Tag Archives: Francisco Liriano

August 22, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.301 — David Peralta batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.300 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.299 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Eflin.
0.293 — Buster Posey batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.288 — Michael Brantley batting against Brian Johnson.
0.286 — Miguel Andujar batting against Trevor Richards.
0.284 — Alen Hanson batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.284 — Austin Jackson batting against Casey Kelly.
0.282 — J.D. Martinez batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.277 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jacob Nix.
0.277 — A.J. Pollock batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.277 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Trevor Richards.
0.277 — Jon Jay batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.276 — Mookie Betts batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.275 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.274 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jakob Junis.
0.274 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.273 — Alex Bregman batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.272 — Wilmer Flores batting against Casey Kelly.
0.272 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jacob Nix.
0.272 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob Nix.
0.272 — Joey Wendle batting against Jakob Junis.
0.272 — Jose Ramirez batting against Brian Johnson.
0.271 — Freddie Freeman batting against Trevor Williams.
0.271 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.

Jose Altuve is back, and went 0 for 3 with a walk in his return from the disabled list Tuesday night. He is usually a very good pick. Note that my program thinks that Daniel Murphy plays for the Nationals until he actually plays a game for the Cubs.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.332, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.299, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Eflin.
0.282, 0.721 — J.D. Martinez batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.301, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.300, 0.719 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.288, 0.713 — Michael Brantley batting against Brian Johnson.
0.286, 0.712 — Miguel Andujar batting against Trevor Richards.
0.276, 0.708 — Mookie Betts batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.277, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jacob Nix.
0.247, 0.707 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton.
0.274, 0.706 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.277, 0.705 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Trevor Richards.
0.293, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.272, 0.704 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob Nix.
0.265, 0.704 — Jose Martinez batting against Walker Buehler.
0.265, 0.704 — Albert Almora batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.271, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269, 0.701 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.284, 0.700 — Austin Jackson batting against Casey Kelly.
0.272, 0.700 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jacob Nix.
0.272, 0.696 — Jose Ramirez batting against Brian Johnson.
0.267, 0.694 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.266, 0.693 — Christian Yelich batting against Robert Stephenson.
0.270, 0.692 — Melky Cabrera batting against Brian Johnson.
0.274, 0.692 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jakob Junis.

If Murphy plays for the Cubs tonight against Francisco Liriano, his probability of getting a hit in the game would be .724. David Peralta should be the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

April 22, 2018

Better No-Hitter

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Francisco Liriano is throwing a no-hitter against the Royals through five innings. It might already be better than his last no-hitter, in which he walked six and struck out two. He walked three but struck out six so far.

In the other no-hitter, despite, the six walks, Liriano did only face 30 batters, so half of those walks disappeared on base.

The Tigers lead the Royals 2-0 in the bottom of the fifth inning.

Update: Whit Merrifield leads off the sixth with a home run.

April 17, 2018

Games of the Day

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There are some pitchers with good ERAs on the mound on Tuesday, but they may not be as good as they loook.

Andrew Cashner takes on Francisco Liriano as the Orioles and Tigers try to play a game in Detroit. Cashner allowed four of his six runs on solo homers, and his three-true outcomes make me believe his 2.50 ERA will head higher. Liriano’s walks and strikeouts are very close, five walks and seven K in 12 2/3 innings, but he managed to allow just seven hits.

The Rockies and Pirates play game two of their series as Chad Bettis faces Trevor Williams. Bettis, like Liriano, has two many walks and too few strikeouts to go with his excellent ERA. He allowed just 12 hits in 17 2/3 innings but walked eight. Williams is the third of these on the list. He allowed 14 hits and seven walks in 17 1/3 innings, but allowed just three runs.

The Indians and Twins play in Puerto Rico, and island baseball fans get a great match up as Corey Kluber faces Jake Odorizzi. Kluber does his ERA right, with 27 K and four walks in 23 innings. Odorizzi, however, keeps with the theme, allowing 12 hits and 10 walks in 16 1/3 innings, but just four runs.

