Tag Archives: Yovani Gallardo

September 18, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Red Sox can clinch the AL East with a win in a rare Tuesday afternoon game in the Bronx against the Yankees. Trade pickups Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ square off. Eovaldi owns a 4.17 ERA since joining the Red Sox. He does not give up many walks nor home runs. He does give up good number of the hits, and a high average with runners in scoring position. Happ owns a 2.70 ERA with the Yankees, despite allowing eight home runs in 46 2/3 innings. Six of those eight home runs were solo shots.

Three other games have important Cy Young Award considerations. The White Sox send their ace, Carlos Rodon against Indians Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber. Kluber tries to to break the 18 win barrier after finish with that total in three earlier seasons. The wins are Kluber’s strong suit in his quest for the Cy. His ERA is good at 2.91, and his strikeouts are good but not outstanding for this season. He’s 10-3 with a 2.05 ERA at home, so his 4.02 road ERA held him back.

The Rays send Blake Snell against the Rangers and Yovani Gallardo. Snell goes for his twentieth win, and with a 2.03 ERA he may wind up leading the league in that category if Chris Sale doesn’t pitch much. Leading in both wins and ERA should get Snell a lot of votes. Snell is nearly even with Justin Verlander in Tom Tango Cy Young points.

Finally, Kyle Freeland takes on Clayton Kershaw as the Rockies and Dodgers continue their quests for the NL West title. Most pundits I’ve heard seem to debate Max Scherzer versus Jacob deGrom versus Aaron Nola for the Cy Young Award, but Freeland owns a 2.96 ERA pitching for the Rockies. Many years ago I suggested that any Rockies pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 should automatically earn the Cy. Freeland has a 2.36 ERA in Denver, 3.51 on the road. He doesn’t have eye popping K, BB, or HR numbers, but pitching like he does in his home park should count for a lot.

Enjoy!

July 10, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.319 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.317 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.310 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.305 — Justin Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — Adrian Beltre batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.301 — Nick Markakis batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.301 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.298 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.297 — Jose Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.297 — Chris Taylor batting against Eric Lauer.
0.296 — Andrew Toles batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sal Romano.
0.295 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.291 — Adam C Eaton batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.291 — Ozzie Albies batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.290 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Dylan Covey.
0.289 — Matthew Adams batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.288 — Steve Pearce batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.287 — Trea Turner batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.287 — Yadier Molina batting against Dylan Covey.
0.287 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.285 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Matt Kemp makes the All-Star team and the top of the Log5 list in the same week! Lauer allowed a .367 BABIP this year. Batted balls seem to find holes against him.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.741 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.344, 0.740 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.277, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.317, 0.734 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.287, 0.733 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.310, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.301, 0.718 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.305, 0.717 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.261, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.
0.297, 0.715 — Jose Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.304, 0.714 — Adrian Beltre batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.289, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.298, 0.712 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295, 0.712 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.268, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.301, 0.710 — Nick Markakis batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282, 0.709 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.290, 0.705 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Dylan Covey.
0.261, 0.705 — Scooter Gennett batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.285, 0.704 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.272, 0.703 — Avisail Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.258, 0.703 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sean Manaea.
0.291, 0.703 — Ozzie Albies batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295, 0.703 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sal Romano.
0.276, 0.702 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson.

Notice that batters against Lauer don’t appear as often on this list. The NN does a better job of filtering out pitchers with small sample sizes of data. J.D. Martinez and Kemp are tied for consensus first pick today. Martinez is 5 for 15 career against Gallardo with a double and two strikeouts.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

August 14, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Indians travel to Boston for a possible preview of the ALDS. Trevor Bauer faces Doug Fister. Bauer’s high ERA is especially poor on the road, 6.69. He walked 23 batters in 40 1/3 road innings, 21 walks in 80 home innings. Fister in his prime was a great control artist, but this season walked 19 batters in 39 1/3 innings.

The Braves take on the Rockies in Colorado, but the story is the return of Chad Bettis from testicular cancer. He’ll face Julio Teheran. Bettis walked seven, struck out 17, and allowed three home runs in 23 1/3 minor league rehabilitation innings. Teheran is posting the highest season ERA of his career since he became a full time starter. Both his walk and home run rates are way up.

A possible World Series preview pits the Astros against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Colin McHugh battles Zack Greinke. McHugh mistakes have come with runners on base, as opponents are slugging .605 in that situation, with six of the 11 hits against him going for extra bases. Greinke walked just 31 batters in 149 innings. He is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA against AL teams in three starts this year.

