Tag Archives: Roger Maris

October 6, 2022

Best Batter Today

The final season ends with Aaron Judge of the Yankees on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He did not play Wednesday after a long stretch that helped him break Roger Maris‘s single season AL home run record. Judge finished with 131 RBI, leading in that category as well, but fell five points short of the batting title and the triple crown.

Second place belongs to Jose Altuve of the Astros, who also sat on Wednesday. His teammate, Yordan Alvarez did play in the 3-2 win over the Phillies and went two for three for fifth place.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers finished in third place as he went three for four with a double and a home run in a 6-1 win over the Rockies. That’s not enough to catch fourth place Jeff McNeil of the Mets for the NL batting title, as McNeil did not start for the Mets. Freeman did lead the NL in hits, doubles, and OBP.

Ji-Man Choi of the Rays posted the best game score of the day, a 77. He goes three for four with walk, a double and a home run in a 6-3 Boston win. Choi is strictly a platoon player, but is now one that produces no power, finishing with a .388 slugging percentage in 2022. First base is a weak position offensively for Tampa Bay. Usually, it’s a position where offensive talent can be obtained inexpensively, but the Rays did not find a solution this season.

October 4, 2022

The Records

I have now seen the big home run records starting with Hank Aaron. I don’t know if the TV was on when Roger Maris hit his 61st home run, but at a year and half old I would not remember it. I did watch Aaron break Babe Ruth‘s career home run record. I saw Mark McGwire break Maris’s single season record. I saw Barry Bonds break both McGwire’s single season record and Aaron’s career record. Now I saw the ball off the bat of Judge break the AL record.

My family is very longed lived. I wonder who will be next?

September 28, 2022

There Goes the Judge

Aaron Judge of the Yankees connects on a 3-2 pitch in the top of the seventh inning to send a line drive into the leftfield stands for his sixty first home run of the season. That ties Roger Maris‘s single season American League record for home runs in a season. He had a very short celebration as his teammates came on the field to offer hugs, and that continued as he returned to the dugout. The Yankees lead the Blue Jays 5-3.

It’s been 61 years since Maris set the record. Roger Jr. and Judge’s mother sat together to watch it happened. Tim Mayza gave up the shot. We’ll see how high Judge can drive that number in the next week.

September 21, 2022

Games of the Day

The Blue Jays and Phillies finish their series with Kevin Gausman taking on Zack Wheeler. Gausman pitched better on the road this season, 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA. Wheeler comes into the game with a 3.07 ERA. He walked just 33 batters in 138 innings.

The home run watch is also now the triple crown watch as the Pirates send rookie Roansy Contreras against Luis Severino, but mostly against Aaron Judge. Judge is one home run away from tying Roger Maris for the AL single season home run record at 61. Judge also leads all three triple crown categories. Contreras owns a good 3.24 ERA, but he allowed ten home runs in 83 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Cardinals send Miles Mikolas against the Padres and Blake Snell, with all eyes on Albert Pujols, two home runs away from 700 for his career. Pujols is one for ten against Snell in his career with no home runs.

Enjoy!

September 20, 2022

Best Batter Today

Jose Altuve returns to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he goes two for four with a home run in a 4-0 win over the Rays to take back fifth place. His teammates, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman rank second and fourth respectively. Alvarez posted a one for four night, while Bregman singled and double in four trips. With Kyle Tucker 23rd, Houston owns a red-hot offense going into the post-season.

Aaron Judge and the Yankees enjoyed an off day Monday as Judge stays in first place. Judge needs two home runs to tie Roger Maris for the AL single season home run record, and is one point behind in the batting race that would give him a triple crown. The Yankees start a seven game home stand, and The Bronx should be shaking tonight.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers rounds out the top five in third place. Freeman drew a walk in four trips as the Los Angeles defeats Arizona 5-2.

Josh Naylor of the Guardians and Michael Toglia of the Rockies tie for best game score of the day at 76. Naylor doubled homered and walked in an 11-4 victory over Minnesota, and Cleveland now leads the AL Central by four games with fifteen games to play. Naylor, in his age 25 season, posts the best year of his career as his power came into bloom. Forty two of his ninety extra-base hits came this season.

Toglia picked up three hits and a walk, including two triples. The rookie is just 17 games into his MLB career, and ten of his fourteen hits produced extra bases. So far, he’s another power or nothing hitter, but in the minors he drew a good number of walks to give him a high OBP to go with his low batting average.

