For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.308, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Slade Cecconi.
- 0.290, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.289, 0.685 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.289, 0.684 — Maikel Garcia batting at Slade Cecconi.
- 0.288, 0.681 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.283, 0.682 — Victor Robles batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.283, 0.676 — Daylen Lile batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.282, 0.692 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
- 0.282, 0.684 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.281, 0.662 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
Witt sat Sunday to give his back a chance to heal. It’s an important game for the Royals as they play the Guardians, both teams fighting for the third wild card slot in the AL.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.308, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Slade Cecconi.
- 0.274, 0.712 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Garrett Crochet.
- 0.273, 0.709 — Miguel Andujar batting at Yu Darvish.
- 0.263, 0.699 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Nick Lodolo.
- 0.290, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.282, 0.692 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
- 0.280, 0.689 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
- 0.246, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting vs. Nolan McLean.
- 0.289, 0.685 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.282, 0.684 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.289, 0.684 — Maikel Garcia batting at Slade Cecconi.
Trea Turner injured his hamstring on Sunday. He will get an MRI, so I expect he will not play today. Witt is the top pick if he plays, with Hoerner the double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!