Finally, the Orioles and Mariners fight for a wild card as Kevin Gausman faces Yovani Gallardo. Both have ERAs over 5.00. Gallardo allowed six home runs in 22 innings since the All-Star break, and Gausman allowed seven HR in 36 innings in the same time period. Expect a slugfest in this game.

Enjoy!

January 7, 2017

Which Will Bounce Back?

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The Mariners and Orioles pulled off a trade on Friday, with Yovani Gallardo heading to the Mariners and Seth Smith joining the Orioles. Both players consistently produced two fWAR seasons, both fell off to about 0.5 WAR in 2016. Gallardo’s decline from 2015 appears to be due to his walk and home run rates jumping well above his norms. Smith’s decline from 2015 appears to be almost totally defensive, his declining power also hurting a bit. In general, I think it’s easier to hide poor defense than bad control. The teams might have thought the same as the Orioles sent the Mariners $2 million in addition to Gallardo. Baltimore might help Smith get some of his power back, so I won’t be surprised if at the end of 2017 this looks like a great deal for the Orioles.

August 31, 2016

Games of the Day

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The day starts with a great pitching match-up as Chris Sale leads the White Sox against Justin Verlander and the Tigers. Sale’s strikeout rate dropped quite a bit from 2015, but it’s so good he still yields very few hits. Verlander raised his K rate back up, making him a dominating pitcher once again.

Just a few minutes later, the Rays and Red Sox kick off with Drew Smyly facing Steven Wright. Smyly gets hammered by home runs. Fourteen of the twenty seven he allowed came with men on base, despite a good OBP allowed. Seven of the ten home runs Wright allowed came in Boston, where his ERA stands at 4.30.

Game number three of the afternoon see King Felix Hernandez taking on Texas as Martin Perez hurls for the Rangers. Hernandez has not lost a game since returning from the disabled list, and the Mariners need this win as they fade in a crowded wild card race. Perez’s high walk rate and low strikeout rate leads to a .340 OBP allowed, but his ability to limit opponents power somewhat limits the damage against him.

The evening festivities begin with Toronto and Baltimore playing the rubber game of their series with Aaron Sanchez taking on Yovani Gallardo. Sanchez is supposed to be on an innings limit, but winning now often trumps the future. He is 7-1 on the road with a 2.70 ERA. Gallardo comes into the game with a 5.69 ERA, but 3.69 in Baltimore. He’s only thrown 39 innings at home, however.

The best NL match-up of the day pits Ryan Vogelsong of the Pirates against Jason Hammel of the Cubs. Vogelsong owns a 2.25 ERA in his seven starts, compared to 4.91 out of the bullpen. Hammel owns a 2.31 ERA against the Pirates in two starts this season.

Enjoy!

August 26, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Yankees open a three-game series against the Orioles in New York as the 5 1/2 week battle for the AL East/Wild Card starts in earnest. New York plays the three division leaders, Boston, Toronto, and Baltimore 23 times in that span, nine against the Orioles and seven each against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The Orioles play Boston and Toronto 13 times, with the Blue Jays and Red Sox meeting six times. In other words, each of the four teams control their destiny.

There is a number of scenarios in which the four teams tie, and this one is kind of plausible:

Boston 15-20
Toronto 15-20
Baltimore 16-19
New York 21-15

That would give each team 86 wins.

For Friday’s game, Yovani Gallardo takes on Luis Cessa. Gallardo owns a well deserved 5.08 ERA, as all three-true outcomes are poor, especially his walks. Cessa makes his second start and tenth appearance of his career. His BA allowing is low at .217, but nine of the 20 hits against him went for extra bases, including five home runs.

The Royals are still in the wild card fight, and travel to Boston, one of the teams standing in the way. Ian Kennedy takes on Steven Wright. Kennedy makes just the second appearance of his career at Fenway Park. He allowed six runs in six innings in his first with the Diamondbacks. He gave up 28 home runs in 148 1/3 innings this season, which might not bode well against the power hitting Red Sox. Wright last pitched on Aug. 7th, hurt running the bases. His ERA stands at 4.02 at home, 2.09 on the road, but he managed to go 7-1 in Fenway this season.

First place teams clash in Texas as Corey Kluber leads the Indians against the Rangers and Martin Perez. Kluber was knocked around in his only start against the Rangers this season, allowing two home runs and six runs in six innings. Perez is a home body, 7-1 in Texas with a 2.36 ERA, 1-8 on the road with a 6.23 ERA. It simply looks like the defense plays better behind him in Texas. Perez tends to pitch to contact, and needs his fielders.

