Tag Archives: Frankie Montas

June 25, 2025

Impressive Night of Pitching

Tuesday night treated the baseball world to a number of outstanding performances for starting pitching, especially with the limits on starters these days. Eight pitchers posted game scores of at least 63. Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox topped the list with a 78, walking three and striking out ten in seven shutout innings. Taj Bradley of the Rays, Ranger Suarez of the Phillies, and Jake Latz of the Rangers took no-hitters fairly deep into games. Carlos Rodon of the Yankees, Framber Valdez of the Astros, and Frankie Montas of the Mets did not allow a run. Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks allowed one run in five innings, striking out seven.

For all that great pitching (including the Phillies versus Astros ending in a 1-0 Houston win), the starters went 1-1 with six no decisions!

Special mention goes to Chase Burns of the Reds, making his MLB debut against the Yankees:

Burns, the second overall pick in last July’s amateur draft, became the first starting pitcher in the expansion era to strike out the first five batters he faced in his debut. The 22-year old right-hander allowed three runs and six hits in five innings and struck out eight.
ESPN.com

Now we just need the starters to go a little deeper. Valdez currently stands third in the Bill James Starting Pitcher Rankings.

December 2, 2024

Montas to the Mets

ESPN reports that the Mets reached an agreement with free agent pitcher Frankie Montas. He will earn $34 million over two seasons:

With the free agency of the three pitchers, first baseman Pete Alonso, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, outfielder Harrison Bader and the ending of payments on Justin Verlander‘s and Max Scherzer‘s salaries, the Mets have shaved around $150 million off their payroll from last season.

They remain among the favorites to sign superstar outfielder Juan Soto, who shares an agent, Scott Boras, with Montas. New York has engaged in conversations about a vast array of free agents beyond Soto, though signing him to a record deal would not preclude the Mets from pursuing other big names.
ESPN.com

I’m not quite sure why Boras matters here. Supposedly, some teams won’t deal with the agent, but the Mets are not one of those teams. Washington supposedly used to like to make deals with Boras, so maybe Soto will return to where it all started!

It might make a difference if the Mets overpaid for Montas, signaling they are willing to go high on Soto. If they did it’s only a slight overpay, and it depends on how you value a WAR. Given his age and recent history, Montas strikes me as a 1.5 WAR player, worth between $15 million and $18 million a year, depending on a WAR value between $10 and $12 million. So $17 million seems reasonable, especially in a high-tax locale.

Montas should be a solid third starter for New York, and the deal leaves the Mets with plenty of flexibility both in the long and short term.

October 2, 2024

Playoffs Today

Tyler Holton leads the Tigers against Hunter Brown and the Astros, a win sending the Tigers to the ALDS. Holton serves as the opener for Reese Olson. Holton came to the majors late at seasonal age 26. In 188 2/3 innings he owns a 10-4 record and 2.19 ERA with just 37 walks allowed. He made nine starts in 2024, pitching 17 innings with a 1.59 ERA. This will be Olson’s first time this season coming out of the bullpen. He posted a 3.53 ERA in twenty two starts, allowing just seven home runs in 112 1/3 innings.

Brown found his MLB groove in June, and from then on pitched brilliantly. Over his last 19 game he posted a 2.20 ERA with excellent three-true outcomes.

The Royals go for a series sweep of the Orioles with ace Seth Lugo on the mound against mid-season acquisition Zach Eflin. The former Mets starter not only reached the 162 inning qualification level, but pushed over 200 innings for the first time in his career. His strikeout rate fell from his career highs, but he did a fantastic job limiting walks and home runs. Eflin proved a relief to an injured Orioles rotation, going 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA in nine starts.

The Mets can end the Brewers season as they send Sean Manaea against Frankie Montas in battle of former Oakland teammates. Manaea tied his single season high in wins with 12 and set a new innings level with a 181 2/3 IP. He did a great job of limiting his, with just 134 allowed on the season for an opposition BA of .202. Montas came over to the Brewers mid season and started blowing away batters, with 70 K in 57 1/3 innings.

