The Evil Player program selected John Grabow as Sunday’s evil player. Grabow comes into action Sunday with an evil 8.44 ERA. He walking a high number of batters, which is usual for him, but his high strikeout rate usually means few hits. That’s not happening this year, as opponents, especially right handers, hit .343 against him. Even without walks, that would be a high OPB, and with the power behind those hits, Grabow’s season so far is a disaster.
John Grabow pitches in relief for the Chicago Cubs. Grabow improved the last two seasons. Prior to 2008, his opposition slash line came in at .277/.350/.419, and he posted a 4.61 ERA. Over the last two seasons, his slash line is down to .224/.321/.339, with a drop in ERA to 3.09. The really interesting twist on these numbers is that his strikeout and walk rates got worse. Normally, a lower K per 9 rate leads to more hits, not many fewer. You can see it in his FIP, which hasn’t changed much at all.
Why the decline in batting average? One possibility is better defense. The Pirates played well in 2009, but the Cubs didn’t, and the Pirates didn’t play well in 2008. More likely, Grabow became tougher to hit. Note that in 2008, John reduced the emphasis on his slider in favor of his change-up. That new pitch mix may have fooled batters enough that they no longer get good wood on the ball. If so, the Cubs picked up a pretty good reliever.