The pitching match-up of the day takes place in Chicago where Felix Hernandez and the Mariners battle Chris Sale and the White Sox. Hernandez’s record stands at 4-0 since returning from the disabled list. He still is working on wildness issues that plagued him early in the season. It took Sale seven starts to win his 15th game. He pitched well enough in four of the first six to win, but did not get the support.

Finally, first place teams collide in Los Angeles as the Cubs take on the Dodgers. Mike Montgomery faces Bud Norris. Montgomery made his first start for Chicago last Saturday in Coors Field, and held the Rockies to one hit in 4 1/3 innings. It was a home run. Norris owns a 5.67 ERA since joining the Dodgers, not exactly replacing Clayton Kershaw.

Enjoy!

July 30, 2016

Games of the Day

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Toronto could move ahead of Baltimore in the AL East race, and they have the advantage in starting pitchers today as the Orioles send Yovani Gallardo against J.A. Happ. Gallardo comes into the game with a 5.37 ERA, mostly due to 33 walks and eight home runs allowed in 62 innings. He’s working on a 4.88 ERA in July. Happ’s 13 wins is a single season career high for him, beating his 12 wins in 2009. He walked just 37 batters in 124 innings this season. He is 8-1 in Toronto this season as well.

Detroit can move past Houston into the third slot in the AL Wild Card race with a win in Detroit today. Mike Fiers leads the Astros against Justin Verlander. Fiers pitched poorly on the road this season, posting a 6.75 ERA. He struck out just 21 batters in 40 innings while allowing seven home runs away from Houston. Verlander looks to finish a strong July. He is 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA in five starts. He struck out 37 in 33 2/3 innings, looking more like his younger self.

Enjoy!

April 11, 2016

Games of the Day

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Free agent additions take the mound as Yovani Gallardo leads the undefeated Orioles into Boston against David Price in the Red Sox home opener. Gallardo pitched a short but effective outing in his first game, allowing two hits and one run in five innings. Price walked two and struck out 10 in six innings to earn his first win of 2016.

The Braves look for their first win as they send Bud Norris against Max Scherzer in Washington. That Nationals hit Norris well, pinning a 5.01 ERA on him in eight games, five of them starts. Scherzer gave up two solo home runs to the Braves on opening day, the only runs he allowed in seven innings. Since the middle of July, 2015, Scherzer averaged 1.68 home runs per nine innings.

The Reds play the Cubs in Chicago’s home opener, with Brandon Finnegan taking on Jon Lester. Finnegan’s six innings with one walk and nine strikeouts in his 2016 debut is remarkable not for the Ks, but for the lack of walks. He’s been a bit wild at times in his career. Lester kept the bases clear in his first start, holding the Angles to a 2 for 19 with the bases empty.

Enjoy!

February 24, 2016

Gallardo Gets Two Plus

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The Orioles and Yovani Gallardo finally reached a deal. He gets two guaranteed years instead of three, and can earn nearly the full contract if he stays healthy gets the option for the third year.

It’s almost become a running joke around MLB that the Orioles will find something to give them pause and reconsider a deal, but it was no joke to Yovani Gallardo. Over the weekend, he agreed to a three-year, $35 million deal with the Orioles. However, by Tuesday, that deal was in question when the Orioles grew concerned about the wear and tear on his shoulder during their exam.

Gallardo now has a great incentive to stay healthy for his third year.

February 20, 2016

Gallardo an O

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The Orioles and Yovani Gallardo appear to have reached a three-year deal:

After weeks of negotiating, a three-year deal was finally struck Saturday between pitcher Yovani Gallardo and the Orioles, according to MLB’s Jon Heyman.

The Orioles had been “making progress” toward a deal with Gallardo for a couple of weeks. But the two sides finally reached an agreement, pending a physical, Saturday evening.

Three years, $35 million is pretty cheap for Gallardo. I would have expected him to be worth more like $14 million a year. I guess the Orioles (and the rest of the league) valued the lost draft choice very highly. On the other hand, his strike out rate fell from about nine batters per nine to six batters per nine over the last three years, so that might have forced his value down as well.

The Orioles should have a rotation good enough for their offense.

February 18, 2016

The Future is Now

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The Orioles are going all in as they are on the verge of signing both Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo:

In addition to a monetary investment, the O’s are also taking away future assets to their farm system. Both players were given qualifying offers by their previous clubs, so the Orioles will have to give up their first two picks in the 2016 amateur draft — the 14th and 29th picks.

