Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 25 full weeks, the 2025 season produced 8.92 runs per game versus 8.81 runs per game in 2024. Everything got getter, with slightly more home runs, walks, and other hits, and a lower K rate by a bout 0.3 per game. Again, MLB found a nice equilibrium around 9 runs per game.

Last week produced 8.61 runs per game, the fall typical for week 25 and the end of the year offensive swoon. It’s the fourth week in a row that strikeouts came in over 17.0 per game compared to 16.6 per game for the season.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the offense of the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 24 full weeks the 2025 MLB season averages 8.94 runs per game versus 8.83 runs per game in 2024. Nothing has really changed over the past few weeks. The good things, home runs, walks, other hits, are all up slightly compared to 2024. Strikeouts are down slightly. The good news is that MLB seemed to find a steady state very near the optimal nine runs per game.

Last week produced 8.78 runs per game, ending a streak of six straight weeks over nine runs per game. I do want to note that strikeouts are up recently, over 17.0 per game the last three weeks versus 16.6 for the season.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 23 full weeks the majors average 8.94 runs per game compared to 8.85 runs per game in 2024. Given that home runs and other hits are up slightly, and walks are up the most, with strikeouts down, I still think 2025 should be farther ahead of 2024.

The last nine weeks, however, did see offense over nine runs per game every week. The first 13 weeks of 2025 saw MLB average 8.72 R/G. Since then, the majors are at 9.26 R/G. This is somewhat similar to the 2015 season where runs per game were up 0.5 runs in the second half of the season. At that time, there was speculation the MLB changed the ball, and Mitchel Litchman found evidence later that the second half ball was different. I have not heard that speculation this season, since the difference seems to be related to better situational hitting.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 22 full weeks the 2025 season generated 8.91 runs per game compared to 8.86 runs per game for 2024. It’s a miniscule difference given that most of the major stats are better in 2025 than in 2024. Home runs are up to 2.31 from 2.26 per game. Walks are up 6.14 to 6.36 per game. Other hits are up to 14.26 per game from 14.18 per game. Overall, games see 14.26 batters reach base per game by a hit, walk, or HBP, compared to 14.18 last season. Strikeouts are down to 16.57 per game compared to 16.83 per game last year.

For much of the season, all of the above was true, but scoring in 2025 trailed 2024. With 9.58 runs scored last week, we’ve now had five weeks in a row over 9.0 runs per game. Through July 26th, MLB batters hit .245/.316/.401, since .248/.318/.415, so a little more power. With runners in scoring position, however, the majors went from .251/.330/.405 to .262/.340/.432.

Was it better lineup construction? Team looking for holes in the defense? Culling out the poor hitters? Maybe it’s all three and some better luck.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 21 full weeks, MLB produced 8.88 runs per game versus 8.83 runs per game in 2024. As expected, everything is slightly better in 2025. There are 0.05 more more runs per game, 0.2 more walks per game, 0.1 more other hits per game, and 0.3 fewer strikeouts per game.

Basically, the majors found a steady state very close to the optimum nine runs per game and stopped the explosion of three true outcomes. Well done!

Week 21 produced 9.22 runs per game. It was actually a high three-true outcomes week, with home runs, walks, and strikeouts all above the season averages, and other hits below average. Most weeks have fallen in a very narrow range.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 20 full weeks, 2025 is now ahead of 2024 8.86 runs per game to 8.84 runs per game. Home runs are nearly dead even at 2.29 this season versus 2.26 last year. Walks are up a bit from 6.15 per game to 6.36 per game. Other hits are up from 14.18 per game to 14.27 per game. K’s are down from 16.81 per game to 16.52 per game. These trends have been there all year, but 2025 offense finally reflects the improvement.

Last week saw the majors average 9.34 runs per game. All the stats above were pretty much on target for the week, but for a change the majors hit well with runners on base.

In six of the eleven games on Monday, the winning team scored seven runs. As you might guess, with the majors long term average of runs scored in a team game at about 4.5, five runs is the peak of the distribution of winning totals. This is since 2004, the start of the PED testing era. The peak of the distribution.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through nineteen full weeks, 2025 remains slightly behind 2024 in runs per game, 8.84 R/G this season compared to 8.87 runs per game last year. Everything else is pretty much better in 2025; more hits, more home runs, more walks, fewer strikeouts. It really is a situational difference. MLB hits .252/.331/.407 with men in scoring position this year, .254/.333/.417 last year. There are more opportunities this season, which brings the scoring close. Note that isolated power is down, which means the hits don’t move runners as far.