You may want to stay of late Tuesday night as David Price leads the Red Sox against the Angels and Shohei Ohtani. Price only lasted an inning against the Yankees in his last start, but the discomfort in his pitching hand did not last. He’s holding right-handed batters to a .158/.256/.316 slash line. Ohtani opened his career showing his three-true outcomes credentials with 18 K, two BB, and one HR.

Enjoy!

April 9, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Cubs become the last team to open at home as they host the Pirates. Ivan Nova takes on Tyler Chatwood. Nova is off to a poor start in 2018, with a 6.10 ERA in 10 1/3 innings. He walked four batters already, after walking 36 in all of 2017. Chatwood walked six in his six inning first start, but only allowed one run as opponents went one for nine with runners in scoring position.

The evening sees Francisco Lirano and Detroit facing Corey Kluber and Cleveland. Lirano had some bad luck in Cleveland over the years. Despite striking out 54 batters in 39 1/3 innings, his ERA stands at 4.81. He gave up 44 hits and 25 walks. It seems to be an all or nothing park for Liriano. Kluber is pitching great, but the Indians scored just three runs for him this season in two games.

The red hot Braves invade D.C. as Julio Teheran faces Max Scherzer. The Braves scored seven runs or more in five of their nine games played. That includes a game in which they scored five runs off Scherzer. Scherzer was hurt by an error in that game, but his three-true outcomes are great, with one home run, three walks, and seventeen strikeouts in 11 IP.

Enjoy!

July 31, 2017

The Plan for Liriano

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The Blue Jays traded Francisco Liriano to the Astros for Nori Aoki and a outfield prospect Teoscar Hernandez. Liriano will relieve:

Liriano has appeared in 303 major league games, but he has started 274 of those games. This would be a rare role for him. But at a time when the asking prices are reportedly high on lefty relievers like Brad Hand, this could be a stealthy addition for the Astros.

Liriano has still done one thing exceptionally and consistently well this year and throughout his career: he’s neutralized left-handed batters. He’s limited lefties to a .262 wOBA and a .230/.254/.361 slash line in 2017. For his career, he’s limited lefties to a .272 wOBA and a .219/.294/.305 slash line.

So the Astros get a LOOGY who can also do long relief? This is going to be interesting.

October 8, 2016

Liriano Heads Out

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Blue Jays pitcher Francisco Liriano suffered a concussion and will be out at least seven days:

Right-hander Danny Barnes will replace Liriano, who left in the eighth inning Friday after being hit in the back of the head by Carlos Gomez‘s line drive.

Liriano is not eligible to return for seven days.

The ALCS starts Friday, so if the Blue Jays with their ALDS, they may need to put Liriano on the roster before he is allowed to pitch.

September 28, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Mariners send James Paxton against the Astros and Doug Fister as both teams try to stay alive in the AL Wild Card race. Paxton allowed eight runs in 12 innings against Houston this year. Fister allowed 16 runs in 21 innings against Seattle. It may be the slugfest of the day.

The Red Sox try to clinch the AL East for the second day in a row as Clay Buchholz takes on the Yankees and Bryan Mitchell. Buchholz pitched well in three of his last four starts, and seems to be moving in the right direction. Opponents are hitting .329/.388/.466 against Mitchell in a small sample size of at bats in 2016.

Chris Tillman and Francisco Liriano square off as the Blue Jays and Orioles continue their series in Toronto. Tillman’s ERA is about one and a half runs lower on the road. Liriano allowed seven home runs in 43 innings since joining the Blue Jays.

Enjoy!

September 23, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Yankees start a four-game series in Toronto as Bryan Mitchell takes on Francisco Liriano. The Yankees are in need of a sweep of the Friday-Monday four game series if they want to make the post-season. Mitchell shutout Toronto in his first start of the season on 9/7, but pitched poorly since. Liriano found his control after moving from the Pirates to the Blue Jays, but allowed seven home runs in 37 innings.

Danny Duffy and the Royals try to throw a road block in front of the Tigers playoff push against Michael Fulmer. Duffy owns a 4.15 ERA in September. He is allowing a ton of hits despite striking out 32 batters in 26 innings. Fulmer also hit a wall in September with a 5.50 ERA. He allowed three home runs in his last 18 innings.

