Tag Archives: Martin Perez

September 6, 2025

Games of the Day

The White Sox, who are a bit hot right now, try to go two for two in their series with the Tigers. Martin Perez takes on Tarik Skubal. Perez owns a 2.16 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, thanks to allowing just two home runs and a good K rate. Skubal keeps gaining on the injured Zack Wheeler for the top spot in the Bill James Pitcher Rankings, a measure of who is the best pitcher today. He is well ahead of Paul Skenes, although Skenes’s quick rise to third place is impressive.

The Dodgers, losers of four in a row to last place teams, try to right the ship against the Orioles. Yoshinobu Yamamoto faces Trevor Rogers. Yamamoto, with 236 2/3 MLB innings under his belt, thrives on excellent three true outcomes. He is especially good at mowing down batters with Ks and preventing home runs, leading to a 2.89 career ERA. Rogers stands 8-2 in 14 starts with a complete game and a 1.39 ERA. The lowest ERA in the short mound/division era (1969 on), minimum 90 innings is Jacob deGrom with a 1.08 in 2021. Rogers is currently sixth on the list. Only two of the five in front of him reached 100 innings, so Rogers may reach number one at a higher inning total.

The Astros try to stop the surging Rangers with Hunter Brown facing deGrom. The pair rank two and four in ERA in the AL respectively. Brown makes the top five leaderboard in strikeout and home run rates, while deGrom graces he one in walks per 9 IP.

Enjoy!

February 12, 2025

Changes, Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox made the following additions to their 2025 projected active roster:

Mike Tauchman, rightfield
Josh Rojas, third base
Matt Thaiss, catcher
Brandon Drury, infield
Austin Slater, outfield
Michael A. Taylor, outfield
Martin Perez, starting pitcher
Bryse Wilson, starting pitcher
Cam Booser, relief pitcher
Shane Smith, relief pitcher

Smith, a rule five draft pick, comes into the season with no MLB experience. Shortstop Colson Montgomery is new to the majors as well, with no MLB service time. Given the historically poor season the White Sox posted in 2024, it’s not surprise there was a high roster turnover.

Tauchman gives the team a good leadoff hitter. He gets on base, but generates little power. He will at least extend a number of first innings. Rojas brings nothing to the table offensively, but sports an excellent glove at third base. Given the rather low strikeout rates of the starting rotation, there will be plenty of balls in play. Rojas should plug a defensive hole at the hot corner.

Thaiss, Drury, Slater, and Taylor make up the new bench. All are low production offensive players, none of them young. Taylor offers great defense in the outfield, otherwise these players will hold roster spots as the team rebuilds.

Perez slots in as the ace, but in the last two seasons proved his great 2022 campaign was a fluke. He projects to an ERA in the mid fours. Wilson is the more interesting signing as he pitches at seasonal peak age of 27. Despite coming to the majors young, his career never took off as he proved to be a low K, high HR pitcher. His strength comes from limiting walks. Pitchers like Wilson is why the White Sox are going to need a good defense this season.

Booser plays as a 33-year-old in 2025, having made a pretty good MLB debut in 2024. He should post decent three-true outcomes for a middle reliever. Smith might turn out to be a nice acquisition. He will debut in his early prime, and his minor league numbers indicate a high K, low home run pitcher. That’s a good combination.

The White Sox roster is a combination of past-prime players and inexperienced major leaguers (and the two do intersect). Fourteen of the 26 hold less than two years of major league service time. This is not a rebuild, this is trying to put an MLB team on the field until the farm system can produce some talent. The team will improve, mostly because it’s difficult to play that badly two seasons in a row.

September 29, 2024

Games of the Day

In reading the MLB Playoff Picture for today, it seems that the Monday games between the Braves and the Mets will be played no matter what.

However, if the Diamondbacks lose and the Mets win, no matter the Braves outcome, there is no way the Diamondbacks can make the playoffs, since they lose all tiebreakers. If the Mets forfeit, they are the bottom seed and play at Milwaukee, where they currently reside. If they play Monday and sweep the doubleheader, they then need to fly cross country and play the Padres. So if I’m running the Mets, I forfeit the doubleheader and stay put.

Of course, the Mets have to win today for that possibility to happen. David Peterson takes on Colin Rea. Peterson works on completing the best season of his career, now 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA. He limits both hits and power, likely using his walks allowed to avoid tough hitters. Rea owns a good record with a high ERA, 112-5 with a 4.17 mark. He allowed 28 home runs in 162 innings, so the Mets might want to swing for the fences against him. Note that Milwaukee should want the Mets to lose this game, as a doubleheader Monday may deplete an opponent.

