Tag Archives: Ryan Pepiot

July 20, 2025

Games of the Day

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Trevor Williams leads the Orioles against the Rays and Ryan Pepiot in one of the noon games. Rogers pitched great since returning from a knee injury, posting a 1.65 ERA in six starts. He allowed just one home run in 35 1/3 innings Pepiot induces consistently low BABIPs, .265 for this season and .252 for his career.

When I keep seeing pitchers like Pepiot, who tend to get good results despite not blowing batters away, I start to wonder if teams are prioritizing defense to try to get more innings out of their starters, which also leads to lower offense, and the league is heading for a downward spiral.

Nick Pivetta and MacKenzie Gore square off in Washington as the Padres visit the Nationals. Pivetta provides the counter argument to Pepiot. Since Pivetta upped his K rate in 2023, his BABIPs have been consistently below his career average of .300. Gore suffers support issues as his 3.02 ERA is only good for a 4-8 record. The bullpen allowed 46 runs in 58 1/3 innings, and that’s not counting inherited runners that scored.

The Royals try to stop the Marlins juggernaut as Kris Bubic takes on Janson Junk. Bubic’s 2.48 ERA comes from his ability to limit home runs, with just six allowed in 108 2/3 innings. Junk’s balls stay in the park as well with just one HR allowed in 50 1/3 innings.

The Mariners try to gain another game on the Astros as Hunter Brown visits Bryan Woo in Seattle. Brown lowered his ERA over a run compared to 2024 by reducing his BABIP from .307 to .251. Woo issued just one walk in 17 2/3 innings against the Astros in his career.

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July 13, 2025

Games of the Day

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The Rays take on the red hot Red Sox as Ryan Pepiot faces Brayan Bello. The Red Sox go for their tenth straight win. Both own similar ERAs, and both limit hits, but Pepiot does it with a higher K rate, while Bello seems to trade hits for walks.

The Mets send Clay Holmes against the Royals and Noah Cameron. Holmes owns a decent .313 opposition OBP, but removed 12 of those runners with GDPs and caught stealing. Cameron, in his first season, owns a 2.56 ERA in 63 1/3 innings. He held the opposition to a .199 BABIP as he takes advantage of the Royals defense.

The state of Texas Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers against Hunter Brown of the Astros. Eovaldi allowed three earned runs in fourteen inning since his return from the illjured list. The pair is one-two in ERA in the AL among pitchers with 80 IP. (See link above.)

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June 27, 2025

Games of the Day

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Two AL East games could lead to tightening at the top of the division. The Rays send Ryan Pepiot against the Orioles and Tomoyuki Sugano. Pepiot is well on his way to reach the 162 inning qualifying mark for a season for the first time. While none of his three true outcomes are outstanding, all are very good. Sugano, at 5-4, owns a winning record on a losing team. He induced eight double plays in 55 opportunities this season.

The Blue Jays travel to Boston as Jose Berrios faces Brayan Bello. Berrios is one of those pitchers who is seeing more contact against him without being hurt. Since the start of the 2024 season, his K rate held below 8.0 per 9 IP, but the BABIP against is well below his career .290 mark. Bello allowed a .340 OBP this season, but a lack of power against him kept his ERA from getting out of hand.

The Rangers host the Mariners, Texas 1 1/2 games behind Seattle for the third wild card in the AL. Logan Gilbert takes on Nathan Eovaldi. Gilbert pitched just 40 1/3 innings this season, but struck out 60 batters with just seven walks. Eovaldi holds opponents to ridiculously low numbers, a .227 OPB and a .277 slugging percentage.

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June 5, 2025

Games of the Day

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The Phillies face the Blue Jays with Jesus Luzardo taking on Chris Bassitt. Luzardo rebounded from elbow and back injuries in 2024 than limited his strikeout rate. He is back over 10 K per 9 IP in 2025. Bassitt allowed just 15 walks in 66 1/3 innings. The Phillies batters rank 6th in the majors in walks drawn.

