Tag Archives: Matt Moore

August 31, 2023

Guardian Angels

1 Reply

The Guardians claimed three of the players the Angels placed on waviers:

After placing six players on waivers Tuesday, the Angels lost right-handed starter Lucas Giolito, left-handed reliever Matt Moore and right-handed reliever Reynaldo Lopez to the Guardians. Two other former Angels players — outfielder Hunter Renfroe (Cincinnati Reds) and reliever Dominic Leone (Seattle Mariners) — were also claimed.

Every team was eligible to claim players, who would be awarded in reverse order of record. Cleveland surprised the industry by claiming the three best pitchers available despite carrying a 64-70 record and sitting five games behind first-place Minnesota in the American League Central. 

“Whether or not we can close the gap that’s in front of us, we don’t know,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said Thursday. “But we want to try.

ESPN.com

Cleveland should know Giolito well, as he faced them many times with Chicago. In six starts in Cleveand, Giolito went 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA. Moore owned a 2.66 ERA this season with a high K rate and a low walk rate. Lopez blows away batters, but also walks quite a few. This does make Cleveland a better team, but it remains to be seen if they can convert that into a division win.

April 5, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Orioles take their undefeated record into New York as Jorge Lopez battles the Yankees and Jordan Montgomery. Lopez owns a 6.03 career ERA, as he tends to get hammered with home runs. Montgomery is similar, but a higher K rate and a bit lower home run rate give him a 4.14 career ERA. We will see if the newer ball helps them.

The Mets finally play a game as they take on the Phillies with Jacob deGrom facing Matt Moore. deGrom owns the best ERA in the majors since the start of the 2017 season, 2.53. Moore last pitched in 2019 when he made two starts and did not allow a run in ten innings, walking one and striking out nine. The Phillies hope they get something close to that.

Enjoy!

June 10, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.382 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore.
0.354 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.337 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Matt Moore.
0.316 — George Springer batting against Matt Moore.
0.313 — Michael Brantley batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.313 — Kris Bryant batting against Ivan Nova.
0.311 — Kevin Pillar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.309 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.308 — Tommy La Stella batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307 — Willson Contreras batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.303 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.301 — Adam Jones batting against Marco Estrada.
0.300 — Christian Yelich batting against Zach Eflin.
0.300 — Ben Zobrist batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Carlos Correa batting against Matt Moore.
0.299 — Brian Anderson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.297 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Manny Machado batting against Marco Estrada.
0.297 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Dwight Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295 — Alex Bregman batting against Matt Moore.

Both predicted hit averages for Altuve and Almora are astronomical. Opponents are hitting .341 against Moore this season, while Nova allows a high BA and a low OBP. Both batters and both pitchers collect and allow hits at a way above average rate, and those combinations produce a high Log5 result. Altuve is 4 for 12 against Moore, Almora 0 for 3 against Nova.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.382, 0.791 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Moore.
0.354, 0.756 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.337, 0.739 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Matt Moore.
0.313, 0.739 — Michael Brantley batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.288, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.305, 0.730 — Eddie Rosario batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.307, 0.725 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298, 0.723 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.287, 0.718 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zachary Godley.
0.301, 0.717 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.287, 0.716 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zachary Godley.
0.291, 0.715 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zachary Godley.
0.289, 0.713 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zachary Godley.
0.300, 0.713 — Christian Yelich batting against Zach Eflin.
0.287, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286, 0.711 — Jose Ramirez batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.255, 0.711 — Scooter Gennett batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.280, 0.710 — Jose Abreu batting against Rick Porcello.
0.301, 0.708 — Adam Jones batting against Marco Estrada.
0.264, 0.707 — Matt Kemp batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.299, 0.706 — Brian Anderson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.316, 0.704 — George Springer batting against Matt Moore.
0.274, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.313, 0.702 — Kris Bryant batting against Ivan Nova.
0.275, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.309, 0.701 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.

There is perfect 1-2 agreement between the two systems. Altuve’s .791 probability of a hit is the highest generated this season.

The NN ran 70 days so far this season. Based on the daily predictions it should be right 73.8% of the time, and generated 52 days with hits. It’s been right 82.9% of the time and generated 58 days with hits. It’s current streak is five days, and generated a streak of six, two streaks of seven, two streaks of eight, and a streak of ten. The NN had favorable luck so far this season.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

May 30, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.375 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Moore.
0.328 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.321 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.320 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.319 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fiers.
0.314 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.313 — Ryon Healy batting against Matt Moore.
0.311 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.310 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.309 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin.
0.304 — Mitch Haniger batting against Matt Moore.
0.302 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.300 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Matt Moore.
0.298 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ross Stripling.
0.296 — Brandon Belt batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.296 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.294 — Evan Longoria batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.288 — Guillermo Heredia batting against Matt Moore.
0.288 — Brian Anderson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Jason Vargas.
0.284 — Miguel Rojas batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283 — Austin Jackson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281 — Nelson Cruz batting against Matt Moore.