The Padres play the Diamondbacks with Martin Perez facing Brandon Pfaadt. We are in the unfortunate situation here where the Padres are better off tanking this game. They play the higher seed. If Atlanta, let them waste two good pitchers on Monday. If the Mets, let them do a lot of traveling in two days. A Diamondbacks victory assures games on Monday. Perez owns a 4.25 ERA. His K’s are low and his walks and home runs are high, which should lead to some scoring at Chase Field. Pfaadt brings a 4.80 ERA into the game, so it’s not like the Padres shouldn’t score some runs today.

Finally, the Braves host the Royals with Alec Marsh facing Charlie Morton. KC needs a win and a Tigers loss to grab the second wild card slot and play Baltimore instead of Houston. An Atlanta win puts them in the post-season, as it would give them the tie breaker against the Diamondbacks. They would then be playing Monday for the other contenders.

Enjoy!

August 20, 2024

Games of the Day

Possible playoff opponents the Guardians and Yankees meet in The Bronx with Matt Boyd facing Luis Gil. Boyd last pitched against the Yankees in 2019 for Detroit. He went 1-3 against them with a 5.19 ERA in five starts. Despite walking nearly a batter every other inning, Gil owns a low .292 opposition OBP to go with a .317 opposition slugging percentage.

The Phillies and Braves send two of their best to the mound as Zack Wheeler battles Reynaldo Lopez. Wheeler’s 2.72 ERA would be the best single season mark of his career. He’s holding batters to a .242 BABIP while averaging nearly 10 Ks per 9 innings. Lopez comes into the game with a 2.06 ERA, helping to save a rotation depleted of it’s aces. He allowed just seven home runs in 104 2/3 innings.

Wild Card hopefuls Twins and Padres send Bailey Ober against Martin Perez in San Diego. Ober, like Wheeler, holds batters to a .246 BABIP with a high K rate. Perez is 1-0 in three starts with a 1.96 ERA since joining the Padres.

July 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.320 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.306 — Masyn Winn batting against Martin Perez.
0.305 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Zach Eflin.
0.305 — Alec Burleson batting against Martin Perez.
0.295 — Jose Miranda batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.294 — Steven Kwan batting against Jared Shuster.
0.292 — Brendan Donovan batting against Martin Perez.
0.290 — Alec Bohm batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.289 — Luis Rengifo batting against JP Sears.
0.289 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.289 — Nolan Arenado batting against Martin Perez.

It looks like a good day for the Cardinals as Perez allows a .352 BABIP this season, and is not known for his ability to K batters.

Note that the Mets at the Nationals kicks off at 11 AM EDT, so get your picks in early.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.320, 0.731 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.275, 0.728 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Scherzer.
0.294, 0.717 — Steven Kwan batting against Jared Shuster.
0.305, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Zach Eflin.
0.289, 0.709 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.286, 0.707 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jose Quintana.
0.289, 0.699 — Luis Rengifo batting against JP Sears.
0.286, 0.696 — Christian Yelich batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.290, 0.696 — Alec Bohm batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.279, 0.696 — William Contreras batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.261, 0.696 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jake Irvin.

The NN eliminates the Cardinals hitters. Connor Wong, with a seventeen game hit streak, does not make the list today. The NN pegs his probability of a hit at .680.

The two systems agree on Turner as the top pick, with Witt winning the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 11, 2023

Games of the Day

The Astros and Guardians play an early Sunday game, with a 12:40 PM EDT start time. Brandon Bielak takes on Shane Bieber. Bielak comes into the game with a 3.35 ERA despite not pitching that well. FanGraphs has his FIP at 5.21 and his xFIP at 4.51. I’d like to say the defense played well behind him, but his opposition BABIP stands at .333 despite giving up a low line drive rate. For now we can chalk it up to a small sample size and a low BA allowed with runners in scoring position. Bieber’s strikeout rate fell off a cliff in 2023. It’s at 6.14 per K 9 IP in 2023 versus his career average 10.18 K per 9 IP. He remains effective, however.

The Rangers and Rays play the rubber game of their series with Martin Perez facing Shane McClanahan. Both pitcher own just one loss this season. Perez’s 6-1 record is helped by the Rangers offense that score six runs or more in eight of his twelve starts. McClanahan owns a 2.02 ERA to go with this 9-1 record. The Rays also score for him, with six or more runs in seven of his thirteen starts.

Enjoy!

April 30, 2023

Games of the Day

The Pirates go for a sweep of the Nationals with Johan Oviedo taking on Josiah Gray. Looking at Oviedo since the start of 2022 we see a good pitcher with no outstanding strength or weakness. His K rate is okay. His walks are a little on the high side, and his home runs allowed are a little on the low side. He does manage to limit hits, and that helps him to a 3.15 ERA in that period. Gray, with a 2.93 ERA is a bright spot for the Nationals this season. He’s getting hammered with the bases empty, .323/.354/.597. All nine of his extra-base hits came with the bases empty, however, so runners are not being moved far once they are on base.

See yesterday’s Games of the Day post for the Braves and Mets match-up of Spencer Strider and Tylor Megill.

