Tag Archives: Michael Fulmer

September 17, 2018

Mike and the Meniscus

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Michael Fulmer damaged the meniscus in his right knee:

At the very least, however, it’s unlikely Fulmer will pitch again this season, ending what has been a frustrating 2018 campaign for him. It also means that Fulmer’s goal of ending the season healthy is out.

Fulmer, the American League Rookie of the Year Award winner two years ago and an All-Star selection last year, entered the season coming off surgery to reposition the ulnar nerve in his right elbow after experiencing numbness and tingling in his arm last year. His arm has been healthy this season, but an oblique strain suffered just after the All-Star break sidelined him for five weeks before the knee became a problem.

Getting Fulmer back to full health for 2019 would help the Tigers improve on 2018, but they could also some good, young hitters. Most of the early prime hitters on the team this season posted very poor OBPs.

September 15, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Dodgers and Cardinals continue their push for a wild card slot as Rich Hill takes on John Gant in the battle of the one syllable names. Despite walking one and striking out 15 in eleven September innings, Hill owns a 6.55 ERA, having allowed eight runs and three homers, five of the runs coming on those three homers. Gant is an odd pitcher. He walks a high number of batters, doesn’t strike out that many, but allows a low BABIP. He doesn’t induce a ton of ground balls. It looks like he has a very good four-seam fastball that gets popped up.

The Tigers play the Indians Saturday afternoon, and the Indians can clinch the AL Central with a win or a Twins loss. Michael Fulmer takes on Mike Clevinger. Fulmer’s ERA is up about three quarters of a run this season. He allowed a higher home run rate, and a .330 BA allowed with men in scoring position. Clevinger repeated his successful sophomore season, cutting down on walks while increasing his workload.

Finally, the Rockies send German Marquez against the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Marquez improves on his sophomore season, lowering his ERA 0.45 runs with more strike outs and fewer home runs in more innings. Bumgarner doubled his walks this year in about the same number of innings as 2017, but his ERA is about the same thanks to allowing less power.

Enjoy!

June 8, 2018

Games of the Day

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The White Sox send Dylan Covey against Boston and former White Sox ace Chris Sale. Covey is off to a great start, with 21 strikeouts and no home runs allowed in 22 1/3 innings. He allowed 20 home runs in 70 innings last season. Sale has struck out 418 batters in 295 1/3 innings since joining the Red Sox.

Cleveland has a four-game lead on Detroit as they open a series in the motor city. Trevor Bauer takes on Michael Fulmer in the opener. Bauer is 6-5 with a 6.48 ERA career against the Tigers, although he allowed just two runs in 15 innings this season. Fulmer is 2-3 against the Indians with a 7.31 ERA.

Enjoy

May 2, 2018

Games of the Day

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Wednesday afternoon features Blake Snell taking on Michael Fulmer as the Rays finish their series with the Tigers. Snell looks for his fifth win of the season. His 41 strikeouts in just 35 2/3 innings held opponents to just 23 hits. Fulmer is giving up middle of the road BA/OBP/Slug, but opponents are hitting just .179 with runners in scoring position.

Ivan Nova and Stephen Strasburg meet in an early evening game between the Pirates and the Nationals. Since joining the Pirates, Nova allowed just slightly more home runs than walks. His home run rate is okay, but his walk rate is outstanding. Strasburg already allowed seven home runs after giving up an average of 14 over the previous three seasons. Six of those were solo shots, however.

Luis Severino and Dallas Keuchel square off in game three of the Yankees series at the Astros Severino comes into the game with a 4-1 record, and Keuchel is the opposite at 1-4. Severino’s higher K rate led to many fewer hits allowed, especially in home runs. Severino allowed two in 38 innings, Keuchel six in 36 innings.

Finally, Hyun-Jin Ryu leads the Dodgers against the Diamondbacks and Zack Godley. The Dodgers are using Ryu sparingly, but effectively. He pitched just 28 1/3 innings in five starts, but allowed just 15 hits. Godley only pitched 28 1/3 innings, but he pitched poorly in a couple of starts.

Enjoy!

Correction: The Rays are playing the Tigers.

April 12, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Pirates and Cubs finish their series in Chicago with Trevor Williams facing Kyle Hendricks. Williams allowed just two runs in 11 1/3 innings this season, despite walking six and striking out just five. Even with the opposition going 3 for 10 with runners in scoring position, they just can’t push across the runners as only one of the ten hits against him went for extra bases. Eleven of the thirteen hits Hendricks allowed were singles, but the other two were multi-run homers.

