Category Archives: Transactions

December 13, 2025

Let’s Maikel a Deal

The Royals reportedly lock up third baseman Maikel Garcia through his prime years for $57.5 million. At seasonal age 25, Garcia posted a break out year, both on offense and defense, posting a 5.6 fWAR. He brought down his strikeout rate for the second season in a row, raising his walk rate, raised his isolated power, and improved his BABIP. While the high WAR of 2025 might not be repeatable, he looks like a solid two to three WAR player through his prime. The Royals could see him generate 15 WAR during the guaranteed part of the contract for one third of the free agent cost.

The Royals executed the perfect plan for getting the most our of a player for the least amount of money. They limited his playing time early so that that could control him for seven, rather than six seasons. He did wind up a super two, facing four seasons of arbitration. The Royals bought those out, avoiding contentious hearings with the player and the work of going through that process every year. He is controlled through his age 30 season.

According to a source, Garcia will make $4 million in 2026 (what would have been his first arbitration year), $7 million in ‘27, $10 million in ‘28, $13 million in ‘29 and $19 million in ‘30. The club option is for $21 million. There are other escalators in the 2030 and ‘31 seasons. The deal also includes a signing bonus and a $3.2 million buyout on the club option to get to the $57.5 million guarantee.

MLB.com

If he’s still playing well, the Royals get another year at a very good price. If Garcia becomes a free agent, his best years will be behind him, and the contract he receives would be somewhat less than if he hit free agency at the height of his prime.

Of course, no matter what happens, Garcia receives enough money to be set for life.

It’s deals like this that I believe should lead to shortening the time to free agency. One way that would help players like Garcia, who started their professional careers at a young age, would be counting time in the minors. Maybe service time counts for nothing at rookie ball, 1/8 in A ball, 1/4 in AA, 1/2 at AAA. Players would get to arbitration faster, and more importantly, more likely to reach free agency in their primes when they are more likely to get a bigger contract.

Unfortunately, the MLBPA will be obsessed with preventing a salary cap rather than helping younger players make more money.

Here’s a deal. The MLBPA proposes a cap of 10% more than the top payroll the previous season for full minor league service time counting toward arbitration and free agency, with a five year waiting period. Then be willing to negotiate to a 5% increase, partial service time in the minors, with the free agency period remaining at six seasons with no free agent compensation.

The owners get a win because the word “Cap” is in the CBA, but the players get a bigger win as they shift free agency to a younger age, which should lead to bigger contracts, with plenty of room under the cap for most teams.

November 5, 2025

Royals Keep Perez

The Royals and Salvador Perez agreed to a two-year, $25 million deal:

Perez, 35, has spent the entirety of his 15-year career with the Royals, and he was named team captain in 2023. A steady presence behind the plate who played in 155 games last season, Perez remains a powerful presence, hitting 30 home runs in 2025 — his ninth consecutive full season with at least 20 homers.

ESPN.com

He averaged about 1.1 fWAR over the last three seasons, so based on that, this was a very reasonable contract. When you look at the three years individually, however, 3.3 of the 3.5 fWAR came in 2024. That leads me to believe the Royals overpaid a bit.

The fans love him, however, and Perez gives back a lot to the community, and that should go into the calculation as well. While his ability to get on base waned, his power hasn’t, so he still should be useful at the plate.

September 18, 2025

A Real Retirement

Clayton Kershaw reached the decision to retire from baseball at the end of the 2025 season:

“I don’t think I put enough merit on it at times, what it means to be able to be in one organization for your entire career,” Kershaw said earlier this year. “You look at people throughout all of sports that have been able to do that, and it is special, it is. I don’t want to lose sight of that. Getting to be here for my whole career, however long that is, is definitely a goal.”

MLB.com

Kershaw pitched well enough this season that some team would have signed him next year. He is still good at limiting walks and home runs. I suspect the series of injuries over the last few seasons wore on him, and this way he’s still healthy enough to enjoy his family, and remain a single team player.

Kershaw’s career started in 2008, and in that time he owns the lowest ERA of any pitcher with at least 1000 innings. Jacob deGrom is close, but in 1300 fewer innings. He should be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

August 22, 2025

Extending a Catcher

The Orioles sign newly minted major leaguer Samuel Basallo to an eight year contract worth from $67 million to $88 millon. He is a heavy hitting catcher:

While Baltimore already has a starting catcher in two-time All-Star Adley Rutschman, Basallo could also see time at first base — where he has played more than 100 games over his five minor league seasons — and designated hitter.

