Tag Archives: Yunel Escobar

April 17, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez
0.281 — Yunel Escobar batting against Charlie Morton
0.279 — Francisco Lindor batting against Kyle Gibson
0.275 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver
0.273 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.272 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Ivan Nova
0.272 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova
0.271 — Dee Gordon batting against Ariel Miranda
0.266 — Wil Myers batting against Jaime Garcia
0.265 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ariel Miranda
0.265 — Carlos Beltran batting against Jesse Chavez

On a day without Daniel Murphy, Jose Altuve returns to the top of the pack. Altuve is 7 for 20 against Chavez with no walks or other non-AB plate appearances, so that’s also his hit average against Chavez. Yunel Escobar keeps coming up on these lists. He’s putting together a very good run for someone in his middle 30s, basically peaking very late. Again, he is a good batter for this type of analysis as he owns a high batting average in that time and doesn’t walk all that much. Most of his high OBP comes from his hits. Francisco Lindor is tied with three others for the longest current hit streak in the majors at 10.

The NN with Park creates this list:

0.282, 0.715 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.281, 0.703 — Yunel Escobar batting against Charlie Morton.
0.271, 0.702 — Dee Gordon batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.279, 0.701 — Francisco Lindor batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.275, 0.701 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver.
0.273, 0.693 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.262, 0.692 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.265, 0.691 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.244, 0.685 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Blake Snell.
0.272, 0.685 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.

There is perfect agreement for the one and two slots, and in general between the two lists. Corey Seager and Xander Bogaerts do make the cut here, while they didn’t by the Log5 method. Note that the probabilities are pretty low today, compared to what gets generated when Murphy bats.

As always, there is a fairly high probability (>25%) that the best pick of the day won’t get a hit. This is meant to be a guide, a starting point for your research. Good luck!

April 13, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.298 — Corey Seager batting against Brett Anderson
0.286 — Justin Turner batting against Brett Anderson
0.278 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Brett Anderson
0.278 — Ian Kinsler batting against Phil Hughes
0.276 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.273 — Starlin Castro batting against Matt Andriese
0.273 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Gsellman
0.272 — Nick Castellanos batting against Phil Hughes
0.271 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jonathan Gray
0.271 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Phil Hughes

Daniel Murphy gets the day off as Corey Seager moves into the top spot against Brett Anderson. In fact, the Log5 method likes the better hitters on the Dodgers against Anderson. Anderson gives up few walks without a high strikeout rate, so lots of balls in play can turn into hits. Phil Hughes is similar, and I’m not surprised to see a similar type of hitter like Ian Kinsler rank high against him.

The NN with Park produces this top ten list:

0.298, 0.716 — Corey Seager batting against Brett Anderson.
0.271, 0.695 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.273, 0.695 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.278, 0.692 — Ian Kinsler batting against Phil Hughes.
0.259, 0.691 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.266, 0.690 — Dee Gordon batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.286, 0.690 — Justin Turner batting against Brett Anderson.
0.271, 0.688 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Phil Hughes.
0.246, 0.686 — Yunel Escobar batting against Yu Darvish.
0.257, 0.685 — Starling Marte batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.276, 0.685 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Wei-Yin Chen.

The lists are in agreement with Corey Seager at the top of the NN as well. I find the inclusion of Yunel Escobar on the list quite surprising. Note that his expected Log5 hit average against Yu Darvish is just .246. Darvish is a high strikeout pitcher that does not give up many hits. Here is the list of parameters:

[‘0.202’, ‘0.196’, ‘0.249’, ‘0.286’, ‘0.217’, ‘0.227’]

All parameters are hit average, hits/PA. All are regressed toward the 2017 average where appropriate. At this point in the season, the 2017 numbers are highly regressed.

The first two parameters are Darvish in 2017 and 2015-2017 against non-pitchers. Three and four are Escobar in 2017 and 2015-2017. Parameter five is the 2017 MLB average for non-pitchers. The final parameter is the three-year park value for non-pitchers.

