Tag Archives: Yusei Kikuchi

August 4, 2025

Games of the Day

Max Fried tries to stop the Yankees slide as he takes on Wild Card hopeful Texas and Patrick Corbin. Fried reached 12 wins for the fourth time in his career, and needs six more to set a single season high. He walked just 32 batters in 134 innings. Corbin, freed from the yoke of the Nationals, put together a decent year. His hits allowed per nine innings is down to 8.78 after being well over ten in each of the past five seasons.

The Rays and Angels offer the best pitching matchup of the day as Adrian Houser faces Yusei Kikuchi. Houser makes his first start for the Rays after going 6-2 with a 2.10 ERA for poor White Sox team. With a 3.30 ERA, Kikuchi pitched better than his 4-7 record. He averages 5 2/3 innings per start, making it difficult for him to hang around long enough to get credit for wins. The team is 11-12 overall in his starts.

Enjoy!

February 16, 2025

Changes, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Jorge Soler, designated hitter
Yoan Moncada, third baseman
Tim Anderson, shortstop
Travis d’Arnaud, catcher
J.D. Davis, first and third base
Kevin Newman, infield
Yusei Kikuchi, starting pitcher
Kyle Hendricks, starting pitcher
Kenley Jansen, closer
Garrett McDaniels, relief pitcher

McDaniels, a rule five draft choice, is the only acquisition without MLB experience. He enters his prime years this season, with good strikeout and walk rates in the minors.

Otherwise, these acquisitions could be a throwback to the Gene Autry era, when the Angels acquired names rather than ability. Davis, d’Arnaud, and Newman take backup roles, but I suspect that most fans have a positive impression of d’Arnaud and Davis. Soler and Anderson both had big seasons in the past. Moncada appears to be a last minute replacement for the injured Anthony Rendon.

Kikuchi and Hendricks are certainly well known, while Jansen is a bit of a Los Angeles area hero. None of this group is young. Moncada the youngest will play 2025 as a 30 year old. In other words, the expectation for each of these players is a decline from their recent history. Those nine players project to about eight WAR combined. That’s not going to put LAnaheim in contention.

They have some name that fans might come to see. They all strike me as place holders until the Angels farm system produces some talent.

December 27, 2024

Understanding Pitch Values

Tom Tango posts a very nice explanation of the measure of a particular pitch. He breaks out wOBA, which only gets calculated on the final pitch, versus the run value, which is calculated on all pitches of that type. He gives the example of Yusei Kikuchi and his four seam fastball. Overall, the pitch is a net positive for Kikuchi, but on balls in play, it is well below average.

This brings up a larger problem in measuring pitch effectiveness. We are not in a One-Punch Man Universe:

Each separate attack must be delivered with intent to kill.

That’s not how a plate appearance works. Pitchers and catcher have a plan for each hitter. In most cases, the first three pitches likely are not designed to defeat the batter, but to put the batter in a situation where he can be defeated. In many cases, the fastball is used to prime the batter to be defeated by an off-speed pitch.

So when we measure wOBA on pitches, we don’t know the intent of the pitch. I suspect the data is telling us that Kikuchi does a good job using his fastball to set up batters. Some batters are not going to go for the setup, however, and recognize the fastball in that situation and put it in play to good results.

Note that it’s difficult to infer intent. Even on a 3-2 pitch, if a base is open, the pitcher may be willing to sacrifice a walk rather than give a batter a pitch in the strike zone. It’s possible that a pitch with a low run value might in fact be valuable to in the chain of pitches that leads to an out.

November 25, 2024

Kikuchi Cash

The Angels agreed to sign Yusei Kikuchi to a three season, $63 million contract:

Overall, he had a 4.05 ERA in 2024, making 32 starts split between the two teams. He made 32 starts in 2023 as well while appearing in 32 games in 2022 and 29 games in 2021. That durability undoubtedly helped secure his current deal with the Angels.

The six-year veteran will be joining his fourth team after breaking into the big leagues with the Seattle Mariners in 2019. His best season came in 2023 when he went 11-6 with a 3.86 ERA for the Blue Jays, helping them make the postseason. His contributions to the Astros last season also helped them reach the postseason, something his new team hasn’t done since 2014.
ESPN.com

In 2023, Kikuchi reduced his walk rate to a very good 2.58 per nine innings, and continued that into 2024 with a rate of 2.25 BB per 9 IP. That made him worth 7.9 WAR over the two seasons. The Angels are paying him for about two WAR a season, which seems rather doable.