The Rangers try to take three of four from the visiting Yankees as Nestor Cortes battles Martin Perez. Cortes continues to be stingy with his walks, allowing just five so far in 28 1/3 innings. Perez allowed a .349 slugging percentage since joining the Rangers. His career mark was .438 prior to moving to Texas.

The Mexico City game features Alex Cobb of the Giants and Yu Darvish of the Padres trying not to get hammered. With Cobb holding a 1.91 ERA after five starts, and given the ease of hitting shown on Saturday, this game could easily cost Cobb a shot at a Cy Young award. Darvish comes in with a 3.00 ERA. He is wild compared to last year when he walked 37 batters in 194 2/3 innings. He already walked 12 in 24 innings. He has get to allow a home run, however. He gave up 22 in 2022. That may change this afternoon.

Enjoy!

Update: Rain postpones the Braves and the Mets for a second day in a row.

April 2, 2023

Games of the Day

Cole Irvin of the Orioles and Tanner Houck of the Red Sox try to stop two hot offenses in Boston. Irvin is coming off his best season in 2022. He limits walks,, but trades those for hits due to his low K rate. We’ll see if the Orioles defense is up to the balls in play. Houck pitched 146 innings in the majors with a 3.02 ERA. He allowed just eight home runs in those innings.

Mike Clevinger makes his White Sox debug as he takes on the Astros and Luis Garcia. After missing all of 2021, Clevinger posted a 4.33 ERA in 2022, giving up 20 home runs in 114 1/3 innings. Garcia owns a .619 winnings percentage the last two seasons with a 3.51 ERA. It helps to play for a high scoring team.

The Phillies and the Rangers kick off Sunday Night Baseball, sending Bailey Falter against Martin Perez. Falter gives up few walks, so he can get away with allowing a high home run rate. Perez posted the first sub 3.00 ERA in 2022, coming in at 2.89. He allowed just eleven home runs in 196 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

October 3, 2022

Games of the Day

The Braves travel to Miami with Bryce Elder facing Jesus Luzardo. Elder is off to a great start in his MLB career, posting a 2.76 ERA in forty nine innings. He allowed just three home runs so far. Luzardo dropped his ERA by over three runs compared to 2021. In about the same number of innings, his home runs dropped from twenty to ten.

A home run will be the attraction in Texas, although Luis Severino of Yankees against Martin Perez of the Rangers is a nice battle on its own. Aaron Judge is running out of time to set a new AL single season home run record. Judge has not faced Perez many times, but the results were not good. The match-up produced one hit, a double, in nine at bats with three walks, three strikeouts, and two double plays.

The Phillies also travel to Texas, where a win against the Astros (or a Brewers loss) puts them in the playoffs. Aaron Nola takes on Lance McCullers, Jr. Nola needs 1 2/3 innings to reach the 200 IP mark for the third time in his career. He allowed just 166 hits this season. McCullers appears to be completely recovered from his injury, with a 2.38 ERA in seven starts. He walked 21 batters in 41 2/3 innings, but allowed just 31 hits.

Enjoy!

August 31, 2022

Games of the Day

The afternoon gives us the Astros at the Rangers with Cristian Javier facing Martin Perez. Javier lowered his ERA over half a run from last year by lowering both his walks and home run rates. In a very good year for pitchers in the AL, Perez’s 2.69 ERA does not make the top five. He needs six innings for 162, the qualifying level for the title. Note that with both Justin Verlander and Shane McClanahan hurt, Perez could wind up in the top five by others not qualifying.

The early evening features the Dodgers at the Mets with Tyler Anderson taking on Jacob deGrom. Even with the Rockies, Anderson induced a fairly decent BABIP, and since leaving it became great. His .258 BABIP this season allows him to limit hits while batters put a ton of balls in play. The Mets ace prevents hits the old fashioned way, as he struck out 46 batters in 29 1/3 innings.

The late show focus is on Anaheim where Gerrit Cole of the Yankees takes the hill against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. Cole reached 200 K for the fifth time in his career. Sandoval features a better ERA than Cole, but a losing record of 4-9. He only pitched 115 innings in 21 starts, and it’s tough to win when you don’t stay in the game.

Enjoy!

August 9, 2022

Games of the Day

The Battle of Texas takes place in Houston as the Rangers send Martin Perez against Jose Urquidy. Perez owns good results against the Astros in his career, 9-5 with a 2.64 ERA, including a shutout in their last meeting in May. Urquidy comes into the game with a 3.62 ERA, his mark from last season. He’s pitched 7 1/3 more innings this season with the same number of home runs allowed and strikeouts recorded as last year.

The Twins make their way to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers with Joe Ryan facing Julio Urias. Ryan is now 10-5 in his 22 MLB starts. He allows few base runners, with an OBP of .268 over that time. Urias owns the second best winning percentage the last two seasons, (250 IP minimum). He allowed a .263 OBP the last two season.