Jack Leiter leads the Rangers against the Rays’ Ryan Pepiot. Leiter comes into the game with a 3.66 ERA. He cut his home run rate in half compared to his brief rookie stint in 2024. The league is slugging just .302 against him. Pepiot does a great job of keeping batters off base, with a career .290 opposition OBP in 278 1/3 innings. It looks even better as he removed 16 runners with double plays and 13 with caught stealing and pickoffs.

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April 2, 2025

Games of the Day

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The Pirates send Paul Skenes against the Rays and Ryan Pepiot in Tampa. Skenes, in his brief carrer, struck out more than five times the number of batters he walked, and he struck our over eleven batters per 9 IP. Pepiot comes off a solid first start of the season in which he walked one and struck out eight in six innings.

Tarik Skubal leads the Tigers against the Mariners and Luis Castillo in an early start on the west coast. Skubal struck out nine Mariners in each of his three starts against them. Since joining the Mariners Castillo owns a 3.44 ERA in 75 starts, but just a 29-24 record.

Garrett Crochet and Zach Eflin battle in Baltimore as the Red Sox visit the Orioles. Crochet makes his first start with a new long-term contract in place. Crochet only pitched eight innings against the Orioles in his career, but struck out 14 and walked one. Eflin made ten strong starts since the Orioles acquired him from the Rays, posting a 6-2 record and a 2.64 ERA. He walked just 12 batters in 61 1/3 innings.

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March 28, 2025

Games of the Day

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The Rockies visit the Rays as the two teams play the last opener of 2025. Kyle Freeland takes on Ryan Pepiot. The Rays open at their emergency home at George Steinbrenner field in Tampa. Freeland currently ranks fifth on the Rockies all-time win list, and a good season by him could raise him to second. Pepiot has a short but successful MLB career, with a 13-9 record and a 3.28 ERA in 208 1/3 innings. While stingy with hits, he has a tendency to give up the long ball.

The Braves and Padres continue their opening series with Reynaldo Lopez facing Dylan Cease. Lopez comes off his best season, posting a 1.99 ERA for the Braves in 135 2/3 innings. His big improvement came from cutting his home run run nearly in half from his career average. Cease tied his single season high in wins with 14 in 2024, and his 189 1/3 innings stands as the most he pitched in a year. He allowed just 11 home runs.

Finally, the Tigers and Dodgers offer another good pitching matchup as Jack Flaherty battles Yoshinobu Yamamoto. After two down seasons, Flaherty returned to form in 2024, pitching well for both the Tigers and Dodgers, and bringing home a World Series right. The Tigers brought him back at a good price, and also have a nice catching prospect as part of the transactions. Yamamoto produced a successful rookie year for Los Angels in just 90 innings. With his action in Tokyo, he is now 8-2 in 19 starts with a 2.94 ERA. He is extremely stingy issuing walks.

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September 24, 2024

Three Times Through

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Over on X there a discussion of how the number of batters faced after two times through the order changed during the years.

Bill James would like to know if this really is a good strategy.

As this discussion was going on, Ryan Pepiot got him self in trouble in the fifth inning. A walk and a single put two men on base with one out, the Tigers batting order coming up for the third time in the game. The Tigers broadcast flashed a graphic that Pepiot’s OPS was in the 600s the first two times through the order, then in the 900s the third time though the order. Parker Meadows then battled him for a walk to load the bases, Kerry Carpenter popped out on the first pitch, then Wenceel Perez battled, fouling off a number of pitches before bouncing a line drive down the rightfield line into the stands for a two-run double.

On the other hand Tarik Skubal faced five batters the third time through the lineup, and put out all five. He left after seven innings due to his pitch count, 103 being the most he threw in a game this season.

The Tigers won the game 2-1, so the performance of the two pitchers in the third-time through situation was in fact the game.

The Tigers maintain a wild card slot for at least another day. The Rays chance of making the playoffs got a lot slimmer.

April 1, 2024

Games of the Day

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Opening day in Washington get MG as a sponsor as Marco Gonzales of the Pirates takes on MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. Gonzalez returns to the National League for the first time since 2017 when he pitched for the Cardinals. His low K rate allows lots of balls in play, but his .291 BABIP means that he limits hits. Gore walks a ton of batters, and needs to get that under control to move to the next level. He was better at that in the minor leagues.

