Tag Archives: Matt Kemp

September 17, 2024

48-48 Club

Shohei Ohtani hit his 48th home run of the season to match his 48 steals. That gives him a power/speed number of 48, second all-time to Ronald Acuna Jr.in 2023. In looking at the top PS numbers, none of the top scores came with the same number of home runs and steals. Ohtani seems to have been even a number of times this season. Canseco in 1988 and Bonds in 1996 were both 42 home runs and 40 steals. Soriano in 2002 was 39 HR and 41 SB. Vladimir Guerrero in 2002 and Matt Kemp in 2011 were both 39 home runs and 40 steals. You need to go down to Shawn Green in 1998, who was 35-35. Maybe it’s a Dodgers thing.

Also, with the top two PS number coming in the era of bigger bases and limited pick offs, some people might see Alex Rodriguez‘s 1998 season of 42 homer and 46 steals, a 43.9 PS, as the best power-speed season of all time. On the other hand, most of the other high PS numbers came in the steroid era, so maybe this is a good ranking after all.

December 21, 2018

Dodgers Making Room?

The Reds got a lot better today as the Dodgers appear to be making room on their roster:


The Los Angeles Dodgers are trading outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig and pitcher Alex Wood to the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Homer Bailey and prospects, according to multiple reports.


Also reportedly headed to the Dodgers are shortstop Jeter Downs, who was a first-round pick (No. 32) in the 2017 draft, and right-handed pitcher Josiah Gray, a second-round pick (No. 72) this past summer who turned 21 on Friday.

ESPN.com

So the Dodgers trade three good players for the oft injured Homer Bailey. Downs is very young, but does an excellent job of getting on base. Gray played in rookie ball this year and struck out 59 in 52 1/3 innings, walking just 17.

This looks like a deal that foreshadows the the Dodgers signing someone big. Given that an outfield spot is now open, I’m assuming they are going after Bryce Harper.

For the Reds, they get a strong starting pitcher, someone who can be the ace of the staff. Kemp gives them a good veteran presence to go along with Joey Votto, and Puig can generate two to three WAR. The Reds are sending the message to their fans that they are trying to win, and they should put a better team on the field in 2019.

November 28, 2018

Comeback Kemp

Matt Kemp wins the comeback player of the year award:

Less than a year ago, the Dodgers reacquired Matt Kemp from the Atlanta Braves, but it was not heralded as a romantic homecoming. The move’s primary objective was to create financial flexibility. A productive season from the fan favorite — if the Dodgers didn’t deal him before it started — was secondary.

Kemp wound up becoming more valuable than expected and Tuesday he was selected as the National League comeback player of the year, as voted on by players in the National League.

The veteran outfielder was an All-Star for the first time since 2012 after batting .310 with 15 home runs and an .874 on-base-plus-slugging percentage.

The Dodgers are very good in general at finding hitters that appear to have little value and getting more offense out of them. While they spend tons of money, they balance that with their ability to exploit inefficiencies in the market. They did that with Kemp, the main difference is that Kemp had a level to which he could return.

October 23, 2018 September 2, 2018

Happy Kempers

After the Diamondbacks take a 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth inning on a Daniel Descalso lead-off home run, Matt Kemp once again comes through in the clutch. Two batters walked and were sacrificed to second and third. The Diamondback bring in Archie Bradley, and Kemp blasts a double off the outfield wall to win the game 3-2. He’s slugging .476 this season, and came into the day hitting .350 with runners in scoring position.

July 17, 2018

Compact Power

The AP notes the number of power hitters in the All-Star came who are relatively small. They kind of lump Alex Bregman in the group, although he’s the same height and weight as Hank Aaron.

The most interesting part of the article, however, is toward the end where Justin Verlander blames the ball for home runs, while Matt Kemp blames the pitchers:

”Honestly, I feel like everybody is throwing harder. You don’t have to hit the ball as hard anymore,” Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp said. ”Honestly, all you have to do is square it up and the ball is going to fly if they mess up. These guys are throwing really hard. Strikeouts are up. Home runs are up. Everything is up. It’s just a game of who throws harder and who can square it up.”

Maybe the next inefficiency to exploit is the Tommy John type pitcher.

July 10, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.319 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.317 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.310 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.305 — Justin Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — Adrian Beltre batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.301 — Nick Markakis batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.301 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.298 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.297 — Jose Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.297 — Chris Taylor batting against Eric Lauer.
0.296 — Andrew Toles batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sal Romano.
0.295 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.291 — Adam C Eaton batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.291 — Ozzie Albies batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.290 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Dylan Covey.
0.289 — Matthew Adams batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.288 — Steve Pearce batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.287 — Trea Turner batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.287 — Yadier Molina batting against Dylan Covey.
0.287 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.285 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Matt Kemp makes the All-Star team and the top of the Log5 list in the same week! Lauer allowed a .367 BABIP this year. Batted balls seem to find holes against him.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.741 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.344, 0.740 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.277, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.317, 0.734 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.287, 0.733 — Albert Almora batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.310, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.301, 0.718 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.305, 0.717 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.261, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.
0.297, 0.715 — Jose Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.304, 0.714 — Adrian Beltre batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.289, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.298, 0.712 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295, 0.712 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.268, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.301, 0.710 — Nick Markakis batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282, 0.709 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.290, 0.705 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Dylan Covey.
0.261, 0.705 — Scooter Gennett batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.285, 0.704 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.272, 0.703 — Avisail Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.258, 0.703 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sean Manaea.
0.291, 0.703 — Ozzie Albies batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295, 0.703 — Francisco Lindor batting against Sal Romano.
0.276, 0.702 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson.

