It will be difficult for the Indians to blow a lead tonight, as they are up 17-0 on the Reds in the bottom of the fourth inning. Their infield of Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez combined for four home runs so far, two off the bat of Ramirez. Ramirez’s 27 home runs are just two behind his total of 29 in 2017, and he’s now slugging .609. He has a shot at a 50 doubles, 50 home run season.
In the bottom of the fifth inning, Todd Frazier was at third with one out. Brett Gardner hit a fly ball to shallow centerfield. Jason Kipnis, converted second baseman caught the ball, and to the amazement of all Todd Frazier took off for the plate. He easily beat the throw, and the Yankees get back a run as they lead 6-3. Good scouting by the Yankees on Kipnis’s arm.
Update: The Yankees get another run back in the bottom of the sixth inning on a solo home run by Gary Sanchez.
Jason Kipnis will be away from the Indians longer than expected:
Already ruled out for opening day, Jason Kipnis, the Indians’ starting second baseman, is expected to miss at least the first two weeks of the regular season while dealing with nagging inflammation in his throwing shoulder.
A second opinion on Kipnis’ injured right shoulder determined an additional four to five weeks of recovery time is necessary, manager Terry Francona revealed Sunday.
Kipnis is a tough player to lose, since there are a number of excellent second basemen in the league. Not having a star at that position puts a team in a hole these days.
Jason Kipnis is providing the offense for Cleveland in game six. After doubling in the fourth and scoring the Indians first run, he homers with two out in the fifth for the second Indians run. The Cubs now lead 7-2 at the end of five innings.
The Cubs don’t score in the second, and Jason Kipnis leads off the Indians third inning with a double into the rightfield corner. The Indians are set up for another run.
Update: Francisco Lindor continues his hot hitting, driving a liner to right-center for an RBI single. The Indians lead the Cubs 3-1.
Update: A strikeout and a double play end the inning, but the Indians might have scored enough to win the game!
Jason Kipnis doubles with one out in the bottom of the sixth to break up Jake Arrieta‘s no-hit bid. Kipnis hustled all the way to get the double, as Jason Heyward, in as a defensive replacement, did a great job of cutting off the ball in the gap. The Cubs still lead the Indians 5-0.
Update: Kipnis advances to third on a ground out, then scores on a wild pitch. The Indians are on the board as the Cubs lead 5-1.
Update: Mike Napoli singles to left, and Arrieta is done. Mike Montgomery comes in to pitch for the Cubs.
Update: Montgomery gets a comebacker to end the inning. The Cubs have three inning to defend their lead and even the series.
Before Jason Kipnis went to the on-deck circle in the bottom of the sixth, Indians manager Terry Fancona gave Kipnis’s bat a kiss. Kipnis drew a one-out walk, and that brought up Fancisco Lindor. He homers for the first runs of the game as Cleveland takes a 2-0 lead over Toronto. Lindor’s power is usually made up of doubles and triples, but he did hit 15 homers during the regular season.
Rick Porcello leaves the game with one out in the fifth. Roberto Perez led off with a single, then moved to second on a surprise tag on a Carlos Santana deep fly to left. Drew Pomeranz comes on and gives up an RBI single to Jason Kipnis, and the Indians lead 5-3. Perez and Kipnis each have two hits, each with a a single and a home run.
Major League second basemen posted a .771 OPS in 2016, the highest in the 43 seasons for which the Day by Day Database has position data. They beat out the 1999 season by seven points. That year, it was a great OBP of .350 that put that group of second basemen at the top. In 2016, it was slugging that moved this group to the top. Six second basemen with at least 400 PA at the position slugged .500 or better (only stats as a second baseman count), led by Daniel Murphy at .600. The interesting thing to me is that all those slugging second basemen did little to help their teams to the playoffs.
A sign of a good team is strength up the middle. A slugging second baseman should be a good sign of that. Aprat from Murphy, Rougned Odor of the Rangers ranked sixth in slugging at .502, and Jason Kipnis of the Indians ranked tenth at .476. The Astros with Jose Altuve and Mariners with Robinson Cano just missed. The Twins finished with the worst winning percentage in the majors despite Brian Dozier collecting 79 extra base hits as a second baseman.
Keep your eye on the second basemen in the playoffs.
