The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. The Mets finished tied for fifth in the majors and tied for third in the National League in 2022 with 4.77 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Buck Showalter batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.03
- Probable lineup: 4.97
- Worst lineup: 4.72
- Regressed lineup: 4.58
The Mets lineup reminds me of the Cardinals of the late 1980s. The 1987 Cardinals consisted of hitters whose strength rested in getting on base. Vince Coleman, Ozzie Smith, Tommy Herr, and Will McGee all had little power. To complement them, the Cardinal used one powerful slugger, Jack Clark. That Cardinals lineup finished second in the NL in runs scored to the powerful Mets.
The Mets this season this season feature good OBPs up and down the order, with on great slugger, Pete Alonso. While this series so far sang the praises of teams getting the eight-nine slots correct, the Mets nail the one, two, and four slots, by far the most important slots in the lineup according to the LAT. In fact the sixteenth best lineup agrees with the Mets one through five.
There are two big differences of opinion between the LAT and the Mets. First, the LAT likes DH Daniel Vogelbach third instead of Francisco Lindor. Vogelbach projects to produce a higher OBP than Lindor, while Lindor projects to more power. The LAT appears to put as much OBP in front of Alonso, which makes sense. A team doesn’t need that much speed in front of Alonso, as he is more than capable of driving a runner how from first.
Second, the LAT likes Omar Navarez eighth and and Mark Canha ninth instead of Eduardo Escobar and Navarez at the bottom of the order. There is an argument for either Escobar or Navarez as the worst hitter on the team, but the LAT goes with the low slugging Navarez instead of the out-machine Escobar. It appears, once again, the the LAT is concentrating OBP. The LAT’s eight through four look like this in terms of on base rate:
- .315
- .355
- .369
- .346
- .343
- .343
That’s a tough run for a pitcher, and would give Alonso even more base runners to drive home. We might be looking at an historic RBI season for the slugger.
The Mets concentrated their spending on pitching, and something had to give. It was power in the offense, but the ability to get on should do a good job of pushing runners around the diamond.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.