Tag Archives: Thairo Estrada

February 13, 2025

Changes, Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

I looked it up to make sure, but the Rockies finished with the lowest winning percentage in the NL in 2024, a .377 mark. I have to say it’s unusual for a last place team to stand pat like that.

After two good years at the plate, Estrada suffered two wrist injuries in 2024 and his offense plummeted. He is capable of producing two to three WAR if healthy. Farmer serves as the slick fielding infielder, although he’s not terrible at the plate. He gives the Rockies a good defensive replacement, or a starter when a low K pitcher is on the mound.

Colorado did little to make the team more exciting for 2025.

June 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log 5 Method yields these top batter versus pitcher hit average predictions:

It looks like a good day for the Giants as Nelson allowed 58 hits in 40 1/3 innings. He is a low walk, low K pitcher so plenty of balls get put in play against him. Estrada is listed as day to day, so make sure he is playing if you make that pick. Note that in their few appearances against Nelson, Conforto hit him better than Estrada.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.286, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.291, 0.694 — Luis Rengifo batting against Matt Waldron.
  • 0.271, 0.693 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.314, 0.691 — Thairo Estrada batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.301, 0.691 — Adley Rutschman batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.295, 0.685 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.294, 0.682 — Jake Fraley batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.265, 0.681 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.283, 0.680 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.290, 0.679 — Jordan Westburg batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.311, 0.679 — Patrick Bailey batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.267, 0.679 — Jeremy Pena batting against Kyle Gibson.

Once again, Arraez is the only batter with a very high probability of a hit. Estrada comes out as the consensus top pick, with Rutschman the consensus double down choice. Note that Arraez left the game on Sunday with an injury, but says he’s okay.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 5, 2024

Western Walk Offs

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The Giants beat the Padres 3-2 in San Francisco’s home opener. Thairo Estrada had gone 0 for 4 in each of his last three games, and was 0 for 3 in this game when he came up with Matt Chapman on base after a hit by pitch. Estrada doubled Chapman home, and the Giants and their fans enjoyed a walk-off celebration.

The Rockies hosted the Rays in the Denver home opener. The Rays were down 6-2 going into the ninth, but scored five times to take a 7-6 lead into the bottom of the inning. Rockies drew three consecutive walks to start the inning and load the bases. Kris Bryant struck out, but Ryan McMahon launched a grand slam to win the game 10-7.

That’s the way to make the home town fans happy.

May 20, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Estrada, at seasonal age 27, is posting the best offensive year of his career. He doesn’t walk much, so his .361 OBP is very highly influenced by his .312 BA. The big difference this season comes from his .376 BABIP. His career average on that stat is .303.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.324, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.321, 0.733 — Bo Bichette batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.312, 0.722 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.325, 0.717 — Thairo Estrada batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.308, 0.713 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Noah Syndergaard.
  • 0.322, 0.711 — Riley Greene batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.277, 0.702 — Tim Anderson batting against Jordan Lyles.
  • 0.291, 0.702 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.273, 0.701 — Joey Meneses batting against Alex Faedo.
  • 0.272, 0.697 — Nico Hoerner batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.271, 0.697 — Harold Ramirez batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.279, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.

It will be tough to supplant Arraez at the top of this list until his batting average falls closer to his career average. He went three for four Friday night to raise his BA to .388 and his BABIP to .406. If he can keep that BABIP high and hit a few home runs to counter his low number of Ks, it would go a long way towards him hitting .400 for the season. The power he showed in the World Baseball Classic has not carried over into the regular season.

Arraez is the consensus top pick, Estrada the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 12, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

At seasonal age 27, the usual peak for batters, Estrada is easily have his best year. He ranks fourth in the NL in batting average, and is 62 points above his career mark.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.304, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Graham Ashcraft.
  • 0.300, 0.718 — Nick Castellanos batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.284, 0.707 — Trea Turner batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.305, 0.702 — Thairo Estrada batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.288, 0.699 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.279, 0.696 — Alex Verdugo batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.274, 0.694 — Joey Meneses batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.264, 0.690 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against James Paxton.
  • 0.267, 0.687 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.249, 0.680 — Tim Anderson batting against J.P. France.

Arraez fell below .400 after Wednesday’s game, and his BA now stands at .398. We’ll see if a day off and a return home can help him get back over the magic mark. He is the consensus top pick, with Estrada and Castellanos tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 27, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks:

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

At seasonal age 27, Estrada plays in his peak year and is making the most of it early. He does strike out, but still manages to put the ball in play with few walks. This season, his BABIP stands at .388, and that helps put him at the top of the list today.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.287, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Wright.
  • 0.287, 0.709 — Trea Turner batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.282, 0.703 — Nico Hoerner batting against Seth Lugo.
  • 0.289, 0.702 — Nick Castellanos batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.296, 0.694 — Ronald Acuna batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.303, 0.691 — Thairo Estrada batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.275, 0.689 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hayden Wesneski.
  • 0.274, 0.689 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.264, 0.687 — Freddie Freeman batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.283, 0.686 — Donovan Solano batting against Zack Greinke.

It’s a similar list with a different ordering. Estrada’s history pulls him down here. Aarraez is the consensus top pick, with Estrada, Turner, and Acuna all tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 25, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Pirates place Reynolds on the bereavement list two days ago, and I don’t know if when they plan to get him back. Arraez missed two games in a row as his finger is still bothering him, so watch the lineups if you choose Arraez.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.296, 0.728 — Luis Arraez batting against Charlie Morton.
  • 0.266, 0.695 — Trea Turner batting against Logan Gilbert.
  • 0.272, 0.695 — Nico Hoerner batting against Blake Snell.
  • 0.268, 0.693 — Harold Ramirez batting against Luis Garcia.
  • 0.265, 0.693 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Clevinger.
  • 0.275, 0.687 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.288, 0.681 — Thairo Estrada batting against Jake Woodford.
  • 0.262, 0.680 — Alex Verdugo batting against Kyle Bradish.
  • 0.271, 0.677 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.264, 0.677 — Luis Robert batting against Jose Berrios.

Arraez is the top pick if he plays. Hoerner would be the consensus double down pick. Estrada would be the double down pick if Arraez doesn’t start, although Trea Turner does very well at extending streaks. Outside of Arraez, it’s not a high probability day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!