MLB second basemen may be having their greatest season ever. It’s very likely that second basemen will win the batting title in each league, and two may even win MVPs. They are hitting for average, hitting for all kinds of power, and overall are an offensive force like no other group of second basemen in this century:
| Season | BA | OBP | Slug | OPS |
| 2016 | 0.278 | 0.335 | 0.436 | 0.771 |
| 2015 | 0.264 | 0.318 | 0.393 | 0.711 |
| 2014 | 0.256 | 0.313 | 0.373 | 0.686 |
| 2013 | 0.263 | 0.323 | 0.387 | 0.710 |
| 2012 | 0.257 | 0.318 | 0.383 | 0.701 |
| 2011 | 0.260 | 0.320 | 0.389 | 0.709 |
| 2010 | 0.265 | 0.330 | 0.389 | 0.719 |
| 2009 | 0.271 | 0.336 | 0.416 | 0.752 |
| 2008 | 0.276 | 0.338 | 0.409 | 0.747 |
| 2007 | 0.277 | 0.340 | 0.417 | 0.757 |
| 2006 | 0.276 | 0.334 | 0.410 | 0.744 |
| 2005 | 0.274 | 0.334 | 0.413 | 0.747 |
| 2004 | 0.271 | 0.332 | 0.412 | 0.744 |
| 2003 | 0.272 | 0.334 | 0.405 | 0.739 |
| 2002 | 0.267 | 0.327 | 0.390 | 0.717 |
| 2001 | 0.271 | 0.335 | 0.406 | 0.741 |
There have been seasons with higher OBPs, but none with a higher slugging percentage. The combination of the two this season in unmatched.
Among the eight fielding positions this season, only first basemen have a higher OBP (.338), and fourth in slugging behind first basemen, third basemen, and rightfielders. In other words, second basemen have shifted on the defensive spectrum offensively past leftfielders and centerfielders.
Will it last? I suspect a number of these great second base hitters will move to other positions to save their bats. We already see that a bit with Daniel Murphy, who will sometimes play first. Until that happens, we should enjoy a great era of second basemen.
Jason Kipnis talks about being consistent at the plate by using pitching adjustments against his oppontents:
Kipnis secured the attention of catcher Chris Gimenez as he began to explain the changes in his offensive approach this season. Last year, Kipnis batted .303 with 43 doubles, but only nine home runs.
“I just set up all of the pitchers in the league, just working on [hitting pitches] away,” Kipnis said. “So, I used all of their adjustments to my advantage. Now, it’s like, ‘OK, everybody’s going to be pitching me in this year, so let’s turn and burn and hit more home runs.'”
Gimenez interjected with a light-hearted recommendation.
“You might not want to say that to the media, though,” he said, “because now [other teams] are going to read it and pitch you away.”
Kipnis didn’t seem concerned.
“Then I go right back to it and the average goes up. Here come the doubles,” he said, laughing. “I use your guys’ adjustments to my advantage and set up all of you over-thinkers.”
I’ve argued batters should do something like this when a shift occurs, adjust the swing to take advantage of the holes. It’s good to see Kipnis hasn’t fallen into the trap of forcing himself to be a certain type of hitter. He posted a 4.6 bWAR last season, and so far has a 3.2 WAR with six weeks left in the year. The adjustments and trade offs are keeping him consistent.
The Tigers played their 108th game of the season on Thursday, and with that Miguel Cabrera no longer qualifies for the batting title. At the 108 game level, he need 335 PA to qualify, and he only has 333. Cabrera is expected back in another week to ten days, which means he will still have time to qualify for the batting championship. With his large lead in the race he could still easily win. He will need to average four PA over 45 games to get to the required 502 PA minimum for a batting title, or keep his average high enough that the few PA he falls short don’t lower his average enough to take him out of the race.
Meanwhile, Prince Fielder takes over the top spot at .327, with Jason Kipnis right on his heels at .326. Kipnis, however, is out with a shoulder injury that is expected to sideline him for two or three weeks. If the injury doesn’t hurt Kipnis’s swing on his return, that could help Jason win the race. He should easily qualify for the batting title, and a smaller number of plate appearances in the seasons makes the probability of an outlier batting average higher.
Nelson Cruz ranks third at .324. Cruz gets a boost from his home run power. Balls that leave the yard can’t be turned into outs by fielders. Eric Hosmer is right on Cruz’s tail at .320, and Cabrera’s teammate Jose Iglesias rounds out the top five at .314.
I do like Fielder’s chances for the batting title. He is in the sweet spot, with the lowest single season strikeout rate of his career, and his highest BABIP since his cup of coffee in 2005. He’s putting more balls in play this season, and more of those balls are finding holes. He slumped in July, but seems to have recovered with a 7 for 21 in August. We’ll see if anyone can catch Cabrera, or if Cabrera can play enough to be catchable.
