco as the Nationals continue their series with the Indians. Strasburg comes off his first loss of the season. He comes into the game 13-1, with 148 K and 34 walks in 120 2/3 innings. Carrasco owns a 2.31 ERA, despite 12 home runs in 85 2/3 innings. With a .149 BA allowed with runners in scoring position, 17 of the 26 runs against Carrasco were driven in with homers.

In Miami Zach Eflin of the Phillies takes on Adam Conley of the Marlins. Eflin struck out just 26 batters in 50 1/3 innings. That’s flirting with the point where a pitcher gives up so many balls in play that he can’t do well in the majors. He allowed just 45 hits, and along with his extremely low walk rate, Eflinis doing quite well with a 3.40 ERA. Conley blows batters away with 106 K in 110 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 44.

Finally, the Yankees go for a sweep of the Astros as Masahiro Tanaka battles Lance McCullers. Tanaka thrives on the road, with a 1.50 ERA and just one home run allowed in 60 innings. He allowed 10 home runs in 69 innings at home. McCullers strength is his strikeout rate, 90 in 70 1/3 innings this season, the second highest in the majors for pitchers with at least 70 innings. That’s countered by having the third highest walks per 9 in the majors.

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July 22, 2016

Games of the Day

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Playoff contenders Cleveland and Baltimore meet with Trevor Bauer facing Dylan Bundy. Bauer greatly reduced his home runs allowed this season by inducing more ground balls. He’s throwing more two-seam fastballs, which makes sense. Bundy proved easy to hit this season, with a .307 BA allowed as he makes just the second start of his career after 24 relief appearances.

The Giants continue their swing through the AL East, stopping in the Bronx as Madison Bumgarner takes on Masahiro Tanaka. Bumgarner makes his fourth start of the season against an AL team. The junior circuit makes more contact against Bumgarner than NL teams, with just 14 K in 19 innings. Tanaka and Yankee Stadium don’t mix well, as 10 of his 11 home runs allowed came in New York.

The Mets and Marlins battle for the second wild card slot as Logan Verrett battles Adam Conley. Verrett’s success as a reliever has not carried over to his time as a starter. He walked eight batters in 25 2/3 innings as a reliever this season, and 20 batters in 36 1/3 inning as a starter. Conley is off to a good start in July, 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts. He struck out 18 and walked five in his last 17 innings.

Finally, Yu Darvish faces Danny Duffy as the Rangers play the Royals. Despite his injuries, Darvish struck out 28 batters in his 20 innings of work this season. Duffy struck out 80 batters in 70 innings as a starter, 21 in 18 innings as a reliever, so it doesn’t matter what role he plays.

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July 3, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Indians and Blue Jays finish their series with Corey Kluber facing J.A. Happ. After rough luck the first two months of the season, Kluber produced a lower ERA since June 1. He did lower his walk and home run rates, but there were pretty good earlier. Happ comes into the game 10-3 with a 3.70 ERA. Four times in his starts the Blue Jays scored 10 runs or more.

The Mets go for a four-game sweep of the Cubs as Jon Lester takes on Noah Syndergaard. Two of those games were one-run victories, and one was a blow out of a Cubs team that usually wins by a wide margin. Lester’s 2.03 ERA would represent the best single season mark of his career by far. Opponents are hitting just .169 against him with runners in scoring position, and 10 of the 11 home runs he allowed were solo shots. Syndergaard greatly reduced his home run rate from last season, having allowed just five in 94 innings. Four of those five were solo shots.

John Lamb takes on the Nationals as Stephen Strasburg is scheduled to return from the disabled list against the Reds. Lamb’s strikeout rate is down compared to his rookie year of 2015, but so is his batting average allowed. Strasburg is pitching one of his best seasons, with tons of strikeouts and few walks. His only weakness is a slightly high home run rate.

Finally, the Marlins and Braves play a special Independence Day game at Fort Bragg. Adam Conley faces Matt Wisler, the Braves taking the field as the home team. Conley handled the Braves well so far this season, allowing just two runs in 12 1/3 innings. Wisler holds batters to a .303 OBP, but tends to give up power hits with men on base.

