For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.314, 0.706 — Steven Kwan batting at Colton Gordon.
- 0.312, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting at Colton Gordon.
- 0.306, 0.705 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.297, 0.691 — Abraham Toro-Hernandez batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.295, 0.701 — Jonathan Aranda batting at Keider Montero.
- 0.293, 0.691 — Jake Mangum batting at Keider Montero.
- 0.289, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Keider Montero.
- 0.287, 0.686 — Austin Hays batting vs. Janson Junk.
- 0.286, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zac Gallen.
- 0.285, 0.678 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.285, 0.684 — Jarren Duran batting vs. Austin Gomber.
The entire Cleveland offense is mired in a slump as the Guardians are in the midst of a ten-losing streak. Kwan is the best of the bunch with ten hits in the ten games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.286, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zac Gallen.
- 0.314, 0.706 — Steven Kwan batting at Colton Gordon.
- 0.312, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting at Colton Gordon.
- 0.306, 0.705 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.295, 0.701 — Jonathan Aranda batting at Keider Montero.
- 0.282, 0.700 — Trea Turner batting at Landen Roupp.
- 0.268, 0.699 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Andrew Heaney.
- 0.289, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Keider Montero.
- 0.297, 0.691 — Abraham Toro-Hernandez batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.293, 0.691 — Jake Mangum batting at Keider Montero.
Arraez collected three hits against Gallen in their careers with no walks and two strikeouts. Kwan is the consensus top pick, as Gordon allowed a .343 BABIP with a low walk rate. Batters collected 57 hits in 45 1/3 innings against the rookie. Batters seem to be good at recognizing when Gordon throws out of the strike zone and are laying off those pitches. Ramirez stands as the consensus double down pick on another low probability day.
Note that rookie Daylen Lile of the Nationals holds the current longest hit streak at 13 games, although I would not describe him as hot.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!