For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.333, 0.705 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.331, 0.710 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.323, 0.703 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.308, 0.690 — Victor Robles batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.302, 0.712 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.301, 0.665 — Jorge Polanco batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.299, 0.707 — Jake Mangum batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.297, 0.710 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.296, 0.701 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Janson Junk.
- 0.293, 0.713 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Louie Varland.
The Mariners just clinched the division, and they are in an excellent spot for a first round bye. It’s not clear if they give the regulars a day off, or if they keep pushing for the top slot in the American League, as they are one game behind the Yankees and Blue Jays. Maybe it’s a day to go with the Rays.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.278, 0.716 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Framber Valdez.
- 0.293, 0.713 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Louie Varland.
- 0.302, 0.712 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.297, 0.710 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.272, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Braxton Ashcraft.
- 0.331, 0.710 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.299, 0.707 — Jake Mangum batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.333, 0.705 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.323, 0.703 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.296, 0.701 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Janson Junk.
It’s almost an inverted list compared to the Log5 standings. Naylor and Simpson tie for the consensus top pick. Wilson is three for six with no Ks and no BBs in his brief career against Valdez.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!