A Rangers win or a Houston loss gives the Rangers the AL West title. Cole Hamels goes for his 15th win against the Athletics and Kendall Graveman. Hamels owns the road with a 9-3 record and 2.57 ERA. Graveman induces contact. He owns low walk and strike out rates. Unfortunately for him, that contact often leads to home runs.

Enjoy!

August 19, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Pirates and Marlins rank third and fourth respectively in the NL Wild Card race, separated by one game. The meet in Pittsburgh as Tom Koehler takes on Gerrit Cole. Koehler pitched well since the All-Star Break, posting a 2.19 ERA. He walked 10 and struck out 32 in 37 innings in that time frame. Cole comes into the game with just three home runs allowed in 102 1/3 innings. That’s the lowest rate in the majors for pitchers with at least 100 IP.

Division leaders meet in Cleveland as Toronto sends Francisco Liriano against Trevor Bauer. Liriano pitched poorly for Pittsburgh, posting an ERA well over 5.00 with too many walks and home runs allowed. His ERA is still very high with Toronto, as he allowed two home runs in 11 2/3 innings. The four walks allowed is not that bad. Bauer gives up more power at home, opponents slugging .416 against him in Cleveland, .349 on the road.

Rick Porcello goes for his 17th win as the Red Sox face Detroit and rookie sensation Michael Fulmer. Porcello pitched for the Tigers from 2009 through 2014, his last year there setting his previous high in wins, 15. He’s striking out batters at a much higher rate than in that season. Fulmer makes just his sixth start at home, compared to 14 on the road. He owns a 1.41 ERA so far in Detroit.

Tanner Roark of the Nationals and Julio Teheran of the Braves face each other with identical 2.81 ERAs. Roark, pitching for a good team, is 13-6. Teheran, pitching for a bad team, is 3-9. Here is a side-by-side comparison. Teheran is better at striking out and walking batters, Roark is much better keeping the ball in the park. This is one of the best examples of wins and losses being as much a team stat as a pitcher stat.

Finally, I’m on my way to Denver for the Saturday night game between the Cubs and Rockies. They get things started this evening with Kyle Hendricks taking on Tyler Anderson. Kendricks pitched twice at Coors, with one good start and one poor one. He has yet to allow a home run there in 12 1/3 innings. True rookie Anderson makes his 13th start overall and ninth at home. He owns a 3.04 ERA at Coors, with 46 K and 13 BB in 50 1/3 home innings. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher, and that’s working for him so far.

Enjoy!

August 1, 2016

Pitchers for the Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays acquired three pitchers in three separate deals, Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, and Mike Bolsinger. Aaron Sanchez, who is the leading Al Cy Young candidate right now, will likely be moved to the bullpen due to innings constraints. This gives the Blue Jays tons of starting depth, although Feldman is the only one of the three pitching well this season.

July 15, 2016

Games of the Day

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Two first place teams kick off the post All-Star Break run as the Rangers and Cubs battle in Chicago Friday afternoon. Martin Perez takes on Kyle Hendricks. A world series between these two clubs would end one of two long championship droughts (that’s why I’m rooting for any combination of Cubs-Nationals vs. Indians-Rangers-Astros). Perez comes into the game with a 3.85 ERA, pretty good for a pitcher who walked 46 and struck out just 52 in 107 2/3 innings. Sometimes pitchers can get away with those stats in parity, but usually one when one of them is very good. That’s not the case here. Hendricks does the walks and strikeouts just right, with 86 K and 27 BB in 98 2/3 innings. Eight of his 36 runs allowed were unearned.

The Pirates visit the Nationals as Francisco Liriano faces Stephen Strasburg. Lirano’s ERA is up over 1.8 runs versus 2015 to 5.15. He doubled his home run rate and is walking two more batters per nine innings. In five career starts versus the Pirates, Strasburg struck out 54 batters in 35 innings, walking just six.

