Tag Archives: William Contreras

October 12, 2025

Best Batter Today

Michael Busch of the Cubs ended his season by joining the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He recorded an outstanding 2025 post season, with a .296/.387/.741 slash line, hitting four home runs in 31 plate appearances. He now ranks fourth. The other members of the top five in order at the end of the LDS round are Aaron Judge of the Yankees, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners, George Springer of the Blue Jays, and Juan Soto of the Mets.

Three hitters tied for highest game score of the day with a 57. William Contreras and Andrew Vaughn of the Brewers, along with Seiya Suzuki of the Cubs went one for four with a home run in a game where all the runs came on solo shots. Brice Turang shared that line as well, but struck out once lowering his score to 56.

October 11, 2025

Oh! Contreras

William Contreras put the Brewers on the board early with a two-out home run in the bottom of the first inning off Drew Pomeranz of the Cubs. It’s the first hit and run Pomeranz allowed this post-season. The Brewers lead 1-0 at the end of the first inning.

Three of Contreras’s six post-season hits went for extra bases.

August 28, 2025

Best Batter Today

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals leads Corey Seager of the Rangers by 0.7 points in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, both teams winning blowout games on Wednesday. Witt went two for four with two RBI in a 12-1 win over the White Sox for first place. Seager slugged a home run as part of a two for two with a walk in a 20-3 win over the Angels. Both slugging shortstops left the game early for some rest.

Don’t count Witt out of the MVP race in the AL, especially if a surging Royals make the playoffs. He is not that far behind Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh in fWAR.

George Springer of the Blue Jays sits in third place after a two for four with a walk in a 9-8 comeback win over the Twins. HIs walk in the eighth inning helped set up the winning rally.

Christian Yelich and William Contreras of the Brewers rank fourth and fifth respectively after a 3-2 Diamondbacks win. Yelich doubled in four trips to the plate, and Contreras homered.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Rafael Devers of the Giants, a 94. That gives the 2025 season 21 games score of at least 90. Devers posted a four for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs in the 12-3 win over the Cubs. Despite this game, Devers Giants tenure looks like a disappointment. Compare to his time in Boston this season, his walks are down, his strikeouts are up, and his .226/.335/.407 slash line pales in comparison to his .272/.401/.504 line with the Red Sox. Maybe yesterday was the day Devers turned things around.

August 27, 2025

Best Batter Today

The top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remains extremely close with three points separating Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals in first from William Contreras of the Brewers in fifth. George Springer of the Blue Jays sprung into third place with the best game score of the day, an 83. He went four for five with two home runs in a 7-5 comeback win by the Twins. Springer’s .388 OBP would be the best single season makr of his career.

Witt went one for five in a 5-4 comeback win for the Royals, all five runs coming in the eighth and ninth inning after Martin Perez of the White Sox pitched one-hit ball for seven innings.

Contreras posted a big night, three for five with a double and a home run in a 9-8 win over the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee blew a 6-0 lead, but Contreras’ single in the ninth, along with a walk by Christian Yelich, helped set up the game winning sacrifice fly in th ninth. Yelich sits in second place after a two for four to go along with the walk. Their teammate, Brice Turang now holds fourth place after a home run and a walk in the game. The top of the Brewers batting order is on fire.

August 20, 2025

Best Batter Today

Braves now rank one and two in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Michael Harris II stayed on top with a home run in five plate appearances in an 11-10 win over the White Sox. He leads teammate Matt Olson by 0.78 points after Olson went four for five with two doubles in the game. His 72 was the eight highest game score of the day.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals sits in third place after hitting a home run in four PA in a 5-2 win over the Rangers. The Royals are surging, now just 2 1/2 games out of the third wild card slot. They are 26-15 since July 1st, the third best record in the majors behind the Brewers and Blue Jays, and tied with the Red Sox. In that same game, Corey Seager of the Rangers went one for three with a home run and a HBP to take fourth place.

William Contreras of the Brewers ranks fifth. He went two for eight in the double header sweep by the Cubs. Chicago is now seven games back of Milwaukee, keeping their division hopes alive.