Regardless of where he winds up on the diamond, Basallo’s allure has more to do with where he slots in Baltimore’s order. With elite bat speed and exit velocities among the best at any level, Basallo has the talent to become a consistent 30-homer threat, according to evaluators.

ESPN.com

Catchers often suffer short shelf lives. Rutschman is already in his fourth season, and should be peaking at seasonal age 27. Instead, his rWAR declined every year, from a high of 5.4 in his rookie season to a low of 1.7 as we approach the end of this season. This is why catchers who hit well are often moved to other positions, especially if they are not particularly skilled behind the plate. If Rutschman’s decline is real, Baltimore just signed someone who can fill the gap cheaply for the long term, or just be another strong bat in the lineup.

August 6, 2025

Friends, Romans, Red Sox Fans…

Jeff Passan is reporting a nice contract extension for Roman Anthony of the Red Sox:

Stay tuned for official word.

July 9, 2025

DJ DFA’d

The Yankees designated DJ LeMahieu for assignment, deciding to pay him $22 million not to play for them:

LeMahieu, who is four days shy of his 37th birthday, batted .266 with a .674 OPS this season, with increased production since the start of June.

But LeMahieu’s range at second base was limited and, according to general manager Brian Cashman, he had communicated to the organization during the offseason that he couldn’t physically handle playing third base.

ESPN.com

His .266 BA and .338 OBP were fine, but he produced little power, with only five of his 34 hits going for extra bases. He might work as a table setter for a team that could use OBP at DH. He’ll come cheap.

April 7, 2025

Guerrero Extended

The Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a massive extension late last night:

First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a 14-year, $500 million contract extension, pending a physical, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Sunday night.

This is a monumental, no-deferral deal to keep the homegrown star in Toronto for the rest of his career, and comes as the 5-5 Blue Jays are in the midst of a road trip that takes them to Fenway Park to meet the Boston Red Sox on Monday.

Guerrero, 26, a four-time All-Star and son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, had said he would not negotiate during the season after the sides failed to come to an agreement before he reported to spring training. But the sides continued talking and sealed a deal that is the third largest in Major League Baseball history, behind only Juan Soto‘s 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets and Shohei Ohtani‘s 10-year, $700 million pact with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

ESPN.com

The Blue Jays tried to spend money on free agents the last two years, but lost out to the two big deals above. Note that the Blue Jays made a deal that pays Guerrero free agent money without him becoming a free agent.

Guerrero averaged 3.3 fWAR in his three previous seasons, last year coming in at 5.4 fWAR, still below his seasonal age 22 season of 6.4 fWAR. So in figuring out his WAR over the life of the deal, I take the 3.3 WAR as a constant over his prime (through age 29, four year), then a 10% a year fall off after that. That puts him at 32.5 fWAR for the life of the contract, or about $15.4 million per WAR. That is much higher than the $10 to $12 million per WAR free agents get today. Setting his current value at five fWAR per year for his prime yields a total of 49.3 f WAR for the life of the contract, $10.1 million per WAR. That value per WAR makes a lot more sense in the present market, given that Guerrero is not a free agent.

This raises the question, did the Blue Jays get the valuation correct? Guerrero owns a relatively low strikeout rate for a slugger, which is why he hits for a high batting average. His isolated power is good, and his BABIP increased in recent years, suggesting he’s doing a better job of putting the ball in play. There is a lot of like here.

The Blue Jays may also be privy to why 2023 was such a down year. Often times a season like that comes from a nagging injury. If that was the case, this actually looks like a very good deal for Toronto, and not a Vernon Wells disaster.

April 3, 2025

The Jackson Nine

The Padres extended the contract of Jackson Merrill through 2034, a nine year deal:

The Padres announced the deal Wednesday but did not disclose financial terms. Sources confirmed to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel that the nine extension years are worth $135 million.

The deal, first reported by FanSided, includes a $30 million club option for a 10th season and has a maximum value of $204 million.

The team option for 2035 would convert to a player option if Merrill has a top-five finish in MVP voting at any point during the contract. He also gets a hotel suite on road trips.

