The 2023 series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs finished twenty second in the majors and eleventh in the National League in 2022 with 4.06 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That David Ross batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections.   That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.46
• Probable lineup: 4.37
• Worst lineup: 4.19
• Regressed lineup: 4.19

The signing of Dansby Swanson seemed to indicate the Cubs were ready to improve, and they look ready to score about 0.3 runs more per game. That much improvement might not be enough.

If they do improve more than that, it will likely be that two of their other additions, Trey Mancini and Cody Bellinger exceed their projections. Mancini wore out last season after returning from fighting cancer. Bellinger has not been the same since his shoulder injury. So this group does not likely represent the end game for the Cubs. I assume there will be youngsters coming along to complement Swanson.

The lineup is not bad, but by having most players off a spot or two, the Cubs leave a lot of runs on the table. The big difference is where the Cubs and the LAT bat Bellinger. Chicago slots him fifth, the LAT slots him eighth, seeing Bellinger as the weakest hitter on the club.

This is an instance where the LAT might not have enough information. Bellinger doesn’t hit many singles, but he does produce a good number of extra-base hits. Most of the players good at getting on base on the Cubs bat one through four, and Bellinger’s power will do the most good with men on base. If the Cubs were a stronger team, eighth would make sense, but on this squad, fifth might work just fine.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• New York Yankees
• Atlanta Braves
• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Mets
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Houston Astros
• Boston Red Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• San Francisco Giants
• Texas Rangers
• San Diego Padres
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Cleveland Guardians
• Colorado Rockies
• Minnesota Twins
• Seattle Mariners
• Chicago White Sox
• Baltimore Orioles
• Tampa Bay Rays

*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.