Segura against Moore produces a huge probable hit average. Since the start of the 2016 season Segura hit .314 with a .358 OBP. Moore allowed a .272 BA and a .341 OBP. This year, however, Moore is at .344/.419 and that one year average looms large in the calculation. It is especially bad since the MLB hit average is very low, .222.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.375, 0.776 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Moore.
0.309, 0.733 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin.
0.320, 0.732 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Clayton Richard.
0.266, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Severino.
0.319, 0.730 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Michael Fiers.
0.328, 0.726 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.274, 0.726 — Scooter Gennett batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.314, 0.726 — Starlin Castro batting against Clayton Richard.
0.321, 0.726 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.293, 0.724 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.263, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.310, 0.720 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.297, 0.716 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ross Stripling.
0.272, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.276, 0.709 — Mookie Betts batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.275, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Derek Holland.
0.313, 0.708 — Ryon Healy batting against Matt Moore.
0.311, 0.708 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.270, 0.704 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brad Keller.
0.296, 0.703 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.263, 0.701 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Derek Holland.
0.302, 0.700 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.259, 0.697 — Wilson Ramos batting against Sean Manaea.
0.265, 0.697 — Gerardo Parra batting against Derek Holland.
0.260, 0.696 — Starling Marte batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.262, 0.696 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Julio Teheran.

The NN also produces a huge lead for Segura. The .776 is the highest probability for a batter calculated this season. Here are the parameters for the match-up, all hit averages (Hits/PA):

Parameters: [Pit 2018, Pit 2016-2018, Bat 2018, Bat 2016-2018, Non-pit LgAvg 2018, Park Avg. 2016-2018]
Parameters: [‘0.300’, ‘0.263’, ‘0.316’, ‘0.292’, ‘0.222’, ‘0.223’]

The three-year hit averages dominate the calculation, but when both one year numbers are high, as here, it gives the probability a big boost. Segura is just 2 for 10 against Moore in his career, but with only one strikeout.

J.T. Realmuto is the consensus second choice. Note also that Michael Brantley is working on an 18 game hit streak.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

May 7, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.319 — Nick Castellanos batting against Matt Moore.
0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Brett Anderson.
0.299 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey.
0.290 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Matt Moore.
0.289 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.286 — Leonys Martin batting against Matt Moore.
0.284 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.284 — James McCann batting against Matt Moore.
0.283 — John Hicks batting against Matt Moore.
0.282 — Victor Martinez batting against Matt Moore.
0.281 — Jed Lowrie batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.279 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brett Anderson.
0.277 — Carlos Correa batting against Brett Anderson.
0.269 — Grayson J Greiner batting against Matt Moore.
0.269 — Jose Iglesias batting against Matt Moore.
0.268 — Matt Boyd batting against Matt Moore.
0.267 — Mike Gerber batting against Matt Moore.
0.267 — Nick Hundley batting against Zach Eflin.
0.266 — Michael Fulmer batting against Matt Moore.
0.265 — Juan Lagares batting against Homer Bailey.
0.265 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Homer Bailey.
0.263 — Victor Reyes batting against Matt Moore.
0.262 — Mikie Mahtook batting against Matt Moore.
0.261 — JaCoby Jones batting against Matt Moore.
0.258 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.258 — Evan Longoria batting against Zach Eflin.
0.258 — George Springer batting against Brett Anderson.
0.258 — Jose Peraza batting against P.J. Conlon.

It should be a good evening for the Tigers, as Matt Moore allows a .344/.413/.536 slash line this year. Castellanos is a high hit, low walk hitter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Brett Anderson.
0.319, 0.718 — Nick Castellanos batting against Matt Moore.
0.299, 0.712 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey.
0.289, 0.708 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.284, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.279, 0.702 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brett Anderson.
0.281, 0.698 — Jed Lowrie batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.277, 0.693 — Carlos Correa batting against Brett Anderson.
0.254, 0.685 — Starlin Castro batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.256, 0.680 — Eddie Rosario batting against John Gant.
0.290, 0.676 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Matt Moore.
0.258, 0.676 — Jose Peraza batting against 18213.
0.267, 0.675 — Nick Hundley batting against Zach Eflin.
0.255, 0.674 — Scooter Gennett batting against P.J. Conlon.
0.282, 0.672 — Victor Martinez batting against Matt Moore.
0.248, 0.671 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Fernando Romero.
0.265, 0.670 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Homer Bailey.
0.244, 0.670 — Trea Turner batting against Tyson Ross.
0.249, 0.669 — Yadier Molina batting against Fernando Romero.
0.246, 0.669 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyson Ross.
0.242, 0.669 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.283, 0.668 — John Hicks batting against Matt Moore.
0.256, 0.668 — Austin Jackson batting against Zach Eflin.
0.254, 0.666 — Josh Reddick batting against Brett Anderson.
0.240, 0.665 — Eric Hosmer batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.284, 0.665 — James McCann batting against Matt Moore.
0.255, 0.665 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Jeff Samardzija.

This is a tough one to call. Anderson’s three-year numbers are poor, and Altuve’s three-year numbers are great, which is why Altuve pops to the top of the list. Castellanos versus Moore is better this year. If Anderson has turned a corner Altuve might not do as well. Of course, Moore might find himself as Jordan Zimmermann did recently. They are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

October 11, 2016

Moore is Even More

Leave a reply

Matt Moore goes eight innings, throwing 120 pitches. He holds an excellent Cubs offense to two hits, two walks, and two runs, while striking out 10. Mostly, he saves the Giants bullpen after a 13 inning game the night before. I assume he won’t pitch the ninth after throwing 120 pitches, but you never know with the Giants. San Francisco leads Chicago 5-2 in the bottom of the eighth as they look to send the series back to the Windy City.