ESPN.com

It was a good day for extensions, as Merrill joined Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks and Kirstian Campbell of the Red Sox in receiving big deals.

Producing hits currently stands as Merrill’s strength. He owns a .298 BA with a .331 OBP, so right now walks represent a minor part of his offense. His hits do travel, however, with a .509 slugging percentage. That comes from a combination of speed and hitting the ball hard, as he includes six triples with his 32 doubles and 26 home runs.

Note that Merrill owns a decently low strikeout rate. That combined with power and speed gives him the ability to produce a very high batting average, and possibly a triple crown season.

At seasonal age 22, the sky’s the limit for Merrill, and the Padres showed very good sense locking him up now. Of course, that will prevent him from realizing a Juan Soto type payday when he would have become a free agent in his prime.

April 2, 2025

Souper Deal

The Red Sox extended the contract of Kristian Campbell, signing him to a $60 million, eight-year extension.

Boston’s desire to lock in players to early-career deals in hope of maximizing their performance is no secret. And Campbell’s first week with the Red Sox only serves as validation: He’s hitting .375/.500/.688 with a long home run to left-center field.

ESPN.com

He is playing his age 23 season after hitting .327/.439/.546 in two minor league seasons. The Red Sox capture all his prime years. He really only needs to produce six WAR in the next eight years to make this contract worthwhile.

April 2, 2025

Marte Money

The Diamondbacks add $64 million and four years to Ketel Marte‘s current contract:

The deal is worth $116.5 million with $46 million in deferred money that will help the Diamondbacks get some salary relief in the short term, including $5 million this year. The new deal, which includes an opt-out after the 2030 season, adds $64 million in guaranteed money to what Marte was already under contract for.

This is the third contract extension that Marte has signed since the Diamondbacks acquired him prior to the 2017 season in one of GM Mike Hazen’s first trades. Marte’s most recent extension was a five-year, $76 million pact he signed back in March of 2022 that ran through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

MLB.com

Marte comes off two consecutive seasons of outstanding OPS, with good power mixed in. This contract likely makes him a DBack for life.

March 31, 2025

Stitched Together

The Red Sox reach a deal with Garrett Crochet starting in 2026:

Left-hander Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox have agreed to a six-year, $170 million deal, sources confirmed to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand on Monday night. The deal will begin in 2026 and includes an opt-out after 2030.

The club has not confirmed the deal

MLB.com

It’s a record deal for someone that far along in his career who is not a free agent. This makes giving up four prospects a bit more worth it, since they will get at least six seasons from the ace.

March 28, 2025

Pfaadt Club

The Diamondbacks signed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt to a new deal. He will earn $45 million over five years starting in 2026:

Pfaadt’s deal is the latest example of the D-backs signing young players to long-term extensions, joining shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (four years, $45 million) and reliever Justin Martinez (five years, $18 million).

ESPN.com

Pfaadt is not young. At seasonal age 26 he’s already in the second season of his prime. He is under team control for awhile, so locking him up now means no arbitration down the road. The Diamondbacks get all of his prime years and some of his early 30s for a reasonable price.

March 22, 2025

Justin Time

The Arizona Diamondbacks rewrote the contract of reliever Justin Martinez into a five-year, $18 million deal.

Manager Torey Lovullo has said he is still considering Martinez, left-hander A.J. Puk and right-hander Kevin Ginkel for the closer role. Martinez had eight saves and a 2.48 ERA despite 36 walks in 72 2/3 innings in 2024.

ESPN.com

Martinez walked a ton of batters in his minor league career, but may have moderated somewhat lately. The walks may not matter, however, as he strikes out a ton of batters, reducing then number of balls in play that might turn into hits. Martinez also chokes off home runs.

Then again, he’s a reliever, and five years for a reliever, young or not, seems like a lot. I suppose if Martinez gets his walks under control, his contract would be so good that the DBacks could flip him and get a very nice return.

March 16, 2025 March 7, 2025

The Butler Did It

The Athletics locked up Lawrence Butler with a seven year, $65 million contract:

The deal, which is pending a physical, will keep 24-year-old Butler with the A’s well past their planned move to Las Vegas in 2028. Earlier in the offseason, designated hitter Brent Rooker signed a five-year, $60 million extension as well, helping solidify a core the A’s hope will lead them back into playoff contention.