Finally, the another great pitching matchup takes place in San Diego where the Padres go for a sweep of the sleepy Braves. Max Fried takes on Joe Musgrove. Fried pitched well against San Diego in his career, 3-1 in six starts with a 2.30 ERA. The one loss did come this season. Musgrove stands 3-1 against the Braves in his career, but with a 4.29 ERA.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2024

Game of the Day

The Brewers try to push the struggling Braves farther down in the Wild Card race. Atlanta now trails the Padres and Diamondbacks by two games, while the Brewers own a comfortable six game lead in the NL Central. Frankie Montas faces Charlie Morton. Montas makes his second start for the Brewers after allowing nine hits and three runs in five innings his first time out. Overall, he owns a 5.03 ERA on the season, allowing 15 home runs in 98 1/3 innings. Morton comes into the game with a 3.94 ERA. His strikeout rate is down this season and his home run rate up as the 40-year-old may finally be showing his age.

Enjoy!

June 9, 2024

Games of the Day

The Reds, now in second place in the NL Central, try to reach .500 as they host the Cubs, Cincinnati owning a seven game win streak. Shota Imanaga takes on Frankie Montas. Imanaga brings a 1.88 ERA into the game, but his a few innings short of qualifying for the NL leader board. He failed to get out of the fifth inning in his last two starts. Montas does poorly at getting ground balls when he needs one, with just one double play induced in 31 opportunities.

The Sunday night game wraps up the Dodgers at the Yankees, Los Angeles going for a sweep of their long-time interleague rival. Tyler Glasnow battles rookie Luis Gil. Glasnow, thanks to 11.7 K per 9 IP, limited batters to just 49 hits in 80 innings. Gil leads the AL in ERA with a 1.82 mark. He also blows batters away with 11.03 K per 9 IP and just 30 hits allowed in 69 1/3 innings. Note that most of the big guns on the Yankees fare poorly against Glasnow.

Enjoy!

May 12, 2024

Games of the Day

The Diamondbacks and Orioles start the days games in Baltimore as Zac Gallen takes on Dean Kremer. Gallen stands send in wins in the majors since the start of the 2023 season. His 3.02 ERA in that time goes along with an outstanding set of three-true outcome rates. Kremer managed to limit line drives this season to 12.5% of batted balls, which seems like a very tough number to maintain.

The Nationals play at Fenway with MacKenzie Gore facing Brayan Bello. Gore makes just his third road start of the season. He allowed two runs in ten innings away from Washington with 18 K and just two walks. Bello abandoned the four-seam fastball this season, using his change up and slider more.

The Reds and Giants match-up on the west coast as Frankie Montas battles Kyle Harrison. Montas is averaging a little over four innings per game as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. Harrison cuts his ERA by almost a run compared to his first MLB season in 2023. Last year he gave up eight home runs in 34 2/3 innings, this year he allowed five home runs in 45 innings.

Enjoy!

April 21, 2024

No Starter, No Problem

Reds staring pitcher Frankie Montas left the game after three batters due to a line drive striking him. Six Reds relievers then shutdown the Angels for 8 2/3 innings to give Cincinnati a 3-0 win. Brent Suter took the long relief role, going 3 1/3 innings. Overall, the pen gave up six hits and four walks while striking out six.

Jose Soriano starter for the Angels, and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He fell apart, however, allowing three runs, two more than the Reds needed.

September 9, 2022

Games of the Day

The Mets travel to Miami with a 1/2 game lead over Atlanta in the NL East. David Peterson takes on Edward Cabrera. Peterson improves on a disappointing 2021 season by cutting down on home runs allowed. That helped lower his ERA from 5.54 to 3.32. Cabrera, in his sophomore year, made similar strides. He allowed six home runs in 26 1/3 innings in 2021, just five home runs in 49 innings this season.

The Rays play a big seven game stretch, opening today with three at the Yankees, then playing four at the Blue Jays. The Rays trail the Yankees by 4 1/2 games, but only three in the AFILC. Friday’s game pits Drew Rasmussen against Frankie Montas. Rasmussen pitched well since the start of July, posting a 1.99 ERA in eleven starts. He allowed just three home runs in 58 2/3 innings. The Rays do not allow him to go deep in games and get in trouble. Montas is 2-0 with an 0.49 ERA against the Rays this season in three starts.

