For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.284, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.281, 0.682 — Nick Gonzales batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.270, 0.674 — Jakob Marsee batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.269, 0.673 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.269, 0.678 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.268, 0.687 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.266, 0.672 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.263, 0.665 — Hunter Goodman batting at Randy Vasquez.
- 0.260, 0.663 — Manny Machado batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.258, 0.647 — Spencer Horwitz batting at Cade Povich.
Those are really low projected hit averages today, usually someone is over .300.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.284, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.268, 0.687 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.281, 0.682 — Nick Gonzales batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.269, 0.678 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.237, 0.676 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Gavin Williams.
- 0.270, 0.674 — Jakob Marsee batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.269, 0.673 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.266, 0.672 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.263, 0.665 — Hunter Goodman batting at Randy Vasquez.
- 0.240, 0.665 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kevin Gausman.
- 0.236, 0.665 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Cristian Javier.
Arraez tops both lists, but with a very low probability. Gonzales gets the nod as the consensus double down pick. Note that the Pirates Orioles game starts at 1 PM EDT, so if you are going with Gonzales, get your pick in early.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!