October 11, 2016

Moore is More

Leave a reply

Matt Moore comes up with the bases loaded and one out in the bottom of the fourth. He falls behind 0-2 the hits a single to rightfield to give the Giants a 2-1. He sets up the top of the Giants order for a big inning against the Cubs. John Lackey made a big mistake on that pitch.

Denard Span follows with a ground ball to first. The Cubs try to turn a 3-6-1 double play, but Lackey can’t hold the bag, and the Giants lead 3-1.

Update: A fly out ends the inning, but the Giants get to defend a two-run lead.

October 11, 2016

Playoffs Today, Take Two

Leave a reply

The Nationals and Dodgers made their choices, and Joe Ross takes the ball for Washington against Clayton Kershaw. In terms of three-true outcomes, Ross did everything well in 2016. He struck out 93 in 105 innings with 29 walks and nine home runs. All those numbers are good, none of them are outstanding. He only pitched 9 2/3 innings after coming back from an injury, but struck out 14.

The Kershaw gambit is the interesting one. The other choice, Julio Urias, is quite a bit like Joe Ross. So if it is Urias and Ross, the Dodgers probably have a 50/50 chance of winning game four. Then Kershaw and Max Scherzer face off Thursday. Those two pitchers are also comparable, so there is a 50/50 chance of the Dodgers winning game five, or a 25% chance of the Dodgers winning the series. Normally, I’d say there is an 80% chance of Kershaw beating Ross, and assuming Rich Hill pitches Thursday, a 60% chance of Scherzer winning that game. So that gives the Dodgers a 32% chance of winning the series. I don’t think Kershaw has an 80% chance of beating Ross today. If that probability is 60% in Kershaw’s favor, then the Dodgers would be better off waiting the extra two days. Kershaw started game one strong, striking out the first three batters he faced. After that, the Nationals started putting men on base, collecting eight hits in five innings. The Dodgers bullpen is stretched thin after yesterday, and they can’t expect Kershaw to go deep in the game.

I suspect the Dodgers have a much better grasp of the probabilities than I do, but I’d rather have two 50/50 chances to win, than a 60% of losing game five.

The Cubs try to stop the Giants streak of winning elimination games as John Lackey faces Matt Moore. Lackey pitched well down the stretch, with a 2.34 ERA in his last nine starts. He did show some control issues toward the end of the season, with nine walks in his last four starts. Moore had a rough time overall with the Giants, but seemed to put things together in his last two starts, striking out 17 in 15 2/3 innings and walking just two.

Enjoy!

October 2, 2016

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

All games Sunday begin at 3:05 PM EDT.

The Blue Jays and the Red Sox play an extremely meaningful game. A win by the Blue Jays clinches the top wild card seed. A win by the Red Sox gives them a shot at the second seed in the AL playoffs. Aaron Sanchez takes on David Price. Sanchez pretty much blew away any innings limit that was in place, as the playoffs took precedence over protecting his career, basically making the opposite decision of the Nationals in 2012. Sanchez is 8-1 with a 2.56 ERA on the road, allowing just six home runs in 105 2/3 innings. The Red Sox, however, have scored 11 runs in 17 1/3 innings against him. Price is 9-3 at home, but with a 4.21 ERA. He allowed 16 home runs in 109 innings at Fenway this season, but has a 2.66 ERA against Toronto this year. Flip a coin.

The Orioles can clinch a wild card slot with a win against the Yankees. Kevin Gausman takes on Luis Cessa. Gausman dominated the Yankees this season with a 0.80 ERA in five starts. He struck out 32, walked five, and allowed one home run to New York in 33 2/3 innings. Despite that, his record is just 2-1. Cessa threw a lot of gopher balls this season, 15 in 64 2/3 innings. Nine of those came in 31 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium. His OBP against is just .290, so the great majority of his 32 runs allowed came on homers.

The Giants can clinch the second NL Wild Card with a win against the Dodgers. Kenta Maeda takes on Matt Moore. Maeda finishes up a fine rookie season in which he pitched as well at Dodger Stadium as he did on the road. To the delight of Dodgers fans, he is 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA against the Giants in three starts. The move of Moore from the AL to the NL did not help his numbers, as his walks and home runs remained high.

Detroit needs to win to have a shot at a wild card, and they send their ace, Justin Verlander, against the Braves and Julio Teheran. Verlander leads the AL in Tom Tango Cy Young tracker points, and a big win in a big game might put him over the top with voters. It’s a great comeback season for Verlander. Teheran represents the best starter on the Braves. It’s good to see Atlanta is not lying down for the last game at Turner Field. Teheran holds a 3.15 ERA against the AL this season, but due to weak offense, he is 0-3 in those three starts.

