Tag Archives: Yadiel Hernandez

May 5, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.336 — Yadiel Hernandez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.327 — Josh Bell batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.314 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.304 — Maikel Franco batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.303 — Juan Soto batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.302 — Keibert Ruiz batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.291 — Alcides Escobar batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.291 — Nolan Arenado batting against Logan Webb.
0.282 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Aaron Civale.
0.280 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Aaron Civale.
0.280 — Bo Bichette batting against Aaron Civale.

The seasonal age 24 Y. Hernandez is having a breakout season, hitting .371/.394/.523. While the Log5 Method does not take the park into account, Coors does make Senzatela somewhat hittable. It looks like it should be a good day for the Nationals.

Here are the NN picks:

0.336, 0.712 — Yadiel Hernandez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.327, 0.697 — Josh Bell batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.279, 0.691 — Michael Brantley batting against Tarik Skubal.
0.280, 0.680 — Bo Bichette batting against Aaron Civale.
0.257, 0.680 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Shohei Ohtani.
0.282, 0.679 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Aaron Civale.
0.314, 0.679 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.266, 0.679 — Manny Machado batting against Jesus Luzardo.
0.268, 0.679 — Jose Iglesias batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.291, 0.678 — Nolan Arenado batting against Logan Webb.

The two systems agree on Hernandez and Bell as the top two picks, with Bichette and Guerrero moving higher up the list. It’s never a bad idea to pick good hitters performing in Colorado.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 2, 2022

Best Batter Today

Two Mariners top the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings this Monday morning. J.P. Crawford blasts his way to the top with a two for three day, including a double, home run, and a walk. His teammate, Ty France, goes one for four in the 7-3 win over the Marlins and drops to second place.

Juan Soto of the Nationals takes part in the 11-5 over the Giants with a three for five day, all three hits going for singles. He stands in third place. Of the 18 total hits in the game, two doubles by Yadiel Hernandez were the only extra base hits.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians singled and drew two for fourth place, the Guardians sweeping the Athletics by a score of 7-3. The Cardinals gave Paul Goldschmidt the day off, and he sits in fifth place.

The highest game score of the day goes to Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies. He hit two home runs off Max Scherzer of the Mets and added a single for good measure, but New York takes the game 10-6. Schwarber’s night at the plate was good for an 80. MIke Trout was second with a 78, and moved up 22 slots in the rankings to 271.

August 1, 2021

Minor Power

For the second day in a row, a career minor leaguer hit three home runs in the majors. Today, Rafael Ortega of the Cubs went deep three times against the Nationals. Ortega first came up at seasonal age 21 in 2012 for two games. He did not reach the majors again until 2016, then played in 2018, 2019, and now 2021. He’s played 1121 minor league games and 310 foreign league games, but only 192 at the major league level coming into today. Those 192 games produce six home runs. He’s up 50% today.

It wasn’t enough, however, as Washington wins 6-5 on a walk-off home run by Yadiel Hernandez, his second of the day. Hernandez is seasonal age 33, and also a career minor league/foreign league player.

September 22, 2020

Well Timed Walkoffs

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The Phillies and Nationals go into extra innings in the second game of their doubleheader. The Phillies score once in the top of the eighth inning, but leave the bases loaded. In the bottom of the eighth, Yadiel Hernandez hits his first MLB home run to win the game 8-7.

Flipping over to the White Sox at Cleveland, also in extra innings, the White Sox are up 3-1 in the bottom of the tenth. Jose Ramirez comes to the plate and hits a three-run homer to win the game for the Indians 5-3. That four home runs for Ramirez in his last three games and six in his last six.

Update: The Cleveland wins sends them to the playoffs.