For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.337 — Luis Arraez batting against Glenn Sparkman.
• 0.330 — Tim Anderson batting against Tyler J Alexander.
• 0.328 — Harold Castro batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.323 — Victor Reyes batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.322 — Donovan Solano batting against Max Fried.
• 0.313 — Hanser Alberto batting against Justus Sheffield.
• 0.311 — Ketel Marte batting against Cal Quantrill.
• 0.311 — Eddie Rosario batting against Glenn Sparkman.
• 0.309 — Jorge Polanco batting against Glenn Sparkman.
• 0.305 — Wilmer Flores batting against Cal Quantrill.
• 0.304 — Kevin Newman batting against Zach Davies.

Marte is not officially on the illjured list, but it looks like he’s not playing the rest of the season, so I took the list out to eleven. Sparkman allows few walks, doesn’t strike out many batters, and gives up home runs at a high rate. This should be a good day for the Twins batters.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.301, 0.752 — Howie Kendrick batting against Elieser Hernandez.
• 0.337, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Glenn Sparkman.
• 0.330, 0.748 — Tim Anderson batting against Tyler J Alexander.
• 0.313, 0.745 — Hanser Alberto batting against Justus Sheffield.
• 0.297, 0.739 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
• 0.328, 0.737 — Harold Castro batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.322, 0.735 — Donovan Solano batting against Max Fried.
• 0.303, 0.734 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Zach Davies.
• 0.304, 0.733 — Kevin Newman batting against Zach Davies.
• 0.293, 0.732 — Giovanny Urshela batting against T.J. Zeuch.

During the Nationals broadcast Friday night there was a very good discussion of Kendrick’s season. They showed a graphic of highest batting averages at age 35, and Kendrick was up there with Ted Williams, Tony Gwynn, and Ichiro Suzuki. They noted that part of that is on Dave Martinez, who picks and chooses when Kendrick starts to keep him fresh. Kendrick, they said, admitted that he can no longer play every day. If you pick Kendrick, make sure he is actually in the starting lineup.

Arraez is the consensus first pick, Anderson the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!