Notice that batters against Lauer don’t appear as often on this list. The NN does a better job of filtering out pitchers with small sample sizes of data. J.D. Martinez and Kemp are tied for consensus first pick today. Martinez is 5 for 15 career against Gallardo with a double and two strikeouts.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 9, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.331 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.327 — Albert Almora batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.320 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Javier Baez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.299 — Adam C Eaton batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Michael Brantley batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.298 — Anthony Rendon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — Mark Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
0.294 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.288 — Juan Soto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.285 — Yasiel Puig batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.285 — Justin Turner batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.282 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.282 — Josh Reddick batting against Frankie Montas.
0.281 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.281 — Chris Taylor batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jose Urena.
0.279 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.279 — Wilmer Difo batting against Ivan Nova.

It looks like it could be a good day for the Nationals offense. Note that Puig is likely headed for the disabled list.

Altuve is 3 for 4 career against Montas.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.341, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.327, 0.750 — Albert Almora batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.331, 0.739 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.320, 0.735 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.299, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.287, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.294, 0.716 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.713 — Javier Baez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.306, 0.713 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.273, 0.710 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.306, 0.706 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.281, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.275, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.293, 0.702 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.278, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Minor.
0.299, 0.701 — Adam C Eaton batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282, 0.699 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.298, 0.697 — Anthony Rendon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.254, 0.696 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chase Anderson.
0.279, 0.693 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.270, 0.693 — Adam Jones batting against CC Sabathia.
0.296, 0.692 — Mark Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
0.271, 0.691 — Manny Machado batting against CC Sabathia.
0.276, 0.690 — Odubel Herrera batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.280, 0.690 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jose Urena.
0.265, 0.690 — Adam Jones batting against Luis Cessa.

Altuve is the consensus first pick, with Kemp and Almora tied for second. Of course, Almora is usually benched when he’s rated highly by the NN.

Note that there are two double headers on Monday, the Yankees at the Orioles and the Phillies at the Mets. Be careful picking players from those games, make sure they are in the starting lineup against that particular pitcher.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 3, 2018

Blowout City

The Dodgers blew away the Pirates Monday night 17-1. It is the fifth time this season a team scored at least 17 runs in a game. The Dodgers collected 21 hits and six walks, while Pittsburgh made three errors. Los Angeles hit four home runs in the game, but three of them were solo shots and the quartet of long balls accounted for just six of the runs. The Dodgers hitters just kept coming to the plate with men on base and delivering, going 9 for 21 with runners in scoring position. Matt Kemp had the big night, going 5 for 5 with a double and a home run.

The Dodgers have scored at least 12 runs five times this season. The Cubs lead the majors scoring at least 12 runs seven times. Cleveland, Toronto, and Milwaukee are tied with the Dodgers with five such games.

July 3, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova.
0.329 — Odubel Herrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.305 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.302 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Alex Cobb.
0.302 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.296 — Maikel Franco batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.295 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.295 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.292 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292 — Brandon Crawford batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.290 — Buster Posey batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.289 — Nick Williams batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.285 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.284 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.284 — Anthony Rendon batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284 — Adam Jones batting against Zach Eflin.
0.283 — Adam C Eaton batting against Brian Johnson.
0.283 — Justin Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283 — Jed Lowrie batting against Clayton Richard.

Matt Kemp comes off a five hit night, so he’s a little hot. Kemp is 3 for 9 career against Nova with no strikeouts and no walks. Alex Cobb gives up so many hits, I had to remove a number of Phillies pitchers from the list.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.321, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.304, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.332, 0.740 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299, 0.736 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.305, 0.731 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.329, 0.723 — Odubel Herrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295, 0.723 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.295, 0.721 — Matt M Duffy batting against Trevor Richards.
0.280, 0.718 — Scooter Gennett batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.281, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.288, 0.714 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.284, 0.713 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.296, 0.713 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.290, 0.710 — Buster Posey batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.280, 0.709 — Avisail Garcia batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.280, 0.708 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284, 0.708 — Adam Jones batting against Zach Eflin.
0.281, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.285, 0.707 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.267, 0.703 — Eddie Rosario batting against Junior Guerra.
0.273, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
0.276, 0.701 — Jose Martinez batting against Zack Greinke.
0.292, 0.701 — Brandon Crawford batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.271, 0.701 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Heaney.

Altuve hits the top spot again, trading the third slot with Kemp. They are tied for the consensus first choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 8, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Matt Kemp batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.352 — Jean Segura batting against Wilmer Font.
0.341 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.337 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.333 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.332 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.325 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Weaver.
0.316 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.315 — Brian Anderson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.315 — Yadier Molina batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Dee Gordon batting against Wilmer Font.
0.309 — Derek Dietrich batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Thomas Pham batting against Matt Harvey.
0.305 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.296 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Doug Fister.
0.296 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Matt Harvey.
0.294 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.292 — Yairo Munoz batting against Matt Harvey.
0.292 — Justin Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.290 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.290 — Harrison Bader batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.288 — Luke Voit batting against Matt Harvey.
0.286 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.

Matt Kemp found his stroke again. After three years of sub-par performance, he’s hitting like an MVP. That’s been good news for the Dodgers, given the injuries to stars this season.