Enjoy!

July 14, 2022

Games of the Day

The Reds and Yankees play the rubber game of their series with Luis Castillo taking on Nestor Cortes. The Reds could easily being going for a sweep, as it took an eighth inning home run by Giancarlo Stanton to tie the game and two wild pitches by Alexis Diaz to seal the Yankees ten inning, 7-6 victory on Wednesday. Castillo comes into the game with a 2.92 ERA, giving up just five home runs in 71 innings. It’s his strength against the Yankees strength. Cortes went through a rough spot in his last four starts, posting a 5.68 ERA in that time. His walks and strikeout rates remain excellent, but he allowed seven of his 13 home runs in those 19 innings.

The White Sox visit the Twins with Johnny Cueto facing Sonny Gray. Cueto’s 2.91 ERA seems a bit low for his overall numbers, and it can’t be explained away by situational hitting. He gives up power with men on base, and his only outstanding situation is two outs, runners in scoring position. FanGraphs has his xFIP at 4.08, so he may be a bit lucky. Gray owns a 2-0 record with a 2.83 ERA in seven home starts, but averages just five innings per start.

The surging Mariners visit the Rangers with Marco Gonzales battling Martin Perez. The Mariners offered poor run support for Gonzales, scoring two runs or less in nine of his seventeen starts. That’s a big reason for his 5-9 record. Perez did not allow a home run until June, but gave up six in 42 2/3 innings since then, leading to a 4.64 ERA.

Finally, the Brewers and Giants meet in San Francisco with Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon taking the hill. Burnes struck out 134 in 106 1/3 innings, leading him to allow just 69 hits. Rodon’s 124 K in 100 innings led him to allowing just 74 hits. The two pitchers are at the top of the NL leaderboard in K per 9 IP.

Enjoy!

July 13, 2022

Short Shutouts

Team shutouts continue to run high as a percentage of starts. The 2022 season produced 189 shutouts in 2626 starts, 7.20%. In the 30 team era (1998 on), only the 2014 season produced a higher percentage of shutouts, 7.26%. It’s quite possible the way scoring is going that 2022 surpasses 2014. Of those 189 shutouts, only six came as a complete game by the starter. Many years ago I came up with the idea of the short shutout. A starter gets credit for a short shutout if he pitches at least six innings of shutout ball (and if he completes the game). This gives us an idea of which pitchers, in an era where complete games are forbidden, still are great at stopping scoring. Here are the current leaders in short shutouts.

Pitcher	Complete Game Shutouts	Short Shutous
Zack Wheeler	0	6
Sandy Alcantara	0	5
Corbin Burnes	0	5
Gerrit Cole	0	5
Joe Musgrove	0	5
Martin Perez	1	5

Leaders in Short Shutouts, 2022

Note that a short shutout doesn’t always result in a team shutout, as Gerrit Cole found out Tuesday night.

July 9, 2022

Games of the Day

Patrick Sandoval leads the Angels against the Orioles and Dean Kremer. Sandoval sits seventeen innings short of his total from 2021, but reduced his home runs allowed from eleven to four. That helped him reduce his ERA by half a run. Kremer finds success in his seasonal age 26 season by reducing both his walks and home runs. He allows the ball to be put in play, but he’s limiting damage by limiting batters to a .347 slugging percentage.

Devin Smeltzer takes on Martin Perez as the Twins continue their series with the Rangers. Both pitchers give up hits with few walks, but the difference in their ERA comes from Perez doing a better job of limiting power.

The Giants send Carlos Rodon against the Padres and Yu Darvish. Rodon excels at all three true outcomes, with four home runs allowed, thirty walks, and 112 strikeouts in 91 innings. Darvish owns a 1.75 ERA at home this season, where he allowed just two fo of the nine home runs hit against him.

Finally, the Blue Jays battle the Mariners with Alek Manoah and Robbie Ray on the mound. Manoah switched the number on his ERA this season, going from 3.22 to 2.33. He cut his walks allowed nearly in half compared to his rookie season. Ray follows up his Cy Young season with a dip in his K rate and an increase in his BB rate, but he still leads the league in innings.

Enjoy!

July 9, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.331 — Dansby Swanson batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.324 — Michael Harris II batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.319 — Austin Riley batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.319 — Luis Arraez batting against Martin Perez.
0.313 — Jeff McNeil batting against Braxton Garrett.
0.311 — Starling Marte batting against Braxton Garrett.
0.305 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.303 — Garrett Cooper batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.302 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.300 — Jose Iglesias batting against Madison Bumgarner.

Ozzie Albies, who is on the disabled list for the Braves, is 12 for 28 against Corbin. Swanson stands 7 for 29, .241, but with just three strikeouts.