July 29, 2024

Astros Say Kikuchi

It looks like the Astros landed Yusei Kikuchi in a deal with the Blue Jays:

Just as Jake Bloss was scratched from his start on Monday night, multiple reports surfaced that the rookie right-hander will be involved in a trade for Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. According to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, additional prospects will be included in the deal.

Stay tuned for details.

May 15, 2024

Games of the Day

Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Bradish square off as the Blue Jays play and early game in Baltimore. The Orioles knocked around Kikuchi in his career, tagging him for eleven home runs in 49 2/3 innings. Bradish brings a 1.86 ERA into the game, having struck out 14 batters in 9 2/3 innings.

The Rockies send Austin Gomber against the Padres and Michael King. Gomber pitched well this season, and held San Diego to one run in five innings in Colorado earlier this year. King strikes out a lot of batters, but that is tempered by high walk and home run rates.

The Cubs send Javier Assad against the Braves and Charlie Morton. Assad, in his third season, owns a very respectable 10-5 record with a 2.76 ERA. He does a great job of limiting hits despite not overpowering batters with Ks. He just passed 2000 innings for his career, ranking 41st with most innings pitched this century.

Enjoy!

May 10, 2024

Games of the Day

The Cubs travel to Pittsburgh as Javier Assad takes on Jared Jones. Assad’s 1.66 ERA ranks third in the NL and second on the Cubs to the 1.08 mark of Shota Imanaga. Jones is off to a great start in his rookie season, with 52 strikeouts and just five walks in 41 innings.

Joe Ryan leads the hot Twins agains the Blue Jays and Yusei Kikuchi. Ryan pitched better than his 3.54 ERA, with 10.2 K per 9 IP and 1.3 BB per 9 IP. Three of the five home runs he allowed came with men on base. Kikuchi lowered his walk rate last year, and now with a lower home run rate to go with it brought his ERA under 3.00.

Andrew Abbott faces Logan Webb as the Reds play in San Francisco. Batters are finding it tougher to hit line drives against Abbott this season, leading to nearly a 50 point drop in his BABIP. Webb’s low K rate and high BABIP have not hurt him much this season as he greatly reduced his home runs allowed.

Enjoy!

April 22, 2024

Games of the Day

The Tigers visit the Rays with Tarik Skubal facing Zack Littell. Skubal sports a deadly combination of a high strikeout rate with a low BABIP of .207. Littell’s BABIP comes in at .361, but most of the hits against him came without runners in scoring position.

Yusei Kikuchi and Brady Singer square off in Kansas City as the Blue Jays play the Royals. Kikuchi appears to have added a curve ball to his pitches, throwing the slider less. He’s only allowed one home run as his groundball rate went up. Singer’s BABIP early in the season stands at .182, a big reason he allowed just 13 hits in 23 1/3 innings. He’s throwing more four-seam fastballs this season, giving his opponents a new look.

Enjoy!

April 16, 2024

Games of the Day

The Giants continue their series at the Marlins with Jordan Hicks against Ryan Weathers. So far, the conversion of Hicks from a reliever to a starter worked well. He pitched eighteen innings in three starts with 1.00 ERA. His strikeout rate is way down, but so is his walk rate. Weathers allowed a .369 OBP so far this season, but the opposition is slugging just .352 against him, so those base runners don’t move very far.

Carlos Rodon faces Yusei Kikuchi as the Yankees and Blue Jays meet under Skydome. Rodon returned to form with a 2.87 ERA through three starts, making it a bit easier for the Yankees to absorb the Gerrit Cole injury. Kikuchi is blowing batters away with twenty strikeouts in his first 15 2/3 innings.

The Cubs play at the Diamondbacks, with rookie Michael Busch on a five-game home run streak. At high altitude in Phoenix, it’s a good day to extend the streak to six.

Dylan Cease leads the Padres against Wade Miley and the Brewers in Milwaukee. Cease comes into the game with a 2.16 ERA as he maintained his high strikeout rate while lowering his walk and home run rates to well below his career averages. Miley did not strike out a batter in his first four innings of work, but used the Milwaukee defense to allow just one hit.

Enjoy!

