Category Archives: Pitchers

September 20, 2025

In and Out

Leave a reply

The Dodgers celebrated a big night in Los Angeles as Clayton Kershaw made his last regular season start at Dodger Stadium and the team clinched a playoff spot for the 13th season in a row with a 6-3 win over the Giants. We know four of the six playoff teams in the NL, but no team in the AL is 100% sure of a post-season slot.

Drawing a low line at 500 IP, Kershaw ranks fourth in ERA as a Dodgers pitcher at Dodger Stadium. Koufax tops the list with a 1.37 ERA in 715 1/3 innings. Kershaw comes in at 2.26, pitching 1479 2/3 innings. Don Sutton tops the innings leaders at the park with 2005 2/3 innings.

September 19, 2025

The Skinny on Skenes

Leave a reply

Jordan Shusterman goes in depth on Paul Skenes, from preparation to pitch selection to experimentation. The conclusion is based on advice from Jason Kendall to catcher Henry Davis

“He said to me, for seven out of nine hitters, it’s going to be 95% about the pitcher’s strengths, 4% game situation, 1% hitter,” he said. Sure, there are exceptions when teams such as the Dodgers roll into town; certain stars require extra attention to detail. But even in those instances, Davis says, the calculus might just shift to 90% pitcher, 5% situation, 5% hitter.

It is this reality that empowers Skenes and Davis to focus so intensely on Skenes’ own capabilities, rather than worrying too much about how opposing hitters might try to counter. Because arguably no pitcher’s strengths are as varied and as imposing as Skenes’ — and if he throws the right pitches to the right spots, no hitter is likely to have much of a chance.

Yahoo.com

Now we’ll see if he can avoid the injuries we’ve seen so many good, young pitchers suffer.

September 19, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Shota Imanaga of the Cubs and Nick Lodolo of the Reds come into Friday’s contest with nearly identical ERAs. Imanaga stands 0.01 runs better. Both are very close in walks, but Lodolo dominates in strikeout rate and home run rate. None of those pick up that Lodolo hit thirteen batters and Imanaga hit just one.

The Red Sox at the Rays also feature two pitchers close in ERA. Garrett Crochet comes in with a 2.63 mark, Drew Rasmussen at 2.74. Crochet did it over many more innings, however, 191.1 to 144.2. Both walk just over two batters per nine innings.

The Mariners and Astros sit tied atop the AL West, and whichever team wins this three-game series is in the driver’s seat for the division win. Bryan Woo takes on Hunter Brown. Woo lost both his previous starts against the Astros this season, allowing seven runs in 12 innings. Brown did not record a decision against the Mariners in his two starts, but allowed just three runs in ten innings.

Enjoy!

September 18, 2025

A Real Retirement

Leave a reply

Clayton Kershaw reached the decision to retire from baseball at the end of the 2025 season:

“I don’t think I put enough merit on it at times, what it means to be able to be in one organization for your entire career,” Kershaw said earlier this year. “You look at people throughout all of sports that have been able to do that, and it is special, it is. I don’t want to lose sight of that. Getting to be here for my whole career, however long that is, is definitely a goal.”

MLB.com

Kershaw pitched well enough this season that some team would have signed him next year. He is still good at limiting walks and home runs. I suspect the series of injuries over the last few seasons wore on him, and this way he’s still healthy enough to enjoy his family, and remain a single team player.

Kershaw’s career started in 2008, and in that time he owns the lowest ERA of any pitcher with at least 1000 innings. Jacob deGrom is close, but in 1300 fewer innings. He should be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

September 18, 2025

Games of the Day

2 Replies

The Guardians and Tigers get an early start with Tanner Bibee facing Tarik Skubal. This game should show if Skubal really is healthy after leaving his last start with tightness in his side. With four more innings, Bibee will increase his IP total from 2024, but this will also be the third year in a row in which his home run rate and ERA increased.

The last game of the day features the Giants at the Dodgers with Logan Webb facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The two squared off on 6/13, with Webb getting the win as Yamamoto made a rare poor start. Both teams are still in playoff push mode as the Dodgers try to secure the NL West title and the Giants try to catch the Mets for the third wild card slot.

Enjoy!

September 17, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Blue Jays take on the Rays as Kevin Gausman takes the hill against Ian Seymour. Gausman now ranks third in the Bill James Pitcher Rankings after a poor outing last night by Paul Skenes. Guasman owns a 2.25 ERA over his last ten starts. Seymour, pitching mostly as a reliever, struck out 52 batters in 42 2/3 innings.

