Tag Archives: Giovanny Urshela

February 9, 2025

Changes, (Sacramento) Athletics

Leave a reply

The Athletics (as they are officially known) made a number of acquisitions during the off-season. Here are the additions to the likely 25-man roster:

Murdock, obtained in the rule five draft, is the only player on the project 25 man roster without major league experience.

Severino and Springs slot into the top rotation slots, although neither projects as an ace. The pitchers with the five most starts for the A’s in 2024 produced 4.5 WAR. The current group projects to 5.1 WAR. It’s a tiny improvement.

Urshela likely gives them a slightly better chance at improving the team. Oakland third basemen hit .214/.288/.327 in 2024. That’s backup catcher territory. Urshela did not hit much better in 2024, .250/.286/.361, but he may have still been recovering from his 2023 broken pelvis. We’ll see how healthy he stays in 2024.

Pereda serves as the backup catcher. He is old at seasonal age 29, but in the minors in showed the ability to get on base decently.

Leclerc would appear to slide into the setup role due to his high K rate. Like most of the Athletics bullpen he tends to walk lots of batters. Murdock’s minor league numbers match that profile as well.

The Athletics made moves, it appears, to make moves. The improvements are minor. To make a bigger splash, better players will need to come from within the system.

June 13, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Once again, Corbin makes everyone a good hitter. Note that both Urshela and Vierling are fairly high average, low OBP hitters, so they tend to post hit averages closer to their batting averages.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.340, 0.732 — Gio Urshela batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.296, 0.703 — Luis Rengifo batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.285, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Nestor Cortes.
  • 0.318, 0.694 — Matt Vierling batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.267, 0.692 — Harold Ramirez batting against Justin Steele.
  • 0.303, 0.692 — Luis Garcia batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.293, 0.692 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.274, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Justin Steele.
  • 0.306, 0.684 — Andy Ibanez batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.253, 0.678 — Jose Iglesias batting against Roddery Munoz.

The two system agree on Urshela as the best bet for extending a streak. The consensus double down pick goes to Vierling. The Nationals at the Tigers kicks off at 1 PM EDT, so get your picks in early if you go that route.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 23, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Ketel Marte extended his hit streak to 21 games with a two for five against the Dodgers on Wednesday night, including a home run. Arraez owns a seven game streak, Bohm is at eight. The Diamondbacks have the day off.

It looks like it might be a good day for the Tigers. Gausman allowed 53 hits in 42 1/3 innings, a rough year for him.

The NN projects these batters to have a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.314, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.292, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.296, 0.694 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.294, 0.682 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.273, 0.678 — Elias Diaz batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.301, 0.677 — Abraham Toro-Hernandez batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.264, 0.674 — Bo Bichette batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.276, 0.672 — Adley Rutschman batting against Michael Clevinger.
  • 0.253, 0.670 — Michael Harris II batting against Ben Brown.
  • 0.261, 0.667 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Michael Clevinger.
  • 0.262, 0.667 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ben Brown.

Get your picks in this morning, as there are five early afternoon games. Arraez is the unanimous top pick, and he is three for six with a strikeout against Montas in his career. Urshela is the consensus double down choice. Note that he is batting just .182, 4 for 22 since returning from the illjured list.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 17, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

2 Replies

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Contreras currently owns a nine game hit streak, the second longest active streak in the majors. Batters produce a .423 BABIP against Brown, negating his high strikeout rate.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.351, 0.742 — William Contreras batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.260, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.298, 0.710 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.312, 0.709 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.302, 0.704 — Salvador Perez batting against Kyle Muller.
  • 0.293, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Jake Irvin.
  • 0.286, 0.697 — Mookie Betts batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.293, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kyle Muller.
  • 0.282, 0.696 — Harold Ramirez batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.287, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Bassitt.

Note the disconnect between the two systems when it comes to Arraez. Log5 sees a great pitcher like Fried limiting Arraez’s ability to produce a hit. The NN sees that Arraez is a great hitter, so his probability of getting a hit in a game is high even if he is facing a great pitcher. What Fried does is knock Arraez out of the top slot. By the way, Arraez is three for five with a walk, HBP, and a K against Fried.

The two systems agree on Contreras as the top pick, with Urshela the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The top three on this list are also the top three in the NL batting race. Opponents own a .347 BABIP against Webb this season.

