Tag Archives: Chris Rusin

June 3, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Jon Jay batting against Chris Rusin
0.326 — Josh Harrison batting against Jered Weaver
0.319 — Starling Marte batting against Jered Weaver
0.314 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Christopher Rusin
0.308 — Wil Myers batting against Christopher Rusin
0.301 — Victor Martinez batting against Carlos Rodon
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brandon Finnegan
0.300 — Matt Kemp batting against Christopher Rusin
0.300 — Alexei Ramirez batting against Christopher Rusin
0.298 — Xander Bogaerts batting against R.A. Dickey

Rusin allowed a .304 BA so far this year, but .257 on the road. On the other hand, Petco Park turned into Coors south the last couple of games.

The NN made these picks:

0.297, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.326, 0.740 — Josh Harrison batting against Jered Weaver.
0.294, 0.737 — Danny Valencia batting against Doug Fister.
0.298, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.289, 0.728 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.288, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.261, 0.728 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.314, 0.728 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.300, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.262, 0.725 — Billy Burns batting against Doug Fister.

Running this every day, it’s clear the NN has favorite batters like Jose Altuve, Josh Harrison, and Buster Posey. Good luck!

September 27, 2015

Games of the Day

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Texas can reduce their magic number for the AL West title to three with a win over the Astros Sunday afternoon. Martin Perez faces Dallas Keuchel. Perez has yet to win in seven starts on the road this season, 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA. Keuchel has been hammered by home runs in September, giving up six in 26 1/3 innings after allowing 10 the first five months of the season.

San Francisco needs a win to stay alive in the NL West as Chris Heston faces the Athletics and Sean Nolin. Heston posted a good rookie year, winning more than he lost, and striking out more than twice as many as he walked. Nolin’s three-true outcomes have been terrible so far, with 12 K, 10 BB, and three home runs in 21 2/3 innings.

A Giants loss means the Dodgers can clinch the NL West with a win, and Alex Wood will try to clinch at least a tie as he faces the Rockies and Chris Rusin. Wood is 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA since joining the Dodgers. He’s pitching well in September with a 3.13 ERA. Rusin’s ERA is high both at home and on the road, but with run support at home he’s 4-3, versus 1-6 away.

Finally, the Pirates go for a sweep of the Cubs and their ninth straight win as A.J. Burnett takes on leading Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta. Burnett owns a 1.47 ERA against the Cubs in three starts this season, with just a 1-0 record to show for his efforts. Arrieta has not lost in his last 11 starts, blowing away all MLB competition with an 0.66 ERA in that time. He allowed just one home run in his last 81 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

July 25, 2015

Games of the Day

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Cole Hamels faces Jake Arrieta as the Phillies take on the Cubs. Hamels is a trade target, so if he leaves the game early, that’s a good indication his career with the Phillies came to an end. He’s pitching better than his ERA, with a high strikeout and low walk rate. Arrieta’s success of the last two seasons came from limiting home runs. Through the end of the 2013 season, he allowed 1.21 home runs per nine innings. Since then, he allowed 0.56 home runs per nine innings.

The battle of San Francisco Bay continues with Oakland’s Chris Bassitt trying to hound the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Bassitt owns a good ERA despite a high walk rate. He’s a Matt Cain type pitcher; he allows a high number of fly balls without many of them leaving the park. Bumgarner’s ERA is about 1.5 runs lower at home this season, mostly due to his higher strikeout rate in San Francisco.

The Pirates are making life tough for the Nationals, winning the first two games of their weekend series. Washington is in a good position to win the NL East, but if they don’t their is not guarantee of a wild card slot for them. They are now 1/2 a game behind San Francisco for the second wild card slot. Gio Gonzalez takes on A.J. Burnett today. Gio is having a good July, with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. Burnett, in what is likely his final year, is having the best season of his career. He cut down on his home runs allowed, and his ERA dropped.

Someone with a Zack like name will pitch for the Dodgers tonight against Matt Harvey and the Mets. Zack Greinke might make it back from the birth of his child to try to extend his scoreless inning streak. Right now, Zach Lee is schedule to make his major league debut. The 23-year-old has a 2.36 ERA at AAA this season. Harvey is having a tough July, walking 13 batters in 19 innings. That led to a 4.26 ERA.

Johnny Cueto might be making his last start for the Reds as he faces the Rockies and Chris Rusin. Cueto could use some support, as he is just 6-6 in 18 starts despite a 2.79 ERA. Rusin owns a 3.00 ERA in Colorado, where he allowed just two of his eight home runs.

Finally, Yovani Gallardo leads the Rangers against the Angels and Hector Santiago. Gallardo is slipping in July, allowed 15 walks in 21 1/3 innings while striking out just 10. Santiago is just the opposite, having walked two and struck out 20 in 19 July innings.