It looks to me like the three-year batter hit average dominates the NN. It’s much higher above the league average than Darvish’s numbers are below league average. On a day with few games, that moves him into the top ten.

As always, the best picks on a give day have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 7, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — Yunel Escobar batting against James Paxton
0.315 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman
0.292 — James Loney batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.290 — Andrelton Simmons batting against James Paxton
0.290 — Mike Trout batting against James Paxton
0.289 — Hyun Soo Kim batting against James Shields
0.288 — Corey Seager batting against David Price
0.287 — Manny Machado batting against James Shields
0.287 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Marcus Stroman

Angels hitters against Paxton look like a good bet.

The NN produces this list:

0.315, 0.745 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.281, 0.745 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.282, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.317, 0.736 — Yunel Escobar batting against James Paxton.
0.269, 0.717 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.288, 0.717 — Corey Seager batting against David Price.
0.286, 0.712 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.257, 0.710 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.265, 0.710 — Mookie Betts batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.284, 0.708 — Ryan Braun batting against Archie Bradley.

Paulo Orlando moves to the top, and Altuve makes his daily appearance. Cain and Corey Seager move up as well.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.315, 0.749 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.281, 0.743 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.317, 0.738 — Yunel Escobar batting against James Paxton.
0.282, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.269, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.288, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against David Price.
0.257, 0.718 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286, 0.718 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.267, 0.716 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.265, 0.716 — Martin Prado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.284, 0.715 — Ryan Braun batting against Archie Bradley.
0.265, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Brandon McCarthy.

Orlando, Escobar, and Murphy seem to be the consensus picks. As always, 25% of the time your best pick won’t get a hit. Good luck!

August 4, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.306 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jesse Hahn
0.301 — Paulo Orlando batting against Drew Smyly
0.300 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ
0.295 — Didi Gregorius batting against Bartolo Colon
0.293 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ariel Miranda
0.291 — Starling Marte batting against Tyrell Jenkins
0.288 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake
0.287 — Billy Butler batting against Ricky Nolasco

Ricky Nolasco is becoming less disliked by the Log5 method, although part of it might be he’s pitching against the Athletics.

The NN produces this list:

0.296, 0.755 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ.
0.306, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.301, 0.728 — Paulo Orlando batting against Drew Smyly.
0.293, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.313, 0.724 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.291, 0.720 — Starling Marte batting against Tyrell Jenkins.
0.300, 0.717 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.268, 0.710 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.281, 0.709 — Justin Morneau batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

Altuve and Valencia flip slots here, and Bogaerts moves up as well.

The NN with the park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.296, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ.
0.306, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.313, 0.731 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.301, 0.729 — Paulo Orlando batting against Drew Smyly.
0.293, 0.729 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.300, 0.724 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.291, 0.724 — Starling Marte batting against Tyrell Jenkins.
0.268, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.284, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.281, 0.714 — Justin Morneau batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

The park brings Valencia back near the top. It looks like Altuve, Valencia, and Escobar are the consensus picks. There are a number of noon games today, so get your picks in early! As always, 25% of the time your best pick will take an oh for. Good luck!

July 19, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Peavy
0.316 — Cameron Maybin batting against Tom Milone
0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Dillon Overton
0.310 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Lohse
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Peavy
0.305 — Ian Desmond batting against Tim Lincecum
0.304 — Jurickson Profar batting against Tim Lincecum
0.303 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.302 — Ian Kinsler batting against Tom Milone
0.301 — Sandy Leon batting against Jake Peavy

Log5 likes the Red Sox against Jake Peavy. Jurickson Profar, now than he has well over 100 PA, is starting to creep into the top ten.

The NN produces this list:

0.315, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Dillon Overton.
0.283, 0.750 — Justin Morneau batting against Wade Miley.
0.310, 0.746 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Lohse.
0.316, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Peavy.
0.279, 0.736 — Buster Posey batting against Rick Porcello.
0.275, 0.730 — Robinson Cano batting against Jose Quintana.
0.290, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Kazmir.
0.300, 0.729 — Manny Machado batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.303, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.295, 0.728 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Tom Milone.