I wonder if this is a similar situation to Detroit, where an old owner wants a championship before he dies. Peter Angelos is seasonal age 86, giving him a life expectancy of about five years. He’s at the point where he can’t wait for prospects to develop.

October 8, 2015

Playoffs Today

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The ALDS gets underway with the Rangers visiting the Blue Jays, the game kicking off a little after 3:30 PM EDT. Yovani Gallardo faces David Price. Gallardo lowered his ERA slightly compared to 2014 despite moving to the American League, a lower strikeout rate and a higher walk rate. He was devastating this season with runners in scoring position. Price was 9-4 with a 2.53 ERA for Detroit, then turned it up a notch with Toronto. He went 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA for the Blue Jays in just 11 starts. Price was particularly good against right-handed batters. The lefty allowed a .219/.267/.342 slash line to RHB, giving him a reverse platoon split.

The Astros send Collin McHugh against the Royals and Yordano Ventura as Houston plays their first post-season as an American League team. McHugh hit his stride after the All-Star break, going 10-2 with a 3.11 ERA. The big difference came from keeping the ball in the park. He allowed 14 home runs before the break, just five after. The first two-plus months of the season did not go well for Ventura, despite decent walk, and home run numbers. When he came back, his strikeouts took off, and he started winning games again.

Enjoy!

September 25, 2015

Games of the Day

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The Pirates take on the Cubs in a three-game weekend series, Pittsburgh holding a 3 1/2 game lead in the race for the first wild card slot. A tie goes to the Cubs since they have already won 10 of the 19 scheduled games between the teams. Gerrit Cole takes on Jon Lester. Cole goes his 18th win of the season, and if he gets it he’ll have a shot at winning 20 for the season. In 18 1/3 innings against the Cubs this season, Cole walked two and struck out 24. Lester is finishing strong, with a 2-1 record in four September starts with a 2.67 ERA. He struck out 26 batters in 27 innings.

Texas and Houston start the final battle for the top spot in the AL West as Yovani Gallardo faces Scott Kazmir. The Rangers lead Houston by 3 1/2 games, so the Astros four games down in the AFILC. Both teams need to think sweep, Houston to have a chance at the title, the Rangers to clinch at tie for the division. The Astros knocked around Gallardo this season, scoring 10 runs in 14 2/3 innings against him, thanks to 19 hits and three home runs. Kazmir is only 2-5 with the Astros despite a 3.31 ERA. He’s been hurt by 10 home runs allowed in 65 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

August 27, 2015

Games of the Day

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The Dodgers and Reds start the day with Zack Greinke taking on Anthony DeSclafani. Greinke held the Reds to one run in seven innings the first time he faced the team. DeSclafani owns a 5.85 ERA at home, where he allowed 10 of his 15 home runs.

The Blue Jays and Rangers finish their series with Marco Estrada facing Yovani Gallardo. Estrada has a very small platoon difference this season. Lefties are hitting .214/.277/.373 against the right-handed pitcher, while righties are hitting .208/.276/.363. Gallardo is riding the Rangers run support as he is 3-1 since the All-Star break despite a 5.25 ERA. The Rangers won two of three games in which he allowed five runs.

Dan Haren and Madison Bumgarner finish the afternoon as the Cubs play the Giants. Haren owns a 6.05 ERA since joining the Cubs, giving up seven home runs in 19 1/3 innings. Bumgarner goes for his 16th win and a perfect 5-0 August.

Finally, Tommy Milone leads the Twins against the Rays in an important game in the wild card race. Drew Smyly hurls for the Rays. Milone pitched well on the road this season with a 3.30 ERA, striking out 38 in 46 1/3 innings. Smyly allowed six home runs in 26 1/3 innings, but walked just 5 while striking out 27.

Enjoy!

August 16, 2015

Games of the Day

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This games of the day post comes to you live from the Humphrey Bogart terminal outside Minneapolis, MN. (At least, that’s who I think it was named after.)

The Yankees go for a sweep of the Blue Jays as Luis Severino takes on Drew Hutchison. Severino walked one and struck out nine in his first 11 major league innings. Hutchinson cut his home runs allowed this season, but his strikeouts fell as well and his ERA ballooned.

Jeff Locke and Matt Harvey square off as the Pirates finish their series against the Mets. Locke owns a 6.51 ERA on the road, although it’s tough to see what he is doing very differently than at home. His ERA stands at 3.16 in Pittsburgh. Harvery walked just 12 batters in 83 2/3 innings at Citi Field this season.