A win for the Indians could clinch the second AL seed if it is combined with a Boston loss. Otherwise, the Indians may need to play on Monday to decide seeding, even if Detroit is out of the wild card race. Josh Tomlin takes the hill against the Royals and Ian Kennedy. Tomlin is a control artist, with just 20 walks in 166 2/3 innings, limiting the damage from his 35 home runs allowed. Kennedy owns a 5.76 ERA against the Indians in five starts this season, allowing eight home runs in 29 2/3 innings. This could be the slugfest of the day.

Finally, the Cardinals need to win to have a shot at tying the Giants for the second wild card slot in the NL and forcing a playoff game. They host Pittsburgh, with Ryan Vogelsong of the Bucs taking on Adam Wainwright. Vogelsong seems done, as he made five starts in September and posted an 8.72 ERA. Wainwright finished his worst season on a weak note, posting a 5.46 ERA in five September starts. Somehow, he managed a 4-1 record.

Enjoy!

September 16, 2016

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Tigers stand six games behind the Indians with seven head-to-head games between the two clubs. Detroit visits Cleveland for the a three-game set with Michael Fulmer facing Corey Kluber. With the game tonight, Fulmer will have made two thirds of his starts on the road, where he owns an 8-4 record and a 2.68 ERA. He hasn’t won much lately, as the Tigers scored three runs or less in five of his last seven starts. Kluber turned his record around from last season, going 9-16 in 2015, 16-9 in 2016. He owns the best ERA in the American League since the All-Star break.

Max Scherzer tries to solidify his Cy Young credentials as the Nationals take on the Braves and John Gant. Scherzer’s second-half surge is due to him bringing home runs under control. He allowed 21 HR in his first 127 2/3 innings, just five HR in his last 76 IP (since the All-Star break). That lowered his ERA about 0.6 runs. Rookie Gant owns great strikeout and good walk numbers, but allowed six home runs in his first 43 innings.

Finally, the Cardinals try to even their series with the Giants as Luke Weaver battles Matt Moore. This is a big start for the rookie Weaver, as the Cardinals are one game behind the Mets for the second wild card, and two games behind the Giants for the first slot. Like Gant, Weaver shows great control, but is a little too generous giving up home runs, five in 31 innings. Moore allowed two runs or less in five of his eight starts since joining the Giants.

Enjoy!

September 11, 2016

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The weekend worked out well for the Yankees so far as they go for their eighth win in a row Sunday afternoon against the Rays. The four teams ahead of them in the AL East/Wild Card races played head-to-head and split their first two games, while the Yankees took the first three from Tampa Bay. So the Yankees gained one game on all four teams and now are tied with Detroit, one game out of the second wild card, and three games back of Boston for the division title (in fourth place). The play 14 games against the three teams ahead of them in the division race down the stretch. On Sunday Matt Andriese takes on Luis Cessa. Andriese’s 4.58 ERA seems much higher than it should be. He owns a great strikeout to walk ratio, and a reverse platoon split, where righties hit him much better than lefties. He is easy to run on, however, as opponents are 14-0 against him in stolen base attempts. Cessa ERA is 3.09 as a starter versus 5.30 as a reliever, but his three-true outcome rates are about the same. His whole season is a small sample size.

Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz gets another chance as a starter as Boston faces Toronto and Aaron Sanchez. Buchholz allowed 18 home runs in 94 2/3 innings as a starter this season, and Toronto is a team that can rake. Buchholz has held the Blue Jays scoreless in 8 2/3 innings he pitched against them this season. Sanchez makes his third start against Boston this year, 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA. He has not allowed a home run to the Red Sox in 13 2/3 innings.

The Orioles try to hold off the Tigers from tying for the second wild card slot as Chris Tillman battle Justin Verlander. Tillman pitched well on the road this season, 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA, over a run better than pitching in Baltimore. Both his walks and strikeouts allowed are lower away. Verlander recorded 209 strikeouts this season, having gone the previous two seasons without reaching that milestone. Since the All-Star break he is 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA, walking 14 and striking out 89 in 77 2/3 innings.

The NL Wild Card race is very tight as well, with 1 1/2 games separating the Giants, Cardinals, and Mets. New York sends Seth Lugo against the Braves and Williams Perez. Lugo is off to a great start in his career, allowing just two home runs in his first 41 2/3 innings. Perez allowed six home runs in 51 innings this season.

Milwaukee sends Zack Davies against the Cardinals and Luke Weaver. Davies is a bit of bright spot for the Brewers in 2016, 10-7 with a 4.01 ERA. He shows great control, striking out 120 and walking just 36 in 146 innings. Weaver is another power pitcher the Cardinals had in stock in the minors. He struck out 31 in his first 25 MLB innings, at seasonal age 22.

Finally, the Giants send Matt Moore against the Diamondbacks and Zack Greinke. Moore has been a bit of a disappointment for San Francisco, walking 25 batters in 39 2/3 innings, resulting in a 4.31 ERA. Grienke has been an even bigger disappointment for the Diamondbacks, and his signing, along with Shelby Miller, may lead to a shake up in the front office. Grienke is 2-2 with 7.76 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break, allowing nine home runs in 31 1/3 innings

Enjoy!

August 26, 2016

Moore is Less

2 Replies

Matt Moore threw a one-hitter Thursday night as the Giants the Dodgers 4-0 to salvage the last game of the series. Moore was one out away from a no-hitter when Corey Seager singled on his bobblehead night. Moore’s pitch count was high:

Moore’s try ended on his 133rd pitch. It was Seager Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium, and a sellout crowd cheered Moore after the ball plopped onto the grass in shallow right field.