Gio Urshela came off the illjured list on Tuesday and returns to the top ten in the Log5 Method as well.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of getting a hit:

  • 0.322, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.334, 0.729 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.325, 0.725 — William Contreras batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.323, 0.718 — Mookie Betts batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.313, 0.709 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.300, 0.706 — Freddie Freeman batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.278, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.277, 0.693 — Alec Bohm batting against Joey Lucchesi.
  • 0.304, 0.689 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.259, 0.688 — Harold Ramirez batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.304, 0.688 — Andy Ibanez batting against Trevor Rogers.

The same top four in a different order. Both Ohtani and Betts hit Webb well, but Betts is based on a much bigger sample. Betts versus Webb is also a nice example of the Log5 Method working, as the actual hit average of the pair is .333 (9/27). Betts walked once against Webb and struck out twice, so the ball gets put in play.

Ohtani is the consensus top pick with Arraez and Contreras tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Harris hit in each of his last five games. He also hit in eight of his ten games this season with a .350/.409/.600 slash line. He accomplished that despite ten strikeouts.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.271, 0.694 — Michael Harris II batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.261, 0.686 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.255, 0.682 — Jose Altuve batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.265, 0.678 — Corey Seager batting against JP Sears.
  • 0.256, 0.676 — Ronald Acuna batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.257, 0.674 — Jarren Duran batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.264, 0.671 — William Contreras batting against Nick Martinez.
  • 0.254, 0.669 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Garrett Whitlock.
  • 0.266, 0.668 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.248, 0.665 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Brady Singer.

The two systems agree on Harris as the top pick Urhsela and Seager tie for consensus double down choice. The probabilities remain low as the league hit average (H/PA) is just .214, and all players for the 2024 season are still highly regressed toward that mean.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. If you love Beat the Streak Picks, please consider a $5 or $10 donation to help defray the cost of the statistics used here.

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Arraez is off to a poor start this season, with a .185/.333/.222 slash line. He’s getting on base, but usually he does that mostly with hits. His long-term numbers, however, continue to make him the best pick.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.268, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting against Lance Lynn.
  • 0.263, 0.680 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.254, 0.667 — Joey Meneses batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.256, 0.665 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Michael Soroka.
  • 0.243, 0.663 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jose Butto.
  • 0.253, 0.661 — Luis Garcia batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.254, 0.659 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.240, 0.657 — Josh Naylor batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.254, 0.655 — Brendan Donovan batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.241, 0.650 — Steven Kwan batting against Pablo Lopez.

Meneses is a player who I would not expect to appear in the list. He strikes out a ton, but doesn’t walk much. His strength is that when he make contact, his BABIP is very high.

Arraez and Urshela are the consensus double down picks on a day without much action.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 21, 2023

Urshela Done

Leave a reply

Gio Urshela of the Angles will miss the rest of the season due to his broken hip:

Urshela fractured his left pelvis in the fall. The Colombian veteran has seen two specialists to determine he won’t need surgery, but the rest and recovery time necessary to heal are likely to prevent him from playing again in 2023, Nevin said.

ESPN.com

Fans of Beat the Streak know that Urshela was the type of high BA, low OBP hitter that did well as a pick. He was the type of hitter you wanted at the plate when the team needed a hit.

June 10, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It looks like a good day for the Rockies as Weathers allowed 146 in 133 2/3 innings in his short career. Hayes, this season, is a high hit, low walk player, making him a good candidate to extend a streak. He accomplishes this despite striking out a ton.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.270, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against Michael Kopech.
  • 0.272, 0.708 — Freddie Freeman batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Bryan Woo.
  • 0.259, 0.705 — Bo Bichette batting against Joe Ryan.
  • 0.296, 0.700 — Randal Grichuk batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.284, 0.699 — Yonathan Daza batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.291, 0.698 — Thairo Estrada batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.255, 0.698 — Joey Meneses batting against Jared Shuster.
  • 0.298, 0.696 — Austin Hays batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.286, 0.696 — Harold Castro batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.269, 0.696 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Boyd.

There’s quite the disagreement between the two lists today. Arraez and Freeman rank 1-2 here, but neither makes the Log5 top ten. Hays drops to ninth here. Urshela and Grichuk actually tie for the consensus top pick. Arraez is 3 for 9 with no strikeouts against Kopech. Freeman owns a .232/.312/.377 slash line against Nola in 77 PA.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 10, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

This is one of the situations where the pitcher is so poor that it doesn’t really matter who is facing him. Since the start of the 2020 season, Corbin turned his average opponent into a superstar. They are batting .306/.359/.510 against him. So if Corbin is pitching, take the best hitter on the opposition. While most people don’t think of Urshela as the best hitter on the Angels, he puts the ball in play a lot, and that works really well against Corbin.