The Guardians lead the Twins by 1 1/2 games, two in the AFILC, as they open a three-game series in Minnesota. Cal Quantrill takes on Dylan Bundy. Quantrill pitched decently against the Twins in his career, 2-0 in eight appearances, five of them starts, with a 3.79 ERA. Bundy knocked his ERA down nearly two runs by greatly lowering his walk rate this season.

Enjoy!

September 4, 2022

Games of the Day

The Marlins finish their series with the Braves as Pablo Lopez takes on Max Fried. Lopez pitched well this season, his only real weakness the home run ball. Most of those came on the road. Fried pitched great, and is set to cross his single season high of 165 2/3 innings, reached both in 2019 and 2021.

The Rays go for a sweep of the Yankees in Tampa Bay as Frankie Montas visits Shawn Armstrong. Montas as yet to win for the Yankees in five starts. He allowed 32 hits in 25 2/3 innings, five of those home runs. Armstrong makes his second start of the season. He seems to be more than an opener, as he did last three innings his first time out. He is a long time, one-inning reliever, so we’ll see how deep he goes today.

The streaking Mariners send George Kirby against the Guardians and Cal Quantrill. Kirby doesn’t walk many batters despite batters being able to lay off his pitches outside the zone. That may be why despite a high K rate, he also allows a high number of hits. Quantrill saw his K rate drop and his hit rate rise compared to 2021, which is likely why his ERA is up six tenths of a run.

Enjoy!

August 7, 2022

Games of the Day

The Yankees send Frankie Montas against the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright as the Cardinals go for a sweep in St. Louis. Montas makes his Yankees debut after posting a 3.18 ERA for the Athletics. That ERA yielded a 4-9 record with Oakland. He should do better with the Yankees. Wainwright looks for career win 193 as he approaches 200. He has an outside chance of making the milestone this season.

The try to gain back a game against the Mets as Spencer Strider faces Jacob deGrom. Strider is putting together a good rookie of the year case with a 6-3 record and 2.79 ERA. He blows away batters with 133 K in 87 innings. deGrom makes his second start of the season. He struck out six in five inning without walking a batter in his first.

Finally, the Sunday night game features the Padres at the Dodgers with Yu Darvish facing Tyler Anderson Darvish saw his K rate drop a bit this season, but made up for it with fewer walks. Anderson’s 12-1 record this season gives him a career winning percentage over .500, 41-39.

Enjoy!

August 1, 2022

Pitching Replenish

The Yankees solidified their rotation and bullpen with two deals on Monday. They traded four prospects to Oakland for two pitchers, including Frankie Montas:

The A’s sent Montas and right-handed reliever Lou Trivino to the New York Yankees in exchange for four prospects in what’s expected to be one of the biggest trades of the summer, sources confirm to this news organization. The A’s acquired pitching prospect JP Sears, left-handed pitching prospect Ken Waldichuk, infield prospect Cooper Bowman and right-handed pitching prospect Luis Medina.
MSN.com

Montas pitched well so far this season, owning a 3.18 ERA. He lowered his walk and home run rate this year while leaving his strikeout rate at a high 9.4 per 9 IP. Trivino allowed a ton of runs this season, but his K rate is high, and the Yankees defense is pretty good.

On the Oakland side, Sears blew away the minor leagues and pitched well in his 22 MLB innings. Waldichuk is another high K pitcher who needs to work on his control. Bowman has not been impressive with the bat, while Medina, finally making it to AA, walks a ton of batters. Sears is the prize in this deal.

The second deal involved the Cubs and a reliever:

The New York Yankees are acquiring right-handed reliever Scott Effross from the Chicago Cubs, according to Jack Curry of YES Network. The Cubs will receive right-hander Hayden Wesneski in return, according to Ken Rosenthal.
CBSSports.com

In his short MLB career Effross allowed a .223/.270/.321 slash line. Wesneski is a starter with a 3.52 minor league ERA but very good three true outcomes.