Seattle tries to gain back some ground on Houston as the Mariners host the Astros with Doug Fister against James Paxton. Fister’s three true outcomes aren’t much different than his 2015 season, but his ERA is lower due to many fewer hits allowed. His opposition BABIP dropped from .310 to .254, and his ERA dropped despite a rise in his FIP. He looks to me like the same pitcher with better defense behind him. Paxton could use some help from his defense, as he allowed a .390 BABIP. His FIP and xFIP show a huge split, 2.99 and 3.71 respectively. Both are lower than his 3.91 ERA.

Enjoy!

June 17, 2016

Games of the Day

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Francisco Liriano face Jake Arrieta as the Pirates try to gain on the Cubs. Liriano’s ERA is up more than a run and a half as opponents are pounding him with home runs. He allowed 15 HR in 186 2/3 innings in 2015. So far this season, he allowed 13 HR in just 67 2/3 innings. Arrieta goes for his 11th win after his first loss since 7/25/2015. In the last calendar year, he is 26-2 with a 1.23 ERA in 33 starts.

The White Sox send Jose Quintana against the Indians and Trevor Bauer. Quintana pitched to some bad luck this year, with a 5-7 record and a 2.66 ERA. He struck out 44 and allowed just one home run in 42 1/3 innings on the road. Bauer owns a 4.75 ERA at home. He allowed four of his six home runs in Cleveland.

The Giants, who were once supposed to move to Tampa Bay, try to beat the Rays with Jeff Samardzija. Chris Archer takes the hill for the Rays. Samardzija pitched well in his two career starts against the Rays, but did not get a decision. Archer is giving up home runs at a prodigious rate, 15 in his first 80 innings. He allowed 19 home runs in 212 innings last season.

Finally, Joe Ross battles Christian Friedrich as the Nationals face the Padres. Ross is not suffering a sophomore slump, as he has a lower ERA than his 2015 rookie season. After this start, his IP should be about the same as 2015, and his three-true outcomes are right in line with last season as well. Friedrich currently owns an ERA three runs below his career average. The move from Colorado to San Diego seemed to help.

Enjoy!

May 13, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Pirates stand seven games behind the Cubs are they visit Chicago for an afternoon game against the Cubs. Francisco Liriano takes on Jason Hammel. Liriano showed control and home run issues early this season, allowing five home runs and 19 walks in 35 innings. His high strikeout rate led to a low opposition batting average, which limits the damage. Hammel looks to go 5-0 as controlling his home runs allowed helped him to a 1.85 ERA so far in 2016.

The first place White Sox send their ace Chris Sale against the Yankees and struggling youngster Luis Severino. Sale goes for his eighth win in eight starts. Sale posts an extremely low BABIP, 206. The White Sox are a good, but not great, defensive team, so Sale may be due for a regression as ball start finding holes. On the other hand, his line drive percentage is way down, so he may be doing a better job of inducing poor contact. Severino represents a perfect example of luck in small sample sizes. He posted an ERA of 2.89 in 62 1/3 innings last season with an xFIP of 3.72. He owns a 6.12 ERA in 32.1 innings in 2016 with a 3.41 xFIP. Severino improved, but his luck changed.

My daughter will be at Fenway tonight as Lance McCullers makes his 2016 debut for the Astros against Steven Wright. McCullers suffered shoulder pain that kept him on the shelf until now. He struck out 11 in eight innings in his two rehab starts. Wright is the new knuckle ball sensation, putting up power-pitcher like strikeout numbers. That combined with the difficulty of making good contact with that pitch has opponents hitting .172 against him with a .248 slugging percentage.

The Angels try to end their six-game losing streak and gain on the first-place Mariners as Nick Tropeano faces Nathan Karns in Seattle. Tropeano continues to blow away batters, but his walks and home runs allowed are way up from last season. It has not hurt his ERA yet as opponents are 3 for 24 against him with runners in scoring position. Karns, a right-handed pitcher, has done better against left-handed batters this season.

Enjoy!