Here are the NN picks:

The NN puts the most weight on the three-year batter hit average, and still Urshela comes out on top. Mike Trout is the consensus double down choice.

Note that the first two ten-game hits streaks of the season belong to the Joses, Jose Abreu and Jose Ramirez.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 14, 2022

Wheeling and Dealing

Leave a reply

The Yankees and Twins make a trade:

Isiah Kiner-Falefa thought he had found a new home with the Minnesota Twins. Less than 24 hours later, he was traded to the New York Yankees alongside former American League MVP Josh Donaldson and catcher Ben Rortvedt in exchange for catcher Gary Sanchez and infielder Gio Urshela.

ESPN.com

So the Gary Sanchez distraction is gone, and the Yankees shore of the defense on the left side of the infield, something that hurt them last season. Donaldson is no longer an MVP caliber player, but is still productive. DJ LeMahieu will likely fight Luke Voit for the first base role. Given Giancarlo Stanton‘s injury history, LeMeahieu may get plenty of time at DH.

The Twins get a solid player in Urshela, save some money on Donaldson. Sanchez is a project. He’s in his last year of his prime, and now out of sight of the negativity of the New York press. We will how he does.

The Twins also acquired Sonny Gray from the Reds on Sunday, trading away their first round draft choice:

The Twins took their first significant step toward restocking their rotation on Sunday, acquiring the right-hander Gray on Sunday in a trade that sent pitching prospect Chase Petty to the Reds. The Reds included minor league right-hander Francis Peguero in the deal for Petty, who was the 26th overall selection as a high-schooler last summer.

AlbertaTribune.com

This is a bit of a rental for Minnesota, as Gray’s contract is up at the end of the season, although the Twins an option on him. Peguero shows great control in the minors, although his progress up the ranks has been very slow.

October 3, 2021 October 3, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

5 Replies

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

It might be a good day to double down on the Reds. It’s also a good day for teams playing game that don’t effect the post-season races to trot out youngsters, so check the lineups!

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.326, 0.756 — Tim Anderson batting against Tyler Alexander.
  • 0.331, 0.745 — Michael Brantley batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.345, 0.738 — Nick Castellanos batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.321, 0.735 — Luis Robert batting against Tyler Alexander.
  • 0.297, 0.731 — Ketel Marte batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.280, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against Aaron Ashby.
  • 0.315, 0.722 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.306, 0.722 — Bo Bichette batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
  • 0.303, 0.711 — Byron Buxton batting against Jackson Kowar.
  • 0.306, 0.710 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Michael Wacha.

The NN values Keller’s poor pitching less than Log5. Anderson,Brantley, and Castellanos tie for the top spot, but Turner, Bichette, and Urshela are playing competitive games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 2, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

I seldom see Wong in the top ten of this list, let alone in the number one slot. Wilson, however, is a low strikeout, high BABIP pitcher, so good hitters can have success against him. Wong’s strikeout rate is low for this era, so it’s a good match.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.297, 0.744 — Ketel Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.314, 0.728 — David Fletcher batting against Dane Dunning.
  • 0.307, 0.719 — Bo Bichette batting against Elijah Morgan.
  • 0.317, 0.717 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.300, 0.715 — Jose Iglesias batting against Dane Dunning.
  • 0.320, 0.708 — Kolten Wong batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.291, 0.707 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.305, 0.707 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.302, 0.705 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Elijah Morgan.
  • 0.287, 0.694 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.270, 0.694 — Buster Posey batting against Taylor Widener.

Marte might have led the year in topping this list without the injuries. He came up a lot while on the illjured list. David Fletcher is the consensus first pick, Urshela the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 16, 2021

Six Sick Yankees

Leave a reply

The Yankees send six player to the illjured list with COVID-19:

It was confirmed Thursday that New York Yankees pitchers Jonathan Loaisiga, Nestor Cortes Jr. and Wandy Peralta were positive COVID-19 cases, and ESPN reported Friday that All-Star Aaron Judge, third baseman Gio Urshela and catcher Kyle Higashioka are also positive for the coronavirus. 

None of them will be taking the field anytime soon. 

YardBarker.com

They are all expected to miss ten days. This makes it much tougher for the Yankees to come back in the AL East. These are not scrubs.

