The 2023 series on team offense continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays finished fourth in the majors and second in the American League in 2022 with 4.78 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That John Schneider batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.11
- Probable lineup: 5.00
- Worst lineup: 4.81
- Regressed lineup: 4.60
This is a case where I don’t like the lineup produced by the LAT, as it bats catcher Alejandro Kirk first. In a lot of ways, Kirk followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes a lot of sense at the top of the order, as the two project to the best OBPs on the team by far. Catchers tend to make poor lead-off hitters, as the coming off the field after the top of the first, removing gear and getting read to start the offense for the day puts a lot of pressure on the position. The other choice at lead-off appears to be Brandon Belt, as George Springer‘s OBP declined a bit since joining the Jays.
With the bases bigger and the limit on picks-off throws in place, teams should want speed at the top of the order. Neither Kirk nor Belt provides that.
I actually do like the default Jays lineup better than the one produced by the LAT. I suspect a healthy Springer will do an excellent job at the top of the order. The LAT agrees with Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier batting eight and ninth, and neither is really a secondary lead-off hitter. That to me makes the natural spot for Guerrero third.
This is a good lineup no matter what, and it does point out a deficiency in the LAT. This analysis doesn’t account for other abilities of offensive players, or how catchers need a bit more rest, and should bat lower in the order to limit their times leading off and total number of times at the plate.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.