Tag Archives: Alex Faedo

February 22, 2025

Changes, Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

In addition, Tampa Bay also signed the injured Ha-Seong Kim as a free agent. He is recovering from labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder.

The Rays cautiously have been projecting late May for Kim to resume playing shortstop. It could be a little sooner for second base or DH if the only remaining issue is building strength for the longer throw from shortstop.

Kim told Korean media after his Feb. 3 signing he was targeting late April. Friday, he said that remains his goal, “based on how I feel and how the recovery speed is looking like. So, I’m trying to be optimistic.”

Kim said “everything feels good” so far and he is on schedule with his throwing, which in the early stages is light tossing from short distances. He said he is doing “better than expected” with hitting.

MSN.com

Kim’s strength is his ability to get on base, which projects this season to around .330. Rays shortstops hit .221/.294/.310 in 2024 as Tampa struggled to replace the legally troubled Wander Franco.

Jansen comes off the worst season of his career both offensively and defensively, which is why Tampa Bay was able to sign him for a relatively low price. The bad year could be a fluke, but catchers wear down quickly, and Jansen will play 2025 as a 30 year old. If the Rays get solid defense behind the plate and some of Jansen’s power returns, I think the team will be happy with the move.

Jimenez plays 2025 as a twenty eight year old, still in his prime. Injuries limited his time on the field in his career, but he did manage to produce two good power seasons at ages 23 and 25. The Rays seem to get power out of otherwise average players (think Jose Siri), so maybe they can work their magic on Jimenez. It’s a low risk, high reward move.

Faedo goes into his fourth season in the majors having raised his K rate each of the previous two years. Both rises followed him throwing fewer fastballs. He still does not strike out a lot of batters and his walks and home runs allowed remain high. He will most likely pitch in low leverage situations.

The Rays acquired Vasil in the rule five draft. As a starter, he pitched poorly once he reached AAA, with high walk and home run rates. The Rays look to use him as a long reliever, and maybe less pitching will lead to fewer mistakes.

Kim represents the big move for the Rays, but they will need to wait awhile for him to start producing. There is upside with the others, but I would not have a high confidence that the upside will prevail.

May 25, 2023

Faedo Way, And Radiate

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Alex Faedo of the Tigers kept the White Sox in check, allowing two runs in six innings for his first win of the season in a 7-2 Detroit victory. He struck out ten and did not issue a walk.

Last season Faedo walked 25 batters in 53 2/3 innings. This season, he issued just one walk in 21 2/3 innings. While that walk rate won’t hold up, Fadeo did produce a low walk rate in the minors.

Now he just needs to get his home runs allowed under control. He gave up one today, and now has allowed 13 dingers in 75 1/3 MLB innings.

May 13, 2023

Games of the Day

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The Mariners send rookie Bryce Miller against the Tigers and Alex Faedo in an early afternoon start. Miller blew away batters in his first two starts covering twelve innings. He struck out 15 and walked just one, limiting opponents to four hits. Faedo makes his second start of 2023. In his first, batters put the ball in play as he struck out one and walked none in 4 2/3 innings. Two of the three hits against him left the park, however.

Bryce Elder of the Braves faces Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays in a mid afternoon contest. Elder now owns 95 1/3 MLB innings. His ERA, 2.55 is better than his 5-4 record. His ERA, however, is better than what you would expect from his three-true outcomes (FIP of 3.66), so in this case, everything balances. Berrios turned out to be a somewhat disappointing acquisition for Toronto. He does hold a 20-14 record in 51 starts, but his ERA stands at 4.78. He’s been easier to hit since joining the Blue Jays.

The west coast games are early evening, and the Giants send Anthony DeSclafani against the Diamondbacks and Zac Gallen. DeSclafani made a nice bounce back from an injury shortened 2022, now 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA. He walked just four batters in 45 innings. Gallen enters with a 2.36 ERA, and a very impressive set of three-true outcomes. He struck out 64 batters in 49 2/3 innings, allowing just six walks and two home runs. This could be a very quick game.

Enjoy!

June 20, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Machado injured his ankle on Sunday, but is not the illjured list yet. Assuming he won’t play this list goes to eleven.

With nine games today, the Red Sox dominate the list. Bogaerts, Martinez, and Devers are 2-3-4 in the AL batting race respectively. Rookie pitcher Faedo allows the ball to be put in play, and the league is batting .280 against him. Note that given Faedo has not faced that many batters in his career, his numbers are highly regressed toward the hit average mean. The above may be an underestimate of the probabilities of a hit against him.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.315, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alex Faedo.
  • 0.314, 0.723 — Rafael Devers batting against Alex Faedo.
  • 0.309, 0.716 — J.D. Martinez batting against Alex Faedo.
  • 0.293, 0.713 — Luis Robert batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.298, 0.703 — Jeff McNeil batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.284, 0.700 — Manny Machado batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.285, 0.695 — Starling Marte batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.249, 0.685 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Corbin Burnes.
  • 0.266, 0.682 — Harold Castro batting against Josh Winckowski.
  • 0.252, 0.674 — Garrett Cooper batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.268, 0.674 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Winckowski.

The two systems agree on the top three. Note that the Marlins at the Mets kicks off at 1 PM EDT, so if you are picking from that game, get your choice in early.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!