Tag Archives: Mike Moustakas

January 6, 2023

Sunk Cost

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The Reds released Mike Moustakas while still owing him $22 million:

The three-time All-Star was drafted second overall by Kansas City in 2007 and signed a $64 million, four-year contract with Cincinnati in December 2019. He is a .247 career hitter with 203 homers and 635 RBIs in 12 major league seasons with the Royals, Brewers and Reds.
ESPN.com

At the time, it was a perfectly reasonable contract. Moustakas produced 7.2 fWAR over the three previous seasons, and the money meant that the Reds expected him to produce about the same over the next four seasons. Instead, he produced -0.5 fWAR in the first three years of the contract.

For some reason, Moustakas went from a low strikeout player with power to a high K player without power. He did suffer a number of injuries the last two seasons. This is the danger of signing someone to a long-term deal in his 30s. A player can do downhill quickly. It’s good to see the Reds realize that they are better off with that particular player off the roster. The sunk cost is there, and with luck they can find a youngster at league minimum who will at least post a positive WAR and play nearly every day.

December 3, 2019

Differing on Moustakas

RedReporter Fred Regorter believes the Reds paid a bit too much for Mike Moustakas. That differs from my analysis that the Reds got a good deal. Regorter notes that there were non-tender candidates available that could produce at a lower cost, although neither option appears to be quite as consistently good as Moustakas. I was looking at purely dollars per WAR.

Neither of the other two candidates, Jonathan Villar and Cesar Hernandez, were long term solutions. Both would need to go through the arbitration process, and then would be eligible for free agency at the end of the 2020 season. With Moustakas, the Reds are getting a consistent player at below the going rate per WAR.

November 16, 2018

It’s Always an Injury

Scott Boras cites Bryce Harper‘s 2017 leg injury for his defensive fall-off in 2018:

Moustakas’ ratings at third base took a major dip in 2017, when he was coming off a season in which he appeared in only 27 games because of a torn ACL in his right knee. But once Moustakas’ leg was fully recovered, he rebounded defensively in 2018.

Boras envisions Harper following the same pattern, saying the outfielder’s difficulties last season stemmed from the hyperextended left knee that sidelined him from Aug. 13 to Sept. 26, 2017.

“His legs were flat-out tired,” Boras said. “It was the same thing with Moose. The rehab time in one offseason sometimes is not enough. Look at Moose’s defensive metrics at third base. They’re now all plus-plus. In ‘17, they weren’t there. Everyone goes, ‘It’s his body type.’ No, he had a leg injury.”

Boras then referenced the defensive runs saved metric (DRS).

“These plus-minus things, when it’s plus-plus-plus all the way through, and then you have a leg injury and it’s minus the next year, it always goes back to the plus,” the agent said.

I would not be surprised if the leg also contributed to Harper’s prolonged slump at the plate. I have believed for a long time that most slumps are caused by injuries minor enough to allow a player to stay on the roster but bothersome enough to hurt production. Maybe “major slump” should be a reason to go on the disabled list.

October 4, 2018

Moose Tracks

Christian Yelich walks to lead-off the bottom of the tenth, and eventually Mike Moustakas singles to bring him home. The Brewers win game one 3-2. Yelich went two for three with two walks in the game, while Moustakas also walked once in the game. It took awhile, but the Brewers get off to a one game lead in the best of five series. Two trades figured big in the win.

July 28, 2018

Moustakas to the Brewers

The Royals traded Mike Moustakas to the Brewers in the middle of the night:

To what degree this deal might make Moustakas again some kind of factor in a Royals restoration remains to be seen, of course, in whatever those acquired for him — outfielder Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez — come to mean to the franchise.

But that won’t be known for some time: Each has spent most of this season with Class AAA Colorado Springs; Phillips will report to the Royals as soon as possible and Lopez is headed to Class AAA Omaha.

Moustakas was one of the players nobody wanted last winter, and the Royals signed him to $11 million less than the qualifying deal they originally offered. His offense got worse but his defense improved, and now they flipped that low investment into two players. Phillips owns an amazing minor league BABIP, but strikes out so often his batting average is low. Lopez does a good job of keeping the ball in the park, but I doubt either of them will be stars. It’s not really the start of a rebuild for the Royals, it’s more an acquisition of MLB ready players.

March 9, 2018

Return of the Moose

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As the free agent camp closes, Mike Moustakas reaches a deal with his former team, the Royals:

Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported on Thursday night that Moustakas agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual second-year option worth up to $22.7 million, pending a physical. Passan reported the contract is for $5.5 million for 2018 with up to $2.2 million in incentives and a $1 million buyout on a $15 million option for 2019.