Wilmer Font makes his first ever start as the Rays continue to use the opener strategy. Font allowed 34 hits this season in 23 relief innings, and 11 of those 34 hits were home runs. It might be a good day to double down on Gordon and Segura, since they could easily lead off with hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.337, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.352, 0.767 — Jean Segura batting against Wilmer Font.
0.361, 0.758 — Matt Kemp batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.341, 0.744 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318, 0.743 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Weaver.
0.332, 0.731 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.333, 0.730 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.325, 0.727 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey.
0.316, 0.726 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.313, 0.725 — Dee Gordon batting against Wilmer Font.
0.288, 0.723 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.294, 0.722 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.290, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.296, 0.717 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Doug Fister.
0.305, 0.716 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.286, 0.716 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
0.315, 0.716 — Yadier Molina batting against Matt Harvey.
0.279, 0.715 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.272, 0.713 — Nick Castellanos batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.280, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zack Greinke.
0.272, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zack Greinke.
0.273, 0.703 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.315, 0.701 — Brian Anderson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.267, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.305, 0.697 — Thomas Pham batting against Matt Harvey.
0.266, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting against Walker Buehler.

Jose Altuve pops to the top again, his .771 probability of a hit one of the highest of the year. Segura and Kemp are tied for the consensus first pick. It’s a target rich environment for hits tonight! Altuve is 4 for 12 against Fister in his career with two strikeouts and no walks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 7, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.317 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.312 — Matt Kemp batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.311 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — Manny Machado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.303 — Adam Jones batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.302 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.298 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jason Hammel.
0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.294 — Corey Dickerson batting against Dennis Santana.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.292 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jalen Beeks.
0.291 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.290 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.289 — Joey Wendle batting against Mike Leake.
0.289 — Jean Segura batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.285 — Joey Votto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.281 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.279 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Jason Hammel.
0.278 — Starlin Castro batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277 — Starling Marte batting against Dennis Santana.
0.276 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.276 — Jose Peraza batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.275 — C.J. Cron batting against Mike Leake.
0.273 — Eddie Rosario batting against James Shields.

Gennett continues to hit well, one for three with a walk and two RBI last night in a losing cause as the Reds fell to the Rockies. Anderson’s hit average, however, is mostly a Coors effect as he allows a .231/.314/.438 slash line on the road.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.329, 0.750 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.281, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.312, 0.741 — Matt Kemp batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.317, 0.724 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.292, 0.723 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jalen Beeks.
0.311, 0.720 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.720 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.302, 0.720 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.294, 0.718 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.294, 0.716 — Corey Dickerson batting against Dennis Santana.
0.303, 0.713 — Adam Jones batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.290, 0.712 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.304, 0.711 — Manny Machado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.273, 0.709 — Eddie Rosario batting against James Shields.
0.291, 0.707 — Gerardo Parra batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.259, 0.706 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.278, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277, 0.701 — Starling Marte batting against Dennis Santana.
0.276, 0.700 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.298, 0.699 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jason Hammel.
0.285, 0.698 — Joey Votto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.257, 0.696 — Dee Gordon batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.266, 0.695 — Jose Martinez batting against Trevor Richards.
0.252, 0.693 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Cole Hamels.

Gennett is the unanimous first choice for the second day in a row. Matt Kemp is the consensus second choice. Note that Altuve has not hit Hamels well in his career, 6 for 25 with three hit by pitches.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 3, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.346 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.333 — Gleyber Torres batting against Alex Cobb.
0.326 — Austin Romine batting against Alex Cobb.
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.314 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Doug Fister.
0.311 — Didi Gregorius batting against Alex Cobb.
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.310 — Aaron Judge batting against Alex Cobb.
0.307 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.304 — Jose Abreu batting against Brent Suter.
0.301 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Brett Gardner batting against Alex Cobb.
0.298 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.291 — Greg Bird batting against Alex Cobb.
0.291 — Albert Almora batting against Steven Matz.
0.289 — Neil Walker batting against Alex Cobb.
0.289 — Aaron Hicks batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Tyler Austin batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Nick Castellanos batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.287 — Michael Moustakas batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.287 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Rick Porcello.
0.283 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Brent Suter.
0.282 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyson Ross.
0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.

Gary Sanchez appears to be the only Yankees regular who doesn’t make the list against Alex Cobb. Cobb currently owns a .356/.392/.609 opponents slash line. Torreyes is at the top, but he seldom starts. The rookies Andujar and Torres look like good picks today.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.351, 0.746 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.311, 0.739 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.314, 0.726 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Doug Fister.
0.291, 0.725 — Albert Almora batting against Steven Matz.
0.280, 0.723 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.307, 0.723 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.288, 0.723 — Nick Castellanos batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.346, 0.723 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.282, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyson Ross.
0.304, 0.722 — Jose Abreu batting against Brent Suter.
0.255, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Blake Snell.
0.287, 0.714 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Rick Porcello.
0.298, 0.713 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.265, 0.708 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.333, 0.707 — Gleyber Torres batting against Alex Cobb.
0.277, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.261, 0.703 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Alex Wood.
0.269, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Wacha.
0.266, 0.702 — Nolan Arenado batting against Alex Wood.
0.274, 0.701 — Wilson Ramos batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.266, 0.700 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.276, 0.700 — Matt M Duffy batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.311, 0.699 — Didi Gregorius batting against Alex Cobb.
0.256, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Wood.
0.262, 0.698 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Wacha.

The three season stretches (20016-2018 in this case) are more important to the NN than the current season. For Cobb, his three-year hit average is .268, while it stands at .332 for this season. The Yankees rookies, Andujar and Torres have their three-year hit averages greatly regressed toward the current mean of .223. It’s that moderation by the NN that prevents one pitcher from dominating the list.

Altuve is very consistent, with a .306 hit average for 2018 and for 2016-2018. That’s why he’s often #1 on the list. He’s 2 for 10 with a double and a home run against Porcello, with one strikeout. That includes the post-season. Ronald Torreyes is the consensus first choice, but if you pick him, make sure he’s starting.