April 8, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Yankees help the Tigers open at home with Luis Severino facing new addition Jordan Zimmermann. Severino posted a nice ERA in his rookie campaign, 2.89 thanks to a very good performance with runners in scoring position. His walk and strikeout rates were good but not great, but his home run rate was high. Six of those nine dingers came with the bases empty, however. Zimmermann moves to the American League. He’s been consistently healthy the last four seasons, making at least 32 starts in each. In that time he posted a 3.13 ERA while walking just 1.7 batters per nine innings.

The Indians travel to Chicago to play the White Sox, both teams hoping for an AL Central title. Danny Salazar takes on John Danks. Salazar in three seasons proved to be a power pitcher with good control, but he tends to give up the long ball. Danks owns consistently high ERAs over the last five seasons. He tends to put a few too many runners on base, then give up a good bit of power.

One undefeated NL Central team will fall today as the Pirates visit the Reds. Francisco Liriano takes on Alfredo Simon. Lirano pitched six shutout innings against the Cardinals in the season opener, despite walking five batters. Then strikeouts helped strand those runners. Simon returns to the Reds after a poor 2015 performance in Detroit. It may have been regression to the mean, as Simon’s excellent 2014 ERA was well below his FIP.

Enjoy!

April 3, 2016

K Day for Liriano

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Francisco Liriano is blowing away the Cardinals with nine strikeouts through five innings. He also walked, three, sticking to his pattern of power with a bit of wildness. He’s not wasting pitches however, as he only three 73 so far despite all the non-contact plate appearances.

The Pirates lead the Cardinals 2-0 in the bottom of the fifth inning.

April 3, 2016 April 3, 2016

Games of the Day

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The 2016 MLB season gets underway at 1 PM EDT as the Cardinals visit the Pirates. The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2015, with the Pirates just two games behind. Both lost the third place Cubs (three back of the Cardinals) in the NL playoffs.

Adam Wainwright gets the call for the Cardinals against Francisco Liriano. Wainwright got off to a great start in 2015, walking just three batters in 25 innings before an Achilles injury ended most of the rest of his season. He is stingy with the long ball as well. Since he became a full-time starter in 2007, he allowed the second lowest home run rate in the majors. Lirinao greatly benefited from his move to Pittsburgh. Through 2012 he posted a 4.40 ERA and was a game below .500. Over the last three seasons, his ERA is down to 3.26, with similar walks and strikeout rates. His fly ball percentage is down, and so is his home runs allowed.

The Blue Jays visit the Rays in a battle of two very good young pitchers. Marcus Stroman faces Chris Archer. Stroman missed most of the 2015 season with a torn ACL. He recovered faster than expected and made four strong regular season starts, posting a 1.67 ERA in 27 innings. Archer posted three consistent seasons in a row, with an ERA between 3.22 and 3.33. He came into his own in 2015, as his strikeouts soared while he cut down on his walk rate. He’s also proven to be a fun player off the field, and is moving toward being a face of the game.

Finally, the Mets and Royals get to replay the 2015 World Series as Matt Harvey leads New York into Kansas City against Edinson Volquez. Harvey pitched an impressive season in his return from Tommy John surgery, ending the season with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings. The main difference between the pre and post surgery Harvey was his home run rate, more than double his 2013 numbers. He is coming off a scare caused by blood clots in his bladder earlier this week, so he might get early relief in this game. Volquez is another pitcher who found redemption in Pittsburgh, and he turned what he learned there in 2014 into a 2015 World Series ring. With a high FIP, he does get some help from the excellent defense behind him.

Enjoy!

September 19, 2015

Games of the Day

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Michael Wacha faces Travis Wood as the Cardinals try to hold off the surging Cubs.

Michael Pineda tries to pull the Yankees even in the weekend series with the Mets as he faces Noah Syndergaard.

The Angels and the Twins play an important AL Wild Card double header as Andrew Heaney faces Kyle Gibson in game one and Garrett Richards takes on Mike Pelfrey in game two.

Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir face off in Houston as the Athletics try remain alive in the AL Wild Card race. A victory by the Astros eliminates the Athletics.

Finally, the Pirates send Francisco Liriano against Clayton Kershaw as the Pirates try to snap their losing streak.

Enjoy!

