The 2023 series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians finished tied for fifteenth in the majors and sixth in the American League in 2022 with 4.31 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Terry Francona batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections.   That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.93
• Probable lineup: 4.84
• Worst lineup: 4.57
• Regressed lineup: 4.50

Looking at the Guardians lineup placement of Amed Rosario and the results of the LAT immediately sent my scurrying for my 1983 Bill James Baseball Abstract. On page 171** is this comment about his lowest ranked starting second baseman in the majors, Manny Castillo:

So why would anyone say “bat-control” as if these words were a magic wand, and jam an unproductive player right up in the middle of your offense?

The Bill James Baseball Abstract, 1983

Castillo’s batting average represented 73% of his offense in 1982. No one in the majors in 2022 was close to that, but Rosario comes in at 60.3%, 12th highest among players with 300 PA. Leury Garcia led with 68.0%. Last season Rosario cut down on both his strikeouts and his walks, putting the ball in play a lot more. He just doesn’t get on base enough to warrant a placement at the top of the order.

Consider that the LAT bats him second in the worst possible Cleveland lineups. This pains me as the order gets Myles Straw batting ninth and Steven Kwan batting first correct. These two should be setting up a big power threat, but instead they are followed by a singles hitter who might be able to steal a base.

On the other hand, this default lineup is pretty good. They still capture 75% of the value of the optimum order. This glaring mistake makes me wonder if Francona lost a step. There are runs left on the table for no good reason.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• New York Yankees
• Atlanta Braves
• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Mets
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Houston Astros
• Boston Red Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• San Francisco Giants
• Texas Rangers
• San Diego Padres
• Arizona Diamondbacks

*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.

**Also on this page, in a discussion of Robin Yount, is the first time I come across the idea of replacement level.