For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.345, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.328, 0.721 — Ramon Laureano batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.322, 0.716 — Manny Machado batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.314, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.308, 0.704 — Jackson Merrill batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.307, 0.698 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.305, 0.697 — Freddy Fermin batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.304, 0.685 — Bryce Johnson batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.295, 0.674 — Gavin Sheets batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.291, 0.677 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
It’s pick your favorite Padres day as they travel to Colorado to face Freeland. Opponents are batting .355/.402/.548 against Freeland in Colorado, the highest home BA of any pitcher in the majors this season.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.345, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.328, 0.721 — Ramon Laureano batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.288, 0.718 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. David Peterson.
- 0.314, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.322, 0.716 — Manny Machado batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.275, 0.707 — Jacob Wilson batting at Jose Soriano.
- 0.283, 0.705 — Trea Turner batting at Valente Bellozo.
- 0.308, 0.704 — Jackson Merrill batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.307, 0.698 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.305, 0.697 — Freddy Fermin batting at Kyle Freeland.
Note that Arraez is just 1 for 3 against Freeland, meaning that he seldom starts against the lefty. We’ll see if that’s true today. Arraez and Laureano are the unanimous double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!