Tag Archives: Alex Wood

May 6, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It looks like a good day for the Rangers. Wood walks a lot of batters, which should lead to fewer hits, but this season the BABIP against him stands at .412. It’s high for his career as well at .306.

The NN finds these players with a high probability of getting a hit:

  • 0.298, 0.740 — Luis Arraez batting against Justin Steele.
  • 0.276, 0.692 — Alec Bohm batting against Mason Black.
  • 0.266, 0.688 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.272, 0.684 — William Contreras batting against Cole Ragans.
  • 0.259, 0.682 — Harold Ramirez batting against Michael Clevinger.
  • 0.267, 0.681 — Amed Rosario batting against Michael Clevinger.
  • 0.282, 0.678 — Luis Rengifo batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.256, 0.676 — Mookie Betts batting against Roddery Munoz.
  • 0.257, 0.674 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.291, 0.673 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Alex Wood.

For the second day in a row Arraez and Bohm top this list. Bohm’s hitting streak stands at 18 games, Arraez is tied for third at eight games. They are the consensus 1-2 picks as well as the Rangers do much worse in the second analysis.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 22, 2023

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Red Sox send Justin Garza against the Twins and Joe Ryan in Minnesota. Garza makes the first start of his MLB career after 33 relief appearances. He did make 50 starts in the minors, but none above A ball. He is wild, with 5.2 walks per nine IP at the major league level, and this looks like it will be a bullpen game for Boston. Ryan, on the other hand, walked just 15 batters in 84 2/3 innings.

The Padres face the hot Giants once again with Blake Snell taking on Alex Wood. Snell owns a 3.11 ERA on the road in seven starts, but is just 0-2 in those games. Wood owns a 6.00 ERA at home, where he gave up all three of his 2023 home runs.

Enjoy!

May 31, 2023

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rays and Cubs finish up their low-scoring series with Zach Eflin facing Justin Steele. Eflin so far exceeds expectation with a 7-1 record and a 3.17 ERA. He’s walked just seven batters in 54 innings, lowering the impact of the eight home runs he allowed. Steele lowered his walk and home run rates this year, pulling his ERA down by 0.4 runs.

The Pirates send Mitch Keller against the Giants and Alex Wood. Keller improved his K rate greatly this season, mowing down 85 batters in 68 2/3 innings. Wood walked a ton of batters so far this season, 13 in 25 2/3 innings, but a .190 BA allowed with runners in scoring position helped him to a 3.51 ERA.

Enjoy!

April 11, 2023

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Garrett Whitlock of the Red Sox tries to end the Rays winning streak as he takes on Shane McClanahan. Whitlock makes his 2023 debut after posting very similar seasons in 2021 and 2022. Innings, hits, walks, and strikeouts were very close. He allowed then home runs in 2022 instead of the six from 2021, and that brought his ERA up a bit to a still respectable 3.45. McClanahan increased his innings from his rookie year of 2021, bringing his ERA down 0.9 runs thanks to a decreased walk rate. He allowed two runs in twelve innings this season.

Dustin May of the Dodgers faces Alex Wood of the Giants in a classic match-up of ancient rivals. May is off to a great start, allowing just five hits and one run in thirteen innings. At seasonal age 25 he’s already pitching in his fifth MLB season. Wood’s strikeout rate fell in 2022, but his rise in ERA seems more like bad luck. His FIPs were actually in line with his 2021 numbers.

Enjoy!

May 22, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Twins and Royals offer another good pitching match-up as Bailey Ober takes on Brady Singer. Ober dropped his ERA nearly a run and a half compared to his year in 2021 by cutting his home run rate in half. Singer makes his second start after three relief appearances. He pitched seven shutout innings in his first start five days ago.

Rookie MacKenzie Gore takes on Alex Wood as San Diego goes for a sweep in San Francisco. Gore, a left-handed pitcher, features a reverse platoon split early in his career. Left-handed batters hit .333/.500/333 against him in 16 PA, while right-handed batters hit .229/.275/.292 against him in 102 PA. Wood had a tough time at home this season, with 20 hits allowed in 14 2/3 innings in San Francisco this season.

Finally, the Athletics send Cole Irvin against the Angels and Patrick Sandoval. All four of Irvin’s home runs allowed came on the road this season. Sandoval has yet to allow a home run anywhere in 2022. He is one of three pitchers not to allow a home run this season in at least 30 innings.