Butler was a revelation last year, following a short stint in 2023 during which he struggled and a difficult start to the 2024 season that prompted a demotion to Triple A in mid-May. After he returned June 18, Butler batted .291/.330/.565 with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases over 330 plate appearances.

ESPN.com

Musings Marcels show Butler with a .258/.314/.455 slash line in 2025. The slugging is in line with his high minor leagues performance, while the OBP trails those performances. If the A’s can get a .330 OBP with that slugging percentage from him during his age 24 season, they’ll be very happy.

The Athletics keep spending with an eye toward moving to Las Vegas with a team worth watching.

February 23, 2025

Changes, Washington Nationals

The Nationals acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Both Reifert, a rule five draft pick, and Ogasawara, whose contract was purchased from Japan, have no major league experience.

Nationals first basemen hit .241/.310/.376 last season. Lowe projects to .269/.353/.429. He’s not a typical power hitting first baseman, but the better OBP really helps. If you think of outs as currency, Lowe spending fewer outs means more outs (and more plate appearances) for other hitters to spend. A players with higher OBPs expand the offense for everyone else. The better hitters on the team are going to get more PA.

DeJong moves in as the backup infielder. In recent years he’s been hit by a double whammy of his walk rate falling and his strikeout rate rising. He struck out over 30% of the time in each of his last three seasons. That might be fine if he generated some power, but he owns a .372 slugging percentage in that time. What he does well is play defense, so he’ll come off the bench when needed to play the infield.

Most of Rosario’s offense resides in his batting average. Over his career, it’s been around 56% of his offense, but last year jumped to 65%. He’s the type of player a manager sends to the plate a hit is the most important outcome for a plate appearance.

Soroka takes over the fifth slot in the rotation. He had a great season in 2019, then major injuries slowed his career. When he signed with the Nationals I wrote:

The money indicates the Nationals expect Soroka to be a one-WAR player. Given his injury history, and that he did not come close to one WAR since his 2019 season, this deal does carry some risk. On the positive side of the ledger, he’ll play 2025 as a 27 year old, right at an athlete’s peak. It also appears that injuries have not hurt his fastball velocity. That actually ticked up in the last two seasons. He is throwing mostly sliders as his change of pace, and has lowered the slider velocity recently. That makes the difference between the two fastballs and the two off-speed pitches greater, and in general that’s a good thing.

BaseballMusings.com

This was a move with some upside.

Like the Rangers, the Nationals revamped their bullpen. That surprised me after they had one of their better relief seasons in recent memory. Lopez, however, is the only change to the front of the bullpen as he competes for the closer role with Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer. Lopez does not blow batters away, but his BABIP has come down in recent years to compensate. With a .315 career opposition BABIP, he does seem like a hittable pitcher.

Of the rest of the bullpen pickups, there are no high K, low BB pitchers. They are high on both or low on both. Reifert and Ogasawara did tend to keep the ball in the park in their professional careers.

There are no stars among the Nationals pickups, but everyone has something to contribute, some situation where a strength will be useful. Soroka has upside potential, and could be the star of the group. I suspect Washington will be a better team this year, but probably not a playoff team.

February 23, 2025

Changes, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

In the early days of his Baseball Abstracts, Bill James would talk about batting average as a percentage of a player’s offense. Over his career, that percentage for Santander came down from 43.7% in 2021 to 31.8% in 2024. In other words, he became a higher dimensional threat at the plate. The reduction came from an increase in power. His isolated power was a good .192 in 2021, a great .271 in 2024. What I find interesting, however, is that his OBP failed to go up with his power. Often team will use a pitch around strategy against that type of slugger. Some players, don’t take the walks, however, So Santander’s value gets pulled down since he wastes outs generating his power.

Gimenez produced a fantastic season at seasonal age 23 with a 6.1 fWAR on a .371 OBP and a .466 slugging percentage. In the two subsequent seasons he combined for 6.8 fWAR with a .306 OBP and a .368 slugging percentage. It tough to see what changed. In 2024 he did hit a lot more ground balls, but he was also thrown more sinkers. He’s making more contact, but his BABIP is way down. It really seems like 2022 was just an outlier for him. Maybe the Blue Jays picked up on something they can fix. If so, this could turn out to be a very good trade for Toronto.

