Category Archives: Division Races

April 3, 2024

Early Returns

Leave a reply

Who had the Tigers, Pirates, and Brewers as the only undefeated teams in the majors nearly a week into the season. The NL Central is upside down from where I expect it to end, but the division looks pretty good as all five teams are at least at .500.

The AL East looks good as well, with all the teams in that division at least at .500 as well. The Yankees finally took a loss as Zac Gallen and the Arizona bullpen pitched brilliantly.

The Astros and Athletics own the same 1-5 record. Oakland should start a campaign to bring in the fans, “Come see a team as good as the Astros!”

The NL West and AL Central are the only division with a normal distribution of winning percentages so far. Once again the Dodgers are at the top, with Mookie Betts an early threat for a home run record, or a .400 BA, or both!

The NL East picked up just six wins among the five teams, with both the Mets and Marlins winless. The Braves lead the division with just a 3-2 record.

March 27, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 AL East

Leave a reply

The division previews finish with the AL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

New York Yankees

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.61
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.18
  • Core Winning Percentage: .643

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto both project to over eight RC/G. Two players generating that much offense covers a lot of ills. That’s especially true when the team owns core set of pitchers who are the best in the division. Note that despite a poor season in 2023, Carlos Rodon still projects to be very good, as his 2023 makes up a small part of the projection. Nestor Cortes also comes in below four RC/G, and Gerrit Cole is waiting in the wings. The Yankees right now have the depth to sustain the Cole injury.

That wasn’t true of the offense in 2023, and may not be true this season. I suspect there is upside with Anthony Rizzo regaining his brain health. Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton both hit well in spring training. If those two sluggers are back to their 80% of their old selves, the Yankees have the depth to survive a stubbed toe. This could be a very good season in The Bronx.

Baltimore Orioles

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.39
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.26
  • Core Winning Percentage: .615

The Orioles lineup consists of seven players in their prime years. The front office brought along their talent to mature at the same time, and now they have a chance to build on a division championship. With catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Gunnar Henderson each over 6.0 RC per game, the Orioles project to be the strongest team in the division up the middle. Offensively, the biggest weakness appears to be at first base; that position, however, tends to be easy to fix.

The rotation should benefit from the addition of Corbin Burnes. That takes pressure off the young Grayson Rodriguez to be the ace. The pair offer a pretty good 1-2 punch for an excellent offense. Bringing in a good veteran like Burnes is what young teams do when they are ready to go to the next level.

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.30
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.26
  • Core Winning Percentage: .608

I have my doubts about the Rays this season. They are weak offensively up the middle in a division where everyone else is pretty good. As far as the bat is concerned, Jose Caballero is no Wander Franco. Losing both Franco and McClanahan for a full season is a very tough blow.

I do suspect the Rays put a very good defensive team on the field, however, something that is not measured here. If a good defense can drive down the pitcher core RC/G by a quarter of a run, that might give them enough to compete for the division.

This is a good team, I just don’t think they compare as well to recent seasons.

Boston Red Sox

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.44
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.59
  • Core Winning Percentage: .591

The Red Sox project to own the second best offense in the division in 2024. We know that Rafael Devers shines at the plate, but Triston Casas looks ready to join him. He showed signs of getting on base at a high rate and hitting for power. As he moves into his age 24 season, it’s the right year to take that to the next level.

In addition, there is an upside to a healthy Trevor Story. He ranked in spring training. If can produce a run over his 4.62 projection, the Red Sox core winning percentage should move over .600.

The pitching is the weak spot for the team. Giving Bryan Bello a long-term contract indicates the team believes he will improve his 5.09 RC/G projection, and we’ll see if he can assume the mantle of ace this year. It’s not a bad rotation, and the offense and a decent bullpen could keep them in a division race. It’s a year to be bullish on the Red Sox.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.27
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.39
  • Core Winning Percentage: .590

The Blue Jays rank last in the division in Core Winning Percentage, but just a hair behind the Red Sox. In fact this is not a bad team, they just play in a very good, balanced division. I can’t help but think the Blue Jays should be at the top, not the bottom.

Five years ago this was a team on the rise. They brought a long a large group of young players, almost all of them related to other major leaguers. Only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette turned into stars, and Guerrero peaked in 2021 at seasonal age 22.

The veterans the Blue Jays brought in to complement that group are now old, and not producing as much. The group projects to be the lowest scoring team in the division. Guerrero is still young enough to find his 2021 form again, but the window is closing on this group to produce a championship.

