Tag Archives: Luis Rengifo

September 20, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Rengifo started more in September, but hasn’t hit well. Last season he cut down on his strikeouts and increased his BABIP, but was not able to hold that into this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.296, 0.728 — Jacob Wilson batting at Bubba Chandler.
  • 0.292, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Javier Assad.
  • 0.299, 0.706 — Amed Rosario batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
  • 0.292, 0.706 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Adrian Houser.
  • 0.299, 0.703 — Jackson Chourio batting at Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.288, 0.702 — Nico Hoerner batting at Zack Littell.
  • 0.273, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Shane Bieber.
  • 0.257, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting at Yoendrys Gomez.
  • 0.295, 0.698 — Aaron Judge batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
  • 0.294, 0.694 — Sal Frelick batting at Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.282, 0.694 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. George Kirby.
  • 0.272, 0.694 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Kyle Harrison.

Wilson and Rosario tie for the consensus top picks. It’s once again, it says a lot about the Angels offense that the NN none of their batters in the top ten despite playing at Coors against Marquez.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 31, 2025

Beat the Streak Pick

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top predicted hit averages against starting pitchers:

Since 2022, Rengifo posted both low walk and strikeout rates, meaning he puts the ball in play a lot. In 2024 he added a high BABIP, meaning those balls in play were finding holes.

By the way, the first five game hit streaks are in place, and during the season you can see all streaks of at least five games here.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.248, 0.677 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.259, 0.671 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Hicks.
  • 0.252, 0.668 — Jackson Merrill batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.265, 0.664 — Luis Rengifo batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.251, 0.663 — Yainer Diaz batting against Jordan Hicks.
  • 0.241, 0.658 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Elvin Rodriguez.
  • 0.255, 0.657 — Corey Seager batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.256, 0.655 — Jon Berti batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.257, 0.652 — Jose Miranda batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.243, 0.648 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Grant Holmes.

Arraez has yet to collect a hit this season. Note the probabilities remain low as 2024 data is being highly regressed to the mean hit average for the majors, which is an extremely low .204. The majors, right now, are not producing hits.

Altuve is the consensus top pick, with Rengifo the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like another good day for the Padres as they get to face Corbin. Arraez is just two for nine against him, including two Ks. Bogaerts is 3 for 5, Profar 3 for 10.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.364, 0.778 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.343, 0.739 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.356, 0.736 — Luis Rengifo batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.263, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
  • 0.319, 0.714 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.318, 0.709 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.293, 0.707 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.304, 0.700 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.324, 0.699 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.288, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kenny Rosenberg.

There is decent agreement between the two systems today, with Arraez by far the best pick. Kwan and Rengifo tie for the consensus double down choice. Rengifo is one for eight since his return from the IL.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Rosario fits the bill of someone who should rank high on these lists. He tends to produce a high BA with a relatively low OBP. Both his walk and strikeout rates are low, and he owns a high BABIP. On top of that, he is three for six against Corbin.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.763 — Luis Arraez batting against Josh Winckowski.
  • 0.334, 0.729 — Amed Rosario batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.333, 0.725 — Luis Rengifo batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.291, 0.721 — Steven Kwan batting against Seth Lugo.
  • 0.301, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting against Yonny Chirinos.
  • 0.315, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.316, 0.715 — Yandy Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.289, 0.712 — Jose Iglesias batting against Shawn Dubin.
  • 0.311, 0.704 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.312, 0.697 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.

The lists are similar, with Kwan making the NN. Rosario stands as the consensus top pick, while Rengifo and Arraez tie for the double down pick. The weather is iffy in New England today, so keep an eye on the Padres playing in Boston if you decide to go with Arraez.

Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates extended his hit streak to 25 games on Saturday with a 1 for 5. The NN gives him a .652 probability of extending his streak. His hit average during the streak stands at an excellent .313. For the season, however, it’s only .250.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Rengifo lowered both his walk and strikeout rates this season and greatly raised his BABIP to become a high average hitter. Looking at STATCAST, he leveled his swing, and that led to a higher percentage of his balls in play going for line drives. He reinvented his swing to great success, and that appears to be an under-reported story.

Diaz is listed as day to day.

The NN produces these batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.297, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against JP Sears.
  • 0.310, 0.717 — Steven Kwan batting against Brent Suter.
  • 0.332, 0.716 — Luis Rengifo batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.302, 0.712 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.311, 0.710 — Amed Rosario batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.307, 0.701 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.296, 0.700 — William Contreras batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.306, 0.699 — Elias Diaz batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.258, 0.686 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Hicks.
  • 0.259, 0.684 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Marcus Stroman.

Arraez went two days in a row without a hit! He still remains the odds on favorite to pick up one today. Meanwhile, his teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. owns a sixteen game hit streak, the longest currently in the majors. Witt is third at eleven games.

Rengifo stands at the consensus top pick, with Kwan the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 9, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Rengifo missed the last few games with an illness, so be sure the check the starting lineup for the Angels. He started 2024 well above his norms, reducing his walk and strikeout rates while smashing the ball to the tune of a .378 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.274, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.267, 0.679 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Reid Detmers.
  • 0.287, 0.679 — Luis Rengifo batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.251, 0.670 — William Contreras batting against Sonny Gray.
  • 0.260, 0.669 — Jeremy Pena batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.260, 0.666 — Salvador Perez batting against Reid Detmers.
  • 0.273, 0.655 — Taylor Ward batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.243, 0.655 — Josh Naylor batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.246, 0.654 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.248, 0.652 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tobias Myers.
  • 0.250, 0.652 — Josh Rojas batting against Pablo Lopez.

Altuve is five for 15 with no walks and four strikeouts career against Stroman. He is the consensus top pick, with Rengifo second. With a limited schedule today, there are few high probability picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 8, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Note that Rengifo is ill, but active. Bohm received a day off on Tuesday after his hit streak ended on Monday.

Note that the Rangers and Athletics play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produced this list of players with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.269, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting against Hayden Wesneski.
  • 0.292, 0.714 — Harold Ramirez batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.302, 0.704 — Alec Bohm batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.288, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.274, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Rodon.
  • 0.281, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.286, 0.688 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Joe Ross.
  • 0.266, 0.688 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.253, 0.682 — William Contreras batting against Brady Singer.

We’re starting to see more batters with probabilities over .700 as the 2024 season gets regressed less to the .213 MLB hit average (hits/PA). Arraez did not start on Tuesday, but did get a hit in a pinch.

As the two systems continue to disagree on Arraez, Ramirez stands as the consensus top pick, with Bohm the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 30, 2023

Best Batter Today

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Bryce Harper of the Phillies returns to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Harper went two for four with a walk, a double, and a home run to hep the Phillies to a 12-7 win over the Angels. He takes over fifth place Harper hit .382/.473/.855 in his last 21 games, including nine of his fourteen home runs on the season. Seventeen of his 29 hits went for extra bases.

In the same game, Luis Rengifo of the Angels posted the highest game score of the day, a 79. He went three for four with two solo home runs. The 26-year-old improved his walk rate this season, and owns a .341 OBP versus .306 for his career.

Mookie Betts of the Dodgers remains at the top of the rankings after a two for three with a walk and home run in a 7-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners sits second after a pinched nerve in his left foot caused him to sit out the 3-1 Rangers win.

Alex Bregman of the Astros ranks third as he collected three hits, including a home run, in a 6-2 win over the Red Sox. Ronald Acuna Jr.ranks four as he picked up two more hits in a 3-1 win over Colorado.

With Texas winning, the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers are in a virtual three-way tie for the AL West title. I wish the Massive Tie Scenario was still meaningful!