The Royals would not confirm the details. But the club has never shut down the possibility of bringing back Moustakas, last year’s American League Comeback Player of the Year, at the right price.

Moustakas did turn down the Royals qualifying offer, leading to the tweet of the day:

Royals front office now, after he turned down 1 year $17m qualifying offer pic.twitter.com/OYQ5I3fdp3

— Jose Ayeeee (@jaahapp_y) March 9, 2018

Moustakas averaged about 2.3 fWAR over the last three seasons. He will play 2018 as a 29-year-old, so he is still in his prime. He probably should have received at least a five-year, $80 million contract. His WAR is volatile, however, and his defense slipped in 2018. I don’t know if either of those things mattered this off-season.

If MLB is going to make a collusion case, Moustakas is going to be the poster child. If this is just the way the market is know, Moustakas is one of the unluckiest free agents in baseball history. It may be telling, however, that the Brewers, Yankees, and White Sox were not willing to beat that offer by enough to make Moustakas leave Kansas City.

Update: Here is Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs on why the Moustakas market didn’t develop.

March 8, 2018

Free Agent Odds

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Via Bovada.lv, here are the latest odds that various free agents will sign with various clubs:

Who will Jake Arietta sign his next MLB contract with?

Milwaukee Brewers 7/4
Washington Nationals 5/2
San Diego Padres 11/4
Philadelphia Phillies 9/2
Minnesota Twins 8/1

Who will Jose Bautista sign his next MLB contract with?

Tampa Bay Rays 8/5
Any Other Team 1/2

Who will Alex Cobb sign his next MLB contract with?

Minnesota Twins 5/4
Milwaukee Brewers 4/1
Philadelphia Phillies 4/1
St. Louis Cardinals 4/1
Texas Rangers 6/1

Who will Lance Lynn sign his next MLB contract with?

Minnesota Twins 9/5
Philadelphia Phillies 10/3
New York Yankees 6/1
St. Louis Cardinals 6/1
Baltimore Orioles 7/1
Milwaukee Brewers 17/2
New York Mets 17/2

Who will Mike Moustakas sign his next MLB contract with?

Chicago White Sox 6/5
Kansas City Royals 8/5
New York Yankees 4/1
Milwaukee Brewers 5/1

I would love to see the Twins take advantage of a down market and sign two of these pitchers.

January 17, 2018

Random Player Report

The Random Evil Player program selected Mike Moustakas for the next review. Moustakas played third base for the Royals during his seven-year career, and is now one of the free agents hanging in limbo as teams decide who they want to pay for the 2018 season. Looking at Moustakas history, I’m not surprised that teams are balking at signing him.

A rule of thumb that works well for me in predicting a free agent contract is to start with the last three season WAR, and work forward from the average of those three seasons. That average is about 2.25 WAR, combining both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Free agents should be getting about $8 million per WAR, so Moustakas should be getting about $18 million for the 2018 season. Since he will play 2018 as a 29-year-old, we don’t expect a decline for a couple of years. After that, I figure in a 10% decline a year, so for a five-year deal, his WARs would by 2.25, 2.25, 2.025, 1.8, 1.6 for a total of about $79.5 million. If Moustakas has a five-year, $80 million contract on the table, he should take it.

The problem with Moustakas is volatility. His rWAR for the last three season are 4.4, 0.7, 1.8. His fWAR for the last three seasons are 3.7, 0.7, 2.2. You see the same kinds of ups and downs throughout his career. So over a five season contract, a team may get two good years, but they may get two bad ones as well.

The final word of warning against Moustakas is his poor OBP, .305 for his career. He is an out machine. Recently, he increased his power to compensate for this. Still, $16 million a year over fives years is a lot of money to pay someone to make a high number of outs.

If I were a GM who needed a third baseman, I’d offer Moustakas $40 million for two years. The higher salary would serve as compensation for the shortness of the deal. I would hope in one of those years he can get on base like he did in 2015, and that his 2017 defensive decline was a blip. If he plays well, he comes out of his prime years looking like someone who deserves a $100 million, five-year contract.

July 10, 2017

Sano Takes the First Pairing

Miguel Sano beats Mike Moustakas 11-10. Moustakas had a good chance with a minute to go, but could not convert. I really like the four minute clock. Sano wins because he earned bonus time by hitting at least two 440 ft. home runs, and Moutakas did not.

December 31, 2016

Projecting Moustakas

John Viril likes the chances of Mike Moustakas posting big numbers in 2017:

Over on Fangraphs.com, Randy Holt pointed out that Mike Moustakas suffered from an unusually bad Batting Average Balls in Play (BABIP) in his short 2016 season. Further, Moustakas’ plate discipline continued to improve with a low 11.5% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Moustakas’ hard-hit percentage zoomed to a career-high 37.4%. Even with the horrendous .214 BABIP, Moustakas managed a .801 OPS and a 110 OPS+ (10% better than a league average hitter).

