The Yankees don’t get much time to think about facing elimination as the Rangers send C.J. Wilson against CC Sabathia at 4:07 PM EDT in game five of the ALCS. Wilson handled his first playoff experience well so far, posting two quality starts. He’s maintained control (four walks in 13 1/3 innings), struck out batters (eleven so far), and only allowed one home run. We’ll see if the Yankees learned anything from facing him once in this series. Note that Wilson pitched well on the road this season, with a 2.91 ERA away from Texas versus a 3.70 mark at home. He reduced his BA and slug% allowed away from Texas, but posted the same .311 OBP. Texas, of course, has yet to lose on the road in the post-season.
Wilson makes it tough to attack his first pitch. The following graph shows the frequency of Wilson’s 0-0 pitches in the 2010 post season to right-handed batters:
He likes to either put the pitch down the middle or hit the outside corner. So if a batter is going to swing early, he might get a phat pitch, or he might get one he fouls off. By moving in and out, it’s tough for hitters to pick up a pattern.
Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the heat chart.
The difference between CC Sabathia this post-season and last is wildness. In 2009, he walked nine batters in 36 1/3 innings, about one every four innings. With seven walks in ten innings this season, he’s closer to one every inning. I’m not sure I buy the “too strong” argument. The Yankees should have been aware of that and worked CC so that wouldn’t be the case. He simply had an off-game to start the ALCS, and we’ll see if he can get his mechanics back for this game. To give credit where credit is due, this Texas offense is playing very well, and sometimes the offense just does everything right.
Sabathia did do an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park at home this year, so maybe he can shutdown the Texas power. If not, the Rangers will become the 28th team to reach the World Series, leaving Seattle and the Washington/Montreal franchises as the only ones not to appear in the fall classic.
The Giants try to take a 3-1 lead in the NLCS as the Phillies send Joe Blanton to the mound against Madison Bumgarner. Blanton is a pitcher with great control who gives up a lot of home runs. Now, you might think that with great control, most of his home runs are solo shots, but the split is 16 with bases empty, 11 with men on. First batters in the inning tend to get to him as he allowed 14 home runs with none on/none out, and a .382 OBP. You might also think the high home run total comes from playing in Philadelphia, but opponents hit him for more power on the road.
Do any of you guys know the Madison?
Bumgarner is similar in that walks is a strength and home runs are a weakness, but both at lower levels than Blanton. Batters posted a .318 OBP/.414 slugging percentage against Madison, .332/.464 against Blanton. The Phillies have never faced Bumgarner before, so they’ll need to learn about him quickly. He’s a left that very effective against lefties, so he should be able to take out some of the Phillies big bats.
This is the one huge pitching mis-match in the series. The other six games feature great pitchers on both sides, but the Giants should have a huge advantage in this game. If they win, they only need to beat one of H2O, or, the Giants need to get one win from Lincecum, Sanchez and Cain. This is a must win game for San Francisco. While they showed they can compete with the Philly big three, all those games are 50-50 affairs. The Giants are equally likely to take two of three as lose two of three. The win today puts the odds clearly in their favor, and the pitching matchup favors them greatly. They can’t let this opportunity slip by.
Game four of the NLCS starts at 7:57 PM EDT.
Enjoy.