October 12, 2021

Alex and Evan

Leave a reply

The Giants beat the Dodgers 1-0 Monday night to take a 2-1 lead in their NLDS. Alex Wood and the Giants bullpen combined to shutout the Dodgers on five hits and two walks. Two of those hits came off the bat of Albert Pujols, who started at first base. The offense came from Evan Longoria, who homered off Max Scherzer in the fifth inning, the only mistake in an otherwise brilliant seven inning of pitching. Giants batters struck out a total of fourteen times in the game, and only collected three hits, but the one that left the yard was enough.

The game was pretty typical of Longoria’s post-season career. He is 23 for 125, but with five doubles and ten home runs for a .464 slugging percentage and a .280 isolated power. He’s been an all or nothing player in the playoffs.

October 11, 2021

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

It’s a Columbus Day extravaganza as all four league division series are in action. The Brewers and Braves kick off the day in Atlanta at 1 PM EDT with Freddy Peralta facing Ian Anderson. Peralta is another pitcher with a great ERA who failed to qualify for the ERA rankings. Part of that was making 27 starts, but the bigger part of that was averaging just 5 1/3 inning per start. It strike me that some ERAs are getting better due to pitchers being removed before the point of failure, but of course that makes those starters less valuable overall. There’s a big difference between getting sixteen out a game and twenty one outs a game. Anderson handled the Brewers well in his only start against them this season, allowing two hits and four walks in six innings.

The Astros play second match point against the White Sox with Jose Urquidy taking on Carlos Rodon. Urquidy at seasonal age 26 reached 100 MLB innings for the first time in his career. He showed great control, striking out 90 in 107 innings with just 19 walks. Rodon, in his first outstanding season in the majors, improved all dimensions of the three-true outcomes. He did this but relying much more on his four-seam fastball. That seems to have made his slider more effective. Game time is 3:30 PM EDT.

Collin McHugh tries to stave off the Red Sox and elimination for the Rays. Eduardo Rodriguez stands in the way for Boston. McHugh serves as an opener, pitching twelve innings in his seven starts. He may be the best out there, as he allowed no runs, six hits, and one walk while striking out twelve. As a reliever he allowed a 1.90 ERA in 52 innings. Rodriguez struck out 24 Rays and walked just three in 2021, but still allowed 13 runs in 24 innings. Game time is 7 PM EDT.

The Giants and Dodgers move south to Los Angeles for game three of their LDS. Former Dodgers starter Alex Wood takes on the newest Dodgers starter Max Scherzer. Wood experience against the Dodgers looks like Rodriguez against the Rays. Wood struck out 22 and walked three in 17 innings, but allowed nine runs. Scherzer is undefeated since joining Los Angeles, posting a 1.98 ERA in eleven starts covering 68 1/3 innings. Game time is 9 PM EDT.

Enjoy!

July 31, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

A possible World Series match-up takes place in San Francisco where the Astros send Zack Greinke against the Giants and Alex Wood. With a win tonight, Greinke goes 90 games over .500 for his career. His 3.48 ERA this season is very close to his career mark of 3.37. After two rough seasons, Wood is back to his 2018 form with a 3.65 ERA and just ten home runs allowed in 93 2/3 innings.

The Reds send Wade Miley against the Mets and Rich Hill, but the story of the game is Joey Votto attempting to tie the record of eight straight games with a home run. Votto is just one for ten against Hill in his career with three walks and two strikeouts.

The current Milwaukee team and the former Milwaukee team battle in Atlanta with Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers taking on Kyle Muller of the Braves. Woodruff leads the NL with a 2.14 ERA. He allowed just 75 hits in 126 innings. Muller, in his rookie year, is wild but tough to hit. He walked 13 in 24 2/3 innings, but allowed just 15 hits.

Enjoy!

May 21, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

It’s the Mets at Miami as Marcus Stroman faces John Curtiss. With a 2.70 ERA, Stroman pitches better than his 3-4 record. He walked just ten batters and allowed 40 hits in 46 2/3 innings. Curtiss operates as the occasional opener. Working mostly out of the bullpen, he owns 24 strikeouts and just two walks in 20 innings this season.

