It was an interesting night for the three true outcomes Friday. Pitchers and batters seemed to be trading walks for home runs, much like they did on Wednesday:
| Game Date |
K per 9 IP |
BB per 9 IP |
HR per 200 IP |
| 3/31/2013 |
10.59 |
3.18 |
11.8 |
| 4/01/2013 |
9.18 |
3.07 |
14.6 |
| 4/02/2013 |
7.71 |
2.93 |
23.8 |
| 4/03/2013 |
7.68 |
2.94 |
25.8 |
| 4/04/2013 |
6.89 |
3.00 |
24.0 |
| 4/05/2013 |
7.49 |
2.87 |
24.3 |
Note that if taken as a whole, the numbers favor the pitchers, as a long term trend continues of the three true outcomes moving mostly in favor of pitching:
| Season |
K per 9 IP |
BB per 9 IP |
HR per 200 IP |
| 2013 |
7.85 |
2.96 |
22.4 |
| 2012 |
7.56 |
3.05 |
22.8 |
| 2011 |
7.13 |
3.11 |
20.9 |
| 2010 |
7.13 |
3.28 |
21.3 |
The game is getting to the point where home runs become the main way of scoring. Starters have thrown 19 short shutouts so far this season (pitched at least six innings, did not get charged with a run). That blows away the record for the first five days of the season, 15 in 1972 (there were 13 last year). If teams don’t hit home runs, they aren’t putting enough batters on base to generate runs. High strikeout rates reduce the batting average component of OBP, and low walk rates do the rest.

Andre Ethier’s second inning home run was all the Dodgers needed Friday night. The Dodgers and Pirates combined for two walks and 14 strikeouts despite Jonathan Sanchez taking the mound. Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
So far 39.4% of runs have been driven in by homers. The high point during the offensive explosion era came in 2004, when 37% of runs scored on homers, and last season when 37% also scored (36.999 in 2004 vs. 36.994 in 2012).
These numbers need some time to stabilize. A few fifth starter games will likely bring 2013 closer to 2012. The trend is there, however. With more strikeouts and fewer walks, batters are compensating by swinging for the fences. This, of course, leads to more strikeouts as batters swing harder, and fewer walks as batters are less willing to take a close pitch. The pendulum of baseball swings back to the pitchers.