The Padres and Mets continue their pushes for playoff slots as Nick Pivetta faces David Peterson. Batters find hits rarely against Pivetta this season, as he ranks fourth in the majors in batting average allowed at .191. Peterson posted a solid season, giving the Mets innings and keeping home runs down. He allowed just ten homers in 162 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Phillies go for a sweep of the Dodgers in Los Angeles with Jesus Luzardo battling Blake Snell. Luzardo owns 4.03 ERA overall, but pitched better lately with a 2.91 ERA over his last nine starts. Snell owns a 4-4 record despite a 2.79 ERA as he is not going deep in games yet.

Enjoy!

September 15, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rangers open a series with the Astros as Jack Leiter takes on Jason Alexander, Texas trying to catch Houston or Seattle for the division or a wild card. Leiter greatly improved on his 2024 rookie performance, bringing his ERA down five runs to 3.81. He raised his K rate and lowered his HR rate. Alexander, awesome on the road, owns an opposition .303/.351/.574 slash line at home. That hardly makes him master of his domain.

First place teams clash in Los Angeles as Ranger Suarez leads the Phillies against Emmet Sheehan and the Dodgers. Suarez owns a 2.77 ERA, having allowed just then home runs in 143 innings. Sheehan brought his ERA down over a run and a half compared to his rookie stint in 2024 in about the same number of innings. All three true outcomes are better, helping him to a 3.32 ERA.

Enjoy!

September 14, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rays and Cubs played a great game on Saturday, and Sunday looks like a good matchup as Adrian Houser takes on Shota Imanaga. Howser comes into the game with a 3.11 ERA for the season, but it’s up to 4.93 since he was traded to the Rays. Imanaga saw his K rate drop by two strikeouts per nine IP compared to his rookie season of 2024. That hasn’t led to more hits, however, as his BABIP dropped from .264 to .209.

The Dodgers and Giants offer a third compelling pitching duel, as Tyler Glasnow takes on Robbie Ray. Glasnow’s 15 starts produced a 3.21 ERA with just 44 hits allowed in 75 2/3 innings. Ray is back to his 2022 form in strikeouts, and making up for a higher walk rate with a lower home run rate.

Enjoy!

September 13, 2025 September 13, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Yankees send Max Fried against the Red Sox and Brayan Bello as the teams vie for the top Wild Card slot in the AL. Fried pitched well in his two outings against Boston this season, striking out 16 and allowing two runs in 13 innings. Bello pitched even better, not allowing a run in 14 innings.

The other great rivalry playing out today pits the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw against the Giants and Logan Webb. Kershaw owns a 2.00 ERA career versus the Giants. That’s the lowest ERA for a pitcher who made at least 40 starts against the Giants since the start of the live ball era in 1920. He is ahead of Robin Roberts by 0.77 runs! Webb allowed three home runs to the Dodgers in 12 1/3 innings this season.

Finally, the Angels try to play spoilers to the Mariners as Mitch Farris battles Bryan Woo. The rookie Farris makes his third career start, having allowed just six hits and three runs in his first eleven innings. Woo, who exceeded his 2024 inning total by over 50 IP owns a 3.02 ERA. He owns just one decision, a win, in his seven start against the Angels.

Enjoy!

September 13, 2025

Rocket to the Top

Leave a reply

Tom Tango asked me to add to his chart showing the rise of Garrett Crochet, Paul Skenes, and Tarik Skubal.

I added two charts related to the Bill James Pitcher Rankings here.

September 12, 2025

Gil No-No

Leave a reply

Luis Gil of the Yankees just completed six hitless innings against the Red Sox. He walked four and struck out four, pitching with a 2-0 lead. He’s thrown 93 pitches, and given his recent injury history, I suspect he won’t start the seventh inning.

Update: Fernando Cruz comes on to pitch the seventh inning for the Yankees, now leading 4-0.

Update: After two strikeouts by Cruz, Nate Eaton homers to break up the no-hitter.

September 12, 2025

Skubal Scuttled?

Leave a reply

Tarik Skubal of the Tigers just left the game against the Marlins in the fourth inning, escorted off the mound by the trainer. Not clear what he injured, but the Tigers have to hope it’s not too serious.

The Marlins lead 3-1 in the bottom of the fourth.

The just showed the last pitch on replay, and he grabbed his left side on the rib cage after throwing the ball.