April 5, 2024

Games of the Day

The Blue Jays visit the Yankees for their home opener as Yusei Kikuchi* faces Marcus Stroman. Kikuchi pitched well in New York in his career, posting a 1.89 ERA in six starts covering 33 1/3 innings. When Stroman pitched for the Blue Jays, he got lit up at Yankee Stadium to the tune of a 6.13 ERA in ten starts and 47 innings.

*And I say “Kik?chi.

The surprising Pirates host the defending AL East champions the Orioles in the Pittsburgh home opener. Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound for Baltimore against Jared Jones. Grayson carried his high K rate from the minors to the majors, but so far his lower HR rate in the minors as not progressed as well. Jones walked two and struck out ten in his first MLB start. He did allow three runs on three hits as two of those hits came with men on base.

The Astros visit the Rangers as the battle for Texas begins. Hunter Brown opposes Cody Bradford. Brown managed to allow just one unearned run in four innings of work in his first outing of the season despite giving up four hits and two walks. Bradford allowed 13 walks and 12 home runs in his short MLB career of 61 innings. The low walk rate probably limited the damage done by his high home run rate, otherwise his 5.16 ERA might be off the charts.

Enjoy!

September 29, 2023

Games of the Day

Tampa Bay and Toronto start what may be a six-game home and home series, as the Blue Jays currently hold the second wild card and would play the Rays in St. Petersburg in the first round. Aaron Civale takes on Yusei Kikuchi in a game more meaningful for the Jays. Civale posted an excellent K/BB since joining the Rays, 55 to 9, but six home runs in 43 2/3 innings helped inflate his ERA to 5.36. Overall he owns a 3.43 ERA on the season. Kikuchi struck out 21 Rays and walked three in 15 innings, but three home runs and 21 hits allowed gives him a 5.40 ERA against Tampa Bay.

Houston sends rookie J.P. France against the Diamondbacks and Zac Gallen. France pitches poorly in terms of three-true outcomes, but allows just a .219 BA with runners in scoring position. Gallen goes for his 18th win against just eight losses. His is 12-2 at home with a 2.45 ERA.

Finally, the Rangers try to eliminate the Mariners from a division championship as they send Nathan Eovaldi against Bryan Woo. Eovaldi won both starts against the Mariners his year, striking out 13 and walking two in eleven innings. Woo pitched decently for a rookie, but was hurt by 13 home runs in 84 innings.

Enjoy!

August 15, 2023

Games of the Day

Two teams in the Wild Card hunt square off in Toronto as Zack Wheeler of the Phillies faces Yusei Kikuchi. Wheeler attempts to reach ten wins for the sixth time in his career. His home runs are up a bit from last season, but he’s showing better control. Kikuchi cutting down on walks reduced his ERA over a run and a half from 2022.

Former teammates face each other for totally different teams as Jack Flaherty of the Orioles takes on Michael Wacha of the Padres. Since joining the Orioles, Flaherty struck out 16 batters in eleven innings. His Ks were below his IPs with the Cardinals. Wacha returns from injury with the best ERA in the majors since May 1st.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2023

Games of the Day

Sonny Gray faces Eduardo Rodriguez as the Twins battle the Tigers. Gray allowed just five home runs this season, owning the lowest HR/9 IP in the majors among those with 100 IP. Rodriguez owns a 2.96 ERA, and turned down a trade to the Dodgers to remain close to home. He allowed just eight home runs in 94 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays take on the Indians with Yusei Kikuchi taking the hill against Tanner Bibee. Kikuchi gives up plenty of home runs, but most of the power against him comes with the bases empty. Batters slug .506 against him with none on, .352 with runners on base. The rookie Bibee owns a 3.14 ERA. He is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA at home. He allowed just one of his ten home runs in Cleveland.

Enjoy!

July 26, 2023

Games of the Day

There a number of early games today, the best pits Bryce Miller of the Mariners against Joe Ryan of the Twins. Miller tries to continue his fine rookie season that so far saw him strike out 64 and walk just 15 in 69 1/3 innings. Ryan is in a bit of a slump, with a 5.75 ERA in his last seven games. His high K rate in that time is not limiting hits.

Toronto sends Yusei Kikuchi against the Dodgers and Tony Gonsolin. A win today would give Kikuchi eight on the season, which would be a new single season high for him. His career suffered from a high home run rate, which continues this season. Gonsolin’s ERA is up over a run from his career average, as his walk and home run rates rose this season.