That unusually low BABIP occurred despite Moustakas continuing to show that he had learned how to hit balls to the opposite field. While Moustakas is a guy that has posted low BABIPs throughout his career, his BABIP improved to .294 in 2015. That number is slightly below the .300 that most analysts consider average.

Moustakas also suffered from a death in the family as well as an injury.

If you look at his career, however, 2016 is much more in line with his career prior to 2015. Moustakas hit for a low BA, with a low OBP, and some power. Batted ball data show he reduced his likelihood of pulling the ball in 2016, something that he did carry over into 2016. In 2016, he started hitting fly balls with more authority, popping up less and leaving the park more.

I suspect, however, that going the other way stops working as well once the element of surprise is gone. Moustakas used to pull the ball a lot, and I suspect defenses played him that way. Once they knew he was using the whole field, the holes closed. He went back to being a low on-base hitter with some power.

Moustakas plays 2017 as a 28-year-old. He’s still at the top of his prime, so a return to his 2015 levels is quite possible. He adjusted in 2015 by going the other way. He adjusted in 2016 by improving his home run swing (in a small sample). Pitchers and defenses adjust, too. We’ll see if Moustakas can stay one step ahead of the competition. I would guess he posts a season better than his career averages, but not equal to his 2015 campaign. Musings Marcels has him at .258/.320/.436.

May 26, 2016

Royals Lose Moustakas

It looks like the Royals lost Mike Moustakas for the season:

This time, he has a torn right ACL. Yeah, the basketball injury.

He was placed on the 15-day disabled list, but he won’t be back in 15 days. He won’t be back this season. When hoopsters have the surgery, they’re typically out for roughly a year. Some make it back within nine or 10 months, but for others, like Derrick Rose, it takes longer than a year.

The injury happened Sunday, when Moustakas and outfielder Alex Gordon collided — smashing knees and thighs together — while chasing a foul popup by the White Sox’s Melky Cabrera. At first, it appeared Gordon got the worst of the collision; he went on the DL with a fractured right wrist the next day and is expected to be out about a month.

I don’t know how much this will hurt the Royals, since Moustakas mostly reverted to form this season. He was hitting for power, but his batting average and OBP returned to his career levels after an outlier season in 2015. He’s been an out machine this year with a .301 OBP.

October 17, 2015

They’re Saying “Mooooooose”

Two base on balls by Aaron Loup brings up Mike Moustakas in the bottom of the eighth, and Moustakas delivers an RBI single to extend the Royals lead to 6-3. This team has be relentless in the late innings lately.

May 25, 2015

Games of the Day

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The improved Royals travel to New York to play the reeling Yankees as Jeremy Guthrie faces Nathan Eovaldi. It’s not the greatest pitching match-up, but keep your eyes on Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Kendrys Morales. All three are off to terrific starts, and the three have combined for 156 hits, 57 for extra bases. This is the kind of production that has been expected of the younger two for years, and Morales finally seems to be back to his pre walk-off injury self.

The Astros tour continues as their ace, Dallas Keuchel tries to remain undefeated against Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles. Keuchel is slightly behind Sonny Gray in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points, so a decent game will put the Astros starter back in the lead. Chen stands 1-3 despite a 2.90 ERA, and owns that ERA despite allowing seven home runs in 49 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting just .118 against him with runners in scoring position. The Astros are a power team, however, so they should match up well in the game.

The Nationals travel to Chicago to take on the improved Cubs. Tanner Roark faces Tsuyoshi Wada. Roark makes his first start of the season as Doug Fister lands on the disabled list. He posted one of the best ERAs in the Washington rotation in 2014, but his three-true outcomes were the weakest of the group. He walked five and struck out seven in 20 1/3 bullpen innings this year. Wada struck out nine and walked one in 4 2/3 innings in his first start this year.

Finally, the Mariners take on the Rays as Roenis Elias battles Jake Odorizzi. Elias allowed three of his four home runs on the road, but he’s also struck out 17 in 20 2/3 innings away. Odorizzi allowed just two home runs this season in 59 1/3 innings, and owns a 1.73 ERA at home.

Enjoy!

April 28, 2015

More for Moose

Mike Moustakas picked up two more hits Tuesday night as the Royals pounded the Indians 11-5. To follow up on his hitting against the shift, Moustakas pulled one single on the infield, and the other he went the other way to left. He was one of five Royals hitters to collect multiple hits in the game. Mike now owns a .346/.418/.519 slash line.