September 12, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Jacob deGrom returns to Citi Field as the Rangers and Mets play in an interleague wild card race game. deGrom pitched a full full-season for the first time since 2019, although he did make it through all of the 2020 pandemic schedule. He is not as dominant, but most pitchers only dream of his 2025 numbers. He faces rookie Jonah Tong, making his third start. He walked four and struck out 12 in 11 innings, but was hurt by three home runs.

The Yankees travel to Boston, the two teams separated by half a game for the top Wild Card slot in the AL. Whichever team wins that battle is likely to be the host of the other for the wild card round, and the Red Sox hold the time breaker. It’s the LuGi game as Luis Gil battles Lucas Giolito. Gil owns a 3.31 ERA in seven starts since returning from a long injury rehabilitation. He walked 23 batters in 35 1/3 innings, but with men on base opponents hit just .188/.280/.234. Giolito’s strikeout rate is down this season, but he made up for it with a .275 BABIP allowed.

Finally, the Dodgers visit the Giants with Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking on Justin Verlander. Yamamoto’s first two career starts against the Giants were poor, but his last one resulted in seven shutout innings. Verlander made three good starts in a row as he tries to keep his career alive.

September 11, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

In an early game, Ian Seymour of the Rays faces Shane Smith of the White Sox. If my last name were Seymour, I’d name my son Shane. Seymour makes third MLB start to go along with 13 relief appearances. He struck out 16 and walked two in 10 innings starting. Smith, also a rookie, held batters to just 98 hits in 125 1/3 innings, helping lower the impact of 52 walks.

The Tigers go for a sweep of the Yankees after pounding the New York bullpen two days in a row. Tyler Holton takes on Cam Schlittler. Holton is a bit on an ineffective opener, as he allowed five runs in 7 1/3 innings in his five starts. Schlittler owns a .324 ERA, thanks in part to holding opponents to a .366 slugging percentage. All the base runners he allowed don’t get a chance to advance many bases.

The Yankees will also be remembering 9/11.

Enjoy!

September 10, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The first game of the day offers one of the best pitching matchups as Freddy Peralta of the Brewers faces Merrill Kelly of the Rangers. Peralta goes for his seventeen win of the season while he pushes for a career high in innings pitched and a career low in ERA. Kelly owns a 2.98 ERA in seven starts for the Rangers, walking just nine batters in 42 1/3 innings for the team.

The Phillies magic number is nine to win the NL East as they go for a sweep of the Mets at home. Clay Holmes takes on Cristopher Sanchez. Holmes does a good job of removing base runners, with 19 taken off with double plays and caught stealing. Sanchez stands 2-4 with a 4.63 career against the Mets, including an 0-2 this year. He tends to walk a lot of batters when he faces New York.

Finally, the Reds and Padres offer the best matchup on the west coast as Andrew Abbott takes on Nick Pivetta. Abbott’s low ERA comes as a result of opponents doing poorly with runners in scoring position this year, hitting .204/.280/.301. Pivetta’s 2025 ERA stands over 1.6 runs lower than his career average. Both his walk and home run rates are way down this season.

Enjoy!

September 9, 2025 September 9, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

First place teams clash in Toronto as Luis Garcia leads the Astros against Shane Bieber and the Blue Jays. Garcia makes his second start after returning from Tommy John surgery. He allowed no walks in his first six innings, but did give up two home runs. Bieber makes his fourth start after the same surgery, striking out 21 in his first 17 1/3 innings.

The Reds and Padres battle in San Diego. Zack Littell takes on Michael King. With 165 1/3 innings under his belt, Littell set a new single season high, but also leads the majors in home runs allowed. King pitched only about 1/3 of the season, but contributed a 2.81 ERA in eleven starts. He allowed just six home runs in 57 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

September 9, 2025

Great Pitching

Leave a reply

Three pitchers posted game scores of at least 80 on Monday night, as two starters flirted with no hitters. Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers pitcher seven no-hit innings against the Rockies, walking two and striking out eleven. He did allow a run, however, for a game score of 82. The Dodgers one-hit the Rockies and won the game 3-1.

Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox pitched seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits with no walks and ten strikeouts. His game score came in at 81 in a 7-0 win over the Athletics.

Slade Cecconi of the Guardians pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just one hit and three walks, but he only struck out three. That gave him an 80 in a 10-2 win over the Royals.