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May 16, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Marlins trail the Phillies by 1 1/2 games in a very tight NL East as Adam Conley faces Jerad Eickhoff. Conley exhibits a huge reverse platoon split this year. Left-handed batters are hitting .370/.452/.556 off the left-handed pitcher, vs. .189/.277/.302 against RHB. He faced left handers only 34 times out of 152 total BFP. Eickhoff struck out 36 in 40 2/3 innings, but is giving up a fairly high .269 BA for that strikeout rate.

The Rays travel to Toronto, the Blue Jays up one game as the teams hold third and fourth place in the AL East. Drew Smyly takes on J.A. Happ. Smyly is pitching well in terms of walks and strikeouts, but allowed seven home runs in 44 2/3 innings. Happ comes into the game with a 5-0 record and 2.05 ERA. This will be his third start against the Rays this season, with three of the four home runs he allowed coming in those games. These were also his two no decisions.

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May 5, 2016

Virtual No Hitter

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Adam Conley of the Marlins pitched 7 2/3 no-hit innings in his last start before coming out of the game against Milwaukee. He’s now thrown three no-hit innings to start the game against the Diamondbacks. Two starts ago, Conley walked two in the sixth inning and recorded two out, so he has not allowed a hit in the last 11 innings in which he pitched, covering 34 outs.

Miami leads Arizona 1-0.

April 29, 2016

Conley No-No

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Adam Conley of the Marlins no-hit the Brewers through seven innings so far. He walked three and struck out six as Miami leads 5-0 as they bat in the top of the eighth. An error also added a base runner, but the Marlins turned a double play, so Conley faced three over the minimum.

Conley entered the game having allowed 86 hits in 86 1/3 innings. He has thrown 100 pitches, 62 for strikes.

Update: Conley throws 16 pitches, strikeouts one batter, walks another, and gets a fly out, then Don Mattingly takes him out. It will need to be a combined no-hitter.

Update: José Urena comes in and makes an error, then gets the next hitter on a come-backer. The Marlins are three outs away from a no-hitter.

April 19, 2016

Games of the Day

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Washington sends Stephen Strasburg against the Marlins Adam Conley. Strasburg is walking batters at about twice the rate of last season, but has yet to allow an extra base hit. All ten hits against him were singles, which helped keep his ERA low. Conley is blowing away batters so far, with eleven strikeouts in seven innings on the mound.

The Tigers and Royals battle in the AL Central as Shane Greene against Yordano Ventura. Thirteen home runs in 83 2/3 innings helped stick Green with a 6.88 ERA in 2015, but he hasn’t allowed a home run in seven innings, and only three hits in 2016. With 12 strikeouts in 11 innings, Ventura allowed just six hits. He’s trading them for walks, however, as he issued nine free passes.

Finally, the Cubs and Cardinals clash with Jason Hammel and Jaime Garcia on the mound. Hammel is another pitcher with early success despite a high number of walks, seven in twelve innings. Garcia upped his game so far with 19 K in just 15 innings.

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April 7, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Nationals return to Washington for their home opener against the Marlins. Adam Conley faces Tanner Roark. Conley pitched a strong rookie season in 2015, posting a 3.76 ERA in 67 innings with good strikeout and walk rates. He is a mature pitcher, seasonal age 26 in 2016. Roark returns to the Nationals rotation where he had so much success in 2014. He took a step back as a swing man in 2015, but even with a higher ERA he continued to outperform his FIP.

The Giants open at home against their arch rivals the Dodgers. Los Angeles sends Alex Wood against Jake Peavy. Wood saw a large drop off in his K rate in 2015, and the move from Atlanta to Los Angeles didn’t help. Peavy begins his 15th season in the majors. In his 2258 1/3 career regular season innings, he’s consistently struck out more than three times the number of batters he walked. He’s also only made one relief appearance in 357 games.

If I had to bet on a game to generate a no-hitter, I’d pick the Rangers at the Angels. Derek Holland and Hector Santiago face teams with very low batting averages so far in 2016. Texas scored 10 runs to the Angels 1 because they drew 13 walks to the Angels 1.

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