The batting races in both the American and National Leagues are shaping up to be quite exciting. Each is at least a three-way race. In the NL Dee Gordon and Paul Goldschmidt virtually tied at .356, with Bryce Harper not too far back at .345. In the AL Former teammates Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder rank first and third respectively, with Jason Kipnis sandwiched in between. The three are only six points apart at .346, .345, and .340.
Both races have the added possibility of triple crowns. Harper does not lead in home runs or RBI, but he isn’t that far from the lead in those categories either. Cabrera leads in RBI, but is six home runs off the AL lead in that category. He capable of a big surge however.
Batting average is not a great statistic in general, but I do like it for awarding batting titles. The purpose of the game is to hit. If OBP were the batting title statistic, I’m afraid it would encourage too many walks. Batting average awards walks by not preventing at bats from rising, but only hits can force it higher. It’s the right balance.
The Indians locked up Jason Kipnis with a six-year contract:
The contract buys out Kipnis’ final pre-arbitration year, three arbitration years and two free agent years. The option covers a third free agent year. The deal is almost identical to the six-year, $52 million extension the Cardinals gave second baseman Matt Carpenter last month. The two have the same amount of service time, but Kipnis is 17 months younger.
I like this contract, but I will point out something unusual. Kipnis produced 10.9 bWAR and 8.4 fWAR in 337 major league games through the 2013 season. Average those two values and divide by two, and it looks like Jason is worth about 4.8 WAR a season. In today’s free agent market, that would yield close to $30 million a year. Kipnis can earn his keep with two more years like his last two seasons.
Jason Kipnis demonstrates how to keep your eye on the ball with his picture perfect swing. Photo: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
What I find unusual is that this type of extension usually goes to a young player. While Kipnis is only in his third full season, he’s 27 years old, at the peak of prime. So the Indians are paying for three seasons once he hits his decline phase. I suspect they felt he was going to get so much money in arbitration that it was worth it to take the extra three years, rather than just negotiating with him every year.
This of course, begs the question, why did Kipnis take so long to get to the majors? There seemed to be no interest in him out of high school. He went to college, and was drafted by the Padres in 2008, but decided to stay in college. He was not signed by the Indians until he was 22. His minor league numbers were outstanding, but he was always old for his level. He came to the majors as a fully formed player, and while he is very good, there is no upside to his career at this point.
This is a market inefficiency that some teams exploit. If you’re lucky enough to acquire a 20-year-old who posts four WAR or higher, the team is going to pay through the nose eventually to keep him through his prime. If you can find that player in his mid-20s, however, the team can capture that prime at relatively low cost. The Indians took advantage of that.
The Pirates put their two-game lead in the NL Central to the test as they send Francisco Liriano against Jeff Samardzija if Chicago in a late afternoon game. Lirano only averaged six innings in his ten starts, but they are effective innings as his high strikeout rate leads to a low 2.23 ERA. Maybe the innings limit will keep him healthy for the rest of the season. Samardzija has problems at home this season, where the opposition his .273 against him versus .197 on the road.
Detroit opens a four-game series in Cleveland as the Tigers lead the Indians by 1 1/2 games in the AL Central. Jim Leyland gave Miguel Cabrera his first day off this season on Thursday. He was in a tiny slump, and the Tigers no doubt want him fresh for these games. Meanwhile, Jason Kipnis continued his hot June into July.
Finally, the Rockies go into Phoenix to take on the Diamondbacks, Colorado trailing Arizona by 2 1/2 games in the NL West. The three game series starts with Jorge de al Rosa taking on Tyler Skaggs. Jorge pitched well against Arizona this year, 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts. He only struck out 10 in 17 1/3 innings, but held Arizona to 15 hits. Skaggs struck out 17 in 16 2/3 innings this year, but allowed four home runs for a 5.40 ERA.
Enjoy!
Jason Kipnis knocks out one of 12 doubles he collected in the month of June. Photo: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
The offensive player of the month for June 2013 turned out to be an easy choice. The same three players, Jason Kipnis, Miguel Cabrera, and Yasiel Puig finished at the top of the OBP leader board and the slugging percentage leader board. The three were close in slugging, but Kipnis led by a wide margin in OBP. Combine that with his high RBI total, stealing 9 of 10 bases, and doing it all as a second, baseman, Jason Kipnis is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for June 2013.