Michael Fulmer and Trevor Bauer square off in Cleveland as the Tigers and Indians finish their series. Fulmer has little success against Cleveland, allowing a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings, with 11 walks and four home runs. Bauer struck out 14 in 13 innings so far this season, helping him hold opponents to just eight hits and three runs.

Finally, the Rockies make their way to Washington where the Nationals are off to a disappointing start. Chad Bettis faced Gio Gonzalez. Bettis, like Williams, looks like he should have a much higher ERA. He allowed nine hits and six walks in just 10 2/3 innings. On top of that, five of the nine hits went for extra bases. Gonzalez struck out 13 in his first 11 1/3 innings, and has not allowed a home run.

Enjoy!

September 11, 2017

The Nerve!

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Michael Fulmer needs surgery on his elbow to fix a nerve problem:

The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year is having a damaged nerve fixed by Dr. James Andrews in Florida. Manager Brad Ausmus said Monday that the All-Star will not throw for “three or four months,” but that the 24-year-old is expected to make a full recovery and should be ready for spring training.

Fulmer made his last start on Aug. 29. He went 10-12 with a 3.83 ERA in 25 starts. The right-hander, who had been experiencing numbness in his fingers, lost his last six decisions and didn’t win after July 15.

I wish Fulmer a speedy recovery. This stands as another example of poor play due to injury.

August 26, 2017

Intent

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There is a very fair question asked in the comments to last night’s suspension post.

How does anyone know intent? Fulmer had been missing to the arm side most of the night. You need to pitch Sanchez inside. He gets hit at the waist. Happens all the time. Looks bad when its a guy who had hit a HR in his previous AB but to blame Fulmer for what ensued seems silly.

There was a time when I agreed with this line of reasoning. I went the other way after Cole Hamels intentionally plunked Bryce Harper for no other reason than Bryce was a rookie off to a good start. When it happened, I assumed it was a purpose pitch that got away, and praised Harper for this reaction to the pitch. When Hamels admitted that he intentionally hit Harper, my mind changed on such matters. A Baysian might say I updated my prior.

What Bayes rule does tell us is that being hit by a pitch is a poor test for predicting if the person plunked homered in the game. I looked at all games started by players since 1998 in which they had at last one PA.

Using HBP as a test for having hit a home run in the same game.
HR in Game No HR in Game
Games 91274 770232
Games HBP 2964 26946

It is very clear from the data that players are hit by pitches more frequently in games in which they do not homer. Bayes rule makes this even clearer. The probability of hitting a home run given that if the only thing you know is that the batter was hit by a pitch in the game is 10%. The probability of hitting a home run given that you were not hit by a pitch is 10.5%. So being hit by a pitch is a very poor test for a player having homered in the game. That’s a good argument in favor of not knowing intent.

The counter argument is that the intent is hidden by waiting for another game, or hitting a different batter. It’s possible that a temporal test, only looking at HBP after a home run, might change the probabilities. My guess, however, is that players have a very different Baysian view of this as they probably know when their pitcher intentionally hits a batter, so they know the conditions that lead to the situation. It’s not obvious in the basic statistics, however.

August 24, 2017

Grow Up

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I find it hard to believe that teams are still retaliating when batters hit home runs:

The incident started in the fifth inning when Yankees star Gary Sanchez was hit by Tigers starter Michael Fulmer, just one inning after Sanchez hit his fourth home run of the series.

The Yankees retaliated an inning later when reliever Tommy Kahnle threw behind Cabrera.

Kahnle was immediately ejected by home plate umpire Carlos Torres. Yankees manager Joe Girardi was furious that no warning was given; he too was then ejected.

Aroldis Chapman replaced Kahnle, but before he could throw a pitch, Cabrera got into a heated argument with Austin Romine.

Romine took off his mask, Cabrera shoved him and then threw a punch. Benches cleared immediately and relievers sprinted in from the bullpen.

After taking several minutes to sort out the mess, umpires only chose to [eject] Cabrera and Romine.

Fulmer and Kahnle should both be suspended for a month. It’s well past the time to put the hammer down on revenge.