Matt Kemp at Coors is always a good choice. He now has the third most visiting at bats at the park.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 2, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.322 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.317 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.315 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.312 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Archer.
0.310 — Trea Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.307 — Mark Reynolds batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.305 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance Lynn.
0.305 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.303 — Joey Votto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.302 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.300 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299 — Anthony Rendon batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.298 — Travis Jankowski batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
0.294 — Jed Lowrie batting against Jason Hammel.
0.293 — Starling Marte batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.293 — Matthew Adams batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.292 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.291 — Joey Wendle batting against Marco Gonzales.

Gennett returns to the top of the list. He is tied with Kemp for the NL lead in batting average. Gennett owns the higher OBP, so Kemp has the higher hit average. I suspect when the NN includes the park, Kemp might come out on top. Let’s see.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.361, 0.760 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.312, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Archer.
0.293, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.313, 0.738 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.322, 0.732 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.305, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance Lynn.
0.317, 0.729 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.302, 0.721 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.283, 0.720 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.
0.305, 0.717 — Odubel Herrera batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.313, 0.716 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.293, 0.715 — Starling Marte batting against Luke Weaver.
0.297, 0.715 — Corey Dickerson batting against Luke Weaver.
0.315, 0.713 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Harvey.
0.310, 0.710 — Trea Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.283, 0.710 — Jose Ramirez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.263, 0.708 — Albert Almora batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.279, 0.708 — Dee Gordon batting against Chris Archer.
0.286, 0.706 — Buster Posey batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.262, 0.705 — Eddie Rosario batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.276, 0.701 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Greinke.
0.269, 0.700 — Jose Abreu batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.272, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Zack Greinke.
0.288, 0.697 — Brandon Crawford batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.307, 0.697 — Mark Reynolds batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.305, 0.697 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.

Gennett is the consensus first choice. Lauer’s regressed hit average against comes in at .303, and that’s more than enough to swamp the big advantage of playing in Coors. The BABIP against Lauer is .408. Duffy is the consensus second choice. Duffy owns 53 and nine walks this season in 177 PA, so his OBP comes mostly from hits. He is the type of player who should be good at extending hit streaks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 1, 2018

Maybe They Should Call it Koors

Matt Kemp continues his domination of Coors Field with a solo home run in the top of the first inning. The Dodgers lead the Rockies. 2-0. The Dodgers are also starting reliever Scott Alexander, going with the opener option to get a lefty against the top of the Rockies order.

June 1, 2018

Games of the Day

The battle for the NL East continues with Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals facing Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves. Strasburg owns a 1.97 ERA on the road this season, where he allowed just three of his 10 home runs. Foltynewicz stands at 4-3 on the season despite a 2.55 ERA. That’s actually worse than it looks, since he is 3-2 on the road with a 1.87 ERA! He’s holding opponents to a .189 BA with runners in scoring position.

First place teams send great pitcher to the mound as Chris Sale and the Red Sox face Gerrit Cole and the Astros. Sale continues his amazing season with 104 K in 75 innings with just 20 walks. For the second year in a row, his WHIP is below 1.0. Cole is even better, with 109 K in 74 2/3 innings with just 19 walks. Don’t expect a lot of batters reaching base in this game.

The Dodgers visit the Rockies to try to tighten up the race in the NL West. The unknown starter takes on Tyler Anderson. Anderson posted a 1.88 ERA in April, but a 5.28 mark in May. The Rockies are hoping that June is closer to that earlier streak. Matt Kemp should move into third place on the All-Time visiting At Bat leaders at Coors. Given his success there, he should stay in the NL West for a long time.

Enjoy!

June 1, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.319 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.318 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.316 — Albert Almora batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.311 — Jean Segura batting against Sergio Romo.
0.308 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.301 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.300 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Lockett.
0.295 — Joey Wendle batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Javier Baez batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.294 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.289 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.288 — Jed Lowrie batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.287 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.287 — Tommy La Stella batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.285 — Mallex Smith batting against Mike Leake.
0.284 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282 — C.J. Cron batting against Mike Leake.
0.282 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281 — Dee Gordon batting against Sergio Romo.
0.281 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.280 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.280 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.279 — Starling Marte batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.279 — Jose Pirela batting against Tyler Mahle.

Ramos continues to have an outstanding year for the Rays at the plate. He does not hit Leake for average, but he does hit him for power.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.747 — Jean Segura batting against Sergio Romo.
0.319, 0.741 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.325, 0.738 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Leake.
0.300, 0.732 — Scooter Gennett batting against Andrew Lockett.
0.316, 0.732 — Albert Almora batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.260, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Sale.
0.308, 0.730 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.301, 0.727 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.318, 0.726 — Matt M Duffy batting against Mike Leake.
0.271, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Berrios.
0.294, 0.714 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.281, 0.712 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.281, 0.710 — Dee Gordon batting against Sergio Romo.
0.289, 0.709 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.279, 0.706 — Starling Marte batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.278, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.271, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Dennis Santana.
0.287, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting against Sonny Gray.
0.281, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.282, 0.700 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.261, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Dennis Santana.
0.280, 0.698 — Adam Jones batting against Sonny Gray.
0.294, 0.697 — Javier Baez batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.265, 0.696 — Jose Abreu batting against Chase Anderson.
0.246, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.265, 0.695 — Jon Jay batting against Frankie Montas.

Note that the Dodgers have not named a starter for tonight, but one source has him as Dennis Santana. Note also that I went out to 26 on this list since Mookie Betts has not started in a few days, but has not gone on the disabled list.