The best game score of the day belonged to Cody Bellinger of the Yankees, an 84. He went four for five with two home runs in a 13-3 pounding of the Rays. He was one of three Yankees players in the game to go deep twice, and New York tied a franchise record with nine home runs. Aaron Judge hit his 40th home run of the season, giving him five seasons with at least 40 homers. (He hit 39 in 2021.) After a long rain delay, Judge, Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton hit consecutive homers in the first inning. The win puts New York at the top of the wild card standings in the AL.

August 19, 2025

Best Batter Today

The 2025 season keeps producing oddities. At the moment, then points separate one from fifteen in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Usually, a few players dominate. They wax and wane through the season, but the top churns slowly. Right now, it seems there is a new player at the top frequently, and today we awake to Michael Harris II of the Braves in the number one slot. Harris went four for four with a home run in a 13-9 White Sox win. 7/11Was a lucky day for Harris as he started a 33 game tear that resulted in a .396/.409/.716 slash line. He is currently on an eleven game hit streak in which he collected multiple hits in nine of the games. His teammate, Jurickson Profar posted the highest game score of the day, an 82. He went three for three with a walk and two home runs, driving in five. Harris came in third at 79. It’s impressive the Braves could lose a game with those two outstanding performances.

William Contreras and Christian Yelich of the Brewers rank second and fifth respectively after a 7-0 win over the Cubs. Both drew a walk in four trips to the plate, Yelich striking out three times to Contreras’s two.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals sits in third place after collecting a single and two walks in a 4-3 win over the Rangers. His teammate, Maikel Garcia moved into fourth place with a two for four, including a home run. He’s batting .302/.363/.473 on the season. At seasonal age 25, he matured into an excellent hitter.

August 18, 2025

Best Batter Today

William Contreras and Christian Yelich flipped the top two spots in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Contreras homered and drove in both runs in the 3-2, ten inning Reds win that stopped the Brewers winning streak at 14 games. Yelich posted an 0 for 4 to drop to second place.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went two for four with a home run in a 10-4 Rangers win to take third place. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals moved into fourth place with a single and a walk in a 6-2 win over the White Sox.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners moved back into the top five with a two for five, including his 47th home run of the season. The Mets took the game 7-3. There is a story that Raleigh is one away from Salvador Perez‘s record for a catcher, 48 in 2021. I don’t buy that record, as it is HR in a season primarily as a catcher. Perez hit 15 home runs as a designated hitter that year. Raleigh hit nine as a designated hitter this season.

Only five seasons saw catchers hit at least 40 home runs, Javy Lopez holding the record at 42.

Jordan Westburg of the Orioles posted the highest game score of the day, an 80. He went four for five with a home run and five RBI in a 12-0 win over the Astros. In his third year in the majors, power continues to be his strength as he owns a .198 isolated power. He only managed 72 games this season due to hamstring and finger injuries.

August 17, 2025

Best Batter Today

Bobby Witt Jr of the Royals and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers returned to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Witt ranks third and went one for four in a 6-2 win over the White Sox. Ohtani ranks fifth after a one for two with two walks in a 6-0 win over the Padres. Los Angeles takes a one game lead in the NL West.

Christian Yelich and William Contreras of the Brewers remained one-two respectively. Yelich drew an intentional walk in 5 PA, while Contreras went two for five in a 6-5, eleven inning win over the Reds. Andruw Monasterio hit a three-run homer in the top of the 11th inning for the game winner. Milwaukee extended their win streak to 14 games,

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians ranks fourth. He went 0-3 in a 10-1 Braves win. The Guardians drop to 8 1/2 games out of first place in the AL Central and 2 1/2 games back in the Wild Card race,

The best game score of the game belonged to Myles Straw of the Blue Jays, an 87. He posted a four for five with two home runs from the eighth slot in a 14-2 rout of the Rangers. Straw needed a big game as he is hitting just .260/.303/.363 on the season. He had not reached base in his previous six appearances.