Update: Here’s more information on the initial fight, and some disruption on the Tigers bench.

August 19, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Dodgers and Tigers are featured on FoxSports1 today as Hyun-Jin Ryu takes on Michael Fulmer. Ryu allowed 16 home runs in 96 2/3 innings, but opponents have only 19 RBI on those homers. He’s had trouble with runners in scoreing position, with a .272/.348/.444 slash line, but he’s kept the big power with men on. Fulmer does a better job limiting walks at home, with 13 BB in 75 2/3 innings, compared to 21 BB in 69 2/3 innings on the road.

CC Sabathia takes on Chris Sale as the Yankees try to even their series with the Red Sox. Sabathia last pitched Aug. 8th, as the Yankees put him on the disabled list to allow his knee some rest and healing time. Sabathia pitched his best against Boston this season, with 14 scoreless innings, allowing seven hits and five walks. Sale pitched quite well against New York as well, with a 1.19 ERA in three starts, 35 K and 4 BB in 22 2/3 innings. So of course, his is 0-1.

Milwaukee has a better shot at a division title, but they are still chasing Colorado and Arizona for the wild card. The Brewers face the Rockies with Brandon Woodruff battling Chad Bettis. Woodruff goes into the third start of his MLB career with a 1.50 ERA. He allowed 10 hits in 12 innings, but only one of those came with a runner in scoring position. Bettis threw seven shutout innings in his return from cancer treatment. I suspect his high number of balls in play, however, won’t play well in Coors long term.

Finally, Stephen Strasburg returns to the hill for the Nationals in his home town, facing the Padres and Travis Wood. Strasburg elbow/nerve issue seems to have healed. This is just his third start in his birthplace, and he won the first two. Wood pitched poorly for the Royals, and now he is pitching poorly for the Padres, making his poor pitching more alliterative.

Enjoy!

July 31, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Tigers take on the Yankees as Michael Fulmer faces Luis Severino. Fulmer makes his second career start against New York, having shut them out for six innings last season. After not allowing a home run in May or June, Fulmer gave up five so far in July. Severino is now considered the Yankees ace, which may have had a positive effect on Mashiro Tanaka. In 21 innings since the All-Star break, Severino allowed three runs, one earned, walking five and striking out 21.

The Rays lost three of four against the Yankees over the weekend, now take on the best team in the AL as Alex Cobb pitches against the Astros and Charlie Morton. Cobb owns a 1.99 ERA in 22 2/3 innings since the All-Star break, despite allowing four home runs. All five runs he allowed scored on those four home runs. Morton struck out 27 batters in 24 innings since returning from the disabled list, helping him to a 3.23 ERA in that time.

Enjoy!

July 25, 2017

Games of the Day

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Milwaukee and Washington are first place teams heading in different directions as they meet Tuesday night. Zach Davies takes on Edwin Jackson. The Brewers lost seven of their last eight games, scoring three runs or fewer in all seven losses. Their lead over the Cubs is down to 1/2 game. The Nationals won eight of their last ten games, scoring six runs or more five times.

Danny Duffy and Michael Fulmer butt heads for the second start in a row, this time with the Royals visiting the Tigers. Duffy came out on top last time as he allowed four runs in five innings, but Fulmer gave up eight runs, five earned in 2 2/3 innings. Both are much better pitchers than that game indicates.

Seattle tries to make it two in a row against Boston as Drew Pomeranz faces Felix Hernandez. Pomeranz owns a much better ERA on the road than at home, despite a better set of three-true outcomes at home. It seems to be just luck, as the opposition is hitting .200 against with runners in scoring position at home, .209 on the road. Hernandez looked like the King again over his last three starts. That return to form would do wonders to help Seattle’s playoff chances.

Enjoy!

July 20, 2017

Games of the Day

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As it appears more and more likely the Dodgers will never lose another game, the Diamondbacks look to cement their wild card slot. They play the Reds with Taijuan Walker facing Luis Castillo. Walker does a very good job of keeping the ball in the park, especially on the road. He allowed just three home runs in 43 1/3 innings away from Phoenix. The rookie Castillo strikes out batters at a very good clip, but walks and home runs need work. Luckily for him, most of the home runs he allowed were solo shots, and opponents are just 2 for 22 against him with runners in scoring position.