Finally, two good, young pitchers square off in Boston as Spencer Strider takes on Brayan Bello. Strider owns the highest K rate for any pitcher with at least 250 innings and ten starts since 1969, the year they lowered the mound. Bello improved on his rookie year by cutting down on walks and limiting hits.

Enjoy!

May 24, 2023

Games of the Day

Houston sends Brandon Bielak against Milwaukee and Adrian Houser in an early afternoon game. Bielak owns a 2.89 ERA in 18 2/3 innings despite not pitching very well. He allowed 25 hits, three home runs, and eight walks so far. Only four of those hits came with runners in scoring position, however. Houser makes his fourth start, looking for his first decision. With only 14 2/3 innings under his belt, he’s not staying in the game long enough for his 3.07 ERA to put a win on his record.

At the same time, a little farther west, the Giants send Anthony DeSclafani against the Twins and Joe Ryan. DeSclafani walked just seven in 55 1/3 innings, and his 3-3 record may come from often drawing a good opposition starter. Ryan owns a 6-1 record with his 2.25 ERA walking eight batters in 56 innings.

The early evening features Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays facing Shane McClanahan of the Rays. Kikuchi stands 5-1 despite a 4.08 ERA as the Jays scored at least five runs in his starts seven times. McClanahan leads the majors in Tom Tango Cy Young Points and Bill James Cy Young Points.

Finally, Tony Gonsolin and Bryce Elder battle as the Dodgers and Braves play in Atlanta. Gonsolin allowed six runs in 24 innings, but only half of them were earned, leading to his 1.13 ERA. Opponents dinged him for just 13 hits. Elder holds a 2.06 ERA with the same number of hits and strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings, 45 each.

Enjoy!

May 19, 2023

Games of the Day

The Blue Jays trail the Orioles by three games as the teams open a three-game series in Toronto. Kyle Gibson facing Yusei Kikuchi. Gibson gives up hits at a high rate due to a low K rate. That is some compensated by a low walk rate. Kikuchi stands undefeated in eight starts at 5-0. He’s given up eleven home runs in 41 2/3 innings, but the Blue Jays scored at least five runs in seven of his eight starts.

It’s the battle of the Bryces in Atlanta as Bryce Miller of the Mariners takes on Bryce Elder of the Braves. Miller makes his fourth MLB start, and only allowed one walk and no home runs in his first nineteen innings. Elder owns a 1.94 ERA in 46 1/3 innings this season. He is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA on the road. With a 1.96 ERA at home, he has yet to record a decision, however.

Enjoy!

May 14, 2023

Games of the Day

The Braves send Collin McHugh against the Blue Jays and Yusei Kikuchi. McHugh makes his first start of the season. He was a regular in the Houston rotation from 2014-2017, but only made 15 starts since. He allowed 16 hits this season in 13 1/3 innings, but none of them were home runs. Kikuchi stands 5-0 in seven starts, and owns a 3.35 ERA despite allowing eight home runs in 37 2/3 innings. Six of the eight came with the bases empty, and he allows a .087 (2/23) BA with runners in scoring position.

Hunter Brown faces Lucas Giolito as the Astros battle the White Sox. Brown owns a 3.23 ERA in seven starts, but pitched just 39 innings. He is the opposite of Kikuchi. It’s difficult to get on against Brown, but once on opponents hit .316/.409/.421. Giolito had a rough outing early, but since 4/12 he owns a 2-2 record with a 2.33 ERA. He allowed just 25 hits in 38 2/3 innings in that stretch.

The Dodgers go for a sweep of the visiting Padres as San Diego sends Ryan Weathers against Tony Gonsolin. Weathers uses his defense as he walked five and struck out 11 in 18 innings pitched. It works, as he owns a 2.50 so far. Gonsolin dominated the Padres in his career, 4-0 in six appearances with a 1.45 ERA. He allowed just 18 hits and four walks in 31 innings.

Enjoy!

April 9, 2023

Games of the Day

The Yankees and Orioles battle in Baltimore with Nestor Cortes taking on Tyler Wells. Cortes owns a 2.60 ERA since the start of the 2021 season thanks in large part to a 0.99 WHIP. Wells pitched five hitless innings of relief in his first appearance of the season. With a low for the era strikeout rate, Wells limits hits, giving up just 130 in 165 2/3 career innings.