August 16, 2025

Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich of the Brewers posted a game score of 89 in a 10-8 win over the Reds. That four for five with a double and two home runs sent him soaring to the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as Milwaukee wins their 13th game in a row. The hottest team in the majors owns the top two players in the rankings as William Contreras went one for five with a double and ranks second. Through May 21, Yelich and the now injured Jackson Chourio were doing little for the team. Both were out machines. Since then, Yelich is hitting like an MVP and Chourio isn’t far behind. Contreras has been consistent with his bat throughout the season.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians sits in third place after an 0 for 4 in a 2-0 Braves win. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners posted a two for six with two doubles to in an 11-9 win over the Mets to rank fourth. Seattle now trails Houston by 1/2 game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays ranks fifth after collecting a double a walk in a 6-5 win over the Rangers. It’s his fourth consecutive season of at least 30 doubles.

Ten points separate one through seven, so expect more churn at the top.

August 15, 2025

Best Batter Today

Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners breaks into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a one for three, including a hit by pitch and a home run in a 5-3 Orioles win. That puts him in third place. Since July 12th, he’s been collecting hits in bunches with multiple hits in 13 of his 28 games, plus twelve home runs in that span.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians returned to first place with a three for four in a 9-4 win over the Marlins. The Guardians stand 6 1/2 games out of the division lead, but only 1/2 game out of the wild card. William Contreras of the Brewers and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rank second and fifth respectively. Their teams were idle on Thursday.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays ranks fourth as he homered and drove in both runs in a 2-1 win over the Cubs. Toronto leads Boston by five games in the AL East.

The best game score of the day belonged to Ozzie Albies of the Braves, a 74. He went three for four with a double and a home run in a 4-3 win over the Mets. His RBI double in the 8th sealed the victory for Atlanta. It was a big night in a very down years for the veteran second baseman.

August 14, 2025

Best Batter Today

2 Replies

William Contreras of the Brewers tops the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he continued his onslaught* Wednesday. He went two for three with two walks and four RBI in the 12-5 win over the Pirates, Milwaukee’s twelfth win in a row. That raised his OBP to .362 for the season. He now owns a five-game hit streak, with multiple hits in his last four games.

*Not to be confused with Don Slaught.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians drops to second place after a one for three in a 13-4 Marlins win. In that game, Jakob Marsee of the Marlins posted the highest game score of the day, a 91. That was the 20th game score of at least 90 in 2025. Marsee went four for five with a double and two home runs, driving in seven runs along the way. Thirteen games into his career, Marsee owns a .436/.542/.872 slash line, with ten of his seventeen hits going for extra bases. In the minors, Marsee’s strength was his ability to get on base. His BA and power numbers were okay. We’ll see how long this lasts.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays sits in third place after a one for four with a double in a 4-1 Cubs win. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers ranks fourth, as he tripled and walked in a 6-5 Angels win. He now owns eight triples on the season, The third time he reached that level in a season. One more gives him a new single season high.

Corey Seager of the Rangers rounds out the top five. He went 0 for 5 in a 6-4 Diamondbacks win.

August 13, 2025

Best Batter Today

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians posted the second highest game score of the day, an 81, to reclaim the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Ramirez produced an extra good night as he collected a double and two home runs in a 4-3 win over the Marlins. Coupled with the White Sox downing the Tigers 9-6, Cleveland is now just 5 1/2 games out of first place in the AL Central.

Corey Seager of the Rangers sits in second place after an 0 for 4 in a 3-2 Diamondbacks win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays ranks third, propelled by a three for four in a 5-1 win over the Cubs.

William Contreras of the Brewers took fourth place after the Brewers tagged Pirates starter Paul Skenes for four runs in four innings and go on to a 14-0 rout. Contreras singled twice and walked once. In his last fourteen games Contreras is hitting .375/.462/.750.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers brushes aside his latest scandal as he homered and drew two walks against his former team, but the Angels win 7-6. Ohtani raised his slugging percentage to .629.

Francisco Alvarez of the Mets posted the highest game score of the day, an 82 going three four for with a double and two home runs in a 13-5 win over the Braves. (The difference between Alvarez and Ramriez comes from Alvarez driving in two more runs and striking out one time to none.) Alvarez is having a good season getting on base, with a .347 mark. With the three extra-base hits, however, he is only slugging .414.