September 18, 2022

Here Comes the Judge

Aaron Judge of the Yankees just hit his second home run of the game to give New York a 10-4 lead at Milwaukee and bring his season total to 59 HR. The Yankees now own the top four single season AL home run slots, with Roger Maris at 61, Babe Ruth at 60 and 59, and now Judge at 59. The fans in Milwaukee were chanting MVP! MVP! as Judge rounded the bases. He’s now three for four in the game, making a potential triple crown a bit more likely.

Update: Judge comes up with two on and two out in the ninth and lines a two run double to the gap in leftfield. He’s now four for five on the day, batting .316.

Update: Milwaukee did not give up. Down 12-6 in the bottom of the ninth, they load the bases with none out and score two runs. The go down with the bases loaded for a 12-8 final.

Judge now owns a 0.76 probability of hitting at least 62 home runs.

August 24, 2022

Best Batter Today

Tuesday’s games brought a change to the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge of the Yankees posts a two for four with a home run in a 4-2 win over the Mets to eek by Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals. Goldschmidt goes two for nine with a walk as the they split a doubleheader with the Cubs, losing 2-0 then winning 13-3. Judge leads by 0.12 points.

Goldschmidt’s teammate, Nolan Arenado, goes three for seven on the day with a home run, walk, and hit by pitch. He does most of his damage in game two, three for four with the homer and hit by pitch for the highest game score of the day, a 74. He remains in fourth place.

Alex Bregman of the Astros posts a three for four with a home run in a 4-2 win over the Twins to keep third place. Justin Verlander threw six no-hit inning in that game and is now at the top of the Cy Young Tracker.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers goes three for five with his 41st double as Los Angeles pounds the Brewers 10-1. Tony Gonsolin picked up his 16th win, and he’s in the chase for the Cy Young Award in the NL.

Judge’s home run brought his pace up to 63 home runs for the season, with his most likely total 57. His probability of hitting at least 62 home runs this year rises to 0.08. Just for fun, I made a spreadsheet for Roger Maris’s run in 1961. On August 23rd of that year, the Yankees had played two more games and Maris had reached 50 home runs. His probability of hitting 61 at that point stood at 0.144. He would hit peak probability of 0.57 on 9/26, when he hit his 60th home run with four games to play. He would need all four to set the record.

August 2, 2022

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a two for four night with a double and a home run in a 7-2 win over the Mariners. The home run brings Judge’s total to 43 on the season. That puts him on a pace for 67 home runs, with his most likely total 57. The probability of him hitting at least 62 homers rises to 0.12, pretty close to one in eight. Roger Maris‘s record is very much in reach.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros as he draws a walk and hits a sacrifice fly in a 3-2 Boston win. Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers posts a three for five game with a double to climb into third place as Los Angeles beats the Giants 8-2. Austin Riley and the Braves have the day off, but Riley does get the big contract. He ranks fourth. Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals were also idle, and he ranks fifth.

The best game score of the day goes to Pete Alonso of the Mets, a 74. He collects two hits and two walks in five trips to the plate, including a double and a home run as the Mets beat the Nationals 7-3. Alonso now ranks seventh, less than five points out of fifth place.

July 3, 2022

Bombing to the Break

MLB Daily Dingers breaks down the top home run seasons leading into the All-Star break. What stands out to me looking at the list and the write ups is how the great majority of these players faded in the second half. It’s not that they didn’t wind up with a high total of home runs, it was that most came no where near a record.

In addition, lowering the mound in 1969 led to a first half boom in home runs, and that neither Reggie Jackson nor Harmon Killebrew capitalized on that indicates the pitchers adjusted in the second half. It’s also clear that if there had not been a work stoppage in 1994, that might have been the season Roger Maris‘s record fell, not 1998.

July 29, 2021

Ohtani Watch

Shohei Ohtani of the Angels homered in an 8-7 win over the Rockies Wednesday night. That gives him 37 home runs on the season. With home runs in two games in a row, Ohtani’s probability of breaking the AL single season home run record of Roger Maris rises to .0051. In other words, if we played the season from this point 10,000 times, we would expect Ohtani to reach at least 62 home runs in 51 of those season. That’s the highest the probability reached this season.

The actual probability may be higher than that, as I have been very conservative in adjusting his probability of a home run in a plate appearance. His expected total at the end of the season is now 51, but hitting 25 home runs over two months is a somewhat reasonable total. This is getting exciting.

July 7, 2021 June 28, 2021

Mr. June

Kyle Schwarber hit two more home runs so far tonight to bring his season total to 24 and his June total to 15. That ties him for the second most home run in any June. He’s the seventh player to reach that level. Sammy Sosa set the record with 20 in 1998. Others who hit 15 in May are Jim Thome, Pedro Guerrero, Roger Maris, Bob Johnson, and Babe Ruth. That’s very good company.