Toronto sends Yusei Kikuchi against the Angels and Reid Detmers. Kikuchi has yet to post a season ERA under 4.00 in his career, as he tends to give up lots of home runs. He allowed just one run in his first start of the season, and than was on a solo homer. Detmers in his career owns odd FIP numbers. His FIP is lower than his ERA, but his xFIP is about the same amount higher than his xFIP (which takes into account the types of balls in play). It seems the average of the two is a better predictor of Detmers’s era.

Finally, Seth Lugo of the Padres faces rookie Dylan Dodd of the Braves on Sunday Night Baseball. Lugo struck out seven with no walks in his first game of the season, allowing one run in seven innings. Dodd also did not walk a batter in his first five MLB innings, and like Lugo allowed just one run.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2022

Game of the Day

Two games with AL Wild Card impacts take place on Monday. The Blue Jays travel to Baltimore with Yusei Kikuchi taking on Jordan Lyles. Both are prone to giving up the long ball. That might favor Toronto, as the Blue Jays are third in the AL in home runs with 139, while the Orioles are eighth with 110.

The Yankees visit the Mariners with the best pitching match-up of the day as Jameson Taillon faces Logan Gilbert. Taillon owns a 6.25 ERA over his last eight starts. In that time, he allowed ten home runs in 40 1/3 innings. It’s tough to say why Gilbert’s ERA is a run and a half lower than last year, but he has done a bit better with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

May 28, 2022

Games of the Day

The Yankees try to make it three in a row at Tampa Bay as Gerrit Cole takes on Corey Kluber. This would have been a better matchup in 2018. From 2014 through 2018, these were two of dominant pitchers in the game, both doing a great job at limiting home runs. This season, Cole keeps his walks low, while Kluber thrives at home.

Tony Gonsolin tries to remain undefeated as the Dodgers face the Diamondbacks and Merrill Kelly. Gonsolin sports a 1.62 ERA, but is a few innings short of qualifying for the ERA leaderboard as averages a bit less than five innings per start. Kelly cut his home run rate about 2/3 compared to 2021, lowering his ERA by a run.

Toronto sends Yusei Kikuchi (and I say ta-mah-toe) against the Angels and Michael Lorenzen. Kikuchi walked 23 batters in 36 1/3 innings, but kept his ERA low by allowing a .184 BA with runners in scoring position. With all the base runners, the Blue Jays only turned two double plays behind him. That’s even more remarkable as Kikuchi does generate a high rate of ground balls. Lorenzen also generates a high ground ball rate. His OBP against is just .284, but the Angels turned eight GDPs behind him.

May 4, 2022

Games of the Day

Dillon Peters opens for the Pirates against the Tigers against Michael Pineda in game one of their doubleheader. Peters make his second start of the season, and while he won’t get the win today, he is 3-0 in his six relief appearances. In 13 1/3 innings he allowed just one hit. Pineda has yet to allow a walk in his ten innings this season.

The Yankees try to make it a dozen wins in a row as they face the Blue Jays. Nestor Cortes takes on Yusei Kikuchi. The match-up offers a contrast in control Cortes walked three and struck out 28 in 20 2/3 innings, good for a 1.31 ERA. Kikuchi walked 13 and struck out 13 in 14 2/3 innings for a 5.52 ERA.

Enjoy!

March 12, 2022

Front-Loading Kikuchi

The Blue Jays signed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $36 million contract. The contract is front loaded, paying $16 million the first year:

As for the structure of the deal, it’s worth pointing out that the Blue Jays also front-loaded their contract with George Springer. This seems to be a way of taking advantage of the fact that most of the club’s core players are still working their way through arbitration and will only get increasingly expensive in the coming years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is arbitration eligible for the first time this year as a Super Two player. Teoscar Hernandez will be playing his second of three arbitration seasons in 2022. Bo Bichette and Jordan Romano won’t be arbitration-eligible until next year. By paying Springer and Kikuchi more now, the club will have a little bit extra wiggle room to weather the increasing salaries of those players in the coming seasons.
YardBarker.com

Most teams back-load deals, so they pay more money later, but with inflated dollars. Also, the player may wind up traded, and the acquiring team will pay some of that contract. The Jays appear to be setting themselves up to pay their big four very well.