August 11, 2025

Best Batter Today

The Phillies 4-2 win over the Rangers featured the top two hitters in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Corey Seager of the Rangers drew two walks in four trips to the plate to remain in first place, while Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies drew one BB in his four PA to hold second place. Both have OBPs for the season of at least .370.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays sits in third place after a two for four with a double and a home run in a 5-4 win over the Dodgers. Guerrero is now slugging .488 on the season. He got off to a poor start in power this year, but is slugging .585 since June 14th. The Blue Jays are 31-19 in that time frame.

The injured Jackson Chourio of the Brewers ranks fourth, but his teammate, William Contreras posted the best game score of the day on Sunday, an 80. He went three for four with a double and two home runs in a 7-6, comeback, walk-off win over the Mets. The Brewers win their ninth game in a row and lead the NL Central by six games. Contreras saw his power drop quite a bit this season, but kept his OBP up. Eight of his last fifteen hits went for extra bases, however, so he may be returning to form. That’s helping the Brewers absorb the Chourio injury.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians rounds out the top five after going 0 for 5 in a 6-4 White Sox win. He went two for his last 25 with two walks, but just three strikeouts. He is getting the bat on the ball, but not finding holes.

August 2, 2025

Best Batter Today

Friday brought more churn to the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians remained in first place after a one for four with a walk in a 3-2 win over the Twins, the Guardians now eight games out of first place in the AL Central. Corey Seager of the Rangers maintained second place despite an 0 for 4 in a 4-3 Mariners victory.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays moved into third place, one for four with a homer in a 9-3 Royals win. Jackson Chourio of the Brewers went on the illjured list, but now occupies fourth place. His teammate, William Contreras, tied for the highest game score of the day, however, an 82. He went five for seven with a double and a home run in a 16-9 win over the Nationals, one of three teams Friday night to score at least 16 runs, and one of five teams in double digits. Contreras does an excellent job this season of getting on base with a .356 mark, but is only slugging .382.

Manny Machado of the Padres occupied fifth place after a one for four in a 4-1 win over the Cardinals. The Padres recorded their sixth win in a row.

The other 82 came off the bat of Brenton Doyle of the Rockies. He went four for five with a walk and a home run in a good night for catchers. The Rockies won the game 17-16 over the Pirates. Note that teammate Ezequiel Tovar collected four doubles in the game.

May 20, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays took the day off on Monday, so Judge remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings and Guerrero ranks fourth. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers did play, and they rank second and fifth respectively. Ohtani hit his seventeenth home run of the season to take the MLB lead, while Freeman went one for four with a double in a 9-5 Diamondbacks win. Three games no separate the top four teams in the NL West as the Dodgers lost four in a row.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners went 0 for 4 in a 5-1 win over the White Sox and sits in third place. We should continue to see lots of churn in three through five as ten points separate three from thirteen, and ten points separate four from twenty five!

William Contreras of the Brewers posted the best game score of the day, a 79. He went four for four with a walk and two doubles in a 5-4 win over the Orioles. Contreras gets on base this season with a .370 OBP, a hallmark of his career. His power is down, however, as he slugs just .371 this season. Maybe the two doubles is a sign that things are picking up.

August 15, 2024

Power Surge

William Contreras of the Brewers continued his August heat with a two for four with a home run in a 6-4 against the Dodgers. After a weak July in which he slugged .395 on seven doubles and two home runs, he’s slugging .765, with 12 of his 15 hits going for extra bases; six doubles, a triple, and five home runs. That helped the Brewers to an 8-5 record in the month.

July 1, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Austin Gomber.
0.298 — William Contreras batting against Austin Gomber.
0.295 — Jose Iglesias batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
0.281 — Harold Ramirez batting against David Peterson.
0.281 — Brice Turang batting against Austin Gomber.
0.278 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
0.275 — Yainer Diaz batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
0.269 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Hunter Brown.
0.268 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Hunter Brown.
0.268 — Sal Frelick batting against Austin Gomber.

