Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.325 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta
0.319 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Wily Peralta
0.317 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.311 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh
0.307 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver
0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.305 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson
0.303 — Jhonny Peralta batting against Wily Peralta
0.302 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright
Jhonny Peralta versus Wily Peralta? Peralta fans can only win!
The NN produces this list:
0.328, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.317, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.306, 0.724 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.291, 0.723 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Albers.
0.300, 0.723 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.311, 0.722 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh.
0.277, 0.722 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.307, 0.718 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver.
0.325, 0.718 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta.
0.278, 0.718 — Yunel Escobar batting against Timothy Adleman.
It’s looking like another Jose Altuve night.
The NN with park factored in produces this result:
0.328, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.317, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.306, 0.730 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.325, 0.727 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta.
0.291, 0.727 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Albers.
0.311, 0.726 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh.
0.277, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.300, 0.726 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.307, 0.724 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver.
It’s nice to see the youngsters filtering to the top of the list, with Corey Seager and Trea Turner the 3rd and 4th choices. Altuve and Murphy once again come up 1-2. Note that DJ LeMahieu, despite battling Murphy for the batting title, is not on the list as often as Altuve and Murphy. That’s due to LeMahieu’s higher walk rate. Plate appearances that result in walks are PA that can’t result in hits, so the probability of LeMahieu getting a hit is lower than Murphy’s, even though they have nearly the same batting average.
As always, your best picks are going to fail to get a hit about 75% of the time. Good luck!