The question now is do the Yankees use this as an opportunity to trade and rebuild? This version of the team did not play up to expectations. It might be the time to be sellers and try to grab some talent for the future.

July 15, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

There is just one game tonight, the Red Sox at the Yankees. Rodriguez is one of two pitchers Urshela faced at least 20 times in his career. He owns six hits in those twenty PA, so his hit average against Rodriguez is .300, pretty close to the .307 prediction.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.292, 0.715 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.307, 0.709 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.299, 0.706 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.267, 0.679 — Rafael Devers batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.266, 0.678 — Alex Verdugo batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.267, 0.672 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.284, 0.670 — Aaron Judge batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.255, 0.659 — Christian Vazquez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.271, 0.649 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.262, 0.642 — Luke Voit batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.

The source I use has Montgomery pitching for the Yankees, but New York has not made an official announcement about the starter. Bogaerts comes out on top in this calculation. Bogaerts is 9 for 17 against Montgomery for his career with one walk and just two strikeouts, so this looks like a pretty good match-up for extending a hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 17, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Note that Stanton is hurt but not on the illjured list. The list is full of Yankees as Lyles allowed a .295 BA so far this season. Making the match-up even better for Judge and Stanton, Lyles allows over two home runs per nine innings this year.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.286, 0.735 — Tim Anderson batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.308, 0.719 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles.
  • 0.312, 0.715 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jordan Lyles.
  • 0.287, 0.710 — Jose Iglesias batting against Sam D Hentges.
  • 0.267, 0.707 — Trea Turner batting against Adbert Alzolay.
  • 0.305, 0.703 — Jesse Winker batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.302, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.263, 0.680 — Luis Arraez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.281, 0.680 — Jared Walsh batting against Sam D Hentges.
  • 0.268, 0.679 — Nelson Cruz batting against Dallas Keuchel.

For the second day in a row, the league wide hit average for position players ticked up, now to .213. More hits across the league should lead to higher probabilities down the road. Anderson picked up three more hits yesterday and continues rank high in the NN.

Urshela and LeMahieu are tied for the consensus first picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 16, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Log5 Method suggests it’s a good day to pick a Yankees hitter. Since 2019, Wacha allowed a .296 BA.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.311, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.292, 0.701 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.274, 0.700 — Jose Iglesias batting against Lewis Thorpe.
  • 0.273, 0.697 — Whit Merrifield batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.278, 0.694 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.265, 0.691 — Hanser Alberto batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.262, 0.689 — Donovan Solano batting against Daniel Castano.
  • 0.264, 0.688 — Luis Arraez batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.262, 0.687 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dylan Cease.
  • 0.266, 0.685 — Nelson Cruz batting against Andrew Heaney.

The two systems agree on the 1-2 picks, LeMahieu and Urshela.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Please support Baseball Musings with a donation to the 2021 Pledge Drive.

December 9, 2020

Delayed Surgery

Leave a reply

A Covid-19 infection delayed elbow surgery for Gio Urshela:

The delay for the surgery could impact Urshela’s readiness for the 2021 season, given that the Yankees announced a three-month recovery period for him. Then again, odds stand as low that spring training will start on time as the COVID vaccine deliberately makes its way through the country and the world. Yet even if the season does begin as scheduled, with the Yankees supposed to open at home against the Blue Jays on April 1, Urshela thinks he can ramp up in time for that. 

NYPost.com

Urshela says he was sick for three days, then had to wait to test negative to fly to the United States for the procedure. He’s also made a deal to distribute free hand sanitizer in Columbia in an effort to give back.

September 30, 2020

G Stands for Grand

Leave a reply

With the Indians leading the Yankees 4-1 in the top of the fourth inning, Gio Urshela comes up with the bases loaded and launches a grand slam deep into the leftfield stands. He is 7 for 20 in his career (regular season) with the bases loaded with a double, home run, and two walks. The Yankees now lead 5-4 as they try to sweep the Indians.

August 3, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Urshela may turn out to be the best move Brian Cashman ever made. So far in 2020, he’s proving 2019 was not a fluke.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.291, 0.713 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.267, 0.691 — Jeff McNeil batting against Michael Soroka.
  • 0.275, 0.690 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.263, 0.687 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.257, 0.671 — Donovan Solano batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
  • 0.266, 0.669 — Leury Garcia batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.247, 0.666 — Wilmer Flores batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
  • 0.263, 0.665 — Yoan Moncada batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.245, 0.664 — Nick Castellanos batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.253, 0.663 — J.D. Davis batting against Michael Soroka.
  • 0.240, 0.663 — Whit Merrifield batting against Alec Mills.
  • 0.250, 0.663 — Daniel Murphy batting against Johnny Cueto.