Jean Segura pops to the top of this chart. He leads the majors with 26 multi-hit games. Kemp and Ramos are tied for the consensus first choice. Despite facing Chris Sale, Jose Altuve still ranks very high on the list.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

May 25, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.331 — Matt Kemp batting against Clayton Richard.
0.303 — Nolan Arenado batting against Sal Romano.
0.302 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Fiers.
0.300 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.290 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sal Romano.
0.288 — Odubel Herrera batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.286 — Joey Votto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Jose Peraza batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.282 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sal Romano.
0.282 — Wilson Ramos batting against David Hess.
0.281 — Matt M Duffy batting against David Hess.
0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.280 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279 — Christian Yelich batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.278 — Mookie Betts batting against Julio Teheran.
0.278 — Tucker Barnhart batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.278 — Jon Jay batting against Mike Minor.
0.278 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.275 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard.
0.275 — Albert Almora batting against Derek Holland.
0.275 — J.D. Martinez batting against Julio Teheran.
0.275 — Corey Dickerson batting against John Gant.
0.275 — Welington Castillo batting against Michael Fiers.
0.275 — Jonathan Villar batting against Noah Syndergaard.

scooter Gennett is doing well lately. He’s fairly high hit, low walk player, so he’s a good candidate for extending a hit streak (although he did not do so yesterday).

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.338, 0.744 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.331, 0.736 — Matt Kemp batting against Clayton Richard.
0.303, 0.722 — Nolan Arenado batting against Sal Romano.
0.302, 0.721 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Fiers.
0.273, 0.721 — Jean Segura batting against Fernando Romero.
0.280, 0.718 — Michael Brantley batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.288, 0.717 — Odubel Herrera batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.275, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Julio Teheran.
0.278, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Julio Teheran.
0.247, 0.708 — Jose Altuve batting against Corey Kluber.
0.290, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sal Romano.
0.285, 0.707 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.282, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sal Romano.
0.300, 0.706 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.275, 0.705 — Albert Almora batting against Derek Holland.
0.282, 0.700 — Wilson Ramos batting against David Hess.
0.275, 0.699 — Corey Dickerson batting against John Gant.
0.257, 0.698 — Dee Gordon batting against Fernando Romero.
0.274, 0.697 — Nick Markakis batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.265, 0.695 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.259, 0.694 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.281, 0.693 — Matt M Duffy batting against David Hess.
0.278, 0.691 — Jon Jay batting against Mike Minor.
0.246, 0.690 — Nick Castellanos batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.280, 0.689 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.261, 0.687 — Freddie Freeman batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.267, 0.687 — Manny Machado batting against Sergio Romo.

The systems are in perfect agreement today with Gennett and Kemp at the top of the list. Both are hitting well this year, hitting decently over a three-year span, and facing a pitcher with a history of giving up hits. Clayton Richard found a new arm slot recently, and is pitching better, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

May 21, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.306 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.293 — Jose Martinez batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.287 — Eddie Rosario batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.286 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.285 — Justin Turner batting against German Marquez.
0.284 — Miguel Rojas batting against Jason Vargas.
0.283 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.282 — Brian Anderson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — Michael Moustakas batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Whit Merrifield batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.279 — Jon Jay batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.278 — Thomas Pham batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.278 — Jose Abreu batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.277 — Manny Machado batting against Hector Santiago.
0.276 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.275 — Nolan Arenado batting against Walker Buehler.
0.274 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.272 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.269 — Derek Dietrich batting against Jason Vargas.
0.267 — Chris Taylor batting against German Marquez.
0.265 — Cody Bellinger batting against German Marquez.
0.265 — Miguel Andujar batting against Bartolo Colon.

Castro is consistently a high batting average hitter who doesn’t walk a lot, a perfect players for extending a hit streak. Vargas allowed 26 hits in 12 1/3 innings so far this season. Castro is 3 for 8 against Vargas career.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.314, 0.721 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312, 0.719 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.283, 0.715 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306, 0.713 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.299, 0.712 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.287, 0.710 — Eddie Rosario batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.272, 0.709 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.293, 0.704 — Jose Martinez batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.286, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.275, 0.704 — Nolan Arenado batting against Walker Buehler.
0.278, 0.702 — Jose Abreu batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.277, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against Hector Santiago.
0.281, 0.697 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.281, 0.697 — Whit Merrifield batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.276, 0.697 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.285, 0.694 — Justin Turner batting against German Marquez.
0.279, 0.692 — Jon Jay batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281, 0.692 — Michael Moustakas batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.251, 0.685 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jose Berrios.
0.253, 0.684 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Walker Buehler.
0.274, 0.684 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.257, 0.682 — Gerardo Parra batting against Walker Buehler.
0.278, 0.681 — Thomas Pham batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.284, 0.679 — Miguel Rojas batting against Jason Vargas.
0.265, 0.676 — Miguel Andujar batting against Bartolo Colon.

Both system agree on the 1-2 hitters today, Castro and Kemp.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

May 11, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.324 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Harvey.
0.317 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.302 — Starlin Castro batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.299 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.295 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Boyd.
0.295 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.295 — Gleyber Torres batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.294 — Michael Brantley batting against Jason Hammel.
0.294 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.293 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.292 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.290 — Cody Bellinger batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290 — Aaron Judge batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.288 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.287 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Lance Lynn.
0.287 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jason Hammel.
0.286 — Buster Posey batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285 — James McCann batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.284 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Boyd.
0.284 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jason Hammel.
0.283 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.282 — Victor Martinez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.279 — Jed Lowrie batting against Sonny Gray.