September 6, 2021

Games of the Day

The Blue Jays fly to New York to open a four game series with the Yankees. Toronto owns a four game winning streak and stands fourth in the AL Wild Card race, four games behind the leading Yankees. Hyun Jin Ryu faces Jameson Taillon. Ryu pitched well against the Yankees this season, 1-0 in three starts with a 2.50 ERA. He allowed just 13 hits in 18 innings. Taillon pitched seven excellent starts in a row starting in July, but owns an 8.20 ERA in his last four starts as home run balls haunt him.

The Phillies send Zack Wheeler against Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers as Philadelphia fights for a playoff slot and the Brewers try to gain the best record in the NL. Wheeler allowed just 40 walks in 182 2/3 innings, helping him to a WHIP of 1.02. Woodruff also allowed 40 walks, but in 157 1/3 innings. His hit total is so low, his WHIP stands at 0.94.

The Mariners won five in a row as they also take aim at the AL Wild Card leaders. Yusei Kikuchi faces the Astros and Lance McCullers Jr. Kikuchi ranks fourth in the majors in highest HR/9 IP. The Astros hit four of those 26 dingers, but are hitting just .231 against him overall. McCullers allowed just 11 home runs in 132 1/3 innings, but two of those came off the bats of Mariners hitters.

Enjoy!

August 20, 2021

Games of the Day

The Mariners sit five and one half games behind the Astros in the AL West as the teams meet in Houston for the start of a three-game series. The Mariners have a chance to gain ground in the west as they follow this series with two games at Oakland. Yusei Kikuchi takes the hill tonight against Lance McCullers Jr. Kikuchi tends to give up home runs, but in 19 innings against the Astros this season he allowed just one long ball. McCullers owns a 3.72 ERA at home versus 2.75 on the road. His strikeout rate is much lower in Houston for some reason.

Tyler Gilbert of the Diamondbacks makes his second start, this time against Austin Gomber of the Rockies. Gilbert will have a tough time topping his first start, a no-hitter against the Padres. So far, Gilbert allowed just two hits in 12 2/3 MLB innings. He might find Colorado a tougher place to limit hits. Gomber is another Rockies pitcher who adapted well to the high altitude, with a 1.70 ERA at home versus 5.80 on the road. He struck out 63 batters in 59 innings at home, just 37 in 42 1/3 innings on the road.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2021

Games of the Day

The Yankees go for a sweep of the four-game series* against the Mariners, the first three games all decided by one or two runs. Yusei Kikuchi takes on Luis Gil. Kikuchi allowed 22 home runs in 120 1/3 innings this season, and that will play into a Yankees strength. Gil makes the second start of his career after pitching six shutout innings in an emergency start on Tuesday.

*The performance of this Yankees team reminded me of the 1978 squad. That was a good team that didn’t play poorly during the first few months of the season, but did underperform. The catalyst for the comeback there came from changing managers. The catalyst here came from very good trade deadline deals. That season also involved a Red Sox collapse.

The Phillies go for a three-game sweep of the Mets. It’s feet versus rims as Taijuan Walker faces Zack Wheeler. Walker pitched worse on the road this season, where his walk and home runs rates are higher than at Citi Field. Wheeler owns a 2.22 ERA at home where he walked just 14 batters in 89 innings.

Enjoy!

August 3, 2021

Games of the Day

The Mariners visit the Rays in a game important in the AL Wild Card race. Seattle is three games out of the second wild card slot, and beating a good team like the Rays will show that they can compete with the elite of the AL. Yusei Kikuchi takes on Luis Patino. Kikuchi’s good strikeout rate is not enough to cover for his extremely high home run rate. Since the start of the 2019 season, he ranks fifth in the majors in home runs per nine innings. Patino is no stranger to home runs either, having allowed 24 dingers in his 49 MLB innings. It might be a slugfest tonight in Florida.

The Astros visit the Dodgers, and from what I’m reading, Dodgers fans can’t wait to razz the visitors about their cheating scandal. It’s also the best pitching match-up of the day as Lance McCullers Jr.takes on Walker Buehler. McCullers serves the part of road warrior this season, 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA away from Houston. He struck out 64 batters in 46 2/3 innings in those games. Buehler is 6-1 at home with a 2.21 ERA, although 10 of his 13 home runs allowed came in Dodger Stadium.

Enjoy!