On the west coast, the Dodgers send new pitcher Trevor Bauer against the Giants and former pitcher Alex Wood. The Giants lead the Dodgers by two games in the NL West, with San Diego sandwiched between them. Bauer seems human on the road, with a 1-2 record and 2.89 ERA in six starts. Six of his eight home runs allowed came away from Dodger Stadium. Wood stands undefeated, 5-0 in six starts for the Giants with a 1.75 ERA. He allowed just 25 hits in 36 innings.

Enjoy!

May 16, 2021

Misreading Wood

Leave a reply

Alex Wood pitches another fine game for the Giants, allowing one run in six innings in a 4-1 victory over the Pirates. Wood’s ERA now stands at 1.75 after 36 innings of work. That’s a big improvement the last two seasons in which he combined for a 5.96 ERA.

Looking at his changes on FanGraphs, the biggest difference he that Wood is fooling batters both inside and outside the strike zone. Inside the zone, he is getting fewer swings. Outside the zone he is getting more swing with less contact. So far, that made hitting him difficult, and also led to a low number of walks.

May 10, 2021

Game of the Day

Leave a reply

Stay up late for interleague action as the Rangers visit the Giants with Kyle Gibson facing Alex Wood. Both pitchers stand 3-0. Gibson comes into the game with a 2.40 ERA after seven starts and 41 1/3 innings. He allowed just two home runs after giving up twelve in 67 1/3 innings in 2020. Wood owns a 1.96 ERA in four starts and 23 innings. His problem last season came from hits. He allowed 17 hits in 12 2/3 innings. This season, he allowed just 13 so far.

Enjoy!

December 21, 2018

Dodgers Making Room?

Leave a reply

The Reds got a lot better today as the Dodgers appear to be making room on their roster:


The Los Angeles Dodgers are trading outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig and pitcher Alex Wood to the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Homer Bailey and prospects, according to multiple reports.


Also reportedly headed to the Dodgers are shortstop Jeter Downs, who was a first-round pick (No. 32) in the 2017 draft, and right-handed pitcher Josiah Gray, a second-round pick (No. 72) this past summer who turned 21 on Friday.

ESPN.com

So the Dodgers trade three good players for the oft injured Homer Bailey. Downs is very young, but does an excellent job of getting on base. Gray played in rookie ball this year and struck out 59 in 52 1/3 innings, walking just 17.

This looks like a deal that foreshadows the the Dodgers signing someone big. Given that an outfield spot is now open, I’m assuming they are going after Bryce Harper.

For the Reds, they get a strong starting pitcher, someone who can be the ace of the staff. Kemp gives them a good veteran presence to go along with Joey Votto, and Puig can generate two to three WAR. The Reds are sending the message to their fans that they are trying to win, and they should put a better team on the field in 2019.

August 20, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Indians visit the Red Sox with Corey Kluber facing Rick Porcello. Both pitchers come into the game with 15 wins, but Kluber gets there with a 2.68 ERA, Porcello with a 4.04 mark. The other great match-up in the game is Jose Ramirez against Mookie Betts, two of the best young hitters in the game today. They are 1-2 in the majors in WAR among position players.

The Mariners get a chance to gain in the AL West as they host the Astros. Gerrit Cole faces Felix Hernandez. Cole pitched well against the Mariners this season, with a 2.57 ERA, but owns a 1-2 record. Hernandez is winless in his last six appearances with a 7.36 ERA. He allowed seven home runs in 29 1/3 innings.

Finally, Austin Gomber and Alex Wood square off in an important game in the NL Wild Card race as the Cardinals visit the Dodgers. Gomber owns a 2.89 ERA in his rookie year despite a high walk rate. He makes up for that by holding opponents to a .218 BA. Wood took off since the All-Star break, allowing a 1.59 ERA in in 22 2/3 innings. He has not allowed a home run in those four starts.

Enjoy!

August 3, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Cardinals send John Gant against the Pirates as Chris Archer makes his debut for Pittsburgh. Gant doesn’t exactly pitch to contact, with 29 walks and 50 strikeous in 59 1/3 innings. The contact against him doesn’t seem to be very good, as opponents are hitting just .200/.294/.327 against him. Archer gets in trouble early innings. With none on and none out this season, opponents are hitting .320/.346/.500 against him.