Unfortunately, picking a pitcher is not that easy. Jeff Locke and Jose Fernandez tied for the lead in ERA at 1.67, each allowing six earned runs in 32 1/3 innings. Fernandez posted better three-true outcome rates (he did not allow a home run) so that pushes him ahead in my estimation. Right behind them, however is Bartolo Colon, with a 5-0 record in five starts and a 1.75 ERA. He pitched more innings with a lower walk rate that the two leaders, but did not strike out many batters. It looks like he got plenty of help from the defense.
Matt Harvey prepares to deliver a pitch against the Nationals. Photo: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Among the strikeout per nine leaders, Matt Harvey stands out with an 11.08 mark, combined with 1.62 BB per 9 IP and 0.23 HR per 9 IP. That earned him a 2.31 ERA, with more innings than any of the three up top. Then there’s Kris Medlen, who walked just 0.53 batters per nine and posted a lower ERA than Harvey, 2.14.
In the end, I’m going with Harvey. It’s difficult to be great at each of the three-true outcomes, K, BB, and HR. Harvey accomplished that in June, and his lack of support from the Mets doesn’t knock down that accomplishment. Matt Harvey is the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for June 2013.
Jason Kipnis hit a single, double, and triple tonight as the Indians lead the Twins 6-3 in the bottom of the fifth. He should get at least one chance to hit the home run for the cycle. Kipnis came into the game with nine home runs on the season.
The Royals get seven strong innings from Ervin Santana, only to have the bullpen blow the game in the eighth. Cleveland came into the bottom of that inning trailing 3-1, but drove three runs across the plate, the last two on a double by Jason Kipnis. The Indians infielder is having an overall great year batting, but mostly comes up short with men on base and late in the game. Tonight, he got the big hit with both situations applying.
Jason Kipnis doubled twice so far Wednesday afternoon and scored twice as the Indians hold a 5-3 lead over the Phillies. Kipnis is one of seven players with at least 120 PA this year whose isolated power (Slugging – BA) is over .200, indicating high power, but have an OBP under .300. With the two for three today, Kipnis’s OBP stands at .293 and his isolate power at .214. Of his 29 hits, 15 have gone for extra bases.
Adam Dunn homered for the White Sox as they lead Minnesota in the fifth. He may join this group as he currently has a .246 OBP and an isolated power of .208. These players make a lot of outs, but when they hit, they hit the ball hard.
Update: Kipnis walked and homered later in the game, and that brings his OBP up to .303. That may drop him off the list, provided he doesn’t come up again. The Indians lead 10-3 in the bottom of the eighth.
Jason Kipnis hits a grand slam and Lonnie Chisenhall hits a two-run shot as the young players help drive the Indians to a 7-1 victory over the Twins. Lonnie is now 5 for 13 in four games with two home runs. He has an opportunity to make some noise with his bat, and so far he’s doing a good job.
Jason Kipnis collected three hits and scored twice, the second time the go-ahead run as the Indians beat the Tigers 4-2. The game came down to the bullpens as the Indians relievers held the fort, not allowing a run in 2 2/3 innings, while Phil Coke gave up two runs in the eighth for the loss.
Cleveland now holds a five game lead over last season’s division champions, as the Tigers fall three games under .500.
I wonder how well the Indians would have played down the stretch if Jason Kipnis stayed healthy. He went 3 for 5 on Saturday afternoon, missing the cycle by a home run. He’s posting a .299/.352/.577 slash line in a bit over 100 PA. The Indians could have used the offense. They got it today as they beat the Twins 10-4.
After the pitchers dominated the first six innings of the Indians/Rangers game Saturday night, the offense took over for the final third of the game. Neither team scored until the seventh, then all best were off as the team combined for 12 runs and a 7-5 Cleveland victory.
The Indiand took a 3-0 lead, only to allow Texas four runs in the bottom of the seventh. They got all those back in the ninth, however, with Jason Kipnis driving home the ultimate winning run with at two-run homer, his fifth in just 47 at bats. He’s looking like a power-hitting second baseman, as seven of his 12 hits resulted in extra bases, and he’s struck out 17 times to boot.
The Diamondbacks Cody Ransom as the replacement for Stephen Drew. He was hitting great at Reno.
Kyle Blanks returns to the Padres as they demote Anthony Rizzo. Kyle was smashing the ball at Tucson.
The Indians called up Jason Kipnis. He’s not a great power hitter, but he does hit a decent amount of double, triples and home runs.