Both systems agree on LeMahieu as the top pick, with McNeil and Urshela tied for the consensus second pick. I’m surprised anyone lists as expected to do well against Soroka.

Donovan Solano leads the NL in batting average at .484. His probability of hitting .400 for the season stands at 0.0043. At this point he would need to go 0 for 8 to fall below .400.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

October 19, 2019

The Ur Home Run

Leave a reply

Gio Urshela hits a one-out home run in the top of the fourth inning to cut the Astros lead over the Yankees to 3-2. Jose Urquidy is on to pitch for the Astros as Ryan Pressly was hurt at the end of the top of the third inning.

Brett Gardner singles to follow the home run.

Update: A fly ball and a strikeout end the inning, and Houston retains the lead.

September 12, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There are lots of afternoon game today, so be aware of who starts and who rests. The Yankees and Tigers play an old-fashioned afternoon double header, so be aware when picking players from those games as well. Blackmon is 2 for 10 against Mikloas.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.321, 0.750 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.310, 0.750 — Howie Kendrick batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.304, 0.746 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.310, 0.743 — Michael Brantley batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.292, 0.739 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.317, 0.739 — Tim Anderson batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.300, 0.732 — Jose Altuve batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.285, 0.732 — Hanser Alberto batting against Rich Hill.
  • 0.294, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.304, 0.729 — Nolan Arenado batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.299, 0.729 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.308, 0.729 — Ketel Marte batting against Marcus Stroman.

The two systems agree on Blackmon as the first choice, with Howie Kendrick the consensus second choice. You could double down with just Ursehela as well.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 10, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Urshela returned from the illjured list Monday night and homered against the Red Sox. Jackson allows a .361 BABIP this season, so the Yankees might have a good night.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.359, 0.772 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Edwin Jackson.
  • 0.347, 0.757 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
  • 0.318, 0.747 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.328, 0.744 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.315, 0.739 — Tim Anderson batting against Jakob Junis.
  • 0.339, 0.738 — Donovan Solano batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.304, 0.736 — Michael Brantley batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.291, 0.736 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.295, 0.733 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.305, 0.732 — Corey Dickerson batting against Max Fried.

If we were just basing picks on the 2019 season, Tim Anderson would be number one. With a .334 league leading BA and a .354 OBP, Anderson doesn’t walk much. His 93 strikeouts are on the load side for today’s hitters. He’s putting the ball in play with good results.

Urshela and LeMahieu are the unanimous 1-2 picks.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 30, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

It looks like a good day for the Pirates, and not just because they are in Colorado. Senzatela gives up a high BABIP without many strikeouts. His K per 9 IP is the second lowest in the majors this season among pitchers with 90 innings. Fewer Ks mean more balls in play.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.321, 0.756 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.331, 0.750 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.316, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.313, 0.746 — Michael Brantley batting against Trent Thornton.
  • 0.329, 0.744 — Tim Anderson batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.324, 0.740 — Kevin Newman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.323, 0.738 — Rafael Devers batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.296, 0.736 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Dario Agrazal.
  • 0.315, 0.735 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.283, 0.734 — Howie Kendrick batting against Elieser Hernandez.

Urshela pops to the top here, but Reynolds is the consensus first pick. Urshela hits .350/.380/.548 at home this season. Note the small gap between his BA and OBP, indicating hit OBP is almost entirely hits.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 27, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The unsuspected Yankees stars Urshela and LeMahieu do well in the rankings once again. Solano owns a .419 BABIP this season and doesn’t walk much, and that’s enough to bring him to the top of the list against Mike Leake, who allows a .308 BABIP and doesn’t walk many batters.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.330, 0.760 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.324, 0.755 — Howie Kendrick batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.325, 0.750 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.341, 0.744 — Donovan Solano batting against Mike Leake.
  • 0.305, 0.740 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.316, 0.736 — Christian Yelich batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.308, 0.732 — Anthony Rendon batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.306, 0.730 — Tim Anderson batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.270, 0.730 — Jeff McNeil batting against Yu Darvish.
  • 0.301, 0.727 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Drew Smyly.