Moore was pulled immediately. Giants manager Bruce Bochy had been pacing in the dugout for a couple of innings as Moore’s pitch count climbed – he missed most of the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery.

“He was excited to have a chance at it. He was very grateful and said, `thanks, I appreciate you giving me a chance,” Bochy said. “He didn’t show any signs of frustration or disappointing end to give up a hit there. He pitched his heart out.”

The conundrum for a modern manager, pulling a pitcher when he is going for a rare feat. We will see if there is any damage down the line. Moore walked three and struck out seven, and Brandon Belt drove home the first run for the Giants in the fourth inning, and Joe Panik followed with a two run homer. That was more than enough to win the game.

August 25, 2016

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rays try for a split of their series with Boston as the Red Sox send Drew Pomeranz against Jake Odorizzi. Pomeranz has been a bit of a disappointment for the Red Sox, going 2-2 in seven starts with a 4.23 ERA. The ballpark and division may make a difference, as he allowed eight home runs in 102 innings for the Padres, eight home runs in 38 1/3 innings for Boston. Odorizzi owns a 3.06 ERA at home, where he allowed 10 of his 22 home runs. He’s pitched 16 more innings at home, so that difference is larger than it looks.

Former Rays starter Matt Moore takes the mound for the Giants as they try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. Ross Stripling hurls for Los Angeles. Moore is also a bit of a disappointment, 0-3 with a 4.70 ERA since joining San Francisco. He walked 17 in 23 innings with the Giants, after walking 40 in 130 innings with the Rays. Rookie Stripling pitched poorly at home this season, 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA at Dodger Stadium. He allowed four of his six home runs at home.

Enjoy!

August 15, 2016

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Red Sox make a one-day trip to Cleveland for an afternoon make-up game as Drew Pomeranz takes on Josh Tomlin. Pomeranz owns a 5.26 ERA in five starts for Boston. He allowed six home runs in those games after allowing eight HR in 17 starts for the Padres. Tomlin is no stranger to the long ball as his 27 home runs is tied for the MLB lead.

The latest game of the day pits former Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong against his old team as the Pirates face recent San Francisco acquisition Matt Moore. Vogelsong pitched better this season as a starter, posting a 0.95 ERA in his four starts, a 4.91 ERA in his 10 relief appearances. He walked 10 as a reliever, just two as a starter. Moore makes his third start for the Giants, and he walked 11 in 12 innings since joining the NL West race.

Enjoy!

August 1, 2016

Matt for Matt

2 Replies

The Giants acquired Matt Moore from the Rays for Matt Duffy and prospects:

The Rays also got shortstop Lucius Fox and right-hander Michael Santos in the deal.

Duffy is currently injured. Fox is about as raw a prospect as a team can get, 18 years old and playing in the Sally League. (No word if he’s invented anything new for Bruce Wayne.) Santos is seasonal age 21 on the same A ball team, and walks very few batters. The Rays continue to be good at stock piling young talent.

April 17, 2016

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Jose Quintana faces Matt Moore as the first place White Sox take on the last place Rays. Quintana is off to a great three-true outcomes start. He struck out 12 in 11 2/3 innings while walking three with no home runs allowed. Moore walked three and struck out 11 in 12 innings this year. His K/BB is usually closer to two.

Aaron Sanchez and Steven Wright battle in Boston as the Blue Jays play game three of their four-game series. Sanchez allowed three runs so far, two of them earned. Those two came on solo home runs. The opposition is 1 for 17 against him with runners on base. Wright owns a 3.26 ERA in his career at Fenway, thanks to his ability to limit walks.

Kris Medlen makes his second start of the season for the Royals as they take on the Athletics and Chris Bassitt. Since moving into the Royals rotation in August of last year (working his way back slowly from surgery), Medlen owns a 4.41 ERA, but pitched well enough to go 6-2 in his nine starts. The high ERA is due mostly to two poor starts. Bassitt owns a low ERA despite seven walks and just eight strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. Walks in parity with strikeouts tends to be a bad sign for a pitcher. The opposition is just 3 for 17 with runners on base, however.

Finally, the Giants and Dodgers square off Sunday night with new additions Jeff Samardzija and Kenta Maeda taking the mound. The Giants lead the season series 4-2, both teams coming into the contest with 7-5 records. Samardzija makes his third start, all on the road. So far he gives up hits with men on first base, but not with the bases empty or with men in scoring position. Maeda has yet to allow a run. In 12 innings he allowed 10 hits and one walk. He is even more extreme that Samardzija, allowing no hits with men in scoring position this season.

Enjoy!

April 12, 2016

More Moore

Leave a reply

Matt Moore stretched himself for the Rays, pitching seven strong innings against the Indians Tuesday night. He walked one and struck out five, bringing his two start totals to three walks and 11 K in 12 innings. He only made 14 starts over the previous two seasons due to injury. If he is back and in control, the Rays have one more piece of the puzzle in place.

The Rays take the game 5-1.