Straw, like Gimenez, had a nice season he could not repeat. His 3.0 fWAR year came in 2021, 1.6 fWAR in the three years since. Straw, unlike Jimenez, was already in his prime, so it seems unlikely he’ll reach that height again, especially when he’ll be riding the bench.

Scherzer pitches at seasonal age 40 this year. He has not made 30 starts in a campaign since 2021. His strikeout rate dropped two per 9 innings in 2024 versus 2023. We’ll see if it comes back after a healthy winter. His walk rate remains low, but batters are hitting more balls out of the park, so Scherzer might want to start working power hitters more carefully. He is slotted in as the fourth starter, however, and he should fit that role fine.

Hoffman became a different pitcher when he moved to the Phillies two years ago. He raised his K rate and lowered his walk rate, dropping his ERAs into the twos. He dropped his percent of fastballs thrown and replaced those with sliders. That gave him closer stuff, and the Blue Jays were happy to pay for that.

Garcia returns to Toronto after a brief stint in Seattle. He saw his K rate rise in the last two seasons also, but he had high K rate seasons in the past as well. I don’t know if this counts as a real change for Toronto.

Sandlin is the youngster of the bullpen acquisitions, still in his prime as he pitches at seasonal age 28. He is a three-true outcome pitcher as his K, BB, and HR rates are high Home run really jumped the last two seasons. Not only did batters get more balls in the air against him, but the rate of those fly balls leaving the park tripled. He reduced his sinker usage in each of the last two seasons, and it seems to me like it was a bad move.

Toronto fans expressed unhappiness with losing out on Juan Soto. Most of these moves were not bad however. Santander gives him power, Gimenez gives them upside, Scherzer, if healthy, is a good starter on a good staff, and Hoffman should be an excellent closer. It’s not that bad of an off-season. Blue Jays fans hoped for more.

February 22, 2025

Changes, Texas Rangers

The Rangers acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Rangers rebuilt their bullpen after posting the second highest walk rate in the majors, 4.16 per 9 IP, and the fourth highest home run rate at 1.18 per 9 IP. Martin, Armstrong, and Miller project to walk rates below three. Martin and Garcia project to less than a home run per 9 IP. As a group, they all should show much better control and a somewhat better ability to keep the ball in the park. It appears the Rangers understood the weakness of their pitchers and took drastic action to fix the problem.

Pederson is pretty much the definition of what a DH should be. He generates offense with little defensive ability. Rangers designated hitters produced a .204/.263/.322 slash line in 2024, which would be embarrassing for a catcher or a shortstop. Musings Marcels has Pederson at .254/.354/.461. Another problem fixed.

Burger takes over at first base, and this looks like a step back. They traded away Nathaniel Lowe to improve the pen with Garcia. Burger won’t get on base as much, but it’s possible out of Miami that his good home run power gets better.

Higashioka is a solid defensive backup behind the plate.

In general, the Rangers identified weaknesses and did a good job of filling the holes.

February 22, 2025

Changes, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

In addition, Tampa Bay also signed the injured Ha-Seong Kim as a free agent. He is recovering from labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder.

The Rays cautiously have been projecting late May for Kim to resume playing shortstop. It could be a little sooner for second base or DH if the only remaining issue is building strength for the longer throw from shortstop.

Kim told Korean media after his Feb. 3 signing he was targeting late April. Friday, he said that remains his goal, “based on how I feel and how the recovery speed is looking like. So, I’m trying to be optimistic.”

Kim said “everything feels good” so far and he is on schedule with his throwing, which in the early stages is light tossing from short distances. He said he is doing “better than expected” with hitting.

MSN.com

Kim’s strength is his ability to get on base, which projects this season to around .330. Rays shortstops hit .221/.294/.310 in 2024 as Tampa struggled to replace the legally troubled Wander Franco.

Jansen comes off the worst season of his career both offensively and defensively, which is why Tampa Bay was able to sign him for a relatively low price. The bad year could be a fluke, but catchers wear down quickly, and Jansen will play 2025 as a 30 year old. If the Rays get solid defense behind the plate and some of Jansen’s power returns, I think the team will be happy with the move.