Pittsburgh goes for a sweep of the first place Brewers and their fifth straight win. The Pirates scored no more than four runs in each of the four wins, won all games by one or two runs, and walked off twice. Jimmy Nelson takes on Jameson Taillon. Nelson pitched great since the start of May, 7-2 in 14 starts with a 2.59 ERA. He’s striking out over 10 batters per nine innings pitched, while walking just two per nine. Taillon allowed four of his five home runs with men on base this season.

Despite Detroit staring to sell, the Tigers are still in the AL Central race as they send Michael Fulmer against the Royals and Danny Duffy. In his second season, Fulmer is now 21-13 in his career, a .618 winning percentage, with a 3.06 ERA. He does not blow batters away, but he does a good job limiting walks and home runs. Duffy owns a 2.41 ERA at home this season, but is just 2-3 in six starts.

Enjoy!

July 9, 2017

Games of the Day

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Brad Peacock and J.A. Happ square off in Toronto as the Astros and Blue Jays prepare for the All-Star break. Peacock makes his ninth start of the season to go with 12 relief appearances. As a starter, he struck out 58 in in 39 1/3 innings, but walked 22. With only one home run allowed in those innings, the walks are not hurting him much. Happ is a bit of the opposite. He’s allowed nine home runs in 57 innings, but just 11 walks, so the home runs have not hurt him much.

David Price tries to help Boston to a split against Price’s old team, the Rays. Chris Archer takes the mound for Tampa Bay. Price pitched eight inning shutouts the last two times he faced the Rays, although his overall ERA against his old team is not that impressive. Price also appears to have turned a corner, getting his walks under control in his last three starts. Archer had little success against the Red Sox in his career, 2-11 in seventeen starts with a 5.14 ERA. He walked 50 Boston batters in 89 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers try to put the finishing touches on their best in the majors pre-break record as the Royals send Danny Duffy against Clayton Kershaw. Duffy is one of the few pitchers keeping the ball in the park this season, with just four home runs allowed in 74 1/3 innings. That’s a big turnaround from the 27 he allowed in 2016 in 179 2/3 innings. Kershaw already set a single season high for home runs allowed with 17. It’s only hurt a little, as his 2.19 ERA is his highest in a season since 2012.

Finally, the last game before the break features the last place Tigers and Michael Fulmer against the first place Indians and Corey Kluber. Fulmer’s ERA is a little higher than during his rookie year, but he improved both his walk and home run rates. Kluber dazzled at home this season with 81 K in just 55 1/3 innings, with just 14 walks.

Enjoy!

June 29, 2017

Michael Fulmer Laughs at Your Juiced Ball

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Michael Fulmer allows three runs, two earned, in 8 2/3 innings Thursday afternoon as Detroit beats Kansas City 7-3. Fulmer did not allow a run until the ninth inning, and did not allow a home run in the game. He has now allowed just four home runs in 101 2/3 innings. That will keep him best in the majors among ERA qualifiers at 0.35 HR per nine innings.

Fulmer did change his pitch mix this season, throwing more sinking fastballs and fewer four-seam fastballs. His ground ball and fly ball rates stayed about the same, but the number of fly balls going for home runs is down. Whatever the reason, Fulmer is bucking the trend of higher home run rates.

June 17, 2017

Games of the Day

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The White Sox and Blue Jays start the day off on a good note with Mike Pelfrey battling Marcus Stroman. Pelfrey’s strength lies in his walk rate, but in June he issued eight free passes in just 10 innings. Stroman already has two complete games under his belt in 2017. His low walk and strikeout rates means he doesn’t go deep into counts, so he can stay in the game longer. He threw 100 and 99 pitches in his complete games, striking out nine and walking three in the 18 innings.

Two evenly matched starters take the mound in Detroit as Tampa Bay send Chris Archer against Michael Fulmer. Archer’s 3.80 ERA is out of whack with his excellent three true outcomes. FanGraphs has him with a much lower FIP and xFIP. He does allow higher offensive averages with runners in scoring position. Fulmer’s ERA lies right between his FIP and xFIP. He appears to be benefiting from his fly balls allowed not carrying out of the park.

Washington tries to make it three for three in their series against the Mets as Stephen Strasburg faces Seth Lugo. Strasburg comes off his worst start of 2017 in which he allowed six runs to the Braves. He walked one and struck out 10 in five innings, but allowed three home runs. Strasburg pitched very well as a guest of the Mets, 6-1 in eight games with a 1.97 ERA and 12.5 K per 9 IP. Lugo has now pitched 71 career innings, owning a 2.54 ERA. He walked just 23 batters in those 71 innings.