July 12, 2015

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The last day of games before the All-Star break starts with a fine match-up, as Sonny Gray and the Athltics take on Corey Kluber and the Indians. Gray missed a start due to a stomach ailment, but came back to pitch a decent game against the Yankees on July 7th. Kluber is pitching very much like his 2014 season in terms of three-true outcomes. In fact, his FIP and xFIP are almost identical. Once difference is that last season, batters hit .207/.277/.284 with runners in scoring position. This season, that line is .286/.367/.429.

Lance McCullers tries to stop Houston’s losing streak as he takes on Matt Moore and the Rays. McCullers is an excellent rookie of the year candidate, sporting a 2.16 ERA. He’s allowed just two home runs in 58 1/3 innings. Moore’s return from Tommy John surgery is disappointing so far, with eight runs allowed on 15 hits and four walks in nine innings. The Rays could really use him returning to form.

Matt Scherzer won’t pitch in the All-Star game as he starts today. That also means he can start next Friday when the Nationals return to play, basically getting an extra start from the work-horse for the season. He takes on Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles. Chen owns a 2.82 ERA despite allowing 17 home runs in 102 innings. Fourteen of those were solo shots.

The final game of first part of the season pits Tim Cooney and the Cardinals against Francisco Liriano and the Pirates. Cooney made three starts in the majors so far, but he’s proving to be the type of high strikeout, low walk pitcher the Cardinals have in deep reserve in their system. Liriano pitched okay against the Cardinals this year. He struck out 14 and walked four in 14 1/3 innings, but allowed seven runs, six earned.

Enjoy!

July 2, 2015

The Returns

Leave a reply

Matt Cain, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Moore all returned from lengthy disabled list stays Thursday afternoon. How did they do?

In terms of three true outcomes, Fernandez pitched the best game striking out six while not walking a batter in six innings. He did allow a solo home run. In his final line, Fernandez allowed three runs and got the win. He also homered, but more on that later.

Matt Moore pitched the second best game. He only lasted 4 2/3 innings, walking two and striking out four. Nothing great, nothing bad, and he did not allow a long ball. Fifty three of his 81 pitches went for strikes. The Rays lost in extra innings to Cleveland 5-4.

Matt Cain posted the worst three true outcomes. He walked four in five innings and struck out just two, allowing two home runs. To make matters worse, one of those was by the aforementioned Jose Fernandez, who hasn’t played major league ball for a year! Cain’s strength at his peak was being able to induce fly balls without giving up many home runs. That didn’t happen on Thursday.

July 2, 2015

Games of the Day (Return of the Jedi version)

Leave a reply

Thursday begins with two pitchers making their 2015 debuts after spending the season on the disabled list. Matt Cain leads the Giants against the Marlins and Jose Fernandez. Cain recovered from a forearm strain striking out 19 in 19 1/3 minor league innings as he worked his way back. Fernandez, one of the best young pitchers in the game, comes off Tommy John surgery. He struck out 33 in 24 2/3 minor league innings.

Then, Corey Kluber and the Indians try to no-hit the Rays again, with Matt Moore on the mound for Tampa Bay. Moore also is coming back from Tommy John surgery. He struck out 24 in 21 1/3 minor league innings. Kluber is just 1-5 on the road with a 4.00 ERA. He allowed 6 of his nine home runs away.

Enjoy!

April 9, 2014 October 4, 2013

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

Gerrit Cole takes on Lance Lynn as the Pirates try to earn a split with the Cardinals. Cole turned in an excellent rookie year, striking out 100 and walking just 28 in 117 1/3 innings. Only 22 of his 109 hits allowed went for extra bases. Lynn followed up his first full season of 2012 with very similar, and slightly better three-true outcomes. Despite that, his ERA was up a bit. He had a rough time with the Pirates, posting a 5.60 ERA in five starts.

Matt Moore opens the ALDS as the Rays visit the Reds Sox and Jon Lester. According to my probabilistic model of Game Scores, Moore was the second luckiest pitcher in the majors (min. 20 starts) in terms of wins over expectation. He went 17-4, when his game scores predicted he would go 12-8. (Jorge de la Rosa was the luckiest, going 16-6 with an 11-11 projection.) Moore is a road warrior, with a 10-1 record away from Tampa Bay thanks to 2.74 ERA. Lester is a home body, with a 7-1 record at Fenway and a 3.09 ERA, compared to 4.21 on the road. Moore had the better results in competition against the opponent, holding Boston to three runs in 15 innings.

The Dodgers send Zack Greinke to the mound to try to bury the Braves with a sweep on the road. Mike Minor stands in opposition. Greinke posted his best season ERA since his 2009 Cy Young campaign. His strikeout rate is down, but his BA allowed remained low at .234, thanks to a .276 BABIP. Minor cracked 200 innings for the first time in his career. He does allowed home runs in Atlanta, with 14 of the 22 he allowed leaving the park at home.

Finally, Max Scherzer faced Bartolo Colon as the Tigers and Athletics matchup for the second season in a row in the ALDS. The 21-3 Scherzer was predicted to go 18-7 by the Game Score model, so his record was very legitimate. He kept his strikeout rate impressive this season while lowering his walk and home run rates compared to 2012. Colon has been a magician on the mound, putting 50.6% of his pitches in the strike zone, second in the majors to Cliff Lee.

