Tag Archives: Trey Yesavage

October 29, 2025

Jays Take the Lead

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The Blue Jays beat the Dodgers 6-1 in game five of the World Series to take a 3-2 lead in the best of seven series. Toronto got their second great start from rookie Trey Yesavage, then collected nine hits and six walks to plate their six runs. The Dodgers threw four wild pitches in the game, and made a couple of defenses miscues that did not result in errors.

The teams travel back to Toronto for game six on Friday. No word if they will wear scary uniforms. The game takes place at 8 PM EDT, 5 PM PDT.

October 29, 2025

Yesavage Goes Seven

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Trey Yesavage just finished seven innings against the Dodgers by inducing a double play. He allowed three hits and struck out twelve without walking a batter, throwing 104 pitches. That’s two gems in the post season for the rookie, and he is in line to get the win as the Blue Jays lead the Dodgers 5-1 as Game 5 heads to the top of the eighth inning.

October 29, 2025 October 29, 2025

Playoffs Today

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Game five of the World Series takes place Wednesday evening at 8 PM EDT/ 5 PM PDT in Los Angeles. Game one starters Trey Yesavage of the Blue Jays and Blake Snell of the Dodgers take the mound once again. Neither pitched especially well in game one. Yesavage lasted just four innings, giving up four hits, three walks, and two runs. Snell went five innings, allowing eight hits, three walks, and five runs.

Yesavage pitched more in the post-season than in the regular season in his brief career. In a total of 33 innings he struck out 43 batters, walked 17, allowed two home runs and fourteen runs. Despite his great performance against the Yankees, he is not invincible.

Snell owns an excellent post-season history, 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 74 2/3 innings. He blows batters away with 93 strike outs, leading to just 52 hits. Only 15 of those hits went for extra bases, giving him a career opposition slugging percentage of .316 in the playoffs. The Blue Jays are the type of team that can get to Snell, as we saw in game one, but we also saw Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is similar, find a way to miss Blue Jays bats.

Enjoy!

October 24, 2025 October 24, 2025

Playoffs Today

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The 2025 World Series kicks off Friday night as the Dodgers visit the Blue Jays. The game starts at 8 PM. Los Angeles sends veteran Blake Snell against the Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage.

Snell missed most of the season due to a shoulder injury. He returned in August but his success was erratic until his last three starts of the regular season when he started blowing away batters. Note that the Dodgers gave him six days off between starts, and the extra recovery time appeared to matter. He walked five and struck out 28 without allowing a home run in his last 19 innings. That led to nine hits and one run allowed. He worked on five or six days rest in the post season, with 28 K and five walks in 21 innings, no home runs, six hits, and two runs allowed. He comes into game one on ten days rest.

Yesavage started pitching in the majors at about the same time Snell got hot. He struck out 16 batters in 14 regular season innings, but did show some wildness walking seven. Like Snell, he did not allow a home runs, but did give up five runs for a 3.21 ERA. He had a moment in the post season, striking out eleven Yankees in 5 1/3 innings in his debut, but Seattle managed to score seven runs against him in 9 2/3 innings, as the walks returned, and he allowed two home runs. All his post-season starts came at home. The Dodgers will be selective against him, so we’ll see how the rookie handles this giant spot light. The Dodgers have not lost a road game this post season.

Enjoy!

October 19, 2025

Playoffs Today

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The Mariners play the first of two match points Sunday night as they visit the Blue Jays in game six of the ALCS. This series reminds me of the 1986 World Series, where the Red Sox surprised the Mets by winning the first two games at Shea Stadium. New York won games three and four in Boston, with the Red Sox coming back for a win in game five. Even the closeness of the games are similar. Mariners fans need to hope that the similarities end there.

Logan Gilbert takes the mound for Seattle against Trey Yesavage. Gilbert makes his fourth appearance and third start of the 2025 post season, and so far pitched very well, just not very much. He struck out eleven in his eleven innings of work, allowing two walks and no home runs. Opponents did collect 12 hits, but 10 of those went for singles. The Mariners likely will remove him from the game before he can get in trouble.

Yesavage failed to repeat his fantastic start against the Yankees, the Mariners knocking him around for five runs in four innings. Yesavage can be wild, as he walked seven batters in his 14 regular season innings. The Mariners took advantage of that in game two of the series as they went on to blow out Toronto.

Enjoy!

October 13, 2025

Playoffs Today

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The Mariners and Blue Jays play game two of the ALCS starting at 5 PM EDT with Logan Gilbert battling rookie sensation Trey Yesavage. Gilbert pitched eight strong inning in the ALDS, including two innings totaling 34 pitches in the fifteen innings game five. Like Bryce Miller in game one, Gilbert is basically starting on short rest. So far in the 2025 post season he allowed one run, seven hits, and an intentional walk while striking out nine. Yesavage pitched 5 1/3 innings in his MLB post-season debut, holding the Yankees to just one walk while striking out eleven.

The Dodgers visit the Brewers for game one of the NLCS at 8 PM EDT. Blake Snell takes the ball for the Dodgers, while the Brewers are still deciding how to approach the game. Snell allowed just five hits in his two starts this post season, striking out 18 in 13 innings. He did walk five batters. All of that is good for a 1.38 ERA. Jose Quintana of the Brewers likely will try to pitch the bulk of the innings for Milwaukee. He has yet to record a win in the post season covering nine appearances and seven starts. In the starter-relief role against the Cubs he pitched three shutout innings.

