Tag Archives: Justin Nicolino

August 23, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson
0.328 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.311 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Justin Nicolino
0.308 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.301 — Nick Williams batting against Justin Nicolino
0.300 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Garza
0.298 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson
0.298 — Aaron Altherr batting against Justin Nicolino
0.298 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Justin Nicolino
0.291 — Justin Turner batting against Trevor Williams

Although Altuve is at the top, the Log5 method really likes the Phillies against Justin Nicolino. The league is hitting .320/.380/.492 against him.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.337, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.328, 0.744 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.289, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Fiers.
0.275, 0.725 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.298, 0.725 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.270, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.300, 0.725 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Garza.
0.281, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.289, 0.721 — Corey Seager batting against Trevor Williams.
0.311, 0.718 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.308, 0.718 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

The NN discounts Nicolino’s brief but poor 2017 season more than the NN does, so only Cesar Hernandez makes the top ten. Altuve is the unanimous pick, with Gregorious the unanimous second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Brad Miller	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Alen Hanson	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Wil Myers	17
Joey Gallo	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Allen Cordoba	16
Jose Ramirez	15
Jean Segura	15
Jefry Marte	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Greg Bird	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Abraham Almonte	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
David Freese	14
Rafael Devers	14
Logan Forsythe	13
Stephen Drew	13
Freddy Galvis	13
Carlos Ruiz	13
Mikie Mahtook	13
Thomas Pham	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Francisco Cervelli	13
Ehire Adrianza	13
Yandy Diaz	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Ryan Zimmerman	13
Asdrubal Cabrera	13
Nolan Fontana	12
Martin Prado	12
Juan Lagares	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Brock Stassi	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Victor Martinez	11
Jared W. Hoying	10
Kris Bryant	10
Juan Graterol	10
Yan Gomes	10
Tyler Collins	10
Christopher Herrmann	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Jordan Luplow	10
DJ LeMahieu	10
Guillermo Heredia	10
Tom Murphy	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Zach Granite	10
Carlos Correa	10

Good luck!

August 12, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

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First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.359 — Gerardo Parra batting against Justin Nicolino
0.350 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Justin Nicolino
0.338 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Justin Nicolino
0.335 — Nolan Arenado batting against Justin Nicolino
0.326 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz
0.320 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Steven Matz
0.310 — Nick Williams batting against Steven Matz
0.304 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Stratton
0.298 — Jon Jay batting against Patrick Corbin

Nicolino sees his opponent batting lines go up every year. He doesn’t walk that many batters, probably due to his pitches being so good to hit, no one waits for the walk. He doesn’t strike out many batters at all, which means more balls in play, which means more a higher chance of a random hit.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.359, 0.774 — Gerardo Parra batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.350, 0.770 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.338, 0.760 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.295, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyson Ross.
0.302, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Stratton.
0.335, 0.750 — Nolan Arenado batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.326, 0.732 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.291, 0.728 — Jean Segura batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.320, 0.724 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Steven Matz.
0.291, 0.721 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304, 0.721 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

The NN like batters against Nicolino as well. Parra is the unanimous pick. It’s a good day to double down on the Rockies. Joey Votto, who currently has the longest hit streak in the majors at 16, and is red hot, has a probability of .685 of getting a hit today. Note that in the streak, Votto struck out just six times, and is hitting .469. Votto owns one of the highest BABIPs among active players. Lowering his strikeout rate should bring his BA way up, and right now, that is what’s happening.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Bradley Zimmer	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Jesus Aguilar	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Matthew Szczur	17
Austin Romine	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Eduardo Escobar	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Chris Davis	15
Greg Bird	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Allen Cordoba	14
Rougned Odor	14
Anthony Rendon	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Jordy Mercer	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Darwin Barney	13
Jacob Lamb	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Kelby Tomlinson	12
Martin Prado	12
Brett Gardner	12
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brock Stassi	11
Carlos Santana	11
Brian McCann	11
Salvador Perez	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Benjamin Gamel	11
Whit Merrifield	11
Eric Hosmer	11
Brandon Guyer	11
A.J. Ellis	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Alex Presley	11
Jabari Blash	10
Hyun Soo Kim	10
Gregor Blanco	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Cameron Rupp	10
Tyler Collins	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Yonder Alonso	10
Tom Murphy	10
Robbie Grossman	10
Joey Rickard	10
Zach Granite	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Carlos Correa	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Jorge Bonifacio	10
J.D. Davis	10
Lucas Duda	10
JaCoby Jones	10

Good luck!

July 6, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza
0.331 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Justin Nicolino
0.321 — James Loney batting against Justin Nicolino
0.311 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Garza
0.310 — Juan Lagares batting against Justin Nicolino
0.305 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman
0.301 — Jose Reyes batting against Justin Nicolino
0.297 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Justin Nicolino
0.297 — Danny Valencia batting against Ervin Santana
0.296 — Neil Walker batting against Justin Nicolino

Nicolino allows a .307 hit average this season, and .273 weighted average in his two years in the majors. Murphy and Ramos hit so well this year, they get in on the action.