September 13, 2015

Games of the Day

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The Blue Jays go for the jugular as R.A. Dickey goes for the sweep against the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka. Dickey owns a 1.27 ERA against the Yankees this season. He walked eight and struck out seven in 21 1/3 innings. Usually, a pitcher who walks more batters than he strikes out is in trouble. Either the lack of Ks lead to more hits, or the high number of walks set up plenty of scoring opportunities. The Yankees, however, are making poor contact against the knuckle ball, with just 13 hits in 72 AB against Dickey, including 0 for 11 with men in scoring position. Against the Blue Jays, Tanaka walked five and struck out 19 in 19 innings. Thanks to his strikeouts, the Jays are just 13 for 62 against the Yankees ace, but they’ve managed to score eight runs against him. The three home runs helped a bit. Tanaka gives up a ton of homers at Yankee Stadium, so this is a good match-up for the power-hitting Blue Jays.

The Brewers send their rookie of the year candidate, Taylor Jungmann, against Francisco Liriano and the Pirates. Pittsburgh is closing in on the Cardinals and need to keep winning to have a shot at the division title. Jungmann makes his fourth start against the Pirates. He is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA against the Pirates, impressive for a rookie against a very good team. Liriano is at about the same number of innings as last season. He has the reverse record (10-7 versus 7-10). His home runs allowed and strikeouts recorded are nearly even, but he’s walked 18 fewer batters. That helped lower his ERA by 1/10 of a run.

Kyle Gibson takes on Chris Sale as the Twins continue their push for an AL Wild Card. Gibson pitched poorly on the road this season, his 4.86 ERA the result of a much higher walk rate. Sale should top 250 strikeouts today. His line against the Twins is strange. His three-true outcomes are great, with three home runs, six walks, and 42 strikeouts in 30 innings. He owns a 6.30 ERA however, allowing 24 runs, 21 of them earned. The Twins have a .415 BABIP against Sale, plus three home runs. They are hitting .444 against him with runners in scoring position.

The Astros try to avoid a sweep by the Angels as Mike Fiers takes on Andrew Heaney. Fiers proved to be a good deadline acquisition as he posted a 2-1 record with a 2.92 ERA for the Astros so far. Heaney has walked just 17 batters in 84 1/3 innings, helping him to a .297 OBP allowed.

Finally, Zack Greinke goes for his 17th win of the season against Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks. Greinke has been a little more human since his scoreless streak ended, but still great. Corbin allowed nine home runs in 62 1/3 innings, but that’s the only blot on his season after missing the first half of the year.

Enjoy!

September 3, 2015

Game of the Day

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There are only six games scheduled for Thursday, and the best one pits Francisco Liriano of the Pirates against Taylor Jungmann of the Brewers. Lirano is 4-0 since the All-Star break despite a 4.15 ERA. The Pirates scored 52 runs in his seven starts, and at least five runs in each game. Jungmann is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Pirates in this, his rookie season. He allowed one home run and walked just four in 14 innings against Pittsburgh.

Enjoy!

August 23, 2015

Games of the Day

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The young and the very young battle in Houston as Clayton Kershaw face Lance McCullers. Kershaw is a veteran ballplayers, but still just 27 years old, having debuted at the age of 20. With 212 K on the season, he has struck out at least that many at least six seasons in a row, and with eight more K will have reached five consecutive years with 220 K. McCullers is a 21 year-old rookie with a 3.17 ERA. He already shines in the three true-outcomes with 4 HR, 28 BB, and 79 K in 76 2/3 innings.

ESPN offers the other outstanding game on Sunday, as the Giants try to keep up with the Pirates. Ryan Vogelsong takes on Francisco Liriano. Vogelsong has been knocked around on the road this season with 11 home runs allowed in 66 2/3 innings, compared to five at home in 50 innings. Liriano has the reverse problem, with nine of his 11 home runs allowed at home. We could see a slugfest tonight!

Enjoy!

August 13, 2015

Games of the Day

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Sonny Gray, the AL leader in ERA, takes on Mark Buehrle as the Athletics try to stop the winning streak of the Blue Jays. Gray is 8-1 with a 1.64 ERA on the road, so his excellent pitching is more that just a home field advantage. Buehrle is a master of pitching to contact, with just 22 walks and 71 strikeouts in 148 innings. He induces ground balls at a higher rate this year than his career averages, and line drives at a lower rate.