Here are the Brewers batters. While his power isn’t all the way back, Yelich is hitting closer to his 2018-2019 peak than any recent season. Contreras fell off quite a bit from his early season surge.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.295, 0.719 — Jose Iglesias batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.288, 0.708 — Jose Altuve batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
0.281, 0.706 — Harold Ramirez batting against David Peterson.
0.298, 0.706 — William Contreras batting against Austin Gomber.
0.300, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Austin Gomber.
0.275, 0.689 — Yainer Diaz batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
0.278, 0.688 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
0.262, 0.679 — Elias Diaz batting against Bryse Wilson.
0.256, 0.673 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Bryse Wilson.
0.281, 0.673 — Brice Turang batting against Austin Gomber.

The NN and I tend to disagree on Iglesias. He tends to bat way down in the batting order, meaning he’s unlikely to get the extra plate appearance that gives him a better chance of recording a hit. He is the consensus top pick, with Altuve, Contreras, and Yelich all tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 22, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.344 — Christian Yelich batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.342 — William Contreras batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.321 — Trea Turner batting against Tommy Henry.
0.320 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios.
0.319 — Luis Arraez batting against Carlos Rodriguez.
0.316 — Brice Turang batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.301 — Alec Bohm batting against Tommy Henry.
0.296 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.296 — Sal Frelick batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.295 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jon Gray.

The Brewers look good today as Vazquez owns both low strikeout and walk rates so batter put the ball in play against him. His opposition BABIP this season stands at .371.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.319, 0.752 — Luis Arraez batting against Carlos Rodriguez.
0.320, 0.738 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios.
0.321, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Tommy Henry.
0.342, 0.722 — William Contreras batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.296, 0.715 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.344, 0.714 — Christian Yelich batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.293, 0.706 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Zach Plesac.
0.295, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jon Gray.
0.284, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zach Plesac.
0.301, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Tommy Henry.

Kwan lost his hit streak on a base running mistake Friday.

There is some agreement between the two systems at that the top, with a different ordering. The Borda count on Arraez, Contreras, Kwan, and Turner all evaluate to six, so take your double down pick from those four. Kwan is four for seven against Berrios with no strikeouts.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top estimates of hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.335 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
0.298 — Jake Fraley batting against Ty Blach.
0.297 — William Contreras batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Andre Pallante.
0.288 — Jeremy Pena batting against Andre Pallante.
0.283 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Andre Pallante.
0.283 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Frankie Montas.
0.277 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Ty Blach.
0.275 — Christian Yelich batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.275 — Elias Diaz batting against Frankie Montas.
0.274 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Andre Pallante.

The Padres list Arraez as day to day after his shoulder injury on Sunday, so the top picks go out to eleven just in case Arraez can’t play. He is working on an eight-game hit streak, as is Jake Fraley.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.335, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
0.291, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Andre Pallante.
0.297, 0.701 — William Contreras batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.271, 0.694 — Steven Kwan batting against Seth Lugo.
0.288, 0.691 — Jeremy Pena batting against Andre Pallante.
0.260, 0.691 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jesus Luzardo.
0.283, 0.691 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Andre Pallante.
0.283, 0.691 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Frankie Montas.
0.298, 0.690 — Jake Fraley batting against Ty Blach.
0.260, 0.683 — Jose Iglesias batting against Trevor Williams.
0.263, 0.683 — Amed Rosario batting against Jesus Luzardo.

Arraez continues to post high probabilities and gets the unanimous number one pick. Altuve and Contreras tie for the double down choice. Those two would be the top choices if Arraez can’t play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.301 — Salvador Perez batting against Aaron Civale.
0.300 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Chris Paddack.
0.299 — Luis Arraez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.298 — Marcus Semien batting against Chris Paddack.
0.292 — Alec Bohm batting against Dakota Hudson.
0.291 — Corey Seager batting against Chris Paddack.
0.289 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Aaron Civale.
0.289 — Jonah Heim batting against Chris Paddack.
0.286 — Nico Hoerner batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.282 — Connor Wong batting against Colin Rea.

I like that catchers are making the list. Speed can be important in extending hit streaks, and catchers, especially veteran catchers tend to be slow. Perez, Heim, and Wong overcome that disadvantage. Perez hits Civale decently, 4 for 14 with a walk and two hit by pitches.