The Yankees get some insurance for the rotation and help fill the injury void in the bullpen. The Athletics and Cubs each get a pitcher who can help them long term.

May 26, 2022

Games of the Day

The Brewers lead the Cardinals by 3 1/2 games in the NL Central as the teams start a series in St. Louis. Eric Lauer takes on Adam Wainwright. Lauer allowed seven home runs this season but little else. Eleven of the twelve runs he allowed came on the homers, helping him to a 2.16 ERA. Wainwright, at seasonal age 40 continues to impress. He allowed just 38 hits in 47 innings. He worked in a changeup a lot more than he did in the past, giving batters something else to worry about.

Martin Perez takes the hill for Texas against Frankie Montas in Oakland. With 49 1/3 innings this season, Perez has the most IP in the majors without allowing a home run. Montas seems like he should own a better ERA than his 3.55 mark. He holds opponents to a .205/.260/.346 slash line, and that improves with runners on base. I don’t see an explanation in his splits.

Enjoy!

August 28, 2021

Games of the Day

Two early games hold implications for the AL Wild Card race. The Red Sox visit Cleveland with Nathan Eovaldi facing Cal Quantrill. Eovaldi, for the second year in a row, holds a 3.72 ERA. In that time he allowed just 19 home runs and 33 walks in 193 1/3 innings. Quantrill holds a 3.04 ERA overall, and is 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA as a starter.

The Yankees take on the Athletics at the same time with Nestor Cortes battling Frankie Montas. Cortes tries to help the Yankees extend their winning streak to 14 games. He owns a 2.56 ERA in 56 1/3 innings thanks in part of just 16 walks allowed. Montas improved during his last ten starts, posting a 2.54 ERA with 70 K in 60 1/3 innings.

First place teams battle in Atlanta as the Giants send Logan Webb against the Braves and Huascar Ynoa. At seasonal age 24 Webb produced a breakout season. In 94 innings during his first two year in the majors he walked 38 and struck out 83. In 98 1/3 innings this season he walked 28 and struck out 105 to bring his ERA down from the low fives to the high twos. Ynoa, just 23 years old, went through a similar transformation, although with fewer innings. He struck out 63 and walked just 13 this season in 56 innings.

Enjoy!

August 4, 2021

Games of the Day

It the battle of the Ms in Oakland as Joe Musgrove of the Padres faces Frankie Montas of the Athletics. Musgrove brought his home runs allowed under control in July, allowing just two in five starts. Montas is on a roll with a 2.48 ERA over his last six starts. He allowed just 25 hits in 36 1/3 innings.

The Mets try to stem the erosion of their NL East lead as they send Carlos Carrasco against the Marlins and Zach Thompson Carrasco makes his second start of the season after allowing just one run in four innings in his first outing. The rookie Thompson is off to a great start in terms of ERA, with a 2.33 mark in 38 2/3 innings. He struck out 41 and allowed just 28 hits.

If you don’t need to catch Zs in bed, you can catch Zs on the west coast as Jake Odorizzi of the Astros takes on Max Scherzer of the Dodgers. Odorizzi has not gone deep in games this season, pitching just 56 2/3 innings in 13 starts. Scherzer makes his Dodgers debut. In his regular season career Scherzer is 4-3 at Dodger Stadium with a 2.81 ERA.

Enjoy!

April 21, 2021

Games of the Day

The Giants start off the day at the Phillies with Anthony DeSclafani facing Zach Eflin. DeSclafani start could not be more polar opposite from his disastrous 2020 effort. Last year, he allowed seven home runs in 33 2/3 innings for a 7.22 ERA. In 2021, he’s allowed one home run in 17 innings for a 1.06 ERA. Eflin shows great control in 2021, with just two walks in twenty innings.

Kenta Maeda and the Twins try to end the Athletics win streak as Oakland sends Frankie Montas to the mound. Maeda allowed a high number of hits, 20 hits in 14 2/3 innings, but not a lot of earned runs (five of his seven runs allowed were earned). The one home run against him was a solo shot and batters are just 4 for 19 with runners in scoring position. Montas allowed one run in his last twelve innings after giving up seven runs in his first start of the season.

Enjoy!

April 6, 2021

Pounding the Athletics

The Athletics completed their first turn through the rotation with another pounding as the Dodgers win in Oakland 10-3. Opponents scored at least eight runs in each of the five games, with starter Frankie Montas allowing seven runs in 2 2/3 innings on Monday. The team ERA stands at 8.60, as 43 of the 45 runs allowed count as earned. The starters hold a 9.82 ERA, giving up five home runs in 22 innings. The bullpen, with a slightly better ERA, 7.43 in 23 innings, actually pitched slightly worse in terms of three true outcomes, with more walks and fewer strike outs. They also allowed five home runs.

I expected the A’s offense to be down a bit, but pitching should have been a strength. Both Houston and Los Angeles are excellent offensive teams, but this has to have the team worried.

October 8, 2020

Playoffs Today

Thursday features four teams facing elimination. The Braves at the Marlins begin the day with Kyle Wright facing Sixto Sanchez. Wright walks the park in the regular season, averaging 5.68 walks per nine inning in his 38 innings, the third highest rate for at least that number of innings. Sanchez was much better at 2.54 BB per nine. Based on this matchup, the Marlins may very well be playing Friday.

Oakland visits the Astros with Frankie Montas charged with keeping Oakland alive another day. Montas went 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA against the Astros in the regular season. In 15 1/3 innings he struck out 14 and walked three, but allowed two home runs. He faced the Astros a lot in his career, and a number of their batters hit him well. The Astros have not named a starter. Note that the core four of the Astros offense right now can support anyone who pitches.

Ryan Thompson serves as the opener for the Rays as they try to push the Yankees over the brink. Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for New York. Thompson made one start this season and pitched well, allowing one hit and no runs in two innings. That start came against the Yankees. Montgomery lasted just 2/3 of an innings against Tampa Bay this year, giving up five hits, including two home runs, and four runs.

The Dodgers have not named a visiting starter to try to end the series against the Padres and Adrian Morejon. Corey Seager stands as the offensive star of this series so far for LA, three for seven with two doubles and three RBI. Morejon is another pitcher with impressive control and a high ERA. He walked four and struck out 25 in 19 1/3 innings, yet allowed 20 hits, seven of those for home runs. He’s a three-true outcomes pitcher, but one of the outcomes in horrendous.

Enjoy!

June 4, 2019

Games of the Day

The Yankees visit Toronto with Masahiro Tanaka facing Clayton Richard. Tanaka has a large platoon difference this season, allowing a .281 BA to left-handed batters, .218 to right handers. Richard makes his third start for the Jays this season, owning a 3.38 ERA despite walking six and striking out just five in eight innings.

On the west coast, Frankie Montas takes on Griffin Canning as the Athletics visit the Angles. Montas is one of the outstanding three-true outcome pitchers of the year, with 66 K, 18 BB, and just four home runs in 64 innings. Canning is with him on the strikeouts and walks, but allowed six home runs in just 32 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

May 5, 2019

Games of the Day

The Athletics and Pirates play the rubber game of their series with Frankie Montas facing Jordan Lyles. A high BA allowed with runners in scoring position failed to hurt Montas’s ERA much. He allowed 11 hits in 30 AB, but only 12 RBI. He tends not to give up the big hit. Lyles, however, crushes the competition in that situation, allowing a .188 BA, 3 for 16. It helps that he keeps runners out of scoring position.

Michael Pineda returns to New York to face his old team, the Yankees. Domingo German takes the hill in opposition. Pineda owns a great walk rate, but his strikeout rate is low and his home run rate is high. He allowed 37 hits for a .316 opposition BA. German pitches well in all aspects of the three-true outcomes, helping him to a 2.56 ERA.

Finally, a healthy Jeff Samardzjia leads the Giants against Luis Castillo and Reds. Samardzjia limits both on base and power this season, with a .209/.270/.330 opponents slash line. Castillo leads the majors in ERA with a 1.45 mark. He allowed just two home runs in 43 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

April 17, 2019

Games of the Day

Given the ERAs of many of the scheduled starters, this might be the highest scoring Wednesday ever. Two games stand out from the crowd.

Jeff Samardzjia leads the Giants against Jeremy Hellickson and the the Nationals. Samardzjia has yet to allow a home run this year, a big reason for his 1.62 ERA. Of his 12 hits allowed in 16 2/3 innings, only two have gone for extra bases. Hellickson is an interesting pitcher, as he allows a low hit rate despite a low strike out rate. With Washington, he’s kept that up and lowered his home run rate.

On the west coast, Wade Miley faces Frankie Montas and the Athletics. Miley’s low strikeout rate does lead to hits, but he keeps his home runs and walks low to compensate. Montas got knocked around a bit by the Astros in his career, owning a 5.89 ERA in five games. Two of those were relief appearances where he got knocked around a bit.

Enjoy!

April 5, 2019

Games of the Day

The hot Tampa Bay Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the mound in San Francisco against Dereck Rodriguez. Glasnow improved his K/BB since moving to the Rays. He posted a 1.67 K/BB with the Pirates, 3.40 K/BB with the Rays. Rodriguez in his brief career has been tough with men on base, allowing opponents a .203/.271/.302 slash line.

Oakland send Frankie Montas against division rival Houston and Collin McHugh. Montas pitched well in his first start of the season, walking none and strikeout out six Angels in six innings. McHugh lasted just five innings in his start, but he struck out nine.

Enjoy!

August 30, 2018

Games of the Day

First place teams meet in Atlanta as the Cubs send Mike Montgomery against the Braves and Mike Foltynewicz. Montgomery made 13 starts and 19 relief appearances this season, but pitched much better as a starter. He posted a 3.08 ERA in that role, versus 5.13 in relief. Foltynewicz used his ability to strike out batters and good fielding behind him to limit opponents to just 108 hits in 145 innings pitched this season.

Seattle tries to hold on in the AL Wild Card race as they send Wade LeBlanc against the Athletics and Frankie Montas. LeBlanc balances his high home run rate with a low walk rate. Montas allows a .290 BA, but that drops to .232 with men in scoring position.

Finally, the tight NL West race pits the Diamondbacks and Robbie Ray against the Dodgers and Rick Hill. Ray allowed 15 home runs this season, but only two of those came on the road. Hill split his 14 home runs allowed evenly home and road.

Enjoy!

July 9, 2018

Games of the Day

The Yankees and Orioles play a Twi-Night double header. Game one features CC Sabathia against Jimmy Yacabonis. Sabathia pitched well since the start of June, posting a 2.09 ERA thanks to just 10 walks in 38 2/3 innings. Yacabonis is off to an impressively bad start to his career. In 27 innings covering 2017 and 2018, he allowed 27 hits and 20 walks, three of the hits home runs. He only struck out 14 batters. He starts off in a hole, with a .434 OBP allowed with the bases empty, but “saves” himself with a .182 BA allowed with men in scoring position. His career ERA of 5.33 seems low for his other numbers.

Two of the hottest teams in the majors meet in Houston as the Athletics play the Astros. Oakland is 16-4 since June 16th (best in the majors), the Astros 15-6. Frankie Montas takes on Gerrit Cole. Montas allowed just two home runs in 42 1/3 innings. Cole is already 2-0 against Oakland this season in three starts. He struck out 27 A’s in just 18 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

July 9, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.331 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.327 — Albert Almora batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.320 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Javier Baez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.299 — Adam C Eaton batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Michael Brantley batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.298 — Anthony Rendon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — Mark Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
0.294 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.288 — Juan Soto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.287 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.285 — Yasiel Puig batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.285 — Justin Turner batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.282 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.282 — Josh Reddick batting against Frankie Montas.
0.281 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.281 — Chris Taylor batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jose Urena.
0.279 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.279 — Wilmer Difo batting against Ivan Nova.

It looks like it could be a good day for the Nationals offense. Note that Puig is likely headed for the disabled list.

Altuve is 3 for 4 career against Montas.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.341, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.327, 0.750 — Albert Almora batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.331, 0.739 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.320, 0.735 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.299, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.287, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.294, 0.716 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.713 — Javier Baez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.306, 0.713 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.273, 0.710 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.306, 0.706 — Matthew Adams batting against Ivan Nova.
0.281, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.275, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.293, 0.702 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.278, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Minor.
0.299, 0.701 — Adam C Eaton batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282, 0.699 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.298, 0.697 — Anthony Rendon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.254, 0.696 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chase Anderson.
0.279, 0.693 — Francisco Lindor batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.270, 0.693 — Adam Jones batting against CC Sabathia.
0.296, 0.692 — Mark Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
0.271, 0.691 — Manny Machado batting against CC Sabathia.
0.276, 0.690 — Odubel Herrera batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.280, 0.690 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jose Urena.
0.265, 0.690 — Adam Jones batting against Luis Cessa.

Altuve is the consensus first pick, with Kemp and Almora tied for second. Of course, Almora is usually benched when he’s rated highly by the NN.

Note that there are two double headers on Monday, the Yankees at the Orioles and the Phillies at the Mets. Be careful picking players from those games, make sure they are in the starting lineup against that particular pitcher.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 1, 2018

Games of the Day

The Rays try to take three of four from the visiting Astros as Houston sends Charlie Morton against Blake Snell. Morton is 10-1 in his 16 starts, and Houston is 11-5 overall in those games. He is coming off a June in which he kept the ball in the park, but walked a high number of batters. Snell also goes for his 11th win. He is 5-1 at home with a 0.81 ERA, thanks to allowing just 28 hits in 44 1/3 innings.

Veterans Gio Gonzalez and Jake Arrieta take the mound as the Nationals play the Phillies. Gonzalez fell apart in June, posting an 8.44 ERA in five starts. He allowed six home runs and 11 walks in 21 1/3 innings. Arrieta had an evil month as well, 0-4 with 6.66 ERA. He allowed seven home runs in 25 2/3 innings.

The first place Braves go for a sweep of St. Louis with Mike Foltynewicz taking on John Gant. Foltynewicz may be the unluckiest pitcher in the majors this year. He is just 5-4 despite a 2.14 ERA. The assigned wins tracker says he should be 7-3. Gant split time between the bullpen and the rotation, allowing just one home run in 33 2/3 innings.

Mike Clevinger matches up against Frankie Montas as the Indians play the Athletics. Clevinger comes off a pretty good June in which he posted a 2.78 ERA. He struck out 33 and walked just 11 batters in 32 1/3 innings. Montas is pitching much better as a starter than he did as a reliever in 2017. In about the same number of innings, he cut his home runs allowed from ten to two.

Finally, the Red Sox and Yankees play the rubber game of their series with David Price battling Luis Severino. Price has not shone against the Yankees since putting on a Red Sox uniform. He is 2-5 with a 7.42 ERA, allowing 65 hits in 43 2/3 innings. Severino has not exactly dominated the Red Sox either. He is 2-5 with a 4.61 ERA, despite 62 K and 13 BB in 52 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

June 14, 2018

A Little Mean Regression

I noted this morning in the Beat the Streak post that Vince Velasquez gave up more hits than expected because:

Velasquez owns a high strikeout rate, but it’s somewhat balanced by a high BABIP allowed

A high BABIP is sometimes a sign of a pitcher being unlucky. Velasquez struck out six Rockies in 6 2/3 innings Thursday afternoon, allowing just one hit. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and the Phillies win 9-3.

In the same post, Frankie Montas came up:

Montas is off to a good start this season, but his career is a rather small sample size. He greatly reduced his ERA despite cutting down on strikeouts. He instead concentrated on preventing walks and home runs. Right now, the NN sees him as a slightly better than league average pitcher in terms of hit average, while Altuve is way above average. I would think that Montas pitching to contact would be good for Altuve, and Montas does give up a high percentage of line drives. I suspect Montas is due for a correction, we just don’t know when.

It came today as the Astros picked up eleven hits against him. Houston sweeps the series against Oakland with a 7-3 win.

June 14, 2018

Games of the Day

For the third day in a row, the Atros at the Athletics present a great pitching match-up. Despite that, Houston dominated Oakland in the series so far, taking the first two games by a combined score of 19-8. Justin Verlander faces off against Frankie Montas today. Verlander makes entire lineups look like pitcher hitting, allowing a .157/.214/.262 slash line this season. See the Beat the Streak post for my take on Montas.

A battle of first-place like teams takes place in Seattle, with David Price and the Red Sox visiting Felix Hernandez and the Mariners. The Red Sox are one game up on the Yankees, but the Yankees played six fewer games and own the better winning percentage. Price might be pitching better than his 4.00 ERA, his main weakness is walks allowed. He also gets hit harder with men in scoring position, especially for power. Hernandez gets hammered with runners on base, where the power against him in that situation moves base runners a long way.

Enjoy!

June 14, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.307 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.303 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.301 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.300 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.297 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.296 — Nolan Arenado batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.296 — Jean Segura batting against David Price.
0.289 — Mookie Betts batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.288 — Odubel Herrera batting against German Marquez.
0.282 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.281 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tyson Ross.
0.279 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.279 — J.D. Martinez batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.278 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.277 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.277 — Nick Castellanos batting against Lance Lynn.
0.276 — Brandon Crawford batting against Daniel Straily.
0.275 — Nick Markakis batting against Tyson Ross.
0.274 — Jose Ramirez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.273 — Jon Jay batting against Steven Matz.
0.270 — Starlin Castro batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.270 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Straily.
0.269 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.268 — Brian Anderson batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.266 — Noel A Cuevas batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.266 — Francisco Lindor batting against Carlos Rodon.

It looks like a good day to pick someone from the Rockies. Velasquez owns a high strikeout rate, but it’s somewhat balanced by a high BABIP allowed.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.301, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.296, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against David Price.
0.297, 0.727 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.303, 0.724 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.307, 0.723 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.300, 0.720 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.279, 0.716 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.282, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.289, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.281, 0.710 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tyson Ross.
0.296, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.279, 0.706 — J.D. Martinez batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.274, 0.702 — Jose Ramirez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.277, 0.702 — Nick Castellanos batting against Lance Lynn.
0.278, 0.700 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.269, 0.699 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.288, 0.699 — Odubel Herrera batting against German Marquez.
0.265, 0.699 — Matt M Duffy batting against Domingo German.
0.273, 0.698 — Jon Jay batting against Steven Matz.
0.275, 0.695 — Nick Markakis batting against Tyson Ross.
0.270, 0.695 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Straily.
0.276, 0.692 — Brandon Crawford batting against Daniel Straily.
0.270, 0.692 — Starlin Castro batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.256, 0.690 — Dee Gordon batting against David Price.
0.260, 0.685 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Felix Hernandez.

Altuve pops to the top against Frankie Montas. Montas is off to a good start this season, but his career is a rather small sample size. He greatly reduced his ERA despite cutting down on strikeouts. He instead concentrated on preventing walks and home runs. Right now, the NN sees him as a slightly better than league average pitcher in terms of hit average, while Altuve is way above average. I would think that Montas pitching to contact would be good for Altuve, and Montas does give up a high percentage of line drives. I suspect Montas is due for a correction, we just don’t know when.

Altuve is the consensus first pick, with Parra and Blackmon the consensus second choices.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

August 1, 2016

Another Arm for the Dodgers to Break

The Dodgers acquired Rich Hill and Josh Reddick from the Oakland Athletics for three pitchers:

The Dodgers acquired starting pitcher Rich Hill and outfielder Josh Reddick from Oakland on Monday for a package of young pitchers Grant Holmes, Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton, ranked fifth, eighth and 13th in the Dodgers’ system by MLBPipeline.com, according to a baseball source.

At seasonal age 36, Hill is having a great season, posting a 2.25 ERA in 76 innings with a very high strikeout rate. Reddick is getting on base way above his career .317 average. The Athletics were certainly selling high here. The three pitchers they received all strike out batters at a high rate and are pretty good at preventing home runs. Each might walk a few too many batters. All in all, Oakland did a good job of restocking their young pitching talent by trading two overachieving players.