The Cubs try to extend their winning streak to 10 games as they send Dan Haren against Chris Sale and the White Sox. Haren allowed 12 hits, three of them homers, in 10 1/3 innings for the Cubs. Sale owns a 6.39 ERA since the All-Star break. He’s pitching well in terms of his three-true outcomes, but allowed a ton of hits.

Drew Smyly returns to the Rays rotation against Yovani Gallardo and the Rangers. Smyly struck out 21 in 16 2/3 innings before going on the disabled list in May. Gallardo completed the transition from power to finesse pitcher this year. He only struck out 88 batters in 138 innings, but allowed just 128 hits.

Finally, the Reds try to stop Zack Greinke as they send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound. DeSclafani is hurt by his home park, where allowed eight of his 11 home runs. Going on the road cuts his ERA in half. Greinke comes into the game with a 1.59 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, meaning his likely to reach the ERA qualification for the season today. He is tough against both left and right-handed hittters, with a .196/.267/.267 slash line against lefties, .187/.208/.268 against righties.

Enjoy

July 25, 2015

Games of the Day

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Cole Hamels faces Jake Arrieta as the Phillies take on the Cubs. Hamels is a trade target, so if he leaves the game early, that’s a good indication his career with the Phillies came to an end. He’s pitching better than his ERA, with a high strikeout and low walk rate. Arrieta’s success of the last two seasons came from limiting home runs. Through the end of the 2013 season, he allowed 1.21 home runs per nine innings. Since then, he allowed 0.56 home runs per nine innings.

The battle of San Francisco Bay continues with Oakland’s Chris Bassitt trying to hound the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Bassitt owns a good ERA despite a high walk rate. He’s a Matt Cain type pitcher; he allows a high number of fly balls without many of them leaving the park. Bumgarner’s ERA is about 1.5 runs lower at home this season, mostly due to his higher strikeout rate in San Francisco.

The Pirates are making life tough for the Nationals, winning the first two games of their weekend series. Washington is in a good position to win the NL East, but if they don’t their is not guarantee of a wild card slot for them. They are now 1/2 a game behind San Francisco for the second wild card slot. Gio Gonzalez takes on A.J. Burnett today. Gio is having a good July, with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. Burnett, in what is likely his final year, is having the best season of his career. He cut down on his home runs allowed, and his ERA dropped.

Someone with a Zack like name will pitch for the Dodgers tonight against Matt Harvey and the Mets. Zack Greinke might make it back from the birth of his child to try to extend his scoreless inning streak. Right now, Zach Lee is schedule to make his major league debut. The 23-year-old has a 2.36 ERA at AAA this season. Harvey is having a tough July, walking 13 batters in 19 innings. That led to a 4.26 ERA.

Johnny Cueto might be making his last start for the Reds as he faces the Rockies and Chris Rusin. Cueto could use some support, as he is just 6-6 in 18 starts despite a 2.79 ERA. Rusin owns a 3.00 ERA in Colorado, where he allowed just two of his eight home runs.

Finally, Yovani Gallardo leads the Rangers against the Angels and Hector Santiago. Gallardo is slipping in July, allowed 15 walks in 21 1/3 innings while striking out just 10. Santiago is just the opposite, having walked two and struck out 20 in 19 July innings.

Enjoy!

July 19, 2015

Games of the Day

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It’s hard to believe there will be multiple games of the day when Zack Greinke is facing Max Scherzer as the Dodgers and Nationals play the rubber game of their series. It turns out plenty of good match-ups are on the schedule for Sunday.

Despite his performance in the All-Star game, Zack Greinke’s consecutive scoreless innings streak remains intact. He allowed just 16 hits and three walks in 35 2/3 innings. Scherzer has not walked a batter in July, but his ERA for the month is 3.74 thanks to three home runs allowed.

Yovani Gallardo and Dallas Keuchel square off in the battle of Texas in Houston. Gallardo is 7-8 despite a 2.62 ERA. He needs to be great to win. In June, he managed a 2-0 record in five starts thanks to an 0.54 ERA. In July, he’s 0-2 in three starts with a relatively astronomical ERA of 2.08. Keuchel owns a 1.80 ERA in two starts against Texas, but no decisions.