The NN provides this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.299, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.292, 0.705 — Alec Bohm batting against Dakota Hudson.
0.301, 0.699 — Salvador Perez batting against Aaron Civale.
0.274, 0.694 — Jose Altuve batting against JP Sears.
0.269, 0.693 — William Contreras batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.279, 0.690 — Jeremy Pena batting against JP Sears.
0.262, 0.689 — Harold Ramirez batting against Brady Singer.
0.289, 0.689 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Aaron Civale.
0.268, 0.687 — Amed Rosario batting against Brady Singer.
0.300, 0.686 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Chris Paddack.

The NN adds William Contreras to the catcher mix. To complete the catcher story, J.T. Realmuto owns a fourteen game hit streak, second longest in the majors right now.

Arraez is three for five against Stroman with a walk and no strikeouts. Arraez and Perez tie for the consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 21, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.334 — William Contreras batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.321 — Max Kepler batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.320 — Connor Wong batting against Zack Littell.
0.319 — Jose Miranda batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.315 — Willi Castro batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.306 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.304 — Brice Turang batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.302 — Ryan Jeffers batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.301 — Carlos Correa batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.299 — Jarren Duran batting against Zack Littell.

As usual, the team facing Patrick Corbin is expected to produce a number of hits. Contreras is in a little slump, one for his last 17.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of a hit:

0.297, 0.742 — Luis Arraez batting against Andrew Abbott.
0.334, 0.729 — William Contreras batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.306, 0.716 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.320, 0.705 — Connor Wong batting against Zack Littell.
0.294, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.285, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Griffin Canning.
0.282, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.292, 0.700 — Salvador Perez batting against Casey Mize.
0.290, 0.698 — Jeremy Pena batting against Griffin Canning.
0.282, 0.697 — Alec Bohm batting against Jonathan Gray.

Arraez hit in his last five games at a .417 clip. Contreras is the consensus top pick, Wong the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 19, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.320 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryce Elder.
0.317 — William Contreras batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
0.314 — Andres Gimenez batting against Chris Paddack.
0.312 — Jose Ramirez batting against Chris Paddack.
0.305 — Josh Naylor batting against Chris Paddack.
0.296 — Will Brennan batting against Chris Paddack.
0.296 — David Fry batting against Chris Paddack.
0.284 — Jose Altuve batting against Colin Rea.
0.284 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Williams.
0.283 — Jeremy Pena batting against Colin Rea.

Paddack, with an okay strikeout rate and a low walk rate allows a good amount of balls in play, and batters own a .387 BABIP against him. He also gave up seven homers in 42 1/3 innings. The Guardians batters as a group do not strike out much, so they are a very good match against the Twins starter.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of getting a hit in a game:

0.320, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryce Elder.
0.317, 0.721 — William Contreras batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
0.284, 0.706 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Williams.
0.284, 0.702 — Jose Altuve batting against Colin Rea.
0.279, 0.692 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.283, 0.690 — Jeremy Pena batting against Colin Rea.
0.312, 0.689 — Jose Ramirez batting against Chris Paddack.
0.305, 0.688 — Josh Naylor batting against Chris Paddack.
0.314, 0.688 — Andres Gimenez batting against Chris Paddack.
0.258, 0.687 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Hunter Greene.

The Padres and Braves were rained out on Saturday, so Arraez gets his .751 probability again. Elder doesn’t strike out many batters, so he plays into the hands of Arraez, who is great at putting the bat on the ball. Arraez and Contreras are the unanimous double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 19, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees posted a game score of 90 on Saturday, the highest of day and the seventh 90+ score of the season. His four for four with a walk and two home runs moves him within two points of his teammate, Aaron Judge, who remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge went one for four with a walk in the 6-1 win over the White Sox.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers went 0 for 4 as he batted lead off as his teammate, Mookie Betts, got a day off. Ohtani ranks third, Betts fifth.