July 1, 2021

Games of the Day

The early afternoon features the Mariners at the Blue Jays in Buffalo as Yusei Kikuchi takes on Hyun Jin Ryu. For the most park, Kikuchi pitches well at home or on the road, but his ERA stands about a run lower on the road this year, 3.86 versus 2.89. Opponents are just 2 for 22 against him on the road with runners in scoring position. Ryu continues to be great at limiting walks, with 19 BB in 89 2/3 innings in 2021, 200 in 897 innings for his career.

The Twins send ace Jose Berrios against the White Sox and one of their aces, Carlos Rodon. Berrios stands 7-2 on a team with a .433 winning percentage and has not lost a game since April. Rodon is nearly unhittable this season as opponents slash just .169/.248/.277 against him.

Finally, the Mets and Braves follow up Atlanta’s 20-2 victory with Jacob deGrom facing Ian Anderson. It is unlikely deGrom blows a lead with his 0.69 ERA as he celebrates his Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month award. Anderson owns a bit of a reverse platoon split this season as right-handed batters hit .236 against him while lefties hit just .202 against the RHP.

Enjoy!

June 25, 2021

Games of the Day

It’s tough to pick out a great pitching match-up today. The Yankees visit Boston for the first time this season, the Red Sox sweeping the Yankees earlier this month in The Bronx. Domingo German takes on Martin Perez. German’s ERA is a run lower on the road compared to home, due to his ability to keep the ball in the park away from Yankee Stadium. He allowed 12 home runs in New York in 34 2/3 innings, two on the road in 34 1/3 innings. Perez has a similar attribute, with six of his eight home runs coming at Fenway Park, so being on the road for this game may not help German.

The Mariners send Yusei Kikuchi against the White Sox and Carlos Rodon. Kikuchi allowed 13 home runs in 80 2/3 innings, but not much else. Opponents own a .198/.266/.355 slash line against him, so the extra-base hits don’t do much damage. Rodon is now the leader in average outs before allowing a hit this season, 7.75. You can see his extremely low batting averages allowed by inning here.

Enjoy!

April 23, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

0.294 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.279 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zack Greinke.
0.274 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luke Weaver.
0.273 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.273 — Alex Verdugo batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.267 — Omar Narvaez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.265 — Rafael Devers batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.262 — Tim Anderson batting against Dane Dunning.
0.261 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Logan Allen.
0.261 — David Fletcher batting against Zack Greinke.

It looks like a good day to pick players from the Red Sox. Kikuchi allows a high number of hits without walking a lot of players. He also gives up power, and the game is in Fenway.

Here are the NN picks:

0.294, 0.717 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.262, 0.712 — Tim Anderson batting against Dane Dunning.
0.279, 0.705 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zack Greinke.
0.261, 0.695 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Logan Allen.
0.273, 0.688 — Alex Verdugo batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.259, 0.683 — Michael Brantley batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.274, 0.677 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luke Weaver.
0.273, 0.676 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.265, 0.676 — Rafael Devers batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.259, 0.675 — Jean Segura batting against German Marquez.
0.246, 0.675 — Donovan Solano batting against Sandy Alcantara.

The two systems agree on Bogaerts as the top pick, with Jose Iglesias the double down choice. Note that Acuna remains day to day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 25, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Howie Kendrick batting against Drew Smyly.
0.328 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.325 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.325 — Jose Altuve batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.322 — Kevin Newman batting against Jon Lester.
0.321 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jon Lester.
0.320 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.317 — Luis Arraez batting against Daniel Norris.
0.317 — Ozzie Albies batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.316 — Ketel Marte batting against Michael Wacha.
0.312 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Yusei Kikuchi.

Looks like it might be a good night for the Astros as they battle for the top spot in the American League. They lead the Yankees by 1 1/2 games with a game in hand. Kikuchi’s opposition batting line stands at .298/.351/.545.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.334, 0.769 — Howie Kendrick batting against Drew Smyly.
0.328, 0.746 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.325, 0.745 — Jose Altuve batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.325, 0.742 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.322, 0.741 — Kevin Newman batting against Jon Lester.
0.320, 0.741 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.321, 0.741 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jon Lester.
0.317, 0.739 — Luis Arraez batting against Daniel Norris.
0.316, 0.732 — Ketel Marte batting against Michael Wacha.
0.288, 0.729 — Hanser Alberto batting against Jacob Waguespack.
0.288, 0.726 — Tim Anderson batting against Shane Bieber.

The two systems are in fine agreement today, with Kendrick and Brantley the top two picks.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!