July 9, 2017

Judge and McGwire

I’ve been keeping track of Aaron Judge‘s chance of breaking Roger Maris‘s AL single season home run record on this Google Spreadsheet. For a while now, he’s been consistently below a 1 in 1000 chance. There is another record Judge is chasing, and I’ve added the rookie home run record to the sheet. Mark McGwire holds that record with 49 in 1987. Right now, the probability of Judge reaching 50 is about 0.3. Again, that seems about right to me. McGwire collected 33 home runs by the All-Star break in 1987, then hit 16 the rest of the season. The opposition does adjust. That record stood for 30 years, and held up through the steroid era. We’ll see if it falls in 2017.

December 29, 2016

In the Hall

Via BBTF, Ryan Fagan discusses his Hall of Fame ballot on the occasion of his first time voting. He makes a point that I’ve made before:

The second thing was this: It’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. It’s the reality of the “and Museum” part that surprised me a bit. The Gallery, where they have the plaques of enshrined players, managers and executives, is essentially completely separate from the museum. The truth is, Barry Bonds already is in the Hall of Fame. I took a picture of the ball he hit for his 756th home run, which was in a display case dedicated to Bonds’ achievement. Pete Rose already is discussed in the Hall of Fame. So is Shoeless Joe Jackson. Those guys don’t have plaques in the Gallery, of course, but they’re well-represented in the museum.

I used to make this point when someone brought up Roger Maris. If you visit the Hall of Fame, you learn about Roger Maris. Roger Clemens entered the Hall if 1986 when the game ball from his 20 strikeout game landed in Cooperstown. No one has been wiped from the museum. The arguments are about plaques.

The latest vote totals show Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines getting in, with Vladimir Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez also pulling plenty of support. The firewall that was keeping Clemens and Barry Bonds out appears to have broken as well, as both are pulling 70% so far.

I believe there are a number of factors for the Bonds/Clemens increase:

  • There is an unofficial ranking of the players in the Hall based on the number of years on the ballot. If you make it the first year, you’re the cream of the crop. If you make it on the last ballot, you were borderline. It’s quite possible the writers see a five-year penalty for Bonds and Clemens as being enough, especially since the standard story is that these two were Hall of Famers before that started using PEDs in the late 1990s.
  • Some writers are using the excuse of Bud Selig’s election as a reason to vote for Bonds and Clemens. However, they don’t appear to be voting for Sammy Sosa, so again, there appears to be an exception based on the belief that the player would or would not have been a Hall of Famer without PEDs. Manny Ramirez is pulling many more votes that Sosa, despite actually failing drug tests. They may see Manny as a great player who game to PEDs late.
  • The newer writers coming online grew up with Bonds and Clemens as their stars. They don’t have the Henry Aaron blind spot.

I don’t think Bonds and Clemens will make it this year, but expect them to break the 75% barrier in the next two years.

November 4, 2015

Siebern Passes

Norm Siebern died last Friday at age 82:

The Yankees had made such a habit of bolstering their roster by trading for Kansas City’s better players that the Athletics were often referred to as the Yankees’ farm team, and in 1959 the Yankees sent Siebern; the aging Bauer; Don Larsen, who had pitched a perfect game in the 1956 World Series but whose career was on the downslope; and the young first baseman Marv Throneberry (who would later become known for his goofy play with the expansion-era Mets) to Kansas City for Maris, then just 25, and two inconsequential players — first baseman Kent Hadley, who didn’t last the 1960 season, and infielder Joe DeMaestri, whose major league career ended in 1961.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Siebern was considered a good prospect when he came up in 1956, but injuries kept him from realizing his potential with the Yankees. He went on to post excellent OBPs with the Athletics and Orioles with good power. Twice he produced WARs around five, which certainly falls into a star quality player.

While he is known for the Maris trade, he was also part of a deal that finished the rise of the Orioles into a powerhouse. On Dec. 2, 1965, the Orioles traded Siebern for Dick Simpson of the Angels. Simpson never played for the Orioles, as a week later he was part of the deal that brought Frank Robinson to Baltimore. I guess Siebern was an early version of Roberto Kelly.

May 5, 2015

Cruz Control

Nelson Cruz hit his 14th home run of the season Monday night as the Mariners beat the Angels 3-2. All five runs scored on solo homers as Felix Hernandez and Matt Shoemaker pitched outstanding games.