Finally, the Cubs and Braves battle for a wild card slot as Jake Arrieta takes on Shelby Miller. Arrieta is 6-1 on the road with a 2.39 ERA, allowing just three home runs in 60 1/3 innings. Miller allows a .194 BA with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

July 7, 2015

Games of the Day

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Johnny Cueto takes on Max Scherzer as the Reds continue their series with the Nationals. Cueto may be a huge trade chip for the Reds. This is his fifth straight season with an ERA under 3.00, so whoever picks him up gets a high quality pitcher. With 139 K and 14 walks, Scherzer is just a hair off a 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Arizona’s Robbie Ray and Texas’s Yovani Gallardo own nearly identical ERA, Ray one point better at 2.55. Neither pitcher appears to get much support, however, as Ray comes in with a 2-4 record in seven starts, and Gallardo is 7-6 in 17 starts.

In the all K.G. game, Kevin Gausman and the Orioles face Kyle Gibson and the Twins. Gausman pitched about the same number of innings in relief and as a starter, but owns a 1.59 ERA in the rotation, 4.50 coming out of the pen. Gibson allows a .181 BA with runners in scoring position. He seems to be pitching carefully, as he allowed nearly half his walks in that situation for a .320 OBP.

Enjoy!

June 27, 2015

Games of the Day

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Yovani Gallardo leads the Rangers against the Blue Jays, with Matt Boyd making his major league debut for Toronto. Gallardo did a great job stepping into the ace role after Texas lost Yu Darvish. In June, Gallardo posted an 0.72 ERA so far, but is just 1-0 in four starts. Boyd comes to the majors with three seasons of great three-true outcome numbers and very few hits allowed.

The Royals are starting to pull away from the AL Central as they send Chris Young against Oakland and Scott Kazmir. Young seems rejuvenated with the Royals, allowing just 45 hits in 63 2/3 innings, with a 3.14 ERA as a starter. Kazmir owns a 1.27 ERA at home and has not allowed a home run in Oakland this season.

Masahiro Tanaka and Brett Oberholtzer battle as the Yankees continue their series with the Astros. Tanaka gave up quite a few hits in his last two starts. He was able to pitch well in one of those despite the hits, but got knocked around his last time out. His walks and strikeouts were good, but the four home runs hurt. Oberholtzer is a reverse lefty this year, a Tommy John pitcher. His fastball isn’t all that fast, but he induces a high number of ground balls. With a good defense behind him, he’ll do well.

Finally, Clayton Kershaw takes on Tom Koehler as the Dodgers and Marlins continue their series. Kershaw’s “off year” is mostly due to his home runs allowed. He gave up 11 already, after allowing nine for the season in 2014. The most he ever gave up in a season is 16 in 2012. Despite a low OBP allowed, five of the 11 homers came with men on base. Koehler doesn’t allow rallies to start, giving up a .282 OBP with the bases empty. He falls apart with runners on base, however, with a .304/.373/.480 slash line allowed.

Enjoy!

June 15, 2015

Games of the Day

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Interleague week starts Monday, with four days of all interleague games.

Carlos Rodon leads the White Sox into Pittsburgh to face Francisco Liriano. Rodon is mowing down batters as a starter, with 36 K in 34 1/3 innings since moving into the rotation. Liriano had a 5.40 ERA for the White Sox in 2012. Since he left, Liriano owns a 3.21 ERA.

The Dodgers travel to Texas as Carlos Frias takes on Yovani Gallardo. Frias is flirting with disaster as he works with a .309 BA and a .357 OBP. He’s only allowed 11 extra base hits however, only three home runs. Gallardo owns a 2.65 ERA at home, where only two of his seven home runs left the yard.

Finally, Colorado rolls into Houston as Chad Bettis squares off against Dallas Keuchel. Bettis has yet to allow a home run despite pitching 25 1/3 of his 38 1/3 innings at Coors Field. Keuchel enters play on Monday with a 1.90 ERA. He’s yet to allow a home run at home in 49 innings.

Enjoy!

April 22, 2015

Games of the Day

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John Lackey leads the Cardinals against Doug Fister and the Nationals.

Johnny Cueto and the Reds face Jimmy Nelson and the Brewers. Nelson owns a great K/BB so far.

Yovani Gallardo and Archie Bradley matchup as Texas visits Arizona.

Finally, the game of the year so far as Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers battle Madison Bumgarner and the Giants. Both own high ERAs right now. Kershaw is allowing home runs, while Bumgarner’s strikeouts are down.

Enjoy!

January 18, 2015

Gallardo to the Rangers

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Reports are out that the Brewers will trade Yovani Gallardo to the Rangers.

Gallardo was drafted by the Brewers in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft and has played all eight of his major league seasons with the team. He could have become a free agent this off-season, but Milwaukee chose to exercise an option on him that will see him paid $13 million in 2015. Now, it appears the Rangers will be paying that sum.