Last week produced 9.17 Runs per Game. Home runs and strikeouts were up, but other hits were down compared to the previous week of 9.73 runs per game. There is a definite summer bump to scoring this year.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through eighteen full weeks, MLB games produced 8.82 runs per game versus 8.83 runs per game for 2024. All the major categories say that 2025 should be the higher scoring season. Home runs are up from 2.23 per game to 2.26 per game. Walks are up from 6.17 per game to 6.35 per game. Other hits are up from 14.15 per game to 14.29 per game. K’s are down from 16.78 per game to 16.51 per game. Runners simply are not reaching home as often.

The other way the seasons are similar is that week 18 turned out to be the highest scoring week of the season so far. In 2024, the week produced 9.89 runs per game, which turned out to be the high point for the season. In 2025, week 18 comes in at 9.73 runs per game. Neither home runs nor walks were especially high last week, but other hits came in at 14.90 per game the second highest week of the season. Balls in play were finding holes last week.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offensive numbers of the current season to the previous year through the same number of full weeks. This continues to be the most boring comparison year ever as through 17 full weeks the 2025 season produced 8.76 runs per game compared to 8.77 for 2024. Once again, Home runs, walks, and other hits are all up slightly, with strikeouts down slightly. Better numbers are not producing more runs.

Last week produced 8.63 runs per game. Strikeouts ran high at 16.7 per game, and that led to all hits running low.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares MLB offense in the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 16 full weeks, the 2025 and 2024 seasons are near dead even. The 2025 season finally pulled slightly ahead, but you need to go out to three decimal places to see it. The current season is at 8.772 runs per game, while 2024 came in at 8.770.

Once again, it seems like there should be a bigger difference in that home runs, other hits, and walks are up, while strikeouts are down. I will not that while home runs and singles are up, both doubles and triples are down slightly. It’s possible the lack of the shorter long hits is failing to drive runners further around the bases. It’s a small drop, however, from 0.0465 per game in 2024 to 0.4577 per game this season.

The short All-Star week produced 9.44 runs per game. I will note that walks came in at 6.0 per game for the third week in a row, below the 6.4 per game mark for the season. Strikeouts came in just under 16.0 per game at 15.9 per game, the second week this season below 16. It was a put the ball in play week.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compare offense of the current season to previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 15 full weeks, the 2025 season produced 8.75 runs per game compared to 8.78 runs per game in 2024. This slight edge for 2024 persisted for weeks now. What also persisted is that most types of offense are up. Home runs (2.25 to 2.19), walks (6.38 to 6.16), other hits (14.26 to 14.15) are all up, strikeouts are down (16.51 to 16.72), yet games produce fewer runs.

The reason for the higher scoring last year seems to be situational. Last season, teams hit .255/.332/.417 with men in scoring position, much higher than the overall average of .243/.312/.397 (though July 14). This season, the RISP numbers are .252/.330/.404 with an overall average of .245/.315/.400. It’s simply fewer hits with runners in scoring position.

The past week produce 9.01 runs per game. Strikeouts were way down to 16.1 per game. It was a good week for homers, but not so much for other hits and walks. A theme of this season continues to be defensive success without a ton of Ks.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 14 full weeks the 2025 averages 8.73 runs per game compared to 8.77 runs per game in 2024. This result keeps holding, as all components of offense are up in 2025, with more home runs, walks, and hits, a higher BABIP and a lower K rate. I do notice that most of the increase in the walk rate came from early in the season. Walks came in around 6.2-6.3 per game over the last ten weeks, where they are at 6.4 per game for the season.

Last week the league scored 8.81 runs per game, pretty much right on average. It was a good home run week at 2.4 per game, and strikeouts are up at 16.8 per game compared to 16.5 per game overall. So there is a bit more swinging for the fences.

Tom Tango yesterday, as part of a longer conversation about various averages used to evaluate offense:

In this context I agree with Tango, but batting average does have an important use. It decides the batting champion.