Here are the NN picks:

0.319, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against Martin Perez.
0.287, 0.730 — Tim Anderson batting against Garrett Hill.
0.296, 0.723 — Trea Turner batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.302, 0.719 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.311, 0.717 — Starling Marte batting against Braxton Garrett.
0.300, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.331, 0.715 — Dansby Swanson batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.313, 0.711 — Jeff McNeil batting against Braxton Garrett.
0.319, 0.710 — Austin Riley batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.282, 0.709 — Rafael Devers batting against Jordan Montgomery.

Arraez is an interesting first pick today, as Perez is posting a very good season. Note, however, that Perez is great due to his low OBP and slugging percentage. He gives up a good number of singles, but that’s pretty much all he gives up. Arraez is a singles hitter. Sometimes the NN appears smarter than it really is.

Arraez is the consensus top pick, with Swanson the consensus second choice. There is not a lot of agreement today between the two systems.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 2, 2022

Games of the Day

The Rays and Blue Jays open the day with an excellent pitching match-up in game one of their doubleheader. Shane McClanahan takes on Kevin Guasman. McClanahan lowered his ERA in his sophomore season by raising his K rate and lowering his walk rate. Home runs allowed are his only weakness, but with no one on base they do little damage. Guasman continues his renaissance with another season with an ERA under 3.00. He allowed just two home runs in 86 innings, the second best HR rate in the majors.

The White Sox send Dylan Cease against the Giants and Logan Webb. Cease owns a 0.26 ERA in his last six starts, but ten of the eleven runs he allowed were unearned. Webb remains consistent, following up his 3.03 ERA in 2021 with a 3.04 ERA in 2022.

The leader in HR per 9 IP, Martin Perez of the Rangers takes on Trevor Williams and the Mets. Perez’s eschewing of the long ball lowered his ERA to 2.22. Williams owns a 2.00 ERA at home, where he allowed just one of his six home runs.

Finally, Yu Darvish battles Tyler Anderson as the Padres visit the Dodgers. Darvish comes off an excellent June in which he posted a 2.52 ERA, walking just five batters in 35 2/3 innings. Anderson walked just 13 batters in 78 innings this season, and goes for his ninth win.

Enjoy!

June 5, 2022

Perez Dinged

Eugenio Suarez of the Mariners ended the home run prevention of Martin Perez. Suarez went deep against the Rangers starter in the fourth inning, giving Perez 66 1/3 innings before allowing a long ball this season. The Rangers lead 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh on three solo home runs of their own, including the first MLB home run for Ezequiel Duran, playing in his second game.

June 5, 2022

Games of the Day

Devin Smeltzer takes on Kevin Gausman as the Twins and Blue Jays finish their series in Toronto. Smeltzer, up and down the last few years, is off to a great start in his seasonal age 26 season. He allowed just 16 hits and four walks in 24 innings, and he accomplished that with just twelve strikeouts. Gausman so far improved on his excellent 2021 season, this year cutting his home run rate from 0.9 HR per 9 IP to 0.3 HR per 9 IP.

Seattle sends George Kirby against the Rangers and Martin Perez. The rookie Kirby showed fantastic control, with three walks and 28 strikeouts in 26 innings. Opponents barreled the ball just 2.3% of the time against Perez this season compared to 5.6% during the StatCast era. It’s one reason he has not allowed a home run this season.

Enjoy!

June 5, 2022

Whose Cy?

A third of the way through the season, no clear candidate emerged for the Cy Young Award in either league. Here are four measures that try to predict voter preferences:

Tom Tango Cy Young Points: Sandy Alcantara NL. Shane McClanahan AL.
Enhanced TT Cy Young Points: Sandy Alcantara NL. Martin Perez AL.
Bill James Cy Young Points: Tyler Anderson NL. Clay Holmes AL.
Season Score: Joe Musgrove NL. Clay Holmes AL.

We also can rank pitchers by the two different WARs

FanGraphs WAR: Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove NL. Kevin Gausman AL.
Baseball Reference WAR: Sandy Alcantara NL. Martin Perez AL.

It would be unusual today for a reliever to win the award, but Holmes is having a fantastic season. Alcantara appears to be the front runner in the NL, and I would guess Perez might get the nod in the AL if the vote was taken today. Perez has now gone 63 1/3 innings without allowing a home run. While home runs are down this season from recent years, they are still high historically.

June 1, 2022

Players of the Month

May featured a number of outstanding performances at the plate. One of the oddest ones comes off the bat Luis Arraez of the Twins, who led the majors in OBP with a .480 mark, but slugged just .412. He collected 32 hits and sixteen walks, but only three of those hits went for extra bases, all doubles.

It’s also unusual to see someone hit .400 in a month, but J.D. Martinez of the Red Sox and Paul Goldschmidt of the the Cardinals pulled it off. Goldschmidt wound up leading the majors in slugging percentage by 71 points, as 23 of his 42 hits went for extra bases. Mookie Betts of the Dodgers and Aaron Judge of the Yankees tied for the lead in home runs with twelve, but neither matched Goldschmidt’s averages. To top it all off, Goldschmidt finished the month with a 22 game hit streak. Overall, however, no one comes close to Goldschmidt in all the averages, and he gets the nod for Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for May 2022.