Enjoy!

Update: Alan Ashby opens for the Brewers. He opened on October 6th in game two of the NLDS and gave up three runs in the first inning. The Brewers answered with three in the bottom of the inning and went on to a 7-3 win. So far in the post-season, Ashby allowed five hits, four walks, and hit a batter in 4 2/3 innings. Maybe the Brewers want him for the lefties Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman?

October 5, 2025

Yesavage Done

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The Blue Jays pull Trey Yesavage after 5 1/3 no-hit innings against the Yankees. He threw 78 pitches. He walked one and struck out 11. He’s likely to get the win as Toronto leads New York 12-0.

Update: Aaron Judge singles to break up the no-hitter, and Cody Bellinger follows with a home run to get the Yankees on the board. Down 12-2, they have a long way to go.

October 5, 2025 October 5, 2025

Playoffs Today

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Because the playoffs are not long enough, the senior circuit gets three days off in a five-game series and the AL takes center stage for game two of the League Division Series (LDS). Note that in a sweep, teams get four days off before the start of the League Championship series, plenty of time for fans to forget the playoffs are happening. There is no need for a travel day between games four and five. Teams travel from one city to another without an off day all year. Time to get rid of that ridiculous waste of time.

The Yankees face the Blue Jays at 4 PM EDT with Max Fried taking on rookie Trey Yesavage. Fried made a great start early this season against the Toronto, a high run quality start late, and in between gave up 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays saw him enough that they should not be surprised by anything Sunday afternoon. Yesavage owns three MLB starts, all again teams with two-named locations. He has yet to allow a home run in 14 innings. In his very short minor league career, he allowed eight homers in 98 innings.

At 8 PM EDT, 5 PM PDT, the Mariners try to make the Tigers sweepless in Seattle. That may be tough as Detroit sends Tarik Skubal to the mound against Luis Castillo. Skubal went at least six innings in each of his four post-season starts. Even with one poor start against Cleveland in 2024, his ERA in the playoffs stands at 2.02, and he allowed just one home run in 26 2/3 innings. Castillo pitched well in his three post-season starts as well, owning a 1.83 ERA. He walked just one batter in 19 2/3 innings while striking out 19.

Enjoy!

September 27, 2025

Games of the Day

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The Yankees continue to be in a must win situation as they host the Orioles. Tomoyuki Sugano takes on Cam Schlittler. Sugano turned out to be a ball in play pitcher, with a low K rate and a low walk rate. A lot of those balls in play went for extra-base hits, including 30 home runs. That’s tied for fifth highest in the majors. Schlittler’s strength comes from limiting extra-base hits, opponents slugging just .357 against him.

The Blue Jays are not quite as must win as the Yankees, but winning keeps them in first place. The Rays send Joe Boyle against rookie Trey Yesavage. Boyle is wild, with 25 walks in 47 innings this season and 70 walks in 110 2/3 innings for his career. Yesavage struck out eleven in his first nine innings with no home runs allowed, but his five walks did hurt his ERA.

The Tigers can still win the AL Central, but have not announced a starter for their game in Boston. Rookie Connelly Early starts for the Red Sox, but it’s not clear who will come in late.

The Mets can’t afford to lose as they find themselves in a tie with the Reds, and Cincinnati holding the tie break. New York sends Clay Holmes against the Marlins and Eury Perez. Holmes pitched well against the Marlins in terms of three-true outcomes this season, but owns a 4.20 ERA in 15 innings. Perez lasted just 2/3 of an inning in his one start versus the Mets this season.

The Reds send Andrew Abbott against the Brewers and Robert Gasser. Abbott is simply tough on batters, with an opposition slash line of .234/.286/.370. Gasser is a control artist, who in a brief MLB career walked three batters in 31 innings.

The Rangers have not announced a pitcher to face the Guardians, but Joey Cantillo tries to move Cleveland an inch closer to the division title. His high walk rate is balanced by his low home run rate and high K rate.

The Astros are still alive but they need to win two games and hope that either Cleveland or Detroit loses two. AJ Blubaugh holds the season in his hands as he faces the Angels and Caden Dana. The rookie Blubaugh owns a 1.93 ERA overall, and a 2.57 ERA in two starts. He is tough to hit, but six of the sixteen hits he allowed went for home runs. Dana owns a 7.32 ERA in 35 2/3 MLB innings, having allowed eleven home runs.

Enjoy!

September 15, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Liberatore does throw left-handed, so the platooning Andujar should start today. Note that Yesavage makes his major league debut, so he is being treated having a league average hit average allowed. In his 98 minor league innings he struck out 160 batters and walked 41, so batters do not put the ball in play against him. Yes, he’s savage.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.314, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.271, 0.690 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
  • 0.264, 0.685 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
  • 0.265, 0.684 — Amed Rosario batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.267, 0.682 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.264, 0.680 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
  • 0.270, 0.679 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Kai-Wei Teng.
  • 0.254, 0.679 — Nico Hoerner batting at Braxton Ashcraft.
  • 0.272, 0.678 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Zack Littell.
  • 0.267, 0.674 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Zack Littell.
  • 0.267, 0.674 — Brendan Donovan batting vs. Zack Littell.

Both systems agree on Andujar, and he is the only batter in today’s limited schedule to have a high probability of a hit. Mangum would be the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!