Enjoy!

June 2, 2017

Games of the Day

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The White Sox and Tigers battle in a very close AL Central as Derek Holland faces Michael Fulmer. Holland’s 2.37 ERA is almost entirely attributable to his success with men on base. He keeps putting himself in bad situations with a .364 OBP with no one on base, but then induces a .167/.248/.278 slash line once men are on. Fulmer did not allow a home run in May, helping him to a 2.19 ERA in the month.

The continuing battle of Texas pits Houston ace Dallas Keuchel against Texas ace Yu Darvish. Keuchel goes for his ninth win without a loss, thanks to a great Astros offense and a 1.81 ERA. He is simply not allowing batters to reach base, as they generate a .242 OBP against him. Basically, Keuchel turns major league batters into pitchers who hit pretty well. Darvish strikes out more batters than Keuchel, but also allows more walks and home runs, so his ERA is just an excellent 2.97.

Finally, Stephen Strasburg leads the Nationals into Oakland to face Andrew Triggs. Strasburg stayed healthy so far this season, and his high strikeout rate, low walk and home run rates make him a Cy Young contender. He is pitching better on the road, 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA. Triggs doesn’t have as good an offense behind him, so his 2.64 ERA is only good for a 5-4 record.

Enjoy!

May 22, 2017

Games of the Day

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It’s a worst versus a first as the Royals travel to New York to play the Yankees. Jason Vargas takes on Michael Pineda. Vargas pitched his worst outing of the season his last time out, challenging the Yankees in Kansas City. Despite the six runs allowed in that game, his ERA stands at 2.03. He’s allowed just two home runs in 48 2/3 innings. Pineda has that same ERA when he pitches in Yankee Stadium this year. In 26 2/3 home innings he walked three and struck out 32.

The Tigers travel to Houston to take on the best team in the AL, the Astros. Michael Fulmer faces Brad Peacock. Fulmer, with a 5-1 mark this season, is now 16-8 on his career. He’s doing a good job of repeating his rookie year, with similar walk and strikeout rate, and a bit better home run rate. Peacock makes his first start of the season. In 16 1/3 innings over 12 relief appearances he owns a 1.10 ERA, with 22 K making up for 10 walks.

Enjoy!

May 5, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Yankees travel to Wrigley Field to face the Cubs as Michael Pineda takes on Kyle Hendricks. Pineda pitches well in terms of walks and strikeouts, with 37 K and 4 BB in 28 2/3 innings. He allowed five home runs, however. All of those came with the bases empty, however, and he has yet to allow an extra base hit with men on base. Hendricks owns an ERA two runs higher than his 2.13 mark from last season. Both his walk and home run rates are way up. He allowed 15 home runs in 190 innings in 2016, five so far in 28 innings this season.

Two surprisingly good teams clash in Baltimore as the White Sox send Miguel Gonzlaez against his former team, the Orioles, and Wade Miley. Gonzalez had some problems on the road this season, opponents batting .338/.381/.481 against him. Miley bends but doesn’t break, as he walked 19 in 31 innings, but only allowed 20 hits.

Lance Lynn leads the Cardinals into Atlanta to check out the new stadium there. Mike Foltynewicz stands in their way. Lynn’s low ERA comes from a combination of a low overall OBP, .286, and a low BA allowed with runners in scoring position, .176. It’s not immediately obvious why Foltynewicz’s ERA is so much lower this season than in the past. His FIP is much higher than his ERA, and the only change in his pitching is a slightly elevated use of the slider. Foltynewicz is doing something different, as batters have a hard time squaring up the ball this season.

Finally, Michael Fulmer faces Andrew Triggs as the Tigers play in Oakland. Fulmer is tough to hit, with a .198 BA allowed this season. That makes his 3.19 ERA seem high, but that BA rises to .250 with runners in scoring position, and he allowed four home runs. Triggs cut down on his home runs allowed compared to his first season in 2016. He allowed five homers in 56 1/3 innings last season, 1 in 29 1/3 innings this year.

While not a great pitching match-up, the Diamondbacks visit the Rockies as those two team battle for the NL West title.

Enjoy!