The addition of Gallardo will serve to solidify the bottom of the Rangers’ rotation, though how it helps the Brewers remains to be seen. Best guess would assume that there is at least some strong bullpen help coming back to Milwaukee, though anything other than that is up in the air. This also indicates that both Jimmy Nelson and Mike Fiers will be in the rotation to start 2015, with Taylor Jungmann — for now — the assumed sixth starter.

Gallardo saw a big drop in his strike out rate in 2013, and an uptick in his ERA. His ERA recovered in 2014, but not his strike out rate. I would guess his 2013 ERA would be the more likely outcome going forward.

Gallardo is a pretty good hitter, with 12 career home runs. We’ll see if Texas goes out of their way to pitch him in NL parks.

September 25, 2014

Games of the Day

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The Brewers find themselves not yet dead as Yovani Gallardo takes on David Holmberg. In 27 major league innings, Holmberg walked 18 and struck out 16, allowing seven home runs. He seems to not have heard of the three-true outcomes.

The Nationals can clinch home field advantage in the NL playoffs with a sweep of the Mets in today’s split admission double header. The Nationals win the tie break with the Dodgers, so a three-game lead with three to play gives them home field.

Seattle sends Tom Wilhelmsen with a 2.10 ERA against Daniel Norris. Norris makes his first major league start after four relief appearances. The Mariners stopped the carnage of the Blues Jays offense Wednesday night, but still lost 1-0. Wilhelmsen, with 71 K in 77 innings, hopes to give the Mariners offense a chance to keep the team in the playoff race for another day.

The Royals and Athletics can clinch a tie for the wild card with wins, and a definite spot if the win is combined with a Seattle loss. Jason Hammel takes of the Athletics takes on Colby Lewis in Texas, while James Shields pitches for the Royals against Jose Quintana of the White Sox.

Enjoy!

September 19, 2014

Games of the Day

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Take a late lunch if you’d like to watch Clayton Kershaw pitch against Edwin Jackson as the Dodgers play the Cubs in an afternoon tilt. If you draw the innings line at 135 IP, Kershaw and Jackson are at opposite ends of the spectrum, Kershaw with the best ERA in the majors, Jackson the worst.

Milwaukee finds itself in desperate needs of a win as they face the Pirates in the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh. The Pirates magic number for a wild card slot is seven, and a sweep of Milwaukee would guarantee at least a tie. Yovani Gallardo takes on Jeff Locke. Gallardo owns a 2.97 ERA against the Pirates this season in five starts. He’s only 1-1 however, as he seems to get out of the games before he can get in real trouble. Locke is great at keeping batters off base, with a .273 OBP with the bases empty. Once runners are on, however, batters post a .314/.372/.484 slash line against him. It’s hard to get the ball rolling against Locke, but difficult to stop it once it’s going.

The Tigers and Royals open their final battle for the AL Central title. Both teams hope V is for victory as Justin Verlander takes on Jason Vargas. The one-time Tigers ace owns a 5.55 ERA against KC this season, striking out just 18 batters in 32 1/3 innings. Vargas isn’t much better, with a 5.18 ERA against the Tigers. He allowed five home run in 24 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

August 27, 2014

Games of the Day

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Adam Wainwright and Jeff Locke get the day off to a great start as the Cardinals and Pirates play the rubber game of their series.

Tampa Bay has been reduced to spoilers at this point. Their trade for Drew Smyly worked out well as they send him against Kevin Gausman in Baltimore.

At the other end of that trade, Shane Greene takes on David Price as the Yankees try to even their series with Detroit.

Yovani Gallardo and Odrisamer Despaigne battle as the Brewers face the Padres in the best pitching matchup on the west coast tonight.

Clayton Kershaw is within striking distance of Johnny Cueto in the NL Cy Young Tracker points race as the Dodgers play the Diamondbacks. Wade Miley stands in opposition.

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August 22, 2014

Games of the Day

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The Giants fight for a playoff spot as they face the streaking Nationals with Tim Hudson taking on Doug Fister. Hudson is posting his best ERA since 2010, 3.03, but only has an 8-9 record to show for it. Fister started six fewer games, but owns a 12-3 record. With 11 homers and 14 walks allowed so far, he has a shot at allowing more homers than walks.

The Pirates cold streak left them six games behind the Brewers as they open a series in Milwaukee. Jeff Locke battles Yovani Gallardo. Locke held the Brewers to one run in seven innings in his one start against them this season, but took the loss. Gallardo made four starts against the Pirates so far. His 2.49 ERA has been good for just a 1-0 record in those games.