The NN produces this top ten result:

0.339, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza.
0.282, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.292, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.267, 0.739 — Ben Revere batting against Matt Garza.
0.331, 0.731 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.321, 0.731 — James Loney batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.273, 0.725 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301, 0.724 — Jose Reyes batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.273, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez.
0.286, 0.723 — Yunel Escobar batting against Drew Smyly.
0.270, 0.723 — Buster Posey batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.275, 0.723 — Josh Harrison batting against Jaime Garcia.

The NN is a bit more about the hitters, but opponents against Nicolino still make the list a number of times.

The NN with park data changes the order to this:

0.339, 0.713 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza.
0.282, 0.709 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.292, 0.707 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.267, 0.700 — Ben Revere batting against Matt Garza.
0.273, 0.691 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez.
0.321, 0.690 — James Loney batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.331, 0.690 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.273, 0.688 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.297, 0.687 — Danny Valencia batting against Ervin Santana.
0.270, 0.687 — Buster Posey batting against Jorge de la Rosa.

All three methods agree on Daniel Murphy at the top, with Mets Cespedes and Loney the second picks. Again, your best picks will fail to get a hit 75% of the time. Good luck!

May 20, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Nationals move to Miami as Tanner Roark faces Justin Nicolino. Roark found a way to strike out batters this season, up to 8.39 per nine innings compared to his career rate of 6.41 per 9. It looks like he is using his change-up more, and using it to miss bats. Nicolino is at the opposite end of the spectrum, with just four strikeouts in 24 innings. He’s the kind of pitcher who needs a great defense behind him, since so many balls are put in play. So far, the Marlins fielder are doing their job as he allowed just 21 hits.

Dillon Gee leads the Royals against the White Sox and Jose Quintana. Gee makes his second start of the season after coming out of the bullpen. He allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings the first time out. Quintana would be the top Cy Young candidate in the league if it wasn’t for his teammate, Chris Sale. Quintana has done a good job through his career of keeping the ball in the park, but this season he took it to the next level. He allowed just one home run in 52 2/3 innings.

Finally, a battle of Jakes and a battle of first-place teams as Jake Arrieta and the Cubs face Jake Peavy and the Giants. Arrieta now owns 21 consecutive starts without a loss, gathering 18 wins in that time. He posted a 0.84 ERA in that span in 150 1/3 innings. Devon Young pointed out that over his last 203 innings, Arrieta has a 0.98 ERA. Bob Gibson posted a 0.90 ERA over 229 innings in 1967-1968. We’ll see how close Arrieta can come to that. Peavy turns hitters into MVPs this year with a .324/.380/.606 slash line so far. It’s better at home, but still a poor .319/.367/.484.

Enjoy!

May 14, 2016

Games of the Day

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Justin Nicolino takes newly minted multi-millionaire Stephen Strasburg as the Marlins continue their series with the Nationals in game one of a double header. Nicolino owns a 2.79 ERA in his three starts, thanks to one home run and six walks allowed in 19 1/3 innings. He only struck out three batters, however, so we’ll see if the high number of balls in play will eventually hurt him. Strasburg makes his first start since signing a new long-term deal. Note how close Strasburg and Max Scherzer are in terms of three-true outcomes since the start of the 2012 season, when Strasburg pitched his first full year after Tommy John surgery. The big difference was stamina, as Scherzer was able to go deeper in games.

The Pirates try to get a win against the Cubs. It will be a tough battle as Jeff Locke tries to beat Jake Arrieta. Locke’s control is off this season, going from 3.2 walks per 9 IP in 2015 to 5.2 this season. Arrieta’s undefeated streak now stands at 20 starts. It’s tough to pick the most impressive stat in that time period. It might be his 0.76 ERA. It might be that all three home runs against him were solo shots. It might be that he only allowed 24 extra bases on hits, less than the number of batters he walked. He’s holding #1 hitters to a .221 OBP, and #3 hitters to a .321 slugging percentage. He only faced a batter 40 times when he was trailing.

Enjoy!

May 8, 2016

Games of the Day

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Rookie Ross Stripling takes on Marco Estrada as the Dodgers and Blue Jays start off the Mothers Day festivities. Note that Stripling is an old rookie, seasonal age 26. Already in his peak years, he brings a good strikeout rate and the ability to prevent home runs to the Dodgers rotation. His high ERA is due to a high BA allowed with runners in scoring position. Estrada adds the third dimension of few walks to Stripling’s ability, and comes into the game with an excellent 2.64 ERA.

The Royals and Indians send Edinson Volquez and Josh Tomlin to the mound, each with a 3.13 ERA. Volquez’s ERA would be even lower but for a terrible start in Anaheim in which he allowed eight runs in five innings. Ten of his 14 runs allowed this season came in road games. Tomlin won all four of his starts, as the Indians scored six runs or more in three of the four games.