There have only been five game scores of at least 90 this season, Tarik Skubal and Sonny Gray topping the list with 96s. It’s tough to generate a 90 without going deep in a game. Note that Paul Skenes highest game scored were an 80 and two 79s. He is 0-2 in those games with a no decision.

September 8, 2025

Cecconi Nononi

Leave a reply

Slade Cecconi of the Guardians just finished six no-hit innings against the Royals. With Cleveland leading 9-0, Cecconi can feel free to go after hitters the rest of the way. He’s walked three and struck out three with 81 pitches thrown. We’ll see how long the teams allows him to stay in the game if the no-hitter remains intact.

Update: Michael Massey singled leading off the top of the eighth inning to break up the no-hitter.

September 8, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Brewers travel to Texas to take on the Rangers in a battle of left-handed pitchers. Jose Quintana faces Jacob Latz. The thirteen year veteran Quintana is near his career average ERA. He owns a 3.72 ERA in 2025 versus 3.74 overall, despite weaker three-true outcomes. The Brewers pride themselves on good defense, and it’s showing up in comparison to Quintana’s FIP. Latz allowed just 18 hits in 24 innings as a starter this season.

The Diamondbacks and Giants are both within striking distance of the last wild card slot, although they will need some help to get there. One of them really needs to sweep this series. Nabil Crismatt takes on Logan Webb in game one. Crismatt gave the Diamondbacks rotation a bit of a boost with a 2.14 ERA in four appearances. He allowed just one home run in 21 innings this season. Webb also keeps the ball in the park with just 13 home runs allowed in 178 2/3 innings.

Finally, the Red Sox send Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet against the Athletics and Luis Morales. Crochet comes into the game with a 5.19 K/BB, helping him hold opponents to a .273 OBP. The rookie Morales owns a 3-0 record with a 1.59 ERA in six appearances, five of them starts. He holds the double whammy of a high K rate with a very low BABIP.

Enjoy!

September 7, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Guardians and Rays continue to jockey for position in the race for the third AL Wild Card slot. Cleveland sends Parker Messick against Tampa Bay and Drew Rasmussen. The rookie Messick is off to a good start to his career with a 2.08 ERA in three starts. He allowed just three walks and no home runs in 17 1/3 innings, so the 20 hits he allowed didn’t do much damage. Rasmussen stands 11 1/3 innings away from setting a new single season high for himself. He is unlikely to qualify for the AL ERA leaderboard, but his 10-5 record and 2.74 ERA helped keep the Rays in the race. Like Messick, he kept both his walk and home run rates low.

The second derivative game takes place in The Bronx as Max Scherzer of the Blue Jays faces Max Fried of the Yankees. They faced each other three times in the past, Scherzer dominating the contests. He recorded a 2-0 record with a 0.45 ERA, while Fried took two losses with a 3.18 ERA. Fried owns the upper hand over all this season, with low walk and home run rates, while Scherzer is very susceptible to the long ball.

There is no Sunday night game today.

Enjoy!

September 6, 2025

Yamamoto No No

Leave a reply

Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers just completed six no-hit innings against the Orioles. He walked two and struck out seven as the Dodgers lead the game 2-0. He threw 84 pitches so far, so we’ll see how long the Dodgers allow him to continue if the no-hitter stays intact.

Update: The Dodgers score in the top of the seventh and Yamamoto retires the Orioles in order in the bottom of the inning to extend his no-hitter. He’s now thrown 95 pitches.

Update: Yamamoto retires the side in order in the eighth inning. He is not at 104 pitches and nine strikeouts. According to the broadcast, he threw two no-hitters in Japan.

September 5, 2025

Freeland Fine

Leave a reply

Kyle Freeland of the Rockies just finished four perfect innings against the Padres at Coors. I wonder if his encounter with Rafael Devers earlier in the week got Freeland fired up. He’s been horrible at Coors this season. He struck out eight so far, and the Rockies lead 1-0.

Update: Ramon Laureano doubles with one out in the fifth to break up the perfect game. He had the highest probability of getting a hit today (among starters) according to the Baseball Musings Neural Network.