Jimenez plays 2025 as a twenty eight year old, still in his prime. Injuries limited his time on the field in his career, but he did manage to produce two good power seasons at ages 23 and 25. The Rays seem to get power out of otherwise average players (think Jose Siri), so maybe they can work their magic on Jimenez. It’s a low risk, high reward move.

Faedo goes into his fourth season in the majors having raised his K rate each of the previous two years. Both rises followed him throwing fewer fastballs. He still does not strike out a lot of batters and his walks and home runs allowed remain high. He will most likely pitch in low leverage situations.

The Rays acquired Vasil in the rule five draft. As a starter, he pitched poorly once he reached AAA, with high walk and home run rates. The Rays look to use him as a long reliever, and maybe less pitching will lead to fewer mistakes.

Kim represents the big move for the Rays, but they will need to wait awhile for him to start producing. There is upside with the others, but I would not have a high confidence that the upside will prevail.

February 22, 2025

Changes, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Yes, that’s right, the Mariners brought in a backup infielder. Solano can play the corners and second base in a pinch. He also has a history of getting on base well, although the projections on FanGraphs show him with a large drop in his OBP this season. Maybe that’s due to the park. Solano has not hit for power in a while. Musings Marcels project him to a .267/.334/.393 slash line, which is pretty good for a backup.

It seems that the Mariners think the squad is good enough to make up the two games that kept them out of the wild card in 2024.

Note that Seattle also acquired minor league catcher Julio E. Rodriguez as a free agent, late of the Tiger. Now if they could just get Julio C. Rodriguez from the Astros, they could have J-Rods right up the middle of the diamond, and one third of a Bugs Bunny team.

February 21, 2025

Changes, San Francisco Giants

The Giants acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Giants are another team that made few moves. Adames gives them a solid shortstop, worth between three and four WAR a season. The offensive and defensive components of the his WAR change, but they never seem to both be down in the same year. Adames plays 2025 at seasonal age 29, still in his prime.

Verlander, on the other hand, is well past his prime. His K rate dropped five years in a row. It was coming off a high level, but at 7.37 per 9 IP in 2024, he no longer blows away batters. In addition, the balls put in play against him are more likely to fall for hits. At 262 career wins, he would need to great seasons or three very good seasons to reach 300. We’ll know this season if that is still possible.

Trivino might prove to be a good, inexpensive pickup. His ERA was well above his FIP numbers in 2024. If he can keep his K rate high, he’ll help the Giants bullpen.

Adames is a nice, long-term addition for the team. Otherwise, there isn’t much new in the city by the bay.

February 20, 2025

Changes, San Diego Padres

The Padres acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Heyward looks to be a platoon player against right-handed pitchers. In three of his last four seasons he posted overall OBPs under .300. Against right-handers in that time, he hit .232/.308/.402. At least there is some pop in there.

Joe does a better job of getting on base, but with little power. He might be the other side of the platoon, hitting .254/.350/.415 for his career against left-handed pitching.

Pivetta gives the Padres a solid fourth starter. He pitched at least 140 innings in each of his last four seasons with a high strikeout rate. He does get hurt by a high home run rate, 1.53 per 9 IP for his career. His home parks were in Philadelphia and Boston. PETCO Park could reduce his home run numbers, making him look like a much better pitcher.

Hart pitched 11 MLB innings in 202 for the Red Sox, and may be the ultimate three-true outcomes pitcher. He allowed 10 walks and four home runs in those eleven innings, striking out 13. That’s 27 PA that ended with no fielder action out of 67 batters faced. Hart pitched better than that in the minors, but played in Korea last year and blew batters away with 10.4 K per 9, 2.18 BB per nine, and just 0.63 home runs per 9. The Padres took a shot on him as their fifth starter.

All these players are older, so they are filling in holes while the rest of the team hopes they play well enough again to make a run to the World Series.

February 20, 2025

Changes, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals did not bring in any players from outside the organization over the winter to add to their active roster. They replaced Paul Goldschmidt by moving Willson Contreras to first base and Ivan Herrera to catcher. Note that Herrera gets on base at a very good clip, something Goldschmidt did not do last year, so this could be a nice positive for the team.

I suspect that bringing in no one from outside the organization is quite rare. There is talk of a Nolan Arenado trade. We’ll see if that happens before the start of the regular season.

