For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.341, 0.732 — Nico Hoerner batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.315, 0.733 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Andre Pallante.
- 0.304, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.304, 0.681 — Michael Busch batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.302, 0.679 — Pete Crow-Armstrong batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.301, 0.677 — Dansby Swanson batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.298, 0.678 — Kyle Tucker batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.298, 0.681 — Seiya Suzuki batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.290, 0.664 — Owen Caissie batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.290, 0.661 — Carson Kelly batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.290, 0.683 — Andy Pages batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
Note that the season is scheduled for twenty nine more days, so this is the last day you can start a streak and still have a chance at 57 games.
The Clue answer is Hoerner at Coors against Gordon. Tanner pitched 84 2/3 innings at the major league level with 6.2 K per 9 IP and 2.0 walks per nine IP. Batters put the ball in play against him, and so far that resulted in a .363 BABIP.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.315, 0.733 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Andre Pallante.
- 0.341, 0.732 — Nico Hoerner batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.304, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.250, 0.693 — Luis Arraez batting at Joe Ryan.
- 0.258, 0.691 — Trea Turner batting vs. Hurston Waldrep.
- 0.289, 0.690 — Noelvi Marte batting vs. Andre Pallante.
- 0.279, 0.690 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Mitch Keller.
- 0.270, 0.686 — Yandy Diaz batting at Bradley Lord.
- 0.274, 0.684 — Chandler Simpson batting at Bradley Lord.
- 0.290, 0.683 — Andy Pages batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
The NN is much less impressed with the Cubs hitters against Gordon. The two systems do agree that Andujar and Hoerner are the double down choices for today. They are the only two batters with somewhat high probabilities and an otherwise low probability day.
Keep an eye on Jeremiah Jackson of the Orioles. He came up to the majors on August 1st, and now owns a ten game hit streak. He strikes out a lot, but doesn’t walk and gets great results when he puts the all in play.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!