Aaron Nola and Justin Nicolino lead takes the mound as the Phillies play at the Marlins. Nola is fast becoming not only the Phillies ace, but one of the best pitchers in the league as he blows away batters with the bonus of great control. Nicolino appears to have benefited from great defense in his first two starts of the season. He allowed nine hits in 13 1/3 innings despite just two strikeouts. He’s walked five, and that ratio of walks and strikeouts (25 each for his MLB career) usually doesn’t bode well for pitchers.

The Nationals try to both prevent a sweep and stop Jake Arrieta as they send Tanner Roark against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. Roark seems to have found a strike out pitch this year as he fanned 34 batters in 38 1/3 innings to somewhat compensate for his 15 walks allowed. Arrieta tries to match the record of his cross town rival Chris Sale at 7-0. Arrieta’s undefeated streak now stretches across 19 regular season starts, 17-0 in that stretch with a 0.66 ERA. He allowed just three home runs in his last 137 1/3 innings. Even more impressive is the last calendar year of games, 33 starts with a 25-3 record. So it is possible for a pitcher to win 25 games in a season, and like Sale, I hope one of these pitchers gets to 30 in a regular season.

Enjoy!

September 20, 2015

Games of the Day

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Stephen Strasburg hosts rookie Justin Nicolino as the Nationals try to stay alive in the NL East race. Nicolino’s campaign is marked by being an extreme ball in play pitcher. Throughout his minor league career, Nicolino walked very few batters, but as he rose through the minors his strikeout rate continued to drop. He walked 15 and struck out 18 in 54 1/3 innings, but only allowed 57 hits. His FIP and xFIP are much higher than his ERA. His line drive rate is lower than average, but he’s not an extreme ground ball pitcher. It will be interesting to watch how his career develops, but I suspect he’ll need to get his K rate higher if he wants to succeed at the major league level. Strasburg seems to have returned to Baseball Jesus status with five walks and 62 strikeouts in his last 45 1/3 innings.

The Angels try to extend their winning streak as the Twins try to end theirs as Matt Shoemaker takes on Tyler Duffey. Shoemaker is 1-6 at home and 6-3 on the road, despite a 3.60 ERA at home and a 4.81 ERA on the road. The rookie Duffey owns a 2.12 ERA at Target Field in three starts, and has yet to yield a home run in the park.

The Cubs go for a sweep of the Cardinals at Wrigley as Carlos Martinez faces Jon Lester. The Cubs score against Martinez, 11 runs, all earned in 15 2/3 innings. Martinez has not taken a loss in his three starts and one relief appearance against Chicago this season. Lester is 1-2 against the Cardinals, despite a 1.78 ERA in four starts. It’s opposites day at Wrigley!

Felix Hernandez and the Mariners try to put a crimp in the Rangers division hopes against Derek Holland. The King dominated Texas this season with a 4-0 record and 1.57 ERA. He has not allowed the Rangers a home run in 28 2/3 innings this season. Holland walked just seven batters in 43 innings since coming off the disabled list, but has allowed six home runs.

This Pirates send Gerrit Cole against the Dodgers and Mike Bolsinger as Pittsburgh tries to hold on to the first wild card slot. Cole has struck out 17 and walked four without a home run in 17 1/3 September innings, but that translated to a 4.15 ERA. Bolsinger’s 3.13 ERA and low home run rate makes him a viable option for the Dodgers post-season rotation.

Finally, the Yankees send CC Sabathia against the Mets as we see how the New York NL franchise handles Matt Harvey. Sabathia is coming off a good game against the Rays. He allowed three runs in 11 1/3 innings since adopting a new knee brace, walking five and striking out 11. Harvey might be limited to four innings of work, which makes sense given his opposition batting by inning this season.

Enjoy!

September 1, 2015

Games of the Day

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The Marlins and Braves offer a nice rookie match-up as Justin Nicolino faces Manny Banuelos. Nicolino might be described as pitching to contact, as he’s walked 11 and struck out 12 in 37 IP. It’s working as opponents have a .268 BABIP against him. Banuelos has been a little wild, walking 10 in 21 1/3 innings. Opponents have only hit .226 with men on base against him, so the players who walk aren’t advancing very far.

Wily veterans Justin Verlander and Johnny Cueto square off in Kansas City. Detroit is trying to play spoiler now, although at this point there’s not much to spoil in the Royals season. Verlander is hot, having allowed a total of four runs, one earned, in his last four starts. He looks healthy for the first time in a while. Cueto allowed 13 runs, 12 earned, in his last two starts, giving up four home runs.

The best pitching match-up takes place in Los Angeles, where runner up for the Pitcher of the Month Madison Bumgarner faces likely NL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke as the Giants take on the Dodgers. The Giants ace is 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA against the Dodgers this season in three starts, striking out 21 and walking five in 20 2/3 innings. He faced Clayton Kershaw in all three games, all won by the Giants. Greinke only faced the Giants once this season, winning despite one of his poorer games. He allowed three runs in six innings.

Enjoy!