On the pitching side, the discussion starts with Martin Perez of the Ranger posted a ERA of 0.64 in 42 1/3 innings to lead the majors. His main competition comes from Shane McClanahan of the Rays who posted a 1.15 ERA in 31 1/3 innings. McClanahan blew batters away with 11.20 K per nine and showed great control with 1.44 walks per 9 IP. Perez’s number were 7.02 K per 9 IP and 1.91 BB per 9 IP. Perez, did not allow a home run, however, while McClanahan gave up three dingers.

As far as three-true outcomes go, Perez obviously was at the top of the list in home runs. Tyler Anderson walked just 0.56 batters per 9 IP for a 3.09 ERA. Dylan Cease with 13.64 K per 9 led the majors in that category, but posted a 3.98 ERA. In fact, the three pitchers with the best K per 9 in the month all posted high ERAs.

Let’s also give a shoutout to Framber Valdez of the Astros and Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, the only other pitchers in the month to throw at least 40 innings. Perez’s low ERA, his home run shutout, and his eleven more innings than McClanahan put him on top. Congratulations to Martin Perez, the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for May 2022.

May 26, 2022

Games of the Day

The Brewers lead the Cardinals by 3 1/2 games in the NL Central as the teams start a series in St. Louis. Eric Lauer takes on Adam Wainwright. Lauer allowed seven home runs this season but little else. Eleven of the twelve runs he allowed came on the homers, helping him to a 2.16 ERA. Wainwright, at seasonal age 40 continues to impress. He allowed just 38 hits in 47 innings. He worked in a changeup a lot more than he did in the past, giving batters something else to worry about.

Martin Perez takes the hill for Texas against Frankie Montas in Oakland. With 49 1/3 innings this season, Perez has the most IP in the majors without allowing a home run. Montas seems like he should own a better ERA than his 3.55 mark. He holds opponents to a .205/.260/.346 slash line, and that improves with runners on base. I don’t see an explanation in his splits.

Enjoy!

April 28, 2022

Games of the Day

1 Reply

The last place Tigers take on the first place Twins as Tarik Skubal faces Bailey Ober. Skubal dropped his ERA as he denies batters walks, allowing just one in 15 2/3 innings. Despite going after batters, he has yet to allow a home run. Ober, with just three walks in sixteen innings holds batters to a .250 OBP.

The Astros and Rangers battle in Texas as Justin Verlander takes on Martin Perez. Three of the four runs Verlander allowed this season came on solo home runs. Perez denied batters power, as they slug .358 against him on five doubles. That means his .350 OBP allowed has not cost him that much in terms of ERA.

The Royals at the White Sox may be your game without hits today. Brad Keller of the Royals allowed eleven hits in his first 17 2/3 innings of the season, while Michael Kopech gave up just six hits in 14 innings.

The Cubs and Braves square off in Atlanta with Drew Smyly and Kyle Wright on the mound. Smyly allows batters to put the ball in play, and his low ERA comes from getting batters in high leverage situations. He allowed an one hit in eleven at bats with runners in scoring position. Wright’s walks hurt his career up to this point, but in 2022 he took control, with just two free passes in seventeen innings.

Enjoy!

June 25, 2021

Games of the Day

It’s tough to pick out a great pitching match-up today. The Yankees visit Boston for the first time this season, the Red Sox sweeping the Yankees earlier this month in The Bronx. Domingo German takes on Martin Perez. German’s ERA is a run lower on the road compared to home, due to his ability to keep the ball in the park away from Yankee Stadium. He allowed 12 home runs in New York in 34 2/3 innings, two on the road in 34 1/3 innings. Perez has a similar attribute, with six of his eight home runs coming at Fenway Park, so being on the road for this game may not help German.

The Mariners send Yusei Kikuchi against the White Sox and Carlos Rodon. Kikuchi allowed 13 home runs in 80 2/3 innings, but not much else. Opponents own a .198/.266/.355 slash line against him, so the extra-base hits don’t do much damage. Rodon is now the leader in average outs before allowing a hit this season, 7.75. You can see his extremely low batting averages allowed by inning here.

Enjoy!

June 8, 2021

Games of the Day

The Astros visit the Red Sox with Framber Valdez facing Martin Perez. I do wonder how the Red Sox fans will greet the Astros, as a major cog in Houston’s cheating scandal is managing the Boston team. Valdez makes his third start of the season and so far pitched great. He struck out 14 and allowed seven hits in 11 innings, good for a 1.64 ERA. Perez appears to be helped by the new ball, as he allowed eight home runs in 62 innings in 2020, just four home runs in 58 1/3 innings this year.

Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays faces Carlos Rodon of the White Sox in a game that features a number of the best hitters in the game. Ray limits walks, with just 14 allowed in 58 innings. Rodon limits hits, with just 32 allowed in 54 2/3 innings.

The Yankees take to the road as Jordan Montgomery battles former Bronx pitcher Michael Pineda of the Twins. This is a game featuring two teams performing below expectations. The Yankees own the second lowest runs per game in the AL. The Twins allow the second highest runs per game in the AL.

Montgomery’s strength come from limiting walks, issuing about one every four innings this season. Pineda is now 16-8 for the Twins in three seasons, walking just 1.9 batters per nine innings.

Enjoy!

May 28, 2021

Games of the Day

The Marlins visit the Red Sox with rookie Cody Poteet facing Martin Perez. Poteet makes the fourth start of his career, and so far he pitched about as good as anyone in the majors. He sports a 1.06 ERA with just ten hits allowed in 17 innings, despite just 13 K. Perez limited power this season, as opponents are slugging just .341 against him.

Ian Anderson leads the Braves into New York against Taijuan Walker and the Mets. Anderson continues his rookie skill of keeping the ball in the park, now with just five home runs allowed in 83 1/3 MLB innings. Walker allowed just one home run home run in 44 innings this season after allowing eight last year in 53 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Giants continue their series in Los Angeles as Anthony DeSclafani takes on Walker Buehler. DeSclafani cut down his home run and walk rates from last season to cut his ERA in half. Buehler, with a 3-0 record, is now 27-9 for his career. With 70 starts, however, he does not receive a decision very often.

Enjoy!

July 22, 2019

Games of the Day

The Reds send Sonny Gray against the Brewers and Chase Anderson. Gray pitched 27 fewer inning than last season, but is only three strikeouts behind his 2018 total. Anderson owns a 6.75 ERA this season in two starts against the Reds.

The Yankees visit the Twins in a clash of first place teams. CC Sabathia takes on Martin Perez. Sabathia gives up power, and this may be the most powerful Twins team ever. They’ve hit 182 home runs so far this season, their ninth highest season total. They are well on their way to breaking their 1963 team record of 225 home runs. Perez lowered his ERA over two runs from last season by cutting his home run rate by more than half.

Enjoy!

May 28, 2019

Games of the Day

Zach Plesac makes his MLB debut for the Indians tonight at Fenway Park against the Red Sox and David Price. Plesac is the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan Plesac. In 57 1/3 innings between AA and AAA this season, Plesac walked just seven batters. In his minor league career he walked 58 batters in 253 innings while allowing 13 home runs. Price makes just his third start at Fenway this season, where he allowed two runs in 13 innings.

Washington tries to climb back to respectability as they send Stephen Strasburg against the Braves and Max Fried. Strasburgh strikes out an impressive 10.88 batters per nine innings this season, and he’s not even in the top ten among ERA qualifiers. Fried allowed seven home runs in 56 1/3 innings this season, but six were solo shots. With runners on base, he allows a low .338 slugging percentage, helping him to a 2.88 ERA.

The undefeated Zach Davies leads the Brewers against the hot Minnesota Twins and the once defeated Martin Perez. Davies owns a 2.43 ERA. While his BA, OBP, and Slugging Pct. allowed are good, inducing ten ground ball double plays appears to be a big reason for his success. The change of scenery from Texas to Minneapolis helped Perez cut down on homers allowed, and dropped his ERA to 2.95. It’s 4.51 for his career.

Enjoy!

May 6, 2019

Games of the Day

A match-up of great veterans takes place in New York where Felix Hernandez leads the Mariners against CC Sabathia and the Yankees. Both teams come into the game with 19 wins, two games back in their respective divisions. Both pitchers came up young, Hernandez at seasonal 19 in 2005, Sabathia at seasonal age 20 in 2000. From 2005 to 2012 the two posted nearly identical ERAs, and three-true outcomes. Sabathia won many more games, but he played for better teams.

The Twins send Martin Perez against the Blue Jays and Marcus Stroman. Perez comes into the game 4-0 on the season, 3-0 as a starter. In his four starts he posted a 2.08 ERA, walking just five batters in 26 innings. Stroman owns a 1-4 record despite a 2.20 ERA. He has been hurt by four unearned runs and Toronto scoring just 18 runs in seven starts. He has yet to allow a home run in 41 innings.

Finally, Jacob deGrom faces Chris Paddack as the Mets visit the Padres. deGrom’s strikeouts remain high, but he allowed five home runs this season after giving up just 10 in 2018. Paddack is an early rookie of the year candidate as he owns a 1.91 ERA after six starts and 33 innings. He allowed just two home runs, batters slugging just .207 against him.

Enjoy!