In the early days of the game, statisticians tried counting walks as hits, so batting average would include most of a batter reaching base. Players objected, so it was settled that only hits would count, but the plate appearances due to walk would not hurt. So batting average encourages hits without discouraging walks.

Although I doubt the statisticians of the day thought like this, making BA an important stat encouraged the game to be about recording hits. Note that this is what MLB is trying to get back to, more action due to balls in play. So while BA works poorly as an evaluation tool, it should work great as a hit promoter. I would love to see more players chasing hits and walking less, but with batters with a better knowledge of how the game works statistically, I don’t believe we’ll get back to where we were.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense for the current season to the previous season through the same number of weeks. Through 13 weeks, the strange relationship between 2024 and 2025 continues, with offense nearly dead even at 8.727 runs per game in 2025 versus 8.725 in 2024. The seasons are even despite walks, home runs, and other hits up in comparison to last year, and strikeouts being slightly down. A puzzlement.

The week produced 9.12 runs per game, despite a record number of shutouts. According to the Sunday night broadcast, the three shutouts yesterday set a record, the first time for three or more shutouts in five consecutive games.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. This gets rid of distortions due to weather shifts during the year. Through twelve full weeks, the 2025 and 2024 season are almost dead even, 8.697 runs per game in 2025 versus 8.703 runs per game in 2024. This season produced slightly more home runs per game (2.21 versus 2.13) and slightly more other hits per game (14.28 versus 14.12). Part of the rise in hits comes from slightly fewer strikeouts per game (16.50 versus 16.63). Walks per game are up, however, 6.44 versus 6.19. With more homers, hits, walks, one would expect offense to be up, rather than even.

Week twelve did turn out to be the highest score week of the season at 9.53 runs per game, beating out week five at 9.12 runs per game by a lot. The runs came from home runs, 2.7 HR per game, by far the best week of the season.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of weeks. Through eleven weeks, the 2025 season produced 8.62 runs per game compared to 8.68 runs per game in 2024. The trend continues, however, that most components of offense remain up. Batters produce more hits, home runs and walks, strike out less, and hit into fewer double plays per game. They are getting hit by pitches less, with doubles and triples down, also on a per game basis. It is a weird season.

Last week produced 8.97 runs per game, stopping a four week decline. In the study that goes back to 2015 (excluding the 2020 season), week eleven stands out as a high offense week. Two of the three highest scoring weeks in the study came in week eleven. In 2019 the majors produced 11.20 runs per game, the highest in the study, while 2017 produced 10.53, third highest.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the offense of the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through ten full weeks, the 2025 season slightly trails 2024. The current season generated 8.59 runs per game, while 2024 came in at 8.68 runs per game. This remains odd because the components of offense are mostly positive. Home runs, singles, and walks are all up, while strikeouts are down. BABIP is up. Doubles, triples, and hit by pitch are all down slightly, but overall 23.60 batters reach base per game compared to 23.26 batters last season.

The drop in runs is situational; batters are getting on base, but they are not coming around to score. Through this point last season, the majors hit .254/.332/.407 with men in scoring position. This season that stands at .250/.329/.397. We are talking about 18,000 PA here, which is not a small sample size.

Offense dropped for the fifth week in a row. The majors is trending toward one of the lowest offensive years since the study started in 2015.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through nine weeks, offense in 2025 remains nearly identical to offense in 2024. The current season produced 8.62 runs per game compared to 8.64 runs per game in 2025. The difference remains a situational one, as the per game rates of home runs, walks, and other hits are all up slightly. That results in 23.66 batters earning their way on in 2025 versus 23.26 in 2024. Strikeouts are down 0.25 per game, and BABIP is up from .288 to .291.

The league is hitting .250/.329/.398 with men in scoring position this season, versus .253/.332/.404 at this point last season.

All is not rosy, however, Offense declined for the fourth week in a row, down to just 8.30 runs per game last week. That’s the second lowest week nine output in the study going back to 2015. It continues to be a very odd year.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through eight weeks, 2025 runs per game equals 2024 runs per game at 8.66. (If you go out to three decimal places, 2024 is 0.002 runs better.) Even though runs per game is the same, all components of offense show improvement over 2024. Home runs are up 0.07 per game. Walks are up 0.2 per game. Other hits are up 0.2 per game. Strikeouts are down 0.24 per game. Only hit batsmen are down, and only 0.08 per game. BABIP is up from .287 to .291.