Luis Serverino takes on Rick Porcello in game two of the four-game weekend series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. Severino is slumping, with an 8.84 ERA in his last four starts. He has not made it past 15 outs in any of those games, allowing seven home runs in 19 1/3 innings. Porcello went 4-1 in July despite a 5.74 ERA. Both own good walks and strikeout numbers, but are giving up a ton of hits.

Finally, Justin Verlander leads the Astros against the Dodgers and Alex Wood in a battle of western division leaders. Verlander needs 10 strikeouts to reach 200 for the eighth season in his career. Wood owns a 7.47 ERA in three starts against AL teams.

Enjoy!

July 28, 2018

Games of the Day

1 Reply

I will defer to the Brad Keller against Luis Severino comment from yesterday.

The Cubs send Jose Quintana against the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas. Quintana found his groove in July, posting a 1.89 ERA in July despite nine walks in 19 innings. Batters only accumulated 14 hits against him. Mikolas is the feel good story of the season, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA at 2.82 after not having pitched in the majors since 2014.

Alex Wood takes the hill for the Dodgers against the Braves and Max Fried. Wood owns a 1-3 record in four starts against his former team with a 6.05 ERA. Fried burns batters, with 25 K in 20 2/3 innings.

Finally, the Brewers try to continue their domination of the Giants as Jhoulys Chacín takes on Johnny Cueto. Chacin stands 3-0 in July with just four walks allowed in 23 2/3 innings. Cueto owns a 4.50 ERA at home this season where he allowed five home runs in 22 innings.

Enjoy!

July 8, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Braves and Brewers finish up their series with Sean Newcomb facing Junior Guerra. Newcomb allows a high number of walks, and the problem manifests itself mostly on the road. He’s allowed 29 walks in 53 1/3 road innings. With just 40 hits allowed, his road ERA stands at a good 3.21. Guerra continues to thrive with men on base, with a .183/.257/.317 slash line. That make it difficult to start sustain a rally against him.

The Cardinals send Jack Flaherty against Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. Flaherty shows great control, with 80 strikeouts and 19 walks in 67 2/3 innings. His weakness is the ten home runs he allowed, although with is .281 opposition OBP, seven of those were solo shots. Bumgarner posted a 2.58 ERA since returning from the disabled list, but is just 1-3 as the Giants scored three runs or less in five of his six starts.

Finally, the Sunday night game features the battle of the greater Los Angeles area, with Alex Wood of the Dodgers taking on Andrew Heaney of the Angels. Wood gets in trouble with men on base, allowing seven of his 11 home runs with runners on. Heaney is even worse, with eight of his 11 home runs coming with men on base.

Enjoy!

May 26, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Cardinals battle the Pirates as Jack Flaherty takes on Trevor Williams. Flaherty does a good job limiting extra-base hits. Of the 17 hits he allowed this season, 14 landed as singles. Williams is a low strikeout, low hit pitcher. He induces a lot of fly balls without giving up too many home runs. Fly balls that don’t leave the park tend to come down in the gloves of fielders.

Houston goes for their sixth win in a row against the Indians. The Astros pounded the Indians in the first two games of the series, and send Lance McCullers against Carlos Carrasco in game three. McCullers gets away with a fairly high walk rate as he limits opposition hits, especially home runs. He has not allowed a home run in May in 25 innings. Carrasco gives up few walks and few hits, but five of his eight home runs came with men on base.

Jake Odorizzi and Wade LeBlanc tussle in Seattle as the Twins continue their series with the Mariners. It is tough to score on Odorizzi other than by a home run. Thirteen of the 21 runs against him came on the 10 dingers he allowed. LeBlanc is pitching better as a starter than a reliever this year. He posted a 4.61 ERA in the bullpen, 1.33 in the rotation.

Finally, the Padres and Dodgers meet in Los Angeles with Jordan Lyles facing Alex Wood. Lyles, too, has found success as a starter, with a 2.50 ERA in that role versus 3.66 in the bullpen. He posts better K and BB rates as a starter. Wood owns a 1-4 record in 10 starts, despite a 3.32 ERA. A LHP, he pitched better against righty batters, .213/.247/.331.

Enjoy!

May 20, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Dodgers go for a sweep of the Nationals as Alex Wood takes on Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals have called up 19-year-old Juan Soto for the game to replace the injured Howie Kendrick.

