The 2021 series on team offense continues with the the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished tenth in the majors and sixth in the National League in 2020 with 4.88 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Dave Martinez order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Nationals numbers from 2017-2020. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.92
- Probable lineup: 4.70
- Worst lineup: 4.25
- Regressed lineup: 4.41
I believe this is the first National League team without a huge falloff in predicted scoring due to the loss of the designated hitter. The best lineup, with the pitcher batting eighth and Carter Kieboom ninth, projects to outscore the 2020 squad.
The projected order agrees with the LAT in terms of thirds. The top three, middle three, and bottom three batters are pretty much the same, just in slightly different orders. For example, the LAT uses Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles at the top of the order, while the projected lineup has Robles, Soto, Turner 1-2-3.
There’s been a lot of hype in San Diego this season, but the default lineup of both clubs projects to 4.70 runs. If the pitching stays healthy, Washington should score enough runs to put the team in playoff contention. If Kieboom goes Kaboom, they might win the NL East.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series: