Tag Archives: Cody Reed

April 22, 2017

Games of the Day

The Cubs and Reds get the day started with Jake Arrieta facing Cody Reed. The Cubs lead the Reds by 0.5 games in the NL Central. Arrieta is off to a good start, posting a 2.89 ERA with a high strikeout rate. About the only way to score against him is with a home run, as five of his seven runs allowed were driven in with dingers. Reed makes his first start of the season after appearing four times in relief. He allowed 12 home runs in 47 2/3 innings as a starter in 2016, with a high walk rate. The high walk rate remains, but he has yet to allow a home run in 2017.

The Nationals continue their series against the Mets with Gio Gonzalez battling Jacob deGrom. deGrom was supposed to pitch on Friday, but was pushed back due to a stiff neck. We’ll see if he starts in this game. Gonzalez has yet to allow a hit with runners in scoring position, batters going 0 for 14 with a walk and an RBI. The two home runs he allowed were both solo shots.

Finally, Houston continues their series with the Rays as Charlie Morton takes on Blake Snell. Batters are doing a good job of starting an offensive sequence against Morton, as they post an OBP of .441 against him with the bases empty. Batters don’t finish it well, however, as Morton allows a .182/.263/.303 slash line with men on base so far in 2017. Snell is the opposite. He walked 10 batters in 16 innings, helping him to an overall .306 OBP. But with the bases empty, that drops to .238. Batters don’t get on against him, but when they do, the subsequent hitters post a .250/.400/.375 slash line. They keep the line moving once they get the chance.

Enjoy!

June 18, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda
0.323 — Daniel Murphy batting against Colin Rea
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Adrian Sampson
0.304 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields
0.299 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.299 — Carlos Beltran batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.296 — Didi Gregorius batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.296 — Yunel Escobar batting against Zachary Neal
0.295 — Jose Altuve batting against Cody Reed

Bogaerts and Altuve are so good, they make the list against pitchers in the major league debuts, who rate as league average in this system. Adrian Sampson is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, so batters put the ball in play against him. That the kind of pitcher who might allow a good number of hits. In three seasons at AAA he allowed 307 hits in 262 innings. Reed is a high K, high walk pitcher, so there are going to be fewer chances for batters to put the ball in play against him.

Here is the NN top ten:

0.295, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Cody Reed.
0.289, 0.740 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Moore.
0.305, 0.740 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.331, 0.739 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda.
0.323, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Colin Rea.
0.275, 0.736 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Boyd.
0.274, 0.732 — Robinson Cano batting against Rick Porcello.
0.304, 0.730 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields.
0.283, 0.726 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd.
0.255, 0.726 — Josh Harrison batting against Jon Lester.

NN with Park produces these results:

0.295, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Cody Reed.
0.305, 0.704 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.331, 0.703 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda.
0.275, 0.700 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Boyd.
0.323, 0.698 — Daniel Murphy batting against Colin Rea.
0.274, 0.698 — Robinson Cano batting against Rick Porcello.
0.289, 0.697 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Moore.
0.304, 0.693 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields.
0.283, 0.690 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd.
0.269, 0.690 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Edinson Volquez.

The NN likes Lorenzo Cain more than log5, and the NN with Park likes him even better. Bogaerts and Nunez seem to be the consensus picks.