Enjoy!

September 29, 2013

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Matt Moore tries to send the Rays into the wild card playoffs as he faces Todd Redmond and the Blue Jays. Moore is one of the few Rays with great success on the road, going 9-1 with a 2.59 ERA. Redmond followed his cup of coffee with Cincinnati last season with a strong half season performance, striking out 75 in 76 1/3 innings so far and walking just 22. He does need to learn to keep the ball in the park, however.

The Phillies try to keep the number one seed in the NL away from the Braves Zach Miner takes on Julio Teheran. Minor has a surprisingly low 3.08 ERA, as he walked 15 in 26 1/3 innings with three homers allowed. Teheran pitched well in the second half, 6-3 with a 2.66 ERA. He struck out 73 in 67 2/3 innings in that time. The Braves need to win and the Cardinals need to lose for the teams to tie for best record, Atlanta winning the tie-breaker.

Cleveland sends Ubaldo Jimenez against the Twins and Scott Diamond as the Indians try to cement home field in the AL Wild Card game. Jimenez returned to ace status over his last nine starts, posting a 1.81 ERA, 10.7 K per 9 IP, 2.6 walks per 9 IP, and just one home run allowed in 59 2/3 innings. His turnaround, and Cleveland’s overall success, should earn Terry Francona manager of the year honors. Diamond simply pitched poorly in two aspects; he strikes out few, so balls in play against him turn into hits, and many of those hits were home runs.

Jake Westbrook gets the call to push the Cardinals into the number one seed in the NL as he hosts the Cubs and Jeff Samardzija. Jeff started out the season well, but since June 1st owns a 5.13 ERA. His strikeout rate is great, but poor defense behind him leads to a high number of hits allowed. Don’t expect to see Westbrook much in the post season, as he walked more batters than he struck out this season.

Finally, the Angels and Rangers pit Jason Vargas against Yu Darvish in a nearly must-win game for Texas. Winning means the Rangers live to play another day. Losing means they need the Rays to lose as well. Vargas pitched well against Texas in 2013, earning three no-decisions with a 2.89 ERA. Darvish pitched great in terms of strikeouts, but his walks and home runs were a bit high. He has the appearance of being not clutch, but the opposition hit just .140 against him with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy! Remember, a Cleveland loss coupled with wins by both Tampa Bay and Texas results in a three-way tie for the AL Wild Card and two extra games!

September 24, 2013 September 24, 2013

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Indians host the White Sox as Hector Santiago faces Ubaldo Jimenez. One of the big reasons Terry Francona will get votes for manager of the year has to do with the resurgence of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir. They worked on Ubaldo in spring training, and stuck with him through a tough first half. Since the July 9th, his ERA stands at 2.00 due to much better walk and home run numbers. He did it all without sacrificing strikeouts. Whatever tweaks the Indians made took awhile to sink in, but once they did, Ubaldo was able to return to his 2010 form.

The Rays can eliminate the Yankees from over-taking Tampa’s Wild Card slot with a win tonight. Matt Moore takes on Hiroki Kuroda. Moore pitched well against New York this year, with a 3.55 ERA and no losses. He walked just eight batters in 25 1/3 innings. Kuroda’s ERA is over five since the start of August.

The Rangers send Yu Darvish against the Astros. His record against the cross-state rivals sums up the frustration with Darvish’s season. He allowed just 11 hits in 29 2/3 innings on 43 strikeouts, but he walked eight and gave up four home runs, leading to a 2.73 ERA. He even took a loss, one of only two times the Astros beat the Rangers this season.

Finally, the Royals try to stay alive once again as Bruce Chen battles the Mariners and James Paxton. Chen walked just 17 batters in 75 2/3 innings as a starter. In three starts, Paxton faced just nine batters with runners in scoring position, issued three walks, and allowed just one RBI.

Enjoy!

September 19, 2013

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Ian Kennedy tries to complete Padres sweep of the Pirates as he takes on Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh. A loss by the Pirates puts them into a wild card tie with the Reds. Despite allowing seven homers in 46 2/3 innings with San Diego, Kennedy improved his ERA to 3.86 with the team. He was over five with Arizona. In his rookie year, Cole walked just 24 batters in 105 1/3 innings.

James Paxton tries to continue his impressive start as the Mariners mourn the loss of their owner and battle the Tigers. Doug Fister stands in opposition. Paxton allowed just six hits in his first 12 major league innings. Fister has allowed just four of his eight home runs at home this season.

The Dodgers get another chance to clinch the division as they send Ricky Nolasco against Arizona and Wade Miley. Ricky proved to be a great acquisition for Los Angeles, going 8-2 with a 2.63 ERA since joining the team. Miley’s walks and home runs are up quite a bit this season, helping raise his ERA from 3.33 to 3.70.

Finally, Yu Darvish and Matt Moore battle as Texas and Tampa Bay finish their head to head battle for the AL Wild Card. The teams split the six games they played so far, so the winner of tonight’s contest gets home field in the WC game should the teams wind up in a tie. Darvish pitched in some hard luck this season, as his 12-9 record does not reflect his 2.79 ERA. In 14 2/3 innings since returning from injury, Moore held opponents to two runs, one earned. That is despite walking ten batters and allowing ten hits. Batters are 0 for 9 against him with runners in scoring position during that time.