It’s the usual cast of characters. I would be wary of Morneau. He has great numbers when you look at him for three years, but he is 1 for 9 in 2016, so the NN still sees him as an average hitter this season. He didn’t hit well in his minor league stint.

Taking the park into account produces this list:

0.315, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Dillon Overton.
0.283, 0.710 — Justin Morneau batting against Wade Miley.
0.310, 0.705 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Lohse.
0.316, 0.703 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Peavy.
0.279, 0.703 — Buster Posey batting against Rick Porcello.
0.280, 0.699 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Blake Snell.
0.308, 0.694 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Peavy.
0.295, 0.693 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Tom Milone.
0.303, 0.693 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.275, 0.690 — Robinson Cano batting against Jose Quintana.

It looks like a typical day, with Altuve, Escobar, and Bogaerts the top picks. As always, your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 17, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl
0.319 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jacob Turner
0.306 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh
0.299 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.298 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray
0.295 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Kuhl
0.293 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha
0.292 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jered Weaver
0.292 — Michael Trout batting against Jacob Turner
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha

Jacob Turner has not pitched in the majors since 2014, and he wasn’t very good then. Daniel Murphy is day-to-day with a hamstring issue, so be careful in selecting him.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.319, 0.764 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jacob Turner.
0.280, 0.746 — Justin Morneau batting against Jered Weaver.
0.256, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.321, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.292, 0.737 — Michael Trout batting against Jacob Turner.
0.283, 0.734 — Buster Posey batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.299, 0.733 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.306, 0.729 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh.
0.298, 0.727 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.276, 0.725 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.285, 0.725 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robbie Ray.

The NN likes Escobar better than Murphy.

The NN with park considerations produces this list:

0.319, 0.724 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jacob Turner.
0.280, 0.706 — Justin Morneau batting against Jered Weaver.
0.256, 0.704 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.321, 0.699 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.299, 0.698 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.292, 0.697 — Michael Trout batting against Jacob Turner.
0.283, 0.696 — Buster Posey batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.298, 0.694 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.285, 0.691 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robbie Ray.
0.306, 0.688 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh.

Escobar and Murphy are the consensus choices, but with Murphy hurt you may wish to consider Nunez, Seager, and Trout. As always, your best pick has about a 25% chance of not getting a hit in the game. Good luck!

July 9, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo
0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.316 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.314 — J.T. Realmuto batting against John Lamb
0.313 — Martin Prado batting against John Lamb
0.312 — Paulo Orlando batting against Wade Miley
0.312 — Ian Desmond batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.309 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Martinez
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against Logan Verrett
0.308 — Yunel Escobar batting against Yovani Gallardo

Two rookies make the top of the list, one a very good hitter, one a pitcher who gives up lots of hits. Perdomo is getting better, however, as he no longer dominates the list when he starts.

The NN top ten looks like this:

0.328, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.305, 0.745 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.309, 0.742 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Martinez.
0.304, 0.741 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.313, 0.737 — Martin Prado batting against John Lamb.
0.308, 0.737 — Yunel Escobar batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293, 0.736 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.338, 0.732 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.314, 0.732 — J.T. Realmuto batting against John Lamb.
0.301, 0.731 — Christian Yelich batting against John Lamb.
0.308, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Logan Verrett.

It strikes me that the NN does a better job of understanding the sample size issue, knocking Seager versus Perdomo down a bit.

The NN with park considerations alters the list like this:

0.328, 0.726 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.305, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.304, 0.706 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.309, 0.706 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Martinez.
0.308, 0.701 — Yunel Escobar batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293, 0.699 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.289, 0.698 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.313, 0.698 — Martin Prado batting against John Lamb.
0.287, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Moore.
0.276, 0.692 — Odubel Herrera batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.314, 0.692 — J.T. Realmuto batting against John Lamb.
0.263, 0.692 — Francisco Lindor batting against CC Sabathia.