Torreyes collected 17 hits and one walk. All his averages are fairly highly regressed, but he still does well because he walks so little with a decently high batting average. Graveman allowed 41 hits in 28 1/3 innings this year. Torreyes likely won’t start, but it’s a good day to pick a Yankees hitter. Gleyber Torres owns an eight-game hit streak during which he’s hitting .407.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.295, 0.739 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Boyd.
0.288, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.325, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.324, 0.727 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Harvey.
0.284, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Boyd.
0.317, 0.722 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.294, 0.722 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.275, 0.712 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.288, 0.711 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.294, 0.710 — Michael Brantley batting against Jason Hammel.
0.302, 0.710 — Starlin Castro batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.286, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.271, 0.707 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.287, 0.705 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Lance Lynn.
0.295, 0.702 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.272, 0.700 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.287, 0.698 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jason Hammel.
0.299, 0.698 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.261, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.283, 0.697 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.266, 0.695 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.279, 0.693 — Jed Lowrie batting against Sonny Gray.
0.284, 0.692 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jason Hammel.
0.269, 0.691 — Corey Dickerson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.267, 0.688 — Freddie Freeman batting against Daniel Straily.

Wilson Ramos makes this list, and he currently holds the longest hit streak in the majors, 16 games. He’s 25 for 62 with five walks during the streak.

Dee Gordon once against comes out at the top of the list. He beats Altuve due to the opposing pitcher. Castellanos and Kemp are the consensus 1-2, however.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 22, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Cain
0.331 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Cain
0.329 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Cain
0.323 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Norris
0.316 — Avisail Garcia batting against Nikolas Turley
0.316 — Justin Turner batting against Steven Matz
0.309 — Tyler Flowers batting against Matt Cain
0.308 — Ben Gamel batting against Daniel Norris
0.303 — Matt Adams batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Starlin Castro batting against Jesse Chavez
0.301 — Didi Gregorius batting against Jesse Chavez

You could go to the Matts for a double down today, with Matt Kemp and Matt Adams of the Braves against Matt Cain. It’s fairly amazing that Cain’s ERA is only 4.99 given the opposition owns a .309/.372/.455 slash line against him. Most of the power against him came with the bases empty, which helps. Jean Segura returned from the disabled list Wednesday night and got a hit, and Gamel is the current hit streak leader with 13.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.323, 0.754 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Norris.
0.331, 0.750 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Cain.
0.329, 0.747 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Cain.
0.316, 0.746 — Justin Turner batting against Steven Matz.
0.333, 0.743 — Matt Kemp batting against Matt Cain.
0.295, 0.738 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.284, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.316, 0.733 — Avisail Garcia batting against Nikolas Turley.
0.295, 0.730 — Jose Ramirez batting against Wade Miley.
0.301, 0.729 — Starlin Castro batting against Jesse Chavez.

Segura pops to the the top of the list. Kemp’s teammates, Phillips and Iciarte move ahead of Kemp as they own better three-year weighted hit averages, while Kemp has the higher 2017 number. So Phillips is the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Jett Bandy 25
Daniel Robertson 24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Aaron Hill 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Matthew Szczur 20
Conor Gillaspie 19
Mitch Moreland 18
Franchy Cordero 17
Matt Wieters 17
Eric Thames 16
Greg Garcia 16
Greg Bird 15
Billy Hamilton 15
C.J. Cron 15
Rio Ruiz 15
Joey Rickard 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Jorge Polanco 14
Daniel Nava 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Peter Kozma 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Chris Carter 12
Leonys Martin 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Jose Bautista 12
Craig Gentry 12
Allen Cordoba 11
Starling Marte 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Michael Conforto 11
Stuart Turner 11
Matt Olson 11
Orlando Calixte 11
Danny Valencia 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Tyler Collins 10
Stephen Vogt 10
Russell Martin 10
Luke Maile 10
Ryan Braun 10
Boog Powell 10
Alex Gordon 10
Brett Gardner 10
Dee Gordon 10
Chris Taylor 10
J.T. Riddle 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Jose Iglesias 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Yandy Diaz 10

Good luck!

June 17, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain
0.338 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello
0.327 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain
0.318 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Martin Perez
0.316 — David Peralta batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.311 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marcus Stroman
0.311 — Justin Turner batting against Asher Wojciechowski
0.311 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Cain
0.305 — Trey Mancini batting against Adam Wainwright
0.304 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez

Note that there is a double header between the Indians and Twins on Saturday. That makes choosing a player from one of those games difficult, since it is sometimes tough to know who is going to rest in one of the games. The Rockies against Matt Cain should provide a target rich environment for players advancing their hit streaks. Opponents hit for a high batting average against Cain over the last three seasons, although Cain pitched well at Coors Field in that time.

Ben Gamel, in his first full year, is hitting for a high average and getting on base. This is an equal weighting of one-year and weighted three-year hit averages, so Gamel makes this list but not the Neural Network. Keep you eye on the Mariners rightfielder.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.342, 0.767 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Cain.
0.338, 0.758 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.327, 0.755 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Cain.
0.297, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Seth Lugo.
0.316, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.311, 0.737 — Justin Turner batting against Asher Wojciechowski.
0.294, 0.733 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.295, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jeff Locke.
0.302, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against David Paulino.
0.302, 0.731 — Matt Kemp batting against Jeff Locke.