The Cardinals go for a sweep of the Pirates as Francisco Liriano faces Lance Lynn. The Pirates were moving up coming into this series, but now find themselves seven games back, more worried about the Cubs who won six in a row. Lirano owns a 3.48 ERA in three starts against the Cardinals this season, but is 0-1. Lynn is worse, with a 4.91 ERA in two starts against Pittsburgh, also 0-1.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2015

Liriano Goes Deep

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Francisco Liriano hit his first career home run, which was also his first career extra-base hit. He was 13 for 149 coming into the game against the Dodgers, all singles. The three-run shot gives the Pirates a 4-2 lead over Mat Latos at the end of two innings. Latos has now allowed 9 homers on the season.

Interestingly, Liriano may have been injured on the previous swing. The trainer is looking at him in the dugout, and the replay showed him looking uncomfortable in the shoulder.

August 3, 2015

Games of the Day

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The Twins visit the Blue Jays on Civic Day in Canada for a Monday afternoon game with wild card implications. Ervin Santana takes on David Price. Santana owns a 3.78 ERA despite allowing six home runs in 33 1/3 innings. Price makes his Blue Jays debut after posting a 2.53 ERA with the Tigers. Price has a shot at winning a Cy Young whle pitching for two teams in the same year.

The Cubs are chasing the Pirates for the top wild card slot in the NL as Jon Lester takes on Francisco Liriano. Lester pitched well for the Cubs but hasn’t won much, toting a 6-8 record. His three true outcomes are very good, and his situational stats are good. Ten of his 11 home runs were solo shots. He’s pitching better than his ERA. Liriano is allowing fewer hits with his high strikeout rate, which is the difference between his sub-three ERA and Lester’s plus three.

Enjoy!

July 29, 2015

Games of the Day

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Francisco Liriano pitches the matinee in Minnesota as the Pirates face Ervin Santana. Liriano owns a 2.00 ERA in eight starts on the road. Santana has been magic in four starts, walking seven and striking out 21 in 27 2/3 innings, good for a 2.60 ERA. He has allowed four home runs however.

In another interleague game, Patrick Corbin takes on Felix Hernandez as the Diamondbacks play the Mariners. Corbin, like Santana, joined the team late, but pitched well since. Corbin walked 3 and struck out 23 in 22 innings so far. Hernandez is on a hot streak, with a 1.09 ERA in his last five starts.

Garrett Richards and Lance McCullers continue the Angels series against the Astros. Richards had some problems on the road this season where opponents are hitting .286/.339/.404 against him, versus .175/.253/.268 at home. McCullers is making a good bid for rookie of the year with a 2.60 ERA and 73 K in 69 1/3 innings.

Finally, Jesse Chavez and the Athletics try to score against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. Chavez gave up 28 runs in his last 50 innings. Kershaw allowed just one run in his last four starts, and pitched 29 consecutive scoreless innings.

Enjoy!

July 12, 2015

Games of the Day

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The last day of games before the All-Star break starts with a fine match-up, as Sonny Gray and the Athltics take on Corey Kluber and the Indians. Gray missed a start due to a stomach ailment, but came back to pitch a decent game against the Yankees on July 7th. Kluber is pitching very much like his 2014 season in terms of three-true outcomes. In fact, his FIP and xFIP are almost identical. Once difference is that last season, batters hit .207/.277/.284 with runners in scoring position. This season, that line is .286/.367/.429.

Lance McCullers tries to stop Houston’s losing streak as he takes on Matt Moore and the Rays. McCullers is an excellent rookie of the year candidate, sporting a 2.16 ERA. He’s allowed just two home runs in 58 1/3 innings. Moore’s return from Tommy John surgery is disappointing so far, with eight runs allowed on 15 hits and four walks in nine innings. The Rays could really use him returning to form.