The park eliminates the Seager versus Perdomo match. Altuve, Nunez, and Escobar appear to be the consenus picks. As usual, your best pick is going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

Update: It appears that Kyle Lohse will start instead of Nick Martinez, so that Eduardo Nunez number should not be considered correct.

July 8, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.324 — Darwin Barney batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.321 — Michael Saunders batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.316 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.313 — Paulo Orlando batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.312 — Josh Donaldson batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.310 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.308 — Devon Travis batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.304 — Steve Pearce batting against Sean O’Sullivan
0.302 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh

It appears to be a good night to pick a Blue Jays hitter, as they face Pelfrey. Batters are hitting .332 against Pelfrey this season. Against position players, his hit average (Hits/PA) is .297, while the league average is .233.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.291, 0.756 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.292, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.308, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.316, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.310, 0.727 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.273, 0.727 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Cole Hamels.
0.284, 0.726 — Corey Seager batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.321, 0.725 — Michael Saunders batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.262, 0.725 — Miguel Cabrera batting against J.A. Happ.
0.265, 0.724 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.308, 0.724 — Devon Travis batting against Mike Pelfrey.

The quality of the hitter is a bit more important to the NN. Darwin Barney owns a very good hit average in 2016, but his three-year number is lower, and that pulls him off the NN list.

The NN with park consideration changes the list like this:

0.291, 0.714 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.292, 0.702 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.261, 0.697 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.316, 0.695 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.273, 0.693 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.308, 0.693 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.265, 0.692 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.273, 0.692 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Cole Hamels.
0.273, 0.690 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chris Archer.
0.310, 0.688 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Pelfrey.

Coors Field elevates LeHahieu onto the list. The ballpark in Toronto has been below average in producing his over the last three seasons, nearly eliminating Blue Jays hitters from contention. Kevin Pillar is the only Jays hitter left, but Yunel Escobar appears to be the consensus choice among the three methods.

As always, your best choice is going to go hitless 25% of the time. Good luck!

July 3, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Logan Forsythe batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lamb
0.321 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean O’Sullivan
0.315 — Evan Longoria batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.310 — Mike Trout batting against Sean O’Sullivan
0.309 — Manny Machado batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.308 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matthew Shoemaker
0.307 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Quintana
0.304 — Wilson Ramos batting against John Lamb
0.303 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brandon McCarthy

The combination of Logan Forsythe’s hitting streak and Mike Pelfrey’s poor pitching brings the Tampa Bay infielder to the top of the list.

The NN produces this top 10:

0.307, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Quintana.
0.321, 0.749 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.326, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lamb.
0.300, 0.745 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.308, 0.740 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.297, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.290, 0.736 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.282, 0.735 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.258, 0.734 — Ben Revere batting against John Lamb.
0.303, 0.734 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brandon McCarthy.

Brandon McCarthy returns from Tommy John surgery today. His high BA allowed with few walks makes since 2014 makes him a prime candidate to give up a hit in the eyes of the Neural Network. He did give up 15 hits in 13 2/3 innings in the minors this year.

Taking ballparks into consideration, the NN produces this result:

0.307, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Quintana.
0.321, 0.715 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.326, 0.706 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lamb.
0.308, 0.705 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.297, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.300, 0.704 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.310, 0.697 — Mike Trout batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.258, 0.695 — Ben Revere batting against John Lamb.
0.282, 0.694 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.290, 0.694 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brandon McCarthy.

Escobar and Murphy appear to be the consensus picks. As always, the best player you can pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

June 13, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jered Weaver
0.326 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.322 — Ryan Braun batting against Matt Cain
0.316 — Victor Martinez batting against James Shields
0.313 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Matt Cain
0.311 — Ian Kinsler batting against James Shields
0.306 — Danny Valencia batting against Cesar Ramos
0.300 — Mike Trout batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.300 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields
0.298 — Cameron Maybin batting against James Shields

While the Log5 method does not like Ricky Nolasco and James Shields, Eduardo Nunez against Jered Weaver is by far the most likely combination to produce a hit. The Twins shortstop sports a high batting average with few walks and few strikeouts. So his BABIP is high and he puts the ball in play often.