The Rangers go on the road to face the Rays with Dane Dunning taking the mound against Ryan Pepiot. Dunning saw his K rate degrade each year of his career, but he brought his home run and walk rates down to compensate. Pepiot owns a 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 MLB innings, but his FIPs are much higher. He did pitch well with runners in scoring position.

Finally, the Giants travel to Los Angeles to meet their ancient rivals the Dodgers. Keaton Winn hurls against James Paxton. In his brief MLB time, Winn posted a walk rate of 1.7 per nine innings. That was his strength in the minors as well, but not quite that good. Paxton abandoned his cut fastball for a slider last season, He had to recover from both Tommy John surgery and a subsequent lat tear. It’s possible he can’t throw the pitch anymore.

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December 16, 2023

Glasnow Paid Now

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Tyler Glasnow agreed to a contract extension that allowed the Dodgers and Rays to finalize a four-player swap:

The Dodgers and Rays finalized the four-player trade that will sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4M in cash considerations to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca.  News of the trade first broke a few days ago, with the final hurdle being the Dodgers’ ability to sign Glasnow to a contract extension.  That deal has now also been completed, with L.A. announcing that Glasnow has agreed to a new long-term pact worth $136.5M.  Glasnow is represented by Wasserman.

YardBarker.com

The deal contains no deferred money.

Glasnow posted xFIPs under three in each of the last five seasons, while his ERA have been all over the place. The Rays tend to put very good defenses on the field, so this is a good example of how a pitcher can be consistently good in the things he can control and still have what look like good and okay years in terms of ERA. Margot is a backup with a decent BA, but his OBP and slugging percentage come in low.

Pepiot seems to be the opposite of Glasnow. His ERA, at both the minor and major league level is much better than his FIPs. He walks a lot of batters, but given his low opposition BABIP, hitters don’t make solid contact against him. The are just not enough hits to advance the walked runners.

Deluca showed a lot of power in the minors, and his OBP rose as he worked his way up the levels. He should be a much better bat than Margot.

I will point out that the Dodgers had to make a deal like this due to a somewhat weak pitching staff. I am so used to the Dodgers pulling great pitchers out of their farm system that this comes as a bit of a shock. While the Dodgers have plenty of good bats, they may not have much room for error on offense. A couple of key injuries to the lineup might bring them to the level of their pitching, and then a division victory may not be all that inevitable.

September 7, 2023

Games of the Day

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The Marlins go for a sweep of the Dodgers in Miami as Ryan Pepiot faces Braxton Garrett. Pepiot is just 50 1/3 innings into his MLB career over two seasons. He proved tough to hit so far with just 34 hits allowed. This season, he so far has his walks under control, with a WHIP of 0.71. Garrett pitched 52 more innings than last season with two fewer walks than in 2022. A higher home run rate, however, kept his ERA from going down.

The Mariners visit the Rays for a weekend series, with Luis Castillo and Zack Littell kicking off the important games as both teams race to win a division. Castillo comes in with a 3.19 ERA, having struck out 183 batters while walking just 40. He does allow a high number of home runs, and the Rays are good at driving the ball out of the park. Littell owns good three true outcome numbers, but still owns a 4.69 ERA. He is terrible with the bases empty, so even though he pitches well with men on base, he is in the situation so much that runs just bleed across the plate.

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August 24, 2023

Games of the Day

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The scheduled game in Cleveland features the Dodgers sending Ryan Pepiot against the Guardians and Gavin Williams. Pepiot pitched 41 1/3 innings in his professional career with mixed results. He limits hits, with just 29 allowed, but gives up home runs and walks, 28 of the latter. All in all, it works out to a decent 3.27 ERA. The rookie Williams stands 1-4 in eleven starts despite a 3.02 ERA. The Guardians scored two runs or less in six of his starts.

Boston tries to gain another game on Houston as Brayan Bello faces JP France. Bello recovered from a poor July in which he allowed a 5.48 ERA, posting a 3.86 ERA so far in August. He allowed just three home runs this month compared to seven in July. France uses the Houston defense effectively to allow a .246 BA despite just 80 K in 108 innings.

Enjoy!