April 29, 2017

Games of the Day

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The White Sox try to extend their winning streak to six games as Derek Holland faces the Tigers and Michael Fulmer. Holland posted a 4.93 ERA from 2015-2016, but so far in 2017 it stands at 1.99. That three-run drop appears to be partly due to a rise in his K rate and a drop in his home run rate. His FIPs, however are much closer to the previous two seasons. Fulmer avoided the sophomore slump so far, raising his strikeout game with 23 K in his first 25 IP of 2017. A right-handed pitcher, he owns left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .138/.200/.200 slash line.

The Phillies continue their series with the Dodgers as Zach Eflin tries to work his magic against Brandon McCarthy. Eflin allowed a home run about every five innings in his 2016 rookie campaign. He allowed just one in 12 innings so far this year. McCarthy is keeping batters off base with a .289 OBP allowed. Couple that with opponents going just 2 for 11 with runners in scoring position, and McCarthy owns a 2.25 ERA.

Enjoy!

November 14, 2016

AL Rookie

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Tyler Naquin is one of the three finalists for the Jackie Robinson AL Rookie of the Year Award, but the consensus appears to be that Michael Fulmer or Gary Sanchez will get the nod. My problem with Sanchez is that the league did not have a chance to adjust to Sanchez. If we saw Sanchez for a full year, he might have been unbelievable, but he might have slipped some, too. He did have a large fall-off from August to September, so another month or two and his stats might have been less impressive. I would vote for Fulmer.

Update: Fulmer wins easily with 26 first place votes. Sanchez received the other four first place votes. Congratulations to Fulmer on the win!

Update: Here is the vote. Fulmer appeared on all 30 ballots, Sanchez made it on 29.

November 14, 2016

Great Season, No Reward

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The Hardball Times looks at the best seasons that did not produce an MVP. No surprise, Ted Williams‘s 1941 effort is number one. Award season kicks off tonight with the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award. The AL and NL winners receive the news on MLB Network at 6 PM EST. Corey Seager and Michael Fulmer are the favorites, with an expectation that Seager will be a unanimous choice. According to FanGraphs, Gary Sanchez produced a higher WAR than Michael Fulmer. It will be interesting. I would probably go with Fulmer and the larger sample size.

September 23, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Yankees start a four-game series in Toronto as Bryan Mitchell takes on Francisco Liriano. The Yankees are in need of a sweep of the Friday-Monday four game series if they want to make the post-season. Mitchell shutout Toronto in his first start of the season on 9/7, but pitched poorly since. Liriano found his control after moving from the Pirates to the Blue Jays, but allowed seven home runs in 37 innings.

Danny Duffy and the Royals try to throw a road block in front of the Tigers playoff push against Michael Fulmer. Duffy owns a 4.15 ERA in September. He is allowing a ton of hits despite striking out 32 batters in 26 innings. Fulmer also hit a wall in September with a 5.50 ERA. He allowed three home runs in his last 18 innings.

A Rangers win or a Houston loss gives the Rangers the AL West title. Cole Hamels goes for his 15th win against the Athletics and Kendall Graveman. Hamels owns the road with a 9-3 record and 2.57 ERA. Graveman induces contact. He owns low walk and strike out rates. Unfortunately for him, that contact often leads to home runs.

Enjoy!

September 16, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Tigers stand six games behind the Indians with seven head-to-head games between the two clubs. Detroit visits Cleveland for the a three-game set with Michael Fulmer facing Corey Kluber. With the game tonight, Fulmer will have made two thirds of his starts on the road, where he owns an 8-4 record and a 2.68 ERA. He hasn’t won much lately, as the Tigers scored three runs or less in five of his last seven starts. Kluber turned his record around from last season, going 9-16 in 2015, 16-9 in 2016. He owns the best ERA in the American League since the All-Star break.

Max Scherzer tries to solidify his Cy Young credentials as the Nationals take on the Braves and John Gant. Scherzer’s second-half surge is due to him bringing home runs under control. He allowed 21 HR in his first 127 2/3 innings, just five HR in his last 76 IP (since the All-Star break). That lowered his ERA about 0.6 runs. Rookie Gant owns great strikeout and good walk numbers, but allowed six home runs in his first 43 innings.