April 28, 2015

Hitting Against the Shift

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Mike Moustakas discovers the value of hitting against the shift:

Moustakas tied a career-high with four more hits in the Royals’ win over Corey Kluber and the Indians on Monday night. Three of the hits came against Kluber, giving him 11 career hits in 25 at-bats against the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Moustakas is now hitting .342 this season.

Moustakas is a hitter who frequently faces defensive shifts by opponents because of his pull tendencies, but he has taken a different tack this season.

Over the previous two seasons, Moustakas hit 22 percent of his batted balls to the opposite field.

This season, he has put 68 balls in play and 28 of them have gone to the opposite field (41 percent).

More notable is the payoff. He has 14 opposite-field hits this season, including three on Monday. He totaled 18 opposite-field hits in 140 games last season.

Moustakas owns a career .240/.295/.385 slash line. This season it stands at .342/.419/.526. Note the power number. His career isoloated power is .145, this season, .184. So going the other way has not decreased his power, one of the big arguments against hitting to the opposite field against the shift.

Cheers to Moustakas for turning a negative into a positive. I will temper my enthusiasm by noting that anything can happen in 100 plate appearances, and this may not last.

October 14, 2014

Into the Seats

Mike Moustakas makes a great catch in foul territory, falling over the fence into the dugout seats down the third base line. The Royals fans kept Moustakas from falling on his head as he makes his second great play of the game. The Orioles and Royals remain tied at one in the top of the sixth inning.

October 5, 2014

Mooseter Mash

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Mike Moustakas goes deep with one out in the bottom of the fourth, and the Royals get their four-run lead back. That’s four home runs in the game, and four home runs for the Royals in four post-season games. The Angels now trail 6-2.

Update: They Royals continue to pour it on as a sacrifice fly makes the score 7-2 with two out in the fourth.

Update: The inning ends with no more damage. The Royals are five innings away from the ALCS.

October 2, 2014

Royals Run

Mike Moustakas walked with two out in the top of the third, and Alcides Escobar drives him home with a double off the wall in leftfield. The Royals take a 1-0 lead. They have two hits and two walks so far, but they also lost two runners to a double play and a pick off. The Angels are still looking for their first hit as the game heads to the bottom of the third.

Update: The first hit for the Angels ties the game as Chris Iannetta homers with two out in the third, into the front bullpen in leftfield. The game is tied at one at the end of three innings.

September 30, 2014

Raising Cain

Lorenzo Cain gets the second two-out RBI hit as he doubles to drive in Mike Moustakas in the bottom of the third, tying the game at two. Moustakas singled against the shift to start the inning, and reach third on a bunt and a ground out.

Eric Hosmer bloops a hit into left to drive in the third run of the game as the Royals take a 3-2 lead.

May 21, 2012

Put the Good Bats Together

The Royals moved Mike Moustakas right behind Billy Butler in the lineup, and it paid off tonight against the Yankees. With two out, Butler singled and Mike homered to give the Royals a 2-0 lead in the first inning. For a while, Mike was batting farther down in the order, putting two much space between the two hitters who got on base and hit for power. Now the murder’s pair is right together.

May 3, 2012

Home Happiness

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The Royals beat the Yankees 4-3, Kansas City winning their first game at home this season after 10 losses. Mike Moustakas played the role of hero, driving in three runs with a single and a home run, and making a tough play on a slow roller by Alex Rodriguez with the tying run at third to end the game.

David Phelps lasted just four innings in his first MLB start, mostly because he threw 85 pitches. The big positive was that he walked none and struck out five, but he’ll need to become a bit more efficient.

Derek Jeter went four for five and raised his BA to .404. He’s now nine hits behind Tony Gwynn for 18th on the all-time list.

April 29, 2012

The Double Letter Wrecking Crew

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When I look at a Royals box score, especially when they perform well, two names usually stand out; Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas. BB and MM combined to go five for seven against the Twins Sunday afternoon, with Mike hitting a home run. The Royals continue to separate them by two batters not hitting well, Jeff Francoeur and Eric Hosmer. ~~It didn’t matter today as the Royals won 7-4, but the team might score more efficiently if B & M were hitting together in the order~~. It mattered today as the Royals lost 7-4.

June 9, 2011

Another Rookie Royal

Mike Moustakas received the call from the Royals:

The Kansas City Royals are calling up third baseman Mike Moustakas from Triple-A Omaha and the long-awaited first-round draft pick of 2007 will make his debut on Friday night at the Los Angeles Angels.

Moustakas will also be reunited with his buddy, first baseman Eric Hosmer, the 2008 first-round pick who was brought up from Omaha on May 6 and has been the Royals’ best hitter.

Looking at his minor league numbers, he seems more like Jeff Francoeur than George Brett. He’s only 22, however, so he has time to grow.