Enjoy!

September 8, 2013

Games of the Day

1 Reply

The Yankees try to salvage the last game of their series against the Red Sox as Jon Lester faces Hiroki Kuroda. In his career, Lester pitched well against the Yankees in New York, with a 3.63 ERA and good strikeout and walk numbers. Considering the strength of the competition over that time frame, those are excellent numbers. Kuroda hit a wall that started in Boston on 8/17. His high ERA is due more to his six home runs allowed in 23 innings, as his walks and strikeouts remain good.

In a game that’s marginally important, Stephen Strasburg takes on Jacob Turner in Miami as the Nationals try to stay alive in the NL playoff picture. Strasburg’s road woes this season come from allowing about twice as many home runs and walks as he does at home, leading to a 4.56 ERA away from Washington. All three of Turner’s wins came at home this season, where he has not allowed a home run in 53 innings.

The Pirates try to leave St. Louis with a win as Charlie Morton battles Michael Wacha. Opponents are putting the ball into play on the ground 65% of the time against Morton, the highest percentage of Charlie’s career. It’s a big reason his ERA is well below his FIP. Wacha blows batters away with 40 K in just 39 1/3 innings during his rookie year. The winner of this game owns first place in the NL Central.

The Rays are desperate for a win as Matt Moore takes on Erasmo Ramirez and the Mariners. Tampa Bay lost three in a row and are 2-5 in September. Moore made a mixed return from the disabled list his last time out, walking four and striking out six in 5 1/3 innings. Ramirez is 5-1 despite a 5.07 ERA. He seems to be finding his groove, however, with a 2.81 ERA in his last four starts.

Finally, the Sunday night game features the Dodgers at the Reds, as Cincinnati continues their push to overtake both the Cardinals and the Pirates. Clayton Kershaw faces Homer Bailey. Only three of Kershaw’s nine home runs came on the road this season, but despite that his ERA is slightly higher away from Los Angeles. Bailey had a bit of a rough stretch after his no-hitter, but in his last four starts has been lights out.

Enjoy!

July 22, 2013

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rays travel to Boston on a roll, 14-2 in the month of July to sit just 1 1/2 games behind the Red Sox. Matt Moore starts game one of the four game series against Brandon Workman. Moore is tied with Bartolo Colon and Max Scherzer for most wins the American League and with Adam Wainwright for most wins in the majors. Moore is a high strikeout, low home run pitcher, but he walks a ton of batters. That should hurt against a selective team like Boston. The Red Sox batter drew the most walks in the AL this season. Workman makes his second start and third appearance in the majors. He’s walked one and struck out nine in 8 1/3 innings, but allowed two home runs.

An hour later, Max Scherzer tries for his 14th win, facing the tough Chris Sale as Detroit visits Chicago. Scherzer pitched his best on the road this season, with a 5-0 record and 2.20 ERA. While his three-true outcomes are all slightly better, he’s allowed 16 fewer hits away from Comerica Park. Sale counters with a better ERA at home, with a much lower WHIP than on the road.

Enjoy!

July 6, 2013

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Two of the Fox games offer great pitching matchups tonight. Stephen Fife takes on Madison Bumgarner in the classic Dodgers Giants rivalry. Fife has now made 12 major league starts, posting a 2.78 ERA. That’s well below his FIP and xFIP, both around 3.95. His low ERA seems to be related to a low hit rate, that doesn’t seem justified by his strikeout rate, his line drive rate, or his ground ball rate. He appears to be a pitcher likely to regress to his FIP. Bumgarner is impressively consistent. Since joining the Giants for good in 2010, he posted ERAs between 3.00 and 3.37, coming in at 3.08 so far this season.

The White Sox and Rays offer Chris Sale against Matt Moore. Sale once against shows impressive control for a young fireballer, striking out 114 and walking just 24 in 106 1/3 innings. The league is hitting just .202 against him with a .258 OBP. Moore already matched his win total from last season with 11. He pitched six strong innings in his earlier start against the Sox, walking one and striking out nine.

Enjoy!

June 20, 2013

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Matt Moore tries to get his groove back as the Rays open a four game series in New York against the Yankees. Andy Pettitte takes the hill for the Bronx Bombers. During his last three starts, Moore lost both his control and his ability (or luck) to prevent hits. His 13.86 ERA in that time is a result of 26 hits and 11 walks in 12 1/3 innings. Pettitte pitches poorly at Yankee Stadium this season, lasting a bit over five innings a start. His five K/BB on the road is just 1.3 at home.

Roy Oswalt returns to the majors as the Rockies face Jordan Zimmermann and the Nationals. Last season with Texas, Oswalt posted excellent K and BB numbers, but couldn’t keep the ball in the park. Zimmermann only allowed one of his eight home runs at home this season. With an opposition OBP of .247, only one of those eight HR came with men on base.

Finally, first place teams battle in Detroit as the Red Sox send John Lackey against Jose Alvarez. Lackey lacks skills on the road this season, with seven of his nine home runs coming on the road and 20 of his 28 runs allowed. Alvarez made a great start in his MLB debut, walking one and striking out seven in six innings of work.

Enjoy!