William Contreras of the Brewers hit a three-run home in four trips to the plate to help beat the Astros 4-2. He remains in fourth place. He is first in BA, second in OBP, and fourth in slugging percentage in the NL. Combine that with a primary position of catcher, and Contreras is looking like a very good MVP candidate.

May 18, 2024

Best Batter Today

Friday’s games brought no change to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank first and third respectively. Judge homered and walked three times in the 4-2 win over the White Sox, while Soto went one for four with a double. Eight of Judge’s last ten hits went for extra bases.

Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts of the Dodgers rank second and fifth respectively. Both homered in the 7-3 win over the Reds, and Betts added a walk.

William Contreras of the Brewers drew a walk in four trips to the plate as the Astros continued their resurgence with a 5-4 win.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Nick Fortes of the Marlins, a 78. The light hitting catcher went three for three with a walk and a home run to help Miami shut out the Mets 8-0. He’s now slashing .159/.198/.256 for the season. He currently ranks 321st.

May 17, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

2 Replies

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.351 — William Contreras batting against Hunter Brown.
0.312 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.303 — Christian Yelich batting against Hunter Brown.
0.302 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.302 — Salvador Perez batting against Kyle Muller.
0.301 — Andy Ibanez batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.300 — Matt Vierling batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.298 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Frankie Montas.
0.294 — Brice Turang batting against Hunter Brown.
0.293 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kyle Muller.
0.293 — Alec Bohm batting against Jake Irvin.

Contreras currently owns a nine game hit streak, the second longest active streak in the majors. Batters produce a .423 BABIP against Brown, negating his high strikeout rate.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of a hit:

0.351, 0.742 — William Contreras batting against Hunter Brown.
0.260, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Fried.
0.298, 0.710 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Frankie Montas.
0.312, 0.709 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.302, 0.704 — Salvador Perez batting against Kyle Muller.
0.293, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Jake Irvin.
0.286, 0.697 — Mookie Betts batting against Frankie Montas.
0.293, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kyle Muller.
0.282, 0.696 — Harold Ramirez batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.287, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Bassitt.

Note the disconnect between the two systems when it comes to Arraez. Log5 sees a great pitcher like Fried limiting Arraez’s ability to produce a hit. The NN sees that Arraez is a great hitter, so his probability of getting a hit in a game is high even if he is facing a great pitcher. What Fried does is knock Arraez out of the top slot. By the way, Arraez is three for five with a walk, HBP, and a K against Fried.

The two systems agree on Contreras as the top pick, with Urshela the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 17, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees takes over the top spot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after going two for three with two doubles and a walk in a 5-0 win over the Twins. His teammate, Juan Soto, ranks third as he drew a walk in five trips to the plate.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers draws a walk on his bobble head night and drops to second place. His teammate, Mookie Betts, also draws a walk in the 7-2 Reds win, putting Betts in fifth place. The Brewers did not play as William Contreras remains in fourth place.

In the Reds win, Elly De La Cruz posted a perfect night at the plate, four for four with a double and a walk for a game score of 76, the best on the day. Cruz’s 2023 rookie season turned out to be a bit disappointing given the hype. Cruz turned that around in 2024, hitting for average, getting on base, and producing plenty of power. On top of that, his running game remains fantastic. He’s having a Rickey Henderson type season, something we haven’t seen for a very long time. Cruz now ranks 66th on the list.

May 16, 2024

Best Batter Today

The top players in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings fit the bill on Wednesday. Aaron Judge of the Yankees moved into second place as he posted the best game score of the day, an 88. He went four for four with a walk, three doubles, and a home run in a 4-0 win over the Twins. (One of six shutouts on the day.) His teammate, Juan Soto, doubled in five trips and now ranks third.

Right behind Soto is William Contreras of the Brewers who posted the fourth highest game score of the day, a 76. He went three for five with a triple and a home run to help beat the Pirates 10-2. He now owns a .359/.434/.553 slash line.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers remains in first place, with his teammate Mookie Betts in fifth. Both went two for four with a walk in a 4-1 Giants win.

Note that Bryce Harper, who ranks sixth, posted the fifth highest game score of the day, a 73, as he went three for five with a double and a home run in a 10-5 win over the Mets. Twenty two points separate first from sixth.