Soto started the 2018 season with Class-A Hagerstown. After hitting ..373/.486/.814 with five home runs and 24 RBIs in 74 plate appearances, the outfielder was promoted to High-A Potomac. At Potomac he hit .371/.466/.790 with seven home runs and 18 RBIs in 73 plate appearances. In May, Soto was promoted to Double-A Harrisburg, where he hit .296/.387/.556 with two home runs and eight RBIs in 31 plate appearances before Saturday.

So the Nationals are looking for a level where Soto can’t hit. Players who make to the majors at age 19 have a high probability of being great players.

Wood has yet to record a victory in nine starts this season despite a 3.35 ERA. His three-true outcome numbers are outstanding. The Dodgers have won five of his starts, but he tends not to stick around long enough for the win. Strasburg keeps batters off base, but gives up some power. Seventeen of the 49 hits against him have gone for extra bases, including eight home runs.

The Padres send Jordan Lyles against the Pirates and Trevor Williams. After 13 relief appearances with a 3.66 ERA, Lyles made two starts and allowed just two runs in 12 1/3 innings, only one of them earned. He’s striking out batters at a higher rate and walking them at a lower rate than he did as a reliever. Williams in a low strike out, high walk pitcher, but he is not allowing many hits. He changed something this season as he is now allowing more fly balls than grounders. He is throwing more change ups than sliders now, but I wonder if he’s simply getting more backspin on his four-seam fastball.

The Phillies continue to impress, and they try to take three out of four in St. Louis. Aaron Nola faces Jack Flaherty. Nola is a great three-true outcomes pitcher. While his strikeout rate is good, his home run and walk rates are excellent. He allowed a .218 BA, and just a .267 OBP. Flaherty is another good young pitcher the Cardinals always seem to control in their system. He posted a 2.87 ERA in three starts, with only two of the 15 hits against him going for extra bases.

Finally, the Indians and Astros present a great Sunday night game. Carlos Carrasco battles Lance McCullers. Both are 5-2 with ERAs in the 3.60s. McCullers does a better job of keeping the ball in the park, Carrasco of limiting walks.

Enjoy!

April 12, 2018

Fish Story

Leave a reply

Alex Wood‘s poor performance Wednesday night may have been a hangover from this food poisoning:

Bad sushi, bad defense, bad pitching â?¦ they all conspired against the Dodgers in an unsightly 16-6 loss to the Oakland Athletics before an announced crowd of 49,394 in Dodger Stadium on Wednesday night.

Left-hander Alex Wood, whose start was pushed back one day because of food poisoning, gave up seven runs and seven hits in a wobbly 32/3-inning effort that probably made him feel as queasy as he did in San Francisco over the weekend.

The Athletics scored over a quarter of their season runs in the game.

Also, I didn’t know Sushi Girl had a baseball connection.

I like the way this baseball season has started. A number of teams I thought would be powerhouses are off to mediocre starts, and we have a few surprise teams doing well.

April 4, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rays at Yankees features two pitcher that have yet to allow a run as Blake Snell takes on Luis Severino. Both pitched 5 2/3 innings in their first starts, but arrived at run prevention differently. Snell allowed the ball to be put in play as he walked two and struck out two. Batters, with the ball in play, were 3 for 17. Severino walked three and struck out seven. Opponents were 1 for 11 against him with the ball in play.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks finish their series with Alex Wood facing Patrick Corbin. The Diamondbacks smacked Wood a bit in their home park, as he owns a 5.40 ERA there, mostly due to four home runs allowed in 21 2/3 innings. Corbin is off to a very good start with strikeouts, with eight so far in his first 5 2/3 innings.

Corey Kluber tries to tame the Angels home run bats as the Indians face Tyler Skaggs. Kluber allowed 65 home runs over the previous three seasons, but 41 were solo shots. Skaggs’s strength is his low walk rate, and he did not issue a free pass in his first start while striking out five.

The Pirates try to remain the only undefeated team in baseball as the Twins send Jake Odorizzi against Ivan Nova. Odorizzi made a strong start in his Twins debut, walking two and striking out seven in six shutout innings. Three of the six hits Nova allowed in his first start were doubles, and two of those came with men on base.

Finally, veteran aces square off as Felix Hernandez and the Mariners battle Johnny Cueto and the Giants. Both pitchers are trying to bounce back from rough 2017 seasons, and both are off to a good start. Hernandez pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings, allowing two hits, in his first start. Cueto topped that, with seven innings, allowing one hit, no runs, and no walks.