Here’s the NN list:

0.326, 0.748 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.334, 0.735 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jered Weaver.
0.300, 0.732 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields.
0.283, 0.732 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.268, 0.731 — Buster Posey batting against Chase Anderson.
0.306, 0.728 — Danny Valencia batting against Cesar Ramos.
0.263, 0.727 — David Peralta batting against Michael Bolsinger.
0.311, 0.726 — Ian Kinsler batting against James Shields. Parameters:
0.278, 0.723 — Francisco Lindor batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.300, 0.722 — Mike Trout batting against Ricky Nolasco.

The NN flips one and two, but they seem to agree that Nunez and Escobar are the best bets. Miguel Cabrera is always a wise choice as well. As always, note that even with the best picks, there is about a 25% chance that the player will not get a hit.

July 22, 2015

Swing, and a Dive

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Yunel Escobar injured his wrist checking his swing Wednesday afternoon against a Noah Syndergaard pitch. The video is both amusing and scary. I remember watching a Yankees game many years ago when Ron Bloomberg torn a shoulder muscle swinging at a pitch. It’s amazing that those types of injuries can happen.

The Nationals came back late to beat the Mets 4-3 and take a three game lead in the NL East. As Matt Cerrone sums up:

The worst part is, though one loss, it feels like so much more, since it could have meant the Mets taking a series they hyped up to be super important. Instead of being 50-45 and a game out of first, heading home to face a tough Dodgers team, they’re 49-46, hanging their heads, three games back and set to face Clayton Kershaw…

Washington is probably at their weakest point so far. The injured players are mostly rehabbing. This was the chance for a great Mets staff to pitch them to a sweep and a one game lead in the division.

July 4, 2015

Bombing Bumgarner

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The first three Nationals hit deep balls against Madison Bumgarner. Michael Taylor hit a line drive home run pulled to left for a 1-0 lead. Yunel Escobar then hit a ball off the wall in center that just missed being a home run, and it wound up being a double. Then Bryce Harper hit his first home run in 12 games, a pulled shot into the bullpen in right.

The Nationals wish they hit like this against Madison in the 2014 playoffs. The National lead the Giants 3-0 in the first.

January 15, 2015

Strength for Weakness

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The Nationals dealt one of their many strong bullpen arms for middle infield help:

Infielder Yunel Escobar is heading to the Nationals, and All-Star reliever Tyler Clippard is going to the Athletics, thanks to the ninth deal between those clubs in a little more than four years.

The swap, announced Wednesday, gives Washington a player who could solve its search for a starting second baseman. Escobar could play shortstop for the Nationals if they wind up trading away — or fail to agree to a new contract with — Ian Desmond, who can become a free agent after next season.

Escobar is not a long term solution. He’ll play 2015 as a 32-year-old, and 2014 was the first season in which he posted negative fielding runs, according to FanGraphs. Inside Edge Fielding seems to indicate he lost a step in 2014. Given his history, however, he looks like someone who could bounce back for a year.

Clippard has a history of a much lower ERA than his FIP indicates. He’s a high strikeout pitcher who gives up lots of fly balls. How well they stay in the park in Oakland will say a bit about how this trade works out. All in all, a good move by both clubs.

Update: James Wagner has a lot more on the trade.

January 10, 2015

Z to A’s

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Oakland and Tampa Bay executed a trade as the Rays continue to stockpile for the future:

The Oakland Athletics have acquired infielder Ben Zobrist and shortstop Yunel Escobar from the Tampa Bay Rays for catcher John Jaso and a pair of minor league players.

The Rays also received top shortstop prospect Daniel Robertson, minor league outfielder Boog Powell and cash considerations.

Zobrist may be the definition of a Moneyball player. He posted fWARs over five during his last four seasons, and in five of the last six. He hits and fields, and can play a large number of positions. The Athletics will pay just $14.5 million for two years of that type of service.

While Boog Powell is not related to the famous Orioles first baseman, I look forward to broadcasters announcing, “They’re not saying boo.” Powell hasn’t produced power in the minors, but does a great job of getting on base. Robertson is similar.

