The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.92
- Probable lineup: 4.86
- Worst lineup: 4.54
- Regressed lineup: 4.51
The LAT puts Oswald Peraza at the top of the Yankees order, while the FanGraphs depth chart shows him batting ninth. You may note that there is a huge disconnect between the Musings Marcels project for Peraza (.266/.345/.419) and the one used in the depth charts (.243/.300/.384). The Marcels does a large amount of regression to the mean on Peraza, but also gives him a bump up from that due to his age. The projection at Baseball Reference is very much in line with Musings Marcels, so there is a big difference of opinion on not only how Peraza will perform, but with that difference, his place in the batting order.
Peraza did have a .348 OBP in the minors, but it did drop as he rose, from .386 at high A to .348 at AA to .329 at AAA. So if the projection is based on a falling OBP as he rises quickly, it makes some sense. Still, his minor league numbers don’t strike me as someone who will produce a low OBP in the majors.
With this uncertainty, batting him ninth makes sense. He will be on base for the power at the top of the order (Aaron Judge batting second). If he does turn out to produce a good OBP, it’s easy enough to move him to the top of the order and Gleyber Torres into the middle.
The most interesting aspect of the Yankees lineup for the second year in a row concerns the use of DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu gets listed as a bench player, but starts most games as the Yankees use him to rest various players, or just get his bat in the lineup if there is a good match-up. If you put LeMahieu at third and move Torres to fifth in the order, that lineup produced 4.92 runs per game, a little better than the default.
There is possible upside, mostly from Giancarlo Stanton staying healthy and Aaron Hicks figuring out his problems, and Harrison Bader playing healthy. Even without any of those things happening, this order should produce enough runs to keep the team in contention.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.