Finally, the Cardinals try to even their series with the Giants as Luke Weaver battles Matt Moore. This is a big start for the rookie Weaver, as the Cardinals are one game behind the Mets for the second wild card, and two games behind the Giants for the first slot. Like Gant, Weaver shows great control, but is a little too generous giving up home runs, five in 31 innings. Moore allowed two runs or less in five of his eight starts since joining the Giants.

Enjoy!

September 9, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Boston Red Sox travel to Toronto to begin the first of two three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays as the AL East stretch battle begins. Boston sends Rick Porcello to the mound against Marco Estrada, the Red Sox leading the division by one game over the Blue Jays. Porcello tries to become the first 20-game winner in the major leagues this season. His 3.23 ERA is by far the best of his career, and he should accumulate the most innings pitched in a season by the end of the year. He improved his control greatly in 2016, walking just 28 batters in 186 2/3 innings. Estrada pitched well against the Red Sox this season, 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts. He walked just six batters in 21 innings.

Clayton Kershaw returns from the disabled list to lead the Dodgers against the Marlins and Jose Fernandez. Despite not pitching since the end of June, Kershaw still ranks 8th in the NL in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points, 0.4 points ahead of Jose Fernandez. That speaks to the greatness of Kershaw’s first half. While many thought the Dodgers would be finished without their ace, the Dodgers depth took hold, and they went 38-24, a .614 WPCT while Kershaw was out. That was second in the majors to the Cubs. Fernandez pitched into some bad luck this season. He excels at all three-true outcomes, but his ERA is about half a run higher than various FIPs predict.

Finally, the Orioles travel to Detroit, Baltimore leading the Tigers by one game for the second wild card slot. Kevin Gausman takes on Michael Fulmer. Gausman brings very good strikeout and walk numbers to the game, but he tends to allows lots of long balls. Given his home park, it’s surprising that 15 of his 23 home runs allowed came in road games, making him 1-9 on the road. Tigers fans have not seen Fulmer much, as 15 of his 22 games came on the road. His opposition batting stats are almost identical home and away, however.

Enjoy!

August 19, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Pirates and Marlins rank third and fourth respectively in the NL Wild Card race, separated by one game. The meet in Pittsburgh as Tom Koehler takes on Gerrit Cole. Koehler pitched well since the All-Star Break, posting a 2.19 ERA. He walked 10 and struck out 32 in 37 innings in that time frame. Cole comes into the game with just three home runs allowed in 102 1/3 innings. That’s the lowest rate in the majors for pitchers with at least 100 IP.

Division leaders meet in Cleveland as Toronto sends Francisco Liriano against Trevor Bauer. Liriano pitched poorly for Pittsburgh, posting an ERA well over 5.00 with too many walks and home runs allowed. His ERA is still very high with Toronto, as he allowed two home runs in 11 2/3 innings. The four walks allowed is not that bad. Bauer gives up more power at home, opponents slugging .416 against him in Cleveland, .349 on the road.

Rick Porcello goes for his 17th win as the Red Sox face Detroit and rookie sensation Michael Fulmer. Porcello pitched for the Tigers from 2009 through 2014, his last year there setting his previous high in wins, 15. He’s striking out batters at a much higher rate than in that season. Fulmer makes just his sixth start at home, compared to 14 on the road. He owns a 1.41 ERA so far in Detroit.

Tanner Roark of the Nationals and Julio Teheran of the Braves face each other with identical 2.81 ERAs. Roark, pitching for a good team, is 13-6. Teheran, pitching for a bad team, is 3-9. Here is a side-by-side comparison. Teheran is better at striking out and walking batters, Roark is much better keeping the ball in the park. This is one of the best examples of wins and losses being as much a team stat as a pitcher stat.

Finally, I’m on my way to Denver for the Saturday night game between the Cubs and Rockies. They get things started this evening with Kyle Hendricks taking on Tyler Anderson. Kendricks pitched twice at Coors, with one good start and one poor one. He has yet to allow a home run there in 12 1/3 innings. True rookie Anderson makes his 13th start overall and ninth at home. He owns a 3.04 ERA at Coors, with 46 K and 13 BB in 50 1/3 home innings. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher, and that’s working for him so far.

Enjoy!