It’s impressive that Michael Brantley did not make the list. He faces Charlie Morton, whose one and three-year opposition hit averages calculate to .195 and .193. That gives Brantley a .714 probability of extending his hit streak.

Urshela is the consensus first pick, with Solano the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 26, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Urshela owns a .398/.429/.699 slash line in August, with 37 hits and just four walks. He’s collected hits in 19 of the 23 games he played.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.328, 0.758 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Matt Wisler.
  • 0.320, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Wisler.
  • 0.297, 0.726 — Corey Dickerson batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.297, 0.725 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.295, 0.725 — Whit Merrifield batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.297, 0.717 — Ketel Marte batting against Tyler Beede.
  • 0.289, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.270, 0.710 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jason Vargas.
  • 0.276, 0.709 — Donovan Solano batting against Alex Young.
  • 0.291, 0.707 — Wilmer Flores batting against Tyler Beede.
  • 0.247, 0.707 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Julio Teheran.

It looks like the night to double down on Yankees, with both systems agreeing on Urshela and LeMahieu as one and two.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 20, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Homer Bailey.
0.320 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brian Johnson.
0.318 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.
0.316 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Homer Bailey.
0.315 — Ketel Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.314 — Wilmer Flores batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.313 — Jean Segura batting against Brian Johnson.
0.307 — Tim Anderson batting against Michael Pineda.
0.304 — Daniel Santana batting against Jaime Barria.
0.299 — Luis Arraez batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.298 — Keston Hiura batting against Michael Wacha.
0.298 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brian Johnson.

Santana left the Rangers game Monday night with an injury. In addition, Texas hosts the Angels in a double header today, so be careful picking players from those teams. Homer Bailey may live up to his first name tonight against the Yankees.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.320, 0.757 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.316, 0.749 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.320, 0.737 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brian Johnson.
  • 0.318, 0.737 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.307, 0.731 — Tim Anderson batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.284, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.313, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Brian Johnson.
  • 0.286, 0.729 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Archer.
  • 0.282, 0.725 — Hanser Alberto batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.274, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Young.

The two systems agree on Gio Urshela in the top slot. Corey Dickerson is the consensus second pick. Yelich is four for 14 career against Wacha.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 15, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

1 Reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Remember Moneyball and Scott Hatteberg? Oakland recognized a market inefficiency regarding Hatteberg. He could hit, but he could no longer catch. The A’s turned him into a position player, and they got a good bat cheap.

Richer teams didn’t need to do that. They could simply buy or trade for know quantities. The A’s method, however, was efficient, and teams with more resources might do even better. Over the last few years we’ve seen the Dodgers and Yankees take players who didn’t seem to be going anywhere in their careers and turn them into good major league hitters. Gio Urshela is just the latest example of the big money teams exploiting their scouting and analytics to get good players cheap, and make their team even more money.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.321, 0.751 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Adam Plutko.
  • 0.318, 0.746 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Plutko.
  • 0.270, 0.720 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.306, 0.717 — Jose Iglesias batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.261, 0.711 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.284, 0.710 — Javier Baez batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.303, 0.709 — Phillip Ervin batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.272, 0.709 — Daniel Santana batting against Devin Smeltzer.
  • 0.278, 0.708 — Tim Anderson batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.276, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Pedro Payano.
  • 0.261, 0.708 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.281, 0.708 — Freddie Freeman batting against Marcus Stroman.

It’s a Yankees double down day with Urshela and LeMahieu. Note that Plutko has a low BABIP, but also a low K rate and a high HR rate. So the good defense behind him is balanced by lots of balls in play.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 12, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The Orioles play a split admission double header against the Yankees today, so be careful picking players from those games. You could double down with Gio Urshela, who is hot in August. He might start just one game, however.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.317, 0.750 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.329, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tom Eshelman.
  • 0.318, 0.744 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gabriel Ynoa.
  • 0.320, 0.737 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Tom Eshelman.
  • 0.330, 0.735 — Ketel Marte batting against Peter Lambert.
  • 0.310, 0.734 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Gabriel Ynoa.
  • 0.296, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Cease.
  • 0.307, 0.726 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.302, 0.724 — Anthony Rendon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.288, 0.724 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Cease.

Jose Altuve once dominated this list the way Jeff McNeil does. Nice to see him starting to work his way back up. LeMahieu against Eshelman is the consensus first pick, with Blackmon and Marte tied for second.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!