The Athletics get someone who can help them compete this year, while the Rays stock their minors and get a catcher with some offensive value (and an old friend).

October 8, 2013

Breakthrough

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The Red Sox and Rays took a scoreless tie into the bottom of the sixth. Yunel Escobar just missed a home run as his shot hit off the top of the wall in leftfield for a double. After moving to third on a ground out, David DeJesus singles home the run, and the Rays take a 1-0 lead in another must win game for them.

Update: The Red Sox get the tie back in the top of the seventh on a wild pitch. Ellsbury was stealing on the pitch and winds up at third with two outs, the potential go-ahead run.

Update: Shane Victorino reaches on an infield hit, as the Rays shortstop Escobar was shifted toward third base and could not get to the ball in time to throw out Shane. Boston leads 2-1.

December 5, 2012

Defensive Rays

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I find it interesting what the Rays leave out of the discussion of the trade for Yunel Escobar:

Escobar’s acquisition, along with the soon-to-be-officially-announced signing of first baseman James Loney, will improve the Rays’ infield defense while also allowing the team to take advantage of Ben Zobrist‘s talents. Zobrist finished the 2012 season as Tampa Bay’s regular shortstop. Now he will likely be used primarily at second base and right field, with occasional stints at short.

“One of the benefits here is that Yunel will obviously be our primary shortstop,” Friedman said. “This will allow us to deploy [Zobrist] in more effective ways and utilize his versatility.”

Yunel, with the exception of 2012, does a very good job of getting on base. With a .353 career OBP, he is far from an out machine. His pop doesn’t matter that much. The Rays get a solid defensive shortstop with a good OBP cheap. With Longoria next to him, right-handed batters are going to have a tough time getting balls through the infield on the left side. Loney at first allows throws from that side to be a little wild as well. It’s another lesson in how to win on a budget.

It could also help Zobrist in the MVP voting if he’s not seen as a utility player.

September 18, 2012 May 2, 2012

Extra Es

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Edwin Encarnacion hit his ninth home run of the season and his fifth of the six game home stand, while Yunel Escobar single, doubled and tripled as the Blue Jays crushed Texas 11-5. Edwin’s single season high in home runs was 26, set back in 2008 with Cincinnati. He’s already 1/3 of the way there. Escobar only had four extra base his on the season so far.

Eric Thames and Elvis Andrus also doubled, as it was a good day for hitters with an E initial. 🙂

March 12, 2012

Trading Places

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Word popped up today that the Blue Jays at some point may ask Yunel Escobar to move from short to second. Tom Tango refers to Escobar as a young veteran, but I don’t agree. Escobar was born at the end of 1982, which means he’s already on the downside of his peak. Shortstop is a young man’s position, as you can see in the graph here. I think it makes perfect sense to move a 30-year-old shortstop to second base to make room for a younger player, or trade the shortstop for a decent second baseman.

July 12, 2011 June 19, 2011

Escobar Extended

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The Blue Jays signed Yunel Escobar to a two-year, $10 million extension:

Escobar will receive $5-million in both 2012 and 2013. The deal includes two club options of $5-million for 2014 and 2015.

This is a pretty good deal for the Blue Jays, as over his career Escobar produced much more value that $5 million per year. I do worry, however, that his batting and fielding have degraded a bit over the last two seasons. If they bounce back, this is a steal. If not, the Jays will let him go after the 2013 season.

April 7, 2011

Dizzy Escobar

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Yunel Escobar played a good game Wednesday until he was removed for dizziness:

Escobar was shaken up after sliding face first into third baseman Andy LaRoche’s leg on a triple in the fifth, laying on the ground and being tended to by the trainer before getting up. Escobar ran the bases and played defense in the sixth but was replaced by John McDonald in the seventh after complaining of dizziness.

“We’re hopeful and at least cautiously optimistic at this point that we’re not entertaining something like (a concussion),” Blue Jays manager John Farrell said.