Finally, the Angels lead the Athletics by two games as they open a series in Oakland. Hector Santiago takes on Sonny Gray. Santiago is 1-7 in 17 starts this season, although he hasn’t lost since the All-Star break. Gray is 0-4 in August after a 5-0 July. Balls in play against him are finding holes this month.

Enjoy!

August 16, 2014

Games of the Day

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The Yankees are fading and the Rays are surging as Shane Greene faces Drew Smyly in Tampa Bay. One game separates the AL East rivals as both try to chase Seattle for the second wild card slot. Greene holds batters to a .227 BA, but his walk rate brings the opposition up to a .301 OBP. Smyly struck out 15 in 13 innings since joining the Rays, helping him to a 2.08 ERA with his new club.

Seattle at Detroit combines a great pitching match-up with a very important game as Felix Hernandez and David Price pitch for the second wild card slot. Seattle leads Detroit by 1/2 game. Hernandez is the clear Cy Young leader at this point, with 13 wins and a 1.95 ERA. He’s only allowed seven homers in 180 1/3 innings, the best single season rate of his career. Price’s walks and strikeouts are great since joining Detroit, but three home runs in 14 2/3 innings led to a 4.30 ERA with his new team. His 23 home runs in 185 1/3 innings, compared to just seven for Hernandz is the big difference between the two.

Oakland finds themselves down to a one game lead over the Angels in the AL West as they send Sonny Gray against Julio Teheran and the Braves. Gray has faltered in August, with a 4.30 ERA and an 0-3 record. His strikeout rate dropped a bit, making him hittable. Teheran owns a 7.43 ERA in two August starts, and despite a high K rate, he is very hittable this month.

Finally, the Brewers take on the Dodgers with a battle between Yovani Gallardo and Clayton Kershaw. Gallardo does his best work on the road this season, 5-2 with a 2.74 ERA. He’s allowed just five of his 15 home runs away from Milwaukee. Kershaw goes for his 15th win in his 20th start. He allowed just six home runs and 19 walks while striking out 163. We like to use K/BB as a measure of pitching strength, but K/(BB+HR) puts Kershaw’s season second in the expansion ERA (1969 on), minimum 130 IP. Pedro Martinez in 1999 had a 6.80 K/(BB+HR), and Greg Maddux‘s 1997 and 1995 seasons rank third and fourth at 6.10 and 5.84. Pedro also has the fifth best season in that time frame at 5.80 in 2000.

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August 6, 2014

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Oakland goes for a sweep of the Rays at the Coliseum with Jeremy Hellickson facing Sonny Gray.

Jonathon Niese and Doug Fister square off in Washington as the Mets try to gain another game on the Nationals.

In a possible playoff preview, the Giants continue their series with the Brewers with Ryan Vogelson taking on Yovani Gallardo.

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July 30, 2014

Games of the Day

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The Rays go for a sweep of the Brewers at home, and their 12th win in their last 13 games as Yovani Gallardo battles David Price.

The Marlins are nearly as hot as they go for a sweep of the Nationals. Miami won six games in a row and nine of their last ten as Tanner Roark takes on Brad Hand.

Corey Kluber is one of many AL pitchers trying to catch Felix Hernandez in AL Cy Young Tracker points. The two pitch in Cleveland as the Indians try to even the series with the Mariners.

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July 11, 2014

Games of the Day

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The Braves send Alex Wood against the best pitcher left on the Cubs, Jake Arrieta. It’s too bad Travis Wood is not pitching for the Cubs, as references to the woodchuck tongue twister, taking someone to the woodshed, and the song, “Afternoon Delight” would undoubtedly abound.

The Yankees begin a series with the first-place Orioles with the only starter left from their projected 2014 rotation, Hiroki Kuroda. It’s a fairly even match-up in game one as Kuroda and Miguel Gonzalez own similar ERAs, 4.20 for Kuroda and 4.22 for Gonzalez.

The pre-break seasons ends with two excellent series in the tight NL Central. Three and one half games separate the top four teams. The number four Pirates visit the number three Reds at 7 PM EDT with Jeff Locke facing Mat Latos. An hour later, the number two Cardinals visit the division leading Brewers with Joe Kelly taking on Yovani Gallardo.

The Rays need to pass three teams to climb to the top of the AL East, and one of them is the Blue Jays. Mark Buehrle and Chris Archer start off the three-game series.

Finally, Jeff Samardzija gets a tough assignment for Oakland as he faces Felix Hernandez and the Mariners.

Enjoy!