Kemp is day to day and did not play on Friday. Blackmon is the consensus pick, with the two system agreeing on the top three batters. Blackmon is 6 for 20 against Cain in his career with only three strikeouts.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Carlos Gonzalez 26
Jeff Mathis 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Jett Bandy 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Michael Saunders 20
Conor Gillaspie 19
Omar Narvaez 19
Todd Frazier 18
Zack Cozart 17
Darwin Barney 17
Brandon Belt 16
Greg Bird 15
Odubel Herrera 15
Cristhian Adames 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Chris Coghlan 13
Chase D'Arnaud 13
Ehire Adrianza 12
Jose Lobaton 12
Kevin Pillar 12
Leonys Martin 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Orlando Calixte 11
Logan Forsythe 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Deven Marrero 11
Craig Gentry 11
Cliff Pennington 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Starling Marte 11
Matt Olson 11
Peter Kozma 11
Boog Powell 10
Nelson Cruz 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Stuart Turner 10
Tyler Collins 10
Daniel Robertson 10
Jared Hoying 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Ryan Braun 10
Hanley Ramirez 10
Yandy Diaz 10

So if Yandy Diaz married Jett Bandy he’d be Yandy Bandy!

Good luck!

June 7, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello
0.323 — Matt Kemp batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.319 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rick Porcello
0.312 — Buster Posey batting against Jimmy Nelson
0.312 — Chris Owings batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Brandon Drury batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.310 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.305 — Aaron Judge batting against Rick Porcello

Batters are hitting .307 against Porcello with a .337 OBP. That means a high percentage of his BFP end in a hit. The Yankees have a few players with high hit averages as well, and it’s nice to see Aaron Judge start to work his way into these discussions.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.304, 0.741 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.319, 0.735 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.323, 0.735 — Matt Kemp batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.284, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Jason Vargas.
0.328, 0.733 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello.
0.311, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.312, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.272, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.295, 0.730 — Xander Bogaerts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.310, 0.730 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jerad Eickhoff.

Charlie Blackmon at home against Trevor Bauer looks like a pretty good pick. Matt Kemp and David Peralta tie for the consensus pick. I’m very impressed that Murphy makes the top ten as he faces Kershaw this afternoon.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Christopher Herrmann 31
Michael Freeman 29
Trevor Plouffe 26
Logan Forsythe 25
Raul Mondesi 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Kyle Higashioka 20
Conor Gillaspie 19
Jose Reyes 18
Matthew Szczur 15
Greg Bird 15
Franklin Gutierrez 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Yangervis Solarte 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Jeff Mathis 13
J.J. Hardy 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Nolan Fontana 12
Leonys Martin 12
Kurt Suzuki 12
Patrick Kivlehan 12
Michael Martinez 12
David Peralta 11
Jesus Sucre 11
Craig Gentry 11
Rio Ruiz 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Jose Peraza 11
Starling Marte 11
Gary Sanchez 11
Gregory Polanco 11
Christian Yelich 11
Lorenzo Cain 10
Tyler Collins 10
Stuart Turner 10
Darwin Barney 10
Ryan Schimpf 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Tyler Moore 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Kennys Vargas 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Ryan Braun 10
Peter Kozma 10

Good luck!

June 5, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Warning: My source for probables has Zach Eflin pitching for the Phillies today. He was sent down May 29th. I will update if I can resolve the issue.

Update: Re-ran with Nick Pivetta instead of Zach Eflin.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu
0.325 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon
0.314 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu
0.308 — Matt Kemp batting against Nick Pivetta
0.306 — Odubel Herrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.301 — Aaron Altherr batting against Bartolo Colon
0.300 — Ben Lively batting against Bartolo Colon
0.298 — The rest of the Phillies against Bartolo Colon

If you want a hit, pretty much pick anyone from the Phillies. There is a very limited schedule this Monday, which is why you see an unusual list of players.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.763 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.337, 0.733 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.308, 0.729 — Matt Kemp batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.314, 0.723 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.292, 0.723 — Dee Gordon batting against Eddie Butler.
0.325, 0.719 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.289, 0.718 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eddie Butler.
0.296, 0.718 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Eddie Butler.
0.291, 0.717 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.250, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Ian Kennedy.

Daniel Murphy rising to the top of the pack on a day with a limited schedule is no surprise. Hernandez and Murphy are tied for the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Christopher Herrmann 28
Ben Zobrist 27
Raul Mondesi 23
Trevor Plouffe 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Kyle Higashioka 20
Scooter Gennett 19
Conor Gillaspie 19
Jose Reyes 18
Bryce Harper 17
Logan Forsythe 17
Asdrubal Cabrera 17
Greg Bird 15
Jett Bandy 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Alex Bregman 14
Jeff Mathis 13
Chris Owings 13
Guillermo Heredia 13
Adam Jones 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Corey Seager 13
Michael Martinez 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Leonys Martin 12
Dexter Fowler 12
Jared W. Hoying 12
Danny Ortiz 11
Robbie Grossman 11
Matt Carpenter 11
Craig Gentry 11
Matthew Szczur 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Starling Marte 11
Mark Canha 11
Robinson Cano 10
Jose Bautista 10
Alcides Escobar 10
Kennys Vargas 10
Kris Bryant 10
Yangervis Solarte 10
Yandy Diaz 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Ryan Braun 10
Franklin Gutierrez 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Ryan Schimpf 10
Tyler Collins 10
Stuart Turner 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Lonnie Chisenhall 10

Good luck!

April 11, 2017

Day of the DL

Buster Posey goes to the seven day concussion disabled list after his beaning on Monday. Posey was hot, with a .333/.481/.571 slash line.

The Braves placed Matt Kemp on the 10-day DL.

Kemp hasn’t played since Friday. He took batting practice Sunday and though the injury isn’t believed to be serious, he went to the DL as a precaution.

He was off to a fast start, going 8-for-16 with four doubles and two homers in the first week of the season.

The 10 day DL gives a player a chance to heal a minor injury without putting the club at a disadvantage.

Jean Segura also goes on the DL with a bad hamstring:

The 27-year-old started off this season by hitting .313 (10-for-32) from the leadoff spot, with one homer, three RBIs, six runs and three stolen bases through Seattle’s first eight games.