September 5, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Mets visit the Reds, Cincinnati five games behind New York in the NL Wild Card race. David Peterson takes on Andrew Abbott. Peterson pitched 31 innings more than in any of his previous MLB seasons. This may have taken a toll as he pitched poorly in three of his last five outings, walking a ton of batters. Abbott just passed his innings from last season, and is on a bit of a losing streak of his own. His is 0-4 in his last eight starts, despite pitching well in many of them,

The Blue Jays fly into The Bronx leading the Yankees by three games in the AL East. Kevin Gausman faces Cam Schlittler. Guasman allowed a .364 slugging percentage this season on a .212 BA. So overall the power against him is low, but he does give up a good number of extra-base hits. He is the kind of a pitcher that can be beat in a low scoring game as he may allow the home run that makes a difference. Schlittler makes the tenth start of his career, and so far owns a 2.61 ERA. The OBP against him stands at .312, but the defense turned four double plays behind him, caught two runners stealing, and another was picked off.

Enjoy!

September 4, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Phillies at the Brewers finishes with Ranger Suarez taking on Freddy Peralta. At 2.06 BB per 9, Suarez is having his best season at preventing walks in a career where he’s been very good at that aspect of the game. Peralta goes for his 17th win of the season as he hurtles toward 20 wins.

Blake Snell leads the Dodgers against Paul Skenes of the Pirates. Snell boosted the Los Angeles rotation with a 2.41 ERA this season in seven starts, even though his record is just 3-3. Skenes can show sympathy for that record, as he stands 9-9 despite a 2.05 ERA.

Finally, the Yankees and Astros play the rubber match of their series with Carlos Rodon against Cristian Javier. Rodon goes for his 16th win as he has an outside shot at 20 Ws. He needs 13 more innings for a new career high in IP. Javier makes his fifth start of 2025, coming into the game with a 3.38 ERA. He allowed just one home run in his first 16 innings, but walks a ton of batters.

Enjoy!

September 3, 2025

Pitching Problems

Leave a reply

The Mariners starter George Kirby allowed eight runs to the Rays in two innings as Tampa Bay leads the game 9-0 after five innings. Pitching was supposed to be the strength of the team, but August 13th it’s been a weakness. In that time the Mariners stand 6-13, tied with the Guardians and Twins (coming into today) for worst record in the majors. The starters gave up power, with a .492 slugging percentage allowed, but the relievers have not closed the door. They allowed .302/.363/.465 slash line, putting way too many batters on base. With the Twins and Guardians leading tonight, the Mariners might be all alone at the bottom come the morning.

September 3, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Casey Mize of the Tigers tries to end the Mets high scoring ways against the Tigers as he faces Clay Holmes. Holmes turned out to be a bright spot in the Mets rotation, giving them plenty of innings in his first season as a starter. He may be wearing down a bit, as he allowed a 4.78 ERA in his last ten starts. Mize’s weakness is the home run ball, with 17 HR allowed this season in 120 2/3 innings. The Mets hit five home runs in the last two games.

The Blue Jays send a healthy Shane Bieber against the Reds and Zack Littell. Bieber makes his third start, having struck out 15 batters and walked none in his first 11 1/3 innings. Littell also limits walks, second in the majors with 1.51 walks per 9 IP.

Enjoy!

September 1, 2025

Closer Phobic

Leave a reply

Closers collapsed in Cincinnati Monday afternoon. The Reds took a 2-1 lead into the ninth, but Emilio Pagan gave up three runs on three hits, two of those home runs to pt the Blue Jays up 4-2. The Blue Jays used Jeff Hoffman the last two days, so the save opportunity fell to Tommy Nance, who allowed two hits in 1/3 of an inning, then Brendon Little, who gave up two more hits and blew the save by allowing the third run in the inning, and took the loss. Noelvi Marte picked up the game winning hit.

September 1, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Parker Messick of the Guardians is off to a good start to his career. He faces the Red Sox and Brayan Bello Monday afternoon. In 13 2/3 innings, Messick walked one and struck out 12, giving up just one run along the way. In the minors he struck out over three batters for every one he walked. Bello enters the game with a 2.99 ERA, having allowed just 14 home runs in 141 2/3 innings. He tries to keep Cleveland from gaining in the wild card race.

First place teams battle in Milwaukee as the Phillies visit the Brewers. Taijuan Walker takes on rookie Jacob Misiorowski. Walker comes into the game with a good 2.83 walks per nine IP. His drop in BA allowed this season to .260 from .317 last year is due to more batted balls in play turning into outs, as his BABIP dropped from .320 to .285. Misiorowski struck out 65 batters in 43 2/3 innings. He owned a 2.45 ERA after six starts, allowing 15 hits in 29 1/3 innings. Batters learned to be more selective with him since then, as he walked nine batter in 14 1/3 innings and allowed 12 hits.

Enjoy!