February 19, 2025

Changes, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Pirates seem to be content with continuing with a lineup and rotation where most players are in their prime years or approaching their primes. Pham, on the other hand, is a veteran who used to do a good job of getting on base, but 2021 was the last time he reached a .340 OBP. Unless his hits and walks come back, he looks more like a place holder.

Frazier returns to Pittsburgh, where he had his best years. He can give some batters a rest against right-handed pitching, or pinch hits when a platoon advantage is needed.

Horwitz is recovering from wrist surgery. According to this article, the recovery is going well, and he may not miss much time. He would give the Pirates some much needed OBP.

Ferguson is a high strikeout, low home run pitcher, which lets him get away with a higher walk rate. His last two seasons he allowed a high BABIP, which somewhat negated his strikeouts.

Mayza saw a huge drop in his K rate in 2024, 5.91 per 9 IP compared to 9.07 per 9 IP for his career. Combine that with a BABIP of .336, and all those hits led to a 6.33 ERA.

So the Pirates did nothing earth shattering, but the Horwitz deal looks like a good long-term move.

February 19, 2025

Changes, Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Phillies won the NL East and decided to mostly stand pat. Over the years, a lot of Kepler’s value came from his defense, but even that slipped recently. He will be in leftfield instead of center, however, so that may help his defense, since he’ll won’t have to catch every ball he could possibly catch.

Luzardo slots in as the fifth starter in the rotation. He followed up a 178 2/3 innings season in 2023 with on 66 2/3 innings in 2024 due to injury. He says he is healthy. If the Phillies can get 140 innings from him as a fifth starter that would be great.

Romano is also coming off an injury plagued season, undergoing elbow surgery. He is a high K, low home run pitcher when healthy.

Joe Ross will fill the swing man role, mopping up in blow outs and occasionally starting. In his good years, he keeps the ball in the park, in bad years he gives up a ton of homers.

The Phillies have a solid team, so these moves are more tweaks that than anything. Good recoveries by Luzardo and Romano will tell if the moves were successful.

February 18, 2025

Changes, New York Yankees

The Yankees acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Goldschmidt posted a 6.8 fWAR in 2022 at seasonal age 34. He dropped off to 3.4 fWAR in 2023 and 1.1 fWAR in 2024. The Yankees took a flyer on him, hoping he returns closer to his 2023 value. If so both, New York will have bought a bargain. If Goldschmidt continues to decline, there’s always a first baseman who can hit available.

Bellinger is the more interesting offensive acquisition. He peaked early, his best season coming at seasonal age 23, then an injury limited his value. He bounced back a bit in 2023, but could not repeat the 4.4 fWAR in 2024. A left handed batter, maybe Yankee Stadium will help his power. He also gives the Yankees some flexibility if Goldschmidt doesn’t work out, as Bellinger could move to first base.

Jackson takes over as the backup catcher. He is a poor hitter who strikes out a ton, but rates well defensively.

Fried joins Gerrit Cole as two starters who project to three fWAR. The Yankees paid a good amount for Fried’s decline years, but he keeps batters off base with few walks, and prevents home runs. New York has to hope both those strengths age well.

Williams owns the lowest ERA in the majors over the last three seasons, 1.66. That’s among pitchers with at least 140 IP. He walks batters at a high rate, but makes up for it with an extremely high K rate and very few home runs allowed.

Cruz did not reach the major until his age 32 season in 2022, but posted a very high K rate since third highest in the majors. Unlike Williams, however, that has not led to a low ERA.

Bellinger, Fried, and Williams are excellent pick ups. If Bellinger and Goldschmidt both return to their 2023 levels, that would make up for most of the loss of Juan Soto. I don’t if the Yankees improved, but they should be at least as good as 2024.

February 17, 2025

Changes, New York Mets

The Mets acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Soto signed the biggest deal of the off-season, a $765 million contract for 15 years. Musings Marcels project him at .273/.404/.516, but he could do much better than that. Mets right fielders in 2024 hit .258/.314/.395, so there should be a big improvement at that position.

Siri gives the Mets an outstanding defensive centerfielder. While not a great offensive player, Siri developed the skill of hitting home runs. He’s a one-dimensional hitter, but it’s a good dimension.

Madrigal comes off a disappointing season at the plate. The Cubs demoted him to AAA, and he immediately wound up with a broken hand. He is still in his prime, so the Mets hope he can bounce back to be a good infielder off the bench.