Enjoy!

March 30, 2018

Games of the Day

1 Reply

Four teams make their 2018 debuts on Friday after rain postponed their scheduled opening day. The Pirates take on the Tigers in the interleague match-up, Ivan Nova battling Jordan Zimmermann. Nova posted a great walk rate since joining the Pirates, 1.4 batters per nine innings. He needs that, as his low strikeout rate leads to a high number of hits. The Nationals appear to have let Zimmermann go at the right time. He owned a 3.32 ERA in his year in Washington, a 5.60 ERA since joining the Tigers.

Max Scherzer takes on Homer Bailey as the Nationals open at the Reds. Since joining the Nationals in 2015, Scherzer sits atop the major league strikeout leader board, a hair in front of Chris Sale. Note that the top three in the list also walk very few batters. Bailey is coming off is first winter in years without surgery or rehabilitation. He will play 2018 as a 32-year-old, so it would be unwise to expect him to return to peak performance. He only walked three in 18 spring innings, but he did allow 26 hits and seven home runs.

Finally, the Dodgers and Giants contine their series with Johnny Cueto taking on Alex Wood. Cueto’s 2017 ERA came in at 4.52, the first time since 2009 that he was over 4.00 for a season. Wood reduced his ERA 1.00 run from 2016, thanks to a much lower walk rate.

Enjoy!

October 28, 2017 October 28, 2017

End of Three

Leave a reply

After three innings, the Astros and Dodgers remain scoreless. Alex Wood, the Dodgers starter, allowed two walks, but removed one of the runners with a double play. Charlie Morton allowed a lead-off single, but that runner was erased on a double play, so he has faced the minimum number of batters. Morton struck out three, Wood one as pitching and defense dominate early in the game.

October 28, 2017

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

The Dodgers try to even the series with the Astros as Los Angeles sends Alex Wood against Charlie Morton. Wood experienced little post-season success in his career. His control is great, with just two walks and 13 strikeouts in 12 innings, but he allowed five home runs. Three of those came in his last outing after a long layoff. That was ten days ago.

Morton owns a 5.30 ERA in 18 2/3 post-season innings. He did not have a good start until game seven against the Yankees. In his 13 2/3 innings previous to that start, he walked eight batters and allowed three home runs. The Dodgers are hoping that Charlie Morton shows up tonight.

Dave Laurila recently sat down with Morton to discuss baseball and life.

Enjoy!

October 18, 2017

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

The Astros and Yankees play the all-important game five, the winner needing just one win on the weekend to take the American League Pennant. Dallas Keuchel faces Masahiro Tanaka in a rematch of game one. Keuchel held the Yankees scoreless for seven innings for the win, while Tanaka allowed two runs in six innings for the loss. Keuchel now owns a 1.69 post-season ERA in five games. In two starts against the Yankees he has yet to allow a run, walking two and striking out 17 in 13 innings of work. Tanaka lost both those games. He walked four and allowed two home runs in his 11 post-season innings against the Astros.

The Dodgers go for their second sweep of the post-season as they send Alex Wood against Jake Arrieta. Wood pitched great on the road this season, 7-1 with a 2.24 ERA, although his three-true outcomes home and road are quite similar. He is coming off a long layoff, however, last pitching on 9/26. Arrieta’s one poor outing in the 2016 post-season came against the Dodgers, when he allowed four runs in five innnings.

Enjoy!

September 20, 2017

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Twins and Yankees finish their series with Bartolo Colon taking on Luis Severino. Colon owns a 4.80 ERA since joining the Twins, much lower than his 8.14 mark with the Braves. He’s back to walking few batters, but he is allowing home runs at a higher rate. The Yankees changed from Masahiro Tanaka to Severino when it seemed clear they had a chance to bury the Twins. Sererino pitched lights out so far in September with a 1.29 ERA in three starts, allowing one home run and four walks in 21 innings with 26 K. Batters managed just six hits against him.

Alex Wood goes for his 16th win as the Dodgers face the Phillies and Jake Thompson. Wood pitched particularly well on the road this season, 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA. His three-true outcomes are better at home, but he allows fewer hits away. Thompson allowed seven home runs in 36 1/3 innings this year, but so far in September he allowed just one in 16 1/3 innings, helping him to a 3.31 ERA in three starts in the month.

