An unlikely home run:
Jedd Gyorko became just 3rd player in past 3 seasons to homer on a ball with a 1% hit probability based on velo/angle (h/t @JasonBernard_ ) pic.twitter.com/yjEiEcLOS9
— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) August 17, 2017
I can believe there were about 300 balls hit like that in the last three years. The Pirates lead the Cardinals 5-2 in the fifth inning.
While we mostly watch sports to see athletes competing at the highest level, it’s the low probability events that really catch our attention. Jedd Gyorko went into last night’s Padres game against Jose Fernandez with a .146/.201/.244 slash line. Jose Fernandez, the Miami starter, had allowed a .176/.231/.247 slash line to opponents. The NL averages were .248/.311/.387. So Jose was much better than the NL average, and Jedd much worse. The log5 method estimates that Gyorko should produce a .099/.143/.144 slash line against Fernandez. Instead, Jedd goes two for three with two home runs, in PETCO Park nonetheless. The Padres gave Gyorko a nice long term contract. If Friday night was any indication, that could pay off nicely.
The Padres ink Jedd Gyorko through his arbitration years, and into free agency:
Gyorko’s agreement, announced Monday, is a six-year deal that adds $35 million over five seasons through 2019.
…
“These contracts make a lot of sense for both sides,” general manager Josh Byrnes said. “In this case we potentially buy out two years of free agency. It’s rare to do it so early, but Jedd, I think, he answered all the criteria you look at. First of all, character. This guy is a baseball player. I think he’s going to be a part of us establishing the kind of winning tradition we want to have here. He’s always hit and he’s handled things that have been thrown at him.”
The deal does have an option and buyout at the end. Gyorko just entered his prime this season, so the Padres capture all of that part of his career. It’s a good deal all around.