Cruz reached his HR total in just 26 games. That’s ahead of McGwire’s pace in 1998, in which the big slugger hit 10 in the Cardinals first 26 games. In 2001, Barry Bonds hit 12 in the Giants first 26 games. Cruz is off to a great start, but he did that in 2014 as well. If Cruz returns to his career .0585 HR/AB, he’ll hit another 32 this season. Forty-six homer is a great total for a Seattle player, but Cruz is at least establishing himself as having a shot at Roger Maris‘s AL record, and even keeping pace with Bonds and McGwire.

July 17, 2013

History Repeats

Via BBTF (great video linked, too), Frank Deford gets all nostalgic about Roger Maris‘s record:

In 1961 the American League schedule was lengthened by eight games to 162, and it was about this time that summer that the commissioner –– of whom it was once written, “An empty cab drove up to the curb and Ford Frick got out” –– declared that even if some player broke Babe Ruth‘s record of 60 home runs, it would not count if he needed more games than Ruth had had.

So, when Roger Maris hit his 61st in the last game of the longer season, the distinction did not displace Ruth in the record books but was merely listed along with The Babe’s lesser number.

This all became moot in 1998 when Mark McGwire hit his 62nd homer, there to be graciously greeted by Maris’ family survivors –– and, of course, Sammy Sosa then three times topped Maris, and Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001.

Subsequently, McGwire admitted to using performance enhancing drugs, and the only people who don’t assume the same of Bonds and Sosa also believe that Neil Armstrong’s moon landing was a hoax and that Ford Frick was a wise man.

I find this amusing. Deford rips Frick for think Maris’s record was illegitimate. At the time, I believe, Frick was probably in the mainstream. People looked at Maris’s record the same way we now look at the records set by McGwire and Bonds:

But most fans supported the edict, as did the columnist Dick Young of the Daily News on Aug. 22:

[Frick’s] seems to be the realistic approach. Just as there is a difference between the 100-yard dash record and 100-meters, so is there a difference between a home run race over the 154 and 162-game distances. . . . What Maris seems to overlook is that the Commissioner’s deadline has been set for the benefit of Maris and Mantle, just as much as it has built a protective wall around Ruth’s record. It will spare the M & M boys from charges of being ”cheese champs.”

People like Deford protect Maris the same way Frick tried to protect Ruth. I hope I’m alive in 30 years when someone is approaching 75 homers and people are trying to protect Barry Bonds’s record.

As a side note, I finally looked up Maris’s home runs by park that year:

ParkName PA HR HRPct
Cleveland Stadium 41 5 12.2
Comiskey Park I 41 5 12.2
Tiger Stadium 42 5 11.9
Griffith Stadium 40 4 10.0
Municipal Stadium 42 4 9.5
Fenway Park 43 4 9.3
Yankee Stadium 325 30 9.2
Wrigley Field, LA 41 2 4.9
Metropolitan Stadium 41 1 2.4
Memorial Stadium 42 1 2.4

A big reason home runs were up in that expansion season was that the two new ballparks, Wrigley Field in LA and Metropolitan Stadium in Minnesota were good home run parks. As you can see, however, they did not help Maris. If they had, Roger might have passed Ruth before the 154 game mark.

June 19, 2013

Chris Crash

Chris Davis continued his home run barrage Wednesday afternoon, hitting homerun 25 as the Orioles lead the Tigers 6-1 in the fifth inning. Davis is on a pace for 55 homers this season, putting him in spitting distance of the AL record of 61 set by Roger Maris in 1961. The Orioles are playing game 73, and through 73 Yankees games in 1961 Maris owned 27 homers. Given Davis’s career home run rate, the probability of him breaking the record is small, about 0.0001, or 1 in 10,000. A hot home run streak, however, could bring him into contention.

Update: Davis hits a second home run, a two-run shot in the ninth. With an RBI double earlier, he picks up five on the day to possibly none for Cabrera as he tightens the gap in the RBI race. He’s now on a pace for 58 home runs this season.

October 26, 2011 September 24, 2011 February 12, 2011

Fifty Year Catch

Sal Durante, the teenager who caught Roger Maris‘s 61st home run in 1961, received a tour of the new Yankee Stadium.

There would be no epic tussle as there would be decades later when two fans claimed possession of Barry Bonds’s 73rd home run ball in 2001, before a judge awarded them joint custody in advance of an auction. In 1961, the memorabilia business barely existed.

But Sam Gordon, a restaurant owner in Sacramento, Calif., offered Durante $5,000 for the ball. Durante accepted and Gordon returned the ball to Maris, who had told Durante to try to make some money off the ball.

That was enough money to help his parents with debt and marry his girlfriend. Times change.

Maris, of course, still holds the American League record for home runs in a season. At the moment, there doesn’t seem to be anyone in the American League capable of breaking it.