May 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.334 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Logan Webb.
0.325 — William Contreras batting against Martin Perez.
0.323 — Mookie Betts batting against Logan Webb.
0.322 — Luis Arraez batting against Austin Gomber.
0.317 — Thomas Pham batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.313 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.306 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.304 — Andy Ibanez batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.304 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.303 — Korey Lee batting against Patrick Corbin.

The top three on this list are also the top three in the NL batting race. Opponents own a .347 BABIP against Webb this season.

Gio Urshela came off the illjured list on Tuesday and returns to the top ten in the Log5 Method as well.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of getting a hit:

0.322, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Austin Gomber.
0.334, 0.729 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Logan Webb.
0.325, 0.725 — William Contreras batting against Martin Perez.
0.323, 0.718 — Mookie Betts batting against Logan Webb.
0.313, 0.709 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.300, 0.706 — Freddie Freeman batting against Logan Webb.
0.278, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against Aaron Brooks.
0.277, 0.693 — Alec Bohm batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.304, 0.689 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Trevor Rogers.
0.259, 0.688 — Harold Ramirez batting against Tanner Houck.
0.304, 0.688 — Andy Ibanez batting against Trevor Rogers.

The same top four in a different order. Both Ohtani and Betts hit Webb well, but Betts is based on a much bigger sample. Betts versus Webb is also a nice example of the Log5 Method working, as the actual hit average of the pair is .333 (9/27). Betts walked once against Webb and struck out twice, so the ball gets put in play.

Ohtani is the consensus top pick with Arraez and Contreras tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 15, 2024

Best Batter Today

Two Dodgers move up in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after Tuesday’s games. Shohei Ohtani hit a single, double, and home run in five plate appearances to move into first place. His teammate, Mookie Betts, singled and tripled to move back into the top five in fifth place. His triple was one of three in the game by the Dodgers, the second time a team hit three triples in a game this season. The Dodgers crushed the Giants 10-2.

Juan Soto of the Yankees fell to second place as he singled and walked in a 5-1 win over the Twins. His teammate, Aaron Judge, remains third as he posts the same line score. William Contreras of the Brewers ranks fourth. He goes one for four at home as his team downs the Pirates 4-3.

Andrew Vaughn of the White Sox posts the best game score of the day, a 79, as Chicago beats Washington in game two of the doubleheader 4-0. He hit two home runs and drew a walk in four trips to the plate, driving in three runs to support seven shutout innings by starter Erick Fedde. Vaughn started the season hitting poorly, but lately came around with a .346/.414/.808 slash line in his last seven games.

May 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.306 — Luis Arraez batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.298 — William Contreras batting against Quinn Priester.
0.292 — Juan Soto batting against Chris Paddack.
0.288 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Keaton Winn.
0.284 — Jon Berti batting against Chris Paddack.
0.283 — Adley Rutschman batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.283 — Jose Trevino batting against Chris Paddack.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Keaton Winn.
0.279 — Josh Rojas batting against Michael Wacha.
0.277 — Connor Wong batting against Aaron Civale.

It looks like it might be a good day for the Yankees against the Twins. The opposition owns a high BABIP against Paddack ever since he joined the Twins.

The NN selects these batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.306, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.298, 0.711 — William Contreras batting against Quinn Priester.
0.288, 0.701 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Keaton Winn.
0.271, 0.697 — Jose Altuve batting against JP Sears.
0.281, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Keaton Winn.
0.265, 0.690 — Harold Ramirez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.271, 0.687 — Jeremy Pena batting against JP Sears.
0.263, 0.685 — Freddie Freeman batting against Keaton Winn.
0.271, 0.681 — Luis Garcia batting against Chris Flexen.
0.266, 0.679 — Amed Rosario batting against Nick Pivetta.

The NN pulls in no Yankees, Soto walks so much, his three-year hit average is just .222. Most of his value as a hitter is outside his BA. Arraez faced Quantrill more than any other hitter, and the matchup favors the pitcher. Arraez is five for twenty three against Quantrill with two triples, one walk, and four strikeouts.

Arraez and Contreras are the unanimous double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!