Escobar, who was still wearing his helmet when he collided with LaRoche, was scheduled to go to a hospital for tests following the game. He will be reevaluated Thursday.

Jack Wilson came out of the Mariners’ game yesterday for what was reported as dizziness, but it was really due to his play in the field, so we’re only looking at one concussion today. We’ll see if Toronto uses the new seven day disabled list for Yunel.

July 18, 2010 July 18, 2010 July 16, 2010 July 14, 2010

Shortstop Trade

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The Braves and Blue Jays completed a five-player deal, the center of it a swap of shortstops. Yunel Escobar heads to the great white north, while Alex Gonzalez flies south for the summer. Escobar is hitting poorly during his age 27 season, but still maintains a good OBP. Gonzalez is hitting and getting on base at his poor career norms, but hitting way above his career slugging percentage. It appears the Braves are trading times on base for power.

As far as the shortstops are concerned, I think this is a bad deal for the Braves. I doubt Gonzalez’s power will last. Looking at Escobar, he’s just going through a down year, and I suspect he’ll bounce back well either this season or next.

We’ve talked about Escobar recently. The Braves have long been sour on him, and the sense is that Bobby Cox and others in the organization don’t much care for his demeanor, effort and the cut of his gib. He’s a talented player, and has shown great ability with his bat and his glove at times in the past, but he is prone to simply disappearing on both sides of the ball for weeks on end. 2010 has been something of a disaster for him all around: no power, no on base skills and multiple fielding lapses.

That last sentence is a bit wrong, as a .334 OBP is above the NL average. The Braves really should have figured out how to deal with his attitude rather than let a good young player go to another team.

It’s possible the Braves really wanted Tim Collins. Drunk Jays Fans really like him, despite his 5′ 7″ height. That doesn’t seem to stop him from striking out a ton of batters as a 20-year-old at AA.

April 29, 2010

Losing More than the Game

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The Braves fell to the Cardinals 10-4 Thursday afternoon, but lost one of their starting pitchers and a shortstop as well:

Starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens left with a strained left hamstring after the first inning and shortstop Yunel Escobar exited with a groin injury later in the Braves’ 10-4 series-finale loss Thursday afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals

Jurrjens allowed a three-run homer by David Freese in the first inning and was replaced by reliever Kris Medlen to begin the second.

Escobar strained his left adductor muscle while fielding a grounder and throwing to first base in the seventh inning. After Troy Glaus pinch-hit for him in the eighth, Omar Infante moved from third base to shortstop and Eric Hinske from first to third.

Both Jurrjens and Escobar were off to a poor starts, so I wonder if these injuries were coming on for a while.

Rasmus, Freese and Molina took advantage of the Braves plight, combining to go seven for eight with four walks, two doubles, a home run, six runs and eight RBI.

April 5, 2010

Lower Nine

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The Atlanta Braves defeated the Chicago Cubs 16-5 Monday afternoon, scoring eight runs off Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano in just 1 1/3 innings of work. The six-seven hitters for the Braves, Yunel Escobar and Jason Heyward combined for nine RBI, Heyward homering in his first at bat in the majors, and Escobar adding a single and a double. The three Braves hitters in front of them, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Troy Glaus, reached base nine times to set up the lower part of the order.

February 9, 2010

Players A to Z, Yunel Escobar

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Yunel Escobar plays shortstop for the Atlanta Braves. He’s a very good offensive shortstop, hitting for average, drawing walks for a great OBP, and hitting enough doubles for a decent slugging percentage. Over the last three seasons, only Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter own better OBPs while playing short.

As is often the case with shortstops who can hit, he’s not the greatest defender. He’s not bad however, just neutral. As long as he keeps his OBP up and makes most of the plays, he’s a valuable player for the Braves to keep at shortstop. He’ll be 27 this season, so look for a big year from Escobar.

One other thing that highlights his career so far is his hitting with runners in scoring position. His slash line in that situation is .337/.424/.526 in 374 plate appearances. That’s a small sample. Batting at the top of the order, he doesn’t get many RBI opportunities, but he seems to make the most of them.