August 15, 2016 August 14, 2016

Fulmer for Cy

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Micheal Fulmer pitched himself into Cy Young contention Sunday afternoon with a shutout against the Texas Rangers. Fulmer dominated the AL West leaders, allowing four hits and no walks while he struck out nine. He lowered his ERA to 2.25. He now pitched enough innings to qualify for the AL ERA title by over half a run. He picks up 6.4 Tom Tango Cy Young tracker points, which will put him within four points of AL lead Cole Hamels. I could be a multiple award year for the Detroit rookie The Tigers win 7-0.

August 8, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Giants visit the Marlins with Johnny Cueto facing Jose Fernandez. Left-handed batters hit Cueto better than right-handers, but they don’t hit Cueto well. Lefties own a .255/.303/.365 slash line this year against Cueto. Fernandez goes for his 13th win, which would give him a new single season high. He is 9-2 in Miami this season with a 2.11 ERA.

The Rangers head northwest to Colorado for an interleague series with the Rockies. Cole Hamels takes on Tyler Anderson. Hamels made five starts at Coors with the Phillies. His first one was poor, but since then he allowed 7 runs in 28 1/3 innings for a 2.22 ERA. Anderson, a rookie, is another Rockies pitcher who handles Coors well. So far, he is 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in his home park, walking 10 and striking out 41 in 43 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Tigers lead the Mariners by 3 1/2 games in the wild card race (3rd and fourth place respectively) as Michael Fulmer leads Detroit against Hisashi Iwakuma of Seattle. Fulmer is a leading rookie of the year candidate as he goes for his 10th win of the season. He comes into the game with a 2.42 ERA. He held Seattle to one run in 4 1/3 innings in his first start against them. Iwakuma improved since the All-Star games, 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts. He cut down on his home runs, allowing two since the break after giving up 18 dingers in his first 18 starts.

Enjoy!

August 3, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Rangers series with the Orioles as Cole Hamels faces Kevin Gausman. Hamels goes for his 20th win since joining the Rangers at the 2015 trade deadline. He is 19-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts for Texas. In terms of three-true outcomes, Gausman is very good at striking out batters and preventing walks. He is very poor, however, at keeping the ball in the park. He owns the eighth highest HR per 9 IP in the majors among pitchers with 100 IP.

Chris Sale tries to become the first American League pitcher to reach 15 wins. He leads the White Sox against the Tigers and rookie of the year candidate Michael Fulmer. Sale split his wins and losses, 7-2 both home and away, but with a 2.15 ERA on the road. He’s allowed just four of his 17 home runs away. Fulmer’s 2.50 ERA has a lot to do with the timing of the hits against him, as he allowed a .175 BA with men in scoring position.

Finally, if Sale fails to win fifteen, Rick Porcello gets his chance to accomplish the goal as the Red Sox battle the Mariners and Hisashi Iwakuma. This is the fourth season Porcello won at least 14 games. A win would match his high from 2014. He walked just 24 batters this season in 135 innings. Iwakuma is not getting batters to hit ground balls this season. For his career, he allowed GB 48% of the time, this year he is down to 40%.

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July 6, 2016

Games of the Day

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The best match-up of the day is also the first one as Michael Fulmer and the Tigers face Josh Tomlin and the Tigers in a 12:15 EDT start. Fulmer is on a roll, allowing just three runs in his last eight starts, never more than one in a game. Two of those were on solo homers. He struck out 48 and allowed just 23 hits. Tomlin goes for his tenth win. He allowed 19 home runs in 95 1/3 innings, but 13 were solo shots. That in part due to allowing just 10 walks on the season.

The Orioles send Kevin Gausman against Dodgers and Bud Norris in an afternoon game in Los Angeles. Gausman is Mr. No-Decision this season, 1-6 in 14 starts. He should be better at home, where he is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA in six starts. He’s 0-5 on the road thanks to a 5.02 ERA, and nine of his 14 home runs. Norris makes his second Dodgers start, throwing six shutout innings in his first one. He has not allowed a run in his last 14 1/3 innings.

Martin Perez and Steven Wright battle as Texas and Boston finish their series. Perez owns a 3.39 ERA despite his walks (44) and strikeouts (51) being very close. Despite the low strikeout rate, he is not allowing many hits, holding opponents to a .259 BA. Wright’s records at home and on the road do not reflect his ERAs. He is 5-1 at Fenway with a 3.02 ERA, but 4-4 on the road with a 1.88 ERA. The Red Sox scored at least five runs in six of his home starts.

Enjoy!