December 18, 2014

Kemp Deal a Go

It appears the Matt Kemp deal will go through:

The blockbuster deal between the San Diego Padres and Dodgers involving outfielder Matt Kemp has been agreed upon, sources told ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne.

The deal was jeopardized after Kemp’s physical revealed arthritis in both hips. The Dodgers were upset that Kemp’s medical information leaked publicly, sources told Shelburne.

No word if there were any modifications to the deal.

December 18, 2014

Screwing the Dodgers

The Matt Kemp deal between the Dodgers and Padres is on hold for unknown reasons. Kemp took his physical on Tuesday, and the speculation is the Padres found something. However:

As baseball waits on the Padres’ next move, Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan noted Wednesday that new Padres GM A.J. Preller comes from the Rangers organization, and that is significant “because Texas, where Preller grew his executive chops, has in the past used medical concerns as a way to rework deals at the last minute.”

It could also be the Wil Myers deal changed the Padres thinking. Maybe they don’t need Myers and Kemp. If the Kemp deal falls apart, so does the Dodgers deal with the Phillies for Jimmy Rollins. The Padres and Dodgers, after all, compete in the same division. If SD can use a medical excuse to nix the trade and put the Dodgers in a weakened position, might they do that? It would certainly be an evil plan.

Of course, Ken Rosenthal indicates the Padres do want Kemp, so in fact San Diego likely just wants a little more from the Dodgers.

Update: The latest news is Kemp has arthritic hips.

December 11, 2014

Night of the Dodgers

The Dodgers were busy Wednesday night, trading Matt Kemp to the Padres and acquiring Howie Kendrick from the Angels.

The official spoke only on the condition of anonymity since the trade has yet to be announced. The official announcement has been delayed because the Commissioner’s office must approve the trade, and the players must pass their physicals.

Kemp and catcher Tim Federowicz will be sent to the Padres in a package deal for catcher Yasmani Grandal, pitcher Joe Wieland and at least one prospect.

Both Grandal and Wieland posted great minor league numbers, but there is the chance Grandal’s numbers came from juicing. He has not lived up to those stats at the major league level. Wieland’s strength as a pitcher is great control.

The Padres are hoping that Kemp is healthy again, because unless the Dodgers are picking up part of his contract, he needs to be a three WAR player to justify the expense.

The Kendrick deal:

In exchange, the Angels receive left-handed starter Andrew Heaney, acquired earlier in the day by the Dodgers from the Miami Marlins for second baseman Dee Gordon and starter Dan Haren.

Dan Haren may retire rather than report to the Marlins. Mr. Heaney pitched well at all levels of the minor leagues, with great numbers in all three-true outcome categories.

So the Dodgers have a new middle infield of Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick. They have a potentially great hitting catcher in Grandal and someone who should be able to help the pitching staff this season in Wieland. The also helped clear the logjam in the outfield. Given the veteran status of Rollins and Kendrick, they should not be seen as long term solutions to the positions. The mandate appears to be win this year. We’ll see how the Dodgers continue to make moves throughout the season. They have the money to adjust quickly to set backs.

I’m not sure the Padres actually helped themselves. Federowicz hit well in the minors, but not so far in the majors. His four year stint in Albuquerque may have inflated his numbers. They’ve made a big bet on Matt Kemp.

Update: The Dodgers also agreed to a four year, $48 million contract with Brandon McCarthy:

You’ve read about McCarthy enough, and we’ve written about McCarthy enough, that we probably don’t need to go into great detail again. He’s always been an interesting pitcher, but 2014 saw him reach a new level of intrigue. The Dodgers, it must always be understood, can afford to take some of these risks, on account of the money that funds them, yet this is a deal that would look pretty good on a number of payrolls. If you believe even a little bit in the power of xFIP, there’s more to McCarthy than meets the eye.

For the first time, McCarthy reached 200 innings. For the first time, McCarthy exceeded 25 starts. For the first time, McCarthy’s fastball averaged about 93 miles per hour, versus his previous 90 – 91. Odds are, these things are related. As McCarthy found a training program that works for him, he made himself stronger and more able to withstand the rigors of the long season. With added strength, McCarthy’s velocity picked up. And with added strength, McCarthy kept from wearing down, avoiding previously chronic shoulder weakness. Enough things changed for him that it’s by no means clear McCarthy will just go back to being what he had been as a decent No. 4.

Of course, it could also be a one-year fluke. The article does point out, however, that the Dodgers now have four of the top 14 pitchers in xFIP from 2014.

October 15, 2014 October 5, 2014

Smoking Kemp

The Cardinals managed just two hits off Zack Greinke for seven innings. J.P. Howell started the eighth, and immediately gave up a single and home run to tie the game at two, Matt Carpenter supplying the blast. This time, however, there was no huge rally, and Matt Kemp turned things back the Dodgers way as he homers in the bottom of the inning, and the Dodgers earn a split at home with a 3-2 win.

Kemp changed everything when his bat crashed into a 2-1 pitch by Cardinals reliever Pat Neshek. The stadium roared as the ball soared high into the Los Angeles sky and into the seats by the left-field foul pole.

Kemp had waited long for this moment. Until this series, he hadn’t played in a postseason game in five years. Last year, he was sidelined with a fractured ankle that required a major operation over the winter.

“Just blessed, man,” Kemp said. “It’s been a grind the last two years.”

He hit 17 of his 25 regular-season home runs after the All-Star break, prompting catcher A.J. Ellis to call him the most valuable player of the second half of the season.

Kemp was back to his star status after the break, with 17 doubles and a triple for 35 extra-base hits in 64 games. He also posted a .365 OBP as the Dodgers cruised to the division championship.

At least we have one series that won’t be a sweep!