Enjoy!

June 6, 2015

Games of the Day

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Ubaldo Jimenez takes on his former team as the Orioles continue their series in Cleveland against Danny Salazar. Jimenez has yet to win on the road this season, thanks to a 4.76 ERA and four home runs allowed in 22 2/3 innings. Salazar blows away batters with 71 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings.

The 1993 expansion teams play in Colorado with Miami sending David Phelps against the Rockies and Chris Rusin. Phelps made six of his nine starts on the road this season, where he owns a 2.50 ERA. Opponents are hitting .217 against him on the road, versus .313 at home, but Colorado is not the typical road park. Rusin allowed just one run in his 11 2/3 innings, but five walks and seven strikeouts in that span may mean that won’t last.

Garrett Richards and Adam Warren square off in New York as the Angels play the Yankees. Richards, a right-hander, holds left-handed batters to a .179/.263/.274 slash line this season. That should work well against the Yankees switch hitters. Warren shows good control but allowed seven homers in 57 2/3 innings. Only one of those came at home, however.

Finally, Jaime Garcia battles Clayton Kershaw as the Cardinals try to win their fourth straight game against the Dodgers. Garcia has not managed more than nine games in his previous two seasons, and this will be his fourth start of the year. He’s only walked five in 20 innings so far. Kershaw posted two good starts in a row, walking one and striking out 17 in his last 14 innings.

Enjoy!

September 14, 2012

Punchless Pirates

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How low can the Pirates go? In four innings against Chris Rusin, they’ve struck out five times without a hit, and their only base runner came when Rusin hit Clint Barmes. The Cubs lead 1-0.

Update: Anthony Rizzo doubles with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the fourth, and the Cubs lead 3-0.

Update: Rizzo chases James McDonald from the game, and Alfonso Soriano follows with a single to make it 4-0 Cubs.

Update: The Pirates comeback with a run in the fifth and two in the sixth to get the Cubs lead to 4-3.

September 14, 2012

Games of the Day

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The Pirates desperately need a win as they send James McDonald against the Cubs and Chris Rusin. With McDonald coming into the game with a 3.93 ERA to Rusin’s 5.73, there’s no excuse for the Pirates losing.

Elite lefties face off in New York as David Price leads the Tampa Bay Rays against CC Sabathia. Price is 6-3 with a 3.84 career ERA against New York in 16 starts, while CC is just 3-7 with a 3.57 ERA against the Rays since joining the Yankees.

The Nationals take on the Braves as Ross Detwiler goes against the Kris Medlen. Kris is the Braves version of Stephen Strasburg, and he may very well face the Nationals in the first round of the playoffs. Washington gets a chance to show they can beat him before that happens.

The Orioles send Joe Saunders against Tommy Milone in Oakland. Baltimore is simultaneously fighting for a division championship and home field in a wild card game. A win here helps their cause in both.

Finally, Joe Kelly and Chris Capuano square off as the Cardinals try to make it two in a row against the Dodgers.

Enjoy!

September 9, 2012

Games of the Day

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The Yankees go for a split with the Orioles as Freddy Garcia faces Zach Britton Sunday afternoon. It’s been a homer happy series, as the Orioles hit 12 home runs in the first three games, and the Yankees hit four. Garcia allowed 16 homers in 99 innings this year, so the O’s may add a few more to their total. Britton has not allowed a home run in his four-start hot streak, helping him to an 0.94 ERA in that stretch. The winner takes sole possession of the AL East lead.

It’s not really a game of the day, but Toronto goes for a sweep of the Red Sox, which would leave Boston buried in last place in the AL East. I wonder if the Red Sox are playing for a draft pick at this point.

Two rookies face off in Pittsburgh as Chris Rusin of the Cubs faces Jeff Locke. Rusin makes his third start, his first two being mirror images. He allowed one run in five innings against Milwaukee, then five runs in one inning against the Nationals. Locke walked one and struck out seven in 9 1/3 innings this season, a huge improvement over his 10 BB, 5 K outings in 2011. The Pirates really need a win to get back on track.

Finally, the Sunday night game features Clayton Kershaw against Barry Zito as the Dodgers and Giants play the rubber game of their series. Kershaw is suffering a frustrating season against the Giants. He’s 1-3, but with a 1.74 ERA in four starts. He hasn’t even allowed an unearned run. He walked four and struck out 32 in 31 innings. In his three losses, the Dodgers scored 1, 0, and 1 run. His only win was a 4-0 shutout. Zito is in a similar boat, 1-2 against the Dodgers in three starts with a 3.44 ERA. Barry has been wild, with eight walks and just 11 K in 18 1/3 innings. The Dodgers should win this game, and they need to do so to stay close in the NL West race. They don’t want to make up 5 1/2 games with just 21 left to play.

Enjoy!