Finally, Chris Sale goes for his 17th win as the Red Sox and Baltimore continue their close-fought series. Wade Miley takes the hill for the Orioles. Sale needs 13 strikeouts for 300. Since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling reached that level in 2002, only Clayton Kershaw made it to 300 with 301 in 2015. Sale struck out at least 13 batters three times this season, tied with Corey Kluber for the MLB lead. Miley owns a 9.00 ERA in 12 innings this September, allowing a .500/.478/.864 slash line with men on base.

Enjoy!

September 15, 2017

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Cardinals and Cubs open a three-game series that should help decide the NL Central race. Carlos Martinez faces John Lackey in the opener. Martinez comes into the game with 200 strikeouts, the first time he reached that level in his career. One tenth of those came against the Cubs, and Martinez holds a 2.25 ERA against them in three starts. Lackey allowed 33 home runs this season, only the second time in his career reaching the 30 level. The last time was in 2003 at the end of the PED era.

The Nationals are five games back of the Dodgers for best record in the National League as the teams open a weekend series in Washington. Alex Wood and Edwin Jackson square off in the opener. Wood gave up nine runs in 11 innings since returning from the disabled list, raising his ERA from 2.41 to 2.81. Jackson owns a 3.88 ERA with Washington, despite giving up 13 home runs in 58 innings.

Seattle gets to take a shot at the Astros as James Paxton faces Charlie Morton. Paxton last pitched on Aug. 10th, when a pectoral strain sent him to the disabled list. With Paxton and Felix Hernandez back, the Mariners may have enough pitching to carry them to a wild card berth. Morton is 0-2 in three start against Seattle with a 4.58 ERA.

Finally, Nick Martinez and the Rangers battle the Angels and Bud Norris. Martinez has been terrible since the All-Star break, posting a 7.88 ERA in 24 innings. His strikeouts and walks are good, but he allowed eight home runs. Norris pitched 7 1/3 shutout innings in his only start against Texas this season. His ERA is 2.64 at home, 6.45 on the road in 2017.

Enjoy!

August 22, 2017

Dodgers Keep Falling

Leave a reply

The Dodgers put Cody Bellinger on the disabled list:

Bellinger injured the ankle while jumping to catch a ball near the warning track at Comerica Park in Detroit. The team initially described the injury as “mild,” but Bellinger’s ankle remained swollen through the weekend.

…

With Bellinger out, Adrian Gonzalez remains in the lineup at first base. Bellinger had shifted to the outfield to make room for Gonzalez’s return Friday from the DL. He appeared in right field on only four occasions before the injury.

At this point, I’d rather have Bellinger healthy and Gonzalez on the bench.

Alex Wood joins Bellinger on the DL with shoulder inflammation, which explains his poor outing. It’s the second time on the DL for Wood this season.

August 21, 2017 August 21, 2017

Games of the Day

4 Replies

Alex Wood goes for his 15th win as the Dodgers visit the Pirates and Gerrit Cole. Wood lost just one game. The most wins in the last 60 years with just one loss in a season belongs to Elroy Face who went 18-1 in 1959. Phil Regan went 14-1 in 1966. That same year Jim Nash was 12-1, and Clay Buchholz posted a 12-1 season in 2013. Cole allowed 26 home runs this season. He allowed 36 total home runs in his first four MLB seasons.

The Red Sox and Indians are in line to play each other in the ALDS, Cleveland 2 1/2 games back in the race for home field in that series. They start a four-game series on Monday with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Mike Clevinger. Rodriguez owns a huge reverse split this season, with lefties hitting about 100 points higher than righties in BA, OBP, and slugging percentage. Clevinger pitched poorly at home this season with a 5.08 ERA, allowing eight home runs in 33 2/3 innings.

The Rangers trail the Twins and Angels by 2 1/2 games for the second AL Wild Card. Texas gets a chance to gain on LAnaheim as they open a four-game series in Anaheim. Cole Hamels and Tyler Skaggs battle in game one. Hamels strikeout rate fell significantly this season, but he still managed to do a good job limiting hits. Skaggs allowed six runs in 10 innings against the Rangers this season, despite striking out 11.

Enjoy!