Matt Scherzer won’t pitch in the All-Star game as he starts today. That also means he can start next Friday when the Nationals return to play, basically getting an extra start from the work-horse for the season. He takes on Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles. Chen owns a 2.82 ERA despite allowing 17 home runs in 102 innings. Fourteen of those were solo shots.

The final game of first part of the season pits Tim Cooney and the Cardinals against Francisco Liriano and the Pirates. Cooney made three starts in the majors so far, but he’s proving to be the type of high strikeout, low walk pitcher the Cardinals have in deep reserve in their system. Liriano pitched okay against the Cardinals this year. He struck out 14 and walked four in 14 1/3 innings, but allowed seven runs, six earned.

Enjoy!

June 26, 2015

Games of the Day

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Max Scherzer allowed one hit, one walk, and one hit batter as he goes for his third low-hit, complete game in a row. If he stays with the progression, (one-hit, no-hit), this one should be perfect. 🙂 He faces the Phillies and Aaron Harang. The Phillies own the third worst batting average in the National League at .241. That makes ripe for another low hitter.

The Braves and Pirates are both reeling a bit after sweeps by the Nationals. Undefeated Williams Perez face Francisco Liriano.

The Cardinals are leaving the NL Central in the dust as the Cubs come to town. Jake Arrieta takes on John Lackey. The Cubs really need a sweep of the series to get back in the race for the top spot in the NL Central, although they still hold the second wild card slot.

Enjoy!

June 20, 2015

Games of the Day

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Nick Martinez leads Texas against the White Sox and Carlos Rodon. Martinez’s breakthrough in his sophomore year comes from reducing his home run rate by 1/3. The rookie Rodon allowed just one home run in 44 1/3 big league innings so far.

The Pirates and Nationals offer another great duel with Francisco Liriano taking on Max Scherzer. Both are among the major league leaders in strikeouts, Sherzer posting better walk and home run rates.

The Braves trail the Mets by 2 1/2 games as New York sends Noah Syndergaard against Williams Perez in Atlanta in a battle of first-year pitchers. Syndergaard dominated batters with 45 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings, walking just eight. The opposition hits him well with men on base, a .350 BA, with six of his 11 extra base hits allowed. Perez brings a 2.29 ERA into the game, allowing a .207 BA with men in scoring position.

The Yankees will honor Willie Randolph during Old Timers Day ceremonies before the game against the Tigers. Willie was one of my favorite Yankees growing up. The trade of Doc Medich for Randolph was one that put the Yankees back on the winning track.

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June 15, 2015

Games of the Day

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Interleague week starts Monday, with four days of all interleague games.

Carlos Rodon leads the White Sox into Pittsburgh to face Francisco Liriano. Rodon is mowing down batters as a starter, with 36 K in 34 1/3 innings since moving into the rotation. Liriano had a 5.40 ERA for the White Sox in 2012. Since he left, Liriano owns a 3.21 ERA.

The Dodgers travel to Texas as Carlos Frias takes on Yovani Gallardo. Frias is flirting with disaster as he works with a .309 BA and a .357 OBP. He’s only allowed 11 extra base hits however, only three home runs. Gallardo owns a 2.65 ERA at home, where only two of his seven home runs left the yard.

Finally, Colorado rolls into Houston as Chad Bettis squares off against Dallas Keuchel. Bettis has yet to allow a home run despite pitching 25 1/3 of his 38 1/3 innings at Coors Field. Keuchel enters play on Monday with a 1.90 ERA. He’s yet to allow a home run at home in 49 innings.

Enjoy!

May 13, 2015

Games of the Day

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The Pirates send Francisco Liriano against the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Liriano owns a 2.79 thanks in part to 44 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings. That hasn’t translated into a winning record, however. Hamels walks 4.3 batters per nine innings this season, a huge increase for him. From 2007 to 2014 he averaged 2.2 walks per nine IP.

Matt Harvey tries to get back in the win column as faces Jason Hammel with the Mets visiting the Cubs. Compared to his pre-injury pitching, Harvey’s strikeouts are down a bit, and his home runs are up quite a bit. With his walks remaining low, the home runs have not done too much damage. Hammel has similar walk and HR numbers, but an ERA about 3/4 of a run higher.

Enjoy!