The Mets brought in Holmes as a stater, even though he has not started an MLB game since his rookie season of 2018. FanGraphs projects the Mets with six starters, so don’t be surprised if Holmes winds up as a swing man.

Canning showed a big drop in his strikeout rate in 2024, leading to more hits per innings and an ERA over five. He tends to allow a low BABIP, so the Mets defense needs to be on their toes when Canning is on the mound. He should be playing with a better team than he had with the Angels.

Minter slides into the primary setup role in the bullpen after spending his career with the Braves. He is a low walk pitcher, but last season his K rate dropped and his home run rate increased. On top of that, he may have been a bit lucky in 2024 as his 2.62 ERA was much lower than his FIPs.

The Soto signing is great. The other moves are fine, and we’ll see how the starting pitching shakes out.

February 17, 2025

Changes, Minnesota Twins

The Twins acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Minnesota acquired Castellano in the rule five draft, and he should be the only player on the active roster with no major league experience. He posted somewhat better three-true outcomes as he moved up through the minor league system, bringing his walks down a great deal. With a high K rate, he also allows few hits. He mostly started in 2024, so the Twins could use him as a swing man.

FanGraphs projects France to bat eighth. Whenever I see a first baseman batting that low, I think the team could have done better. France rates as a poor defensive player, so unless he hits well he brings little value to the table. It seems the Twins thinking might have been, “We need somebody to play first base, and France is somebody!” It doesn’t look like the Twins have anyone waiting in the wings to fill the position.

Bader serves as the reserve outfielder. While he won’t give the team much with the bat he’ll provide them defense when they need it.

Coulombe returns to the Twins after two very good seasons with Baltimore. He posts excellent three-true outcomes.

I don’t think any of these moves make the Twins that much better. France might even hurt them.

February 17, 2025

Changes, Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Both Durbin and Thomas have no MLB experience. Durbin came over from the Yankees with Nestor Cortes in the Devin Williams trade. Thomas was a rule five draftee from the Cardinals.

Durbin had a great season at AAA in 2024, hitting .297/.396/.471. Note that in his minor league career he always did a great job of getting on base, but the power was new. We’ll see if that holds up in the majors.

Cortes rebounded from an injury shortened 2023 to post a very good 2024. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference differ on his WAR; FG putting him at 3.1, BR at 2.6. Most importantly, he managed 174 1/3 innings, the most he threw in a season. He will play 2025 as a 30 year old, meaning the Yankees traded him early rather than too late.

Alexander and Thomas give the Brewers two more left-handed pitchers in the bullpen. Both project to be low walk, low strikeout pitchers, so they will keep the fielders busy.

Note that middle infielders Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz don’t project to get on base much. That gives Durbin a chance to improve the team by taking one of their spots.

The Brewers are another team that does very little in the off season, but I do like the Williams trade for them.

February 17, 2025

Changes, Miami Marlins

The Marlins acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Hicks, a rule five draftee, is the only player on the projected roster with no major league experience.

Note that all of these changes are at the bottom of the roster. Hicks and Wagaman slot in as backups. Quantrill is listed as the fifth starter. Henriquez should be the last man out of the bullpen.

Hicks does have an important strength. He did an excellent job of getting on base in the minor leagues, but with no power. Offensively, he’s a one-dimensional player, but it’s a very good dimension.

Wagaman does power well, but will eat outs. These are not place filling backups, they have a purpose based on the situation.

Quantrill joins Anthony Bender as the oldest players on the roster, both tuning 30 in the last two weeks (Bender is seven days older). Quantrill is a low three-true outcome pitcher, who saw both his walk and home run rates rise the last two seasons. Pitching in Miami should help with the home runs, and that should allow him to throw more in the strike zone. I could see a rebound here to higher WAR season.

Henriquez owns 31 MLB innings. Like Quantrill, he allows the ball to be put in play, limiting both walks and strikeouts. He has started in the minors, so the Marlins could potentially use him as a swingman.

Miami mostly stood pat, as they have a rather young team. It appears they want this group to mature, which keep costs low. Although the moves were on the edges of the roster, they did bring in some talent, and they now have me a bit intrigued for the season. Note the starting nine project to a very low combined fWAR. We’ll see if the front office knows something that the projections haven’t picked up.