August 25, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Buster Posey batting against Martin Perez.
0.329 — Alen Hanson batting against Martin Perez.
0.315 — Evan Longoria batting against Martin Perez.
0.314 — Brandon Crawford batting against Martin Perez.
0.311 — Austin Slater batting against Martin Perez.
0.309 — Joe Panik batting against Martin Perez.
0.306 — Steven Duggar batting against Martin Perez.
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.305 — Brandon Belt batting against Martin Perez.
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.304 — Chase D’Arnaud batting against Martin Perez.
0.304 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Martin Perez.
0.303 — Manny Machado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.303 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.302 — Nick Hundley batting against Martin Perez.
0.302 — Justin Turner batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.299 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.299 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Martin Perez.
0.297 — Hunter Pence batting against Martin Perez.
0.297 — Adrian Beltre batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Matt Kemp batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.296 — Jose Martinez batting against German Marquez.
0.295 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.292 — Christian Yelich batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.291 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.

Posey will have hip surgery Monday, so I don’t know if he is going to play until then. He is not on the disabled list. I’d think he would want to bat against Perez.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.305, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.340, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Martin Perez.
0.296, 0.727 — Jose Martinez batting against German Marquez.
0.272, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Robbie Ray.
0.295, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.279, 0.719 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
0.290, 0.717 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Castillo.
0.288, 0.713 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.299, 0.713 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284, 0.711 — David Peralta batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.291, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.292, 0.711 — Christian Yelich batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.284, 0.710 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.287, 0.709 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.329, 0.708 — Alen Hanson batting against Martin Perez.
0.281, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Fiers.
0.297, 0.708 — Adrian Beltre batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.275, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jose Quintana.
0.303, 0.707 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.302, 0.706 — Justin Turner batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.278, 0.705 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.285, 0.705 — Javier Baez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.303, 0.704 — Manny Machado batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.287, 0.701 — Nick Markakis batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.277, 0.701 — Marcell Ozuna batting against German Marquez.
0.268, 0.701 — Michael Brantley batting against Heath Fillmyer.

Note the Yankees and Orioles are playing a double header today, so be careful which game you pick! Or, you could just double down on Miguel Andujar. Posey is the consensus first choice, but if you elminate him from the competition, it looks like Altuve and Murphy would be the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

August 18, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.355 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Martin Perez.
0.332 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tom Milone.
0.328 — Starlin Castro batting against Tom Milone.
0.320 — Michael Brantley batting against Alex Cobb.
0.316 — Albert Pujols batting against Martin Perez.
0.316 — Francisco Arcia batting against Martin Perez.
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.312 — David Fletcher batting against Martin Perez.
0.311 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Martin Perez.
0.311 — Rene Rivera batting against Martin Perez.
0.310 — Justin Upton batting against Martin Perez.
0.310 — Jose Ramirez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.309 — Brian Anderson batting against Tom Milone.
0.305 — Taylor Ward batting against Martin Perez.
0.304 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.303 — Eric Young Jr. batting against Martin Perez.
0.303 — Derek Dietrich batting against Tom Milone.
0.302 — Miguel Rojas batting against Tom Milone.
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Harvey.
0.301 — Francisco Lindor batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Yandy Diaz batting against Alex Cobb.
0.296 — Rafael Ortega batting against Tom Milone.
0.293 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.293 — Melky Cabrera batting against Alex Cobb.

Martin Perez distorts this list. His hit average allowed is so high, .327 this season, that pitchers who have a plate appearance or two get pulled in as they appear as average hitters due to the regression. It should be a good day for the Angels.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.313, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.355, 0.745 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Martin Perez.
0.332, 0.738 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tom Milone.
0.328, 0.734 — Starlin Castro batting against Tom Milone.
0.320, 0.730 — Michael Brantley batting against Alex Cobb.
0.310, 0.721 — Jose Ramirez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.304, 0.719 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.292, 0.719 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.274, 0.718 — Jean Segura batting against Rich Hill.
0.293, 0.716 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.279, 0.716 — Jose Martinez batting against Wade Miley.
0.302, 0.714 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Harvey.
0.258, 0.712 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.286, 0.710 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ryan N Carpenter.
0.283, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.309, 0.707 — Brian Anderson batting against Tom Milone.
0.285, 0.706 — Javier Baez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.279, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.255, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.301, 0.702 — Francisco Lindor batting against Alex Cobb.
0.260, 0.702 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.293, 0.700 — Melky Cabrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.279, 0.700 — Adam Jones batting against Adam Plutko.
0.280, 0.700 — Nick Markakis batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.264, 0.699 — Scooter Gennett batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.302, 0.699 — Miguel Rojas batting against Tom Milone.

The NN weights the batter’s record, especially his three-year hit average, more heavily than the pitcher’s ability, so we don’t get the bad-pitcher distortion here. That’s why Murphy makes it to the top of this list, but Simmons and Realmuto are the consensus first and second choices.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!