The difference appears to be situational. Through 5/26/2024, the league slash line stood at .240/.311/.388 with a line of .254/.334/.405 with runners in scoring position. In 2025, the league slash line comes in at .244/.316/.395, but with a scoring position slash line of .250/.329/.397. With men on, slugging percentage dropped from .403 to .393, and slugging does the most damage with men on base.

Maybe it’s a triumph of the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT). Through this point in 2024, the worst batting slot was the 9th hole; in 2025 it’s the eighth hole. The LAT usually puts the worst hitter in the eight hole so a better OBP can be in the 9th slot for the top of the order. Could that be costing some RBI form the bottom of the order?

Week eight generated 8.41 runs per game, one of the lower weeks of the season. If you are a fan of diminishing three-true outcomes, it was a great week as HR came in 2.0 per game, walks at 6.1 per game, and strikeouts a 16.2 per game. Those are all below the season average of 2.1/6.5/16.5 per game. Other hits came in at 15.1 per game versus 14.3 for the season.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through seven full week the majors produced 8.69 runs per game compared to 8.65 runs per game last season. The increase comes from all of the components of offense going up. Home runs per game rose from 2.03 per game to 2.17 per game. Walks are up from 6.39 per game to 6.59 per game. Other hits are up from 14.11per game to 14.15 per game. On top of that, strikeouts are down from 16.82 per game to 16.54 per game. Hit by pitches are down from 0.83 to 0.74 per game, so overall games see about 0.3 more batters earning their way on per game.

So the game has found an equilibrium year to year, very close to nine runs per game. With strikeouts down more than walks are up, there is a bit more action on the field.

Last week saw games produce 8.53 runs per game. It was a big week for home runs at 2.48 per game, but that did not lead to an explosion of scoring as walks were down to 6.21 per game.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense this season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through six weeks, the majors produced 8.72 runs per game compared to 8.69 runs per game in 2024. Home runs, walks, and other hits are all up slightly, resulting in 23.67 batters reaching base per game versus 23.40 reaching base in 2024. Good news is that strikeouts are down a bit, from 16.83 per game to 16.54 per game, and HBP are down a tick, from from 0.84 per game to 0.75 per game. Offense is about as even as it can be, with a little more action in the game.

Last week produced 8.97 runs per game, basically hitting the sweet spot of nine runs per game.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through five full weeks, the seasons are about as even as can be, with 2025 producing 8.67 runs per game compared to 8.69 runs per game in 2024. Interestingly, the individual elements of offense are all up. Home runs stand at 2.13 per game versus 2.01 last year walks are at 6.69 per game compared to 6.53, other hits are up to 14.06 per game from 14.02 per game, and strikeouts are down to 16.47 per game from 16.93. It seems to be a situational difference, as last season the majors hit six points higher with men in scoring position and slugged ten points higher.

Week five produced 9.12 runs per game, the best week of the season so far. Strikeouts were way down at 15.54 per game. Maybe the edge effects due to changes in grading umpires balls and strikes are taking full hold, forcing pitchers into the strike zone more.

Three teams scored exactly 15 runs Tuesday night. The Yankees downed the Orioles by twelve, the Rangers beat the Athletics by 13, and the Dodgers also topped the Marlins 15-2. That’s the second time in the 30 team era that three teams scored exactly 15 runs on the same day. The other time came on July 31, 2006, when the Diamondbacks beat the Cubs 15-4, the Rangers were on the losing side of a 15-2 Twins win, and the Marlins were on the winning side of a 15-2 win over the Phillies.

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the offense of the previous year through the same number of full weeks. Through four weeks, the 2025 season produced 8.57 runs per game compared to 8.82 runs per game in 2024. Home runs look even, walks rose slightly (up 0.2 per game) and strikeouts dipped slightly (down 0.3 per game). The drop in offense comes from a drop in other hits, down from 14.20 per game to 13.90 per game. With a slight drop in HBP as well, batters reaching base dropped from 23.69 to 23.52 per game.

In other words, things have evened out. The week produced 8.38 runs per game, low for a week four. Both home runs and strikeouts ran low, but other hits came in at 14.86 per game, well above the season average. We might finally be seeing batters adjust their game to put the ball in play more and depend less on home runs.