The pitching side is okay. Alek Manoah‘s fall from the rotation hurt, but maybe the shoulder issue that showed up this spring actually started last year? When a player gets that bad that fast, it’s a good bet there is an injury. If he comes back at full strength in a month or two, that will be a positive for the rest of the season. Right now, however, it looks like the Jays could finish over .500 and last in the division.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • New York Yankees 30%
  • Baltimore Orioles 25%
  • Tampa Bay Rays 20%
  • Boston Red Sox 13%
  • Toronto Blue Jays 12%

Any of these teams might get hot, might make the right trade, or find a prospect is ready to contribute and pull away from the rest. In an odd way, despite this being a good division, I can imagine the AL East not sending a wild card to the playoffs. The five teams might beat up on each other enough that none of them have an outstanding record. The upside is that every AL East intra division series should be a good one.

March 27, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL East

Leave a reply

The division previews continue with the NL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Atlanta Braves

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 6.14
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.96
  • Core Winning Percentage: .706

The Braves win super-team status going into the 2024 season. They hold the best RC/G average in the division for core offenses. There are only one of a handful of teams in the majors with a projected core pitching RC/G under 4.0. That combination results in the highest projected core winning percentage in the majors.

In looking at offenses, most team struggle to find one hitter projecting to over 6.0 RC/Game. The Braves boast four of them. Three hitters, Matt Olson, Austin Riley*, and Ronald Acuna Jr. all stand over 7.0 RC/G. It’s not a perfect lineup. Orlando Arcia and Jarred Kelanic are a bit weak in power, but at least are not out machines.

*Riley is the George Harrison of the Braves. Really great, but overshadowed by two even greater hitters.

Note that this is a young lineup as well. Olson is the oldest player of the nine, and he turns 30 on Friday. Youth bring high proficiency at a reasonable cost, the Braves trade mark.

The rotation boasts a great young starter in Spencer Strider, three solid veterans, and reclamation project Chris Sale. Sale walked five and struck out 23 in 14 2/3 spring innings, so that might turn out to be four solid veterans.

They are easily the team to beat in the division, and maybe in the majors.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.76
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.85
  • Core Winning Percentage: .691

The Phillies projection puts them in spitting distance of the Braves. Philadelphia owns the best core pitching projection in division with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler leading the way. The three-four starters, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez project to allow RC/G in the low fours, about half a run better per game than the veterans occupying the Braves 3-4 slots.

This means the Phillies offense doesn’t need to be as good as the Braves offense to win, but they are still really good. They also start three hitters who project to over 6.00 RC/G. There probably is upside to Trea Turner‘s 6.06 projection, as he hit poorly through most of 2023.

A big difference with the Braves lineup comes from age. The Phillies star hitters are mostly past prime, and players in their 30s can fall off quickly. Still the Phillies look like one of the best teams in the NL. We could see the top two winning percentages in the league in this division, another example of a great team having to settle for a wild card.

New York Mets

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.15
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.75
  • Core Winning Percentage: .540

I suspect the Mets will improve this season. They came in at -5 wins compared to their Pythagorean projection, and regression to the mean tends to balance that out year to year.

The offense looks a bit weak at this point, but hope exists. Brett Baty hit extremely well in the minors, and with some MLB experience under his belt, there is likely quite a bit of upside to his projection. Pete Alonso produced an off year in 2023, but is still in his prime. Getting J.D. Martinez into the lineup eventually will help.

On the other hand, it’s a rather old lineup, and that could balance the gains from the youngsters doing better.

The starting staff fails to impress. These are older veterans who project to be okay, but the great Mets franchises had great starting pitching.

The main problem with the Mets right now is the lack of a plan. The Braves find great young talent and sign them to long-term contracts. The let free agents go, and manage to replace them with younger, more cost-effective talent. The Phillies do a great job of evaluating free agents and improving the team through that route. It may not be as long-term effective as the Braves strategy, but the Phillies, for the third year in a row, are perfectly capable of winning a World Series.

The Mets have not given any plan a chance to work. With a new front office, they appear to have pulled back from the “Win it all now!” mentality. The Mets have the money to be the Dodgers or the Braves or the Astros. That doesn’t mean winning now, but it could lead to a dominant team for many years.

Miami Marlins

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.03
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.73
  • Core Winning Percentage: .531

I don’t see where the Marlins obviously improved over 2023. Losing Sandy Alcantara hurts a great deal, although he will help out as much as possible. The Tim Anderson signing is a high risk, high reward move, but does not represent an obvious increase in the team’s offense. Luis Arraez probably regresses to his career averages, which is still great, but I don’t expect him to hit .350 again. The offense is not young; one would hope there are prospects coming up through the system.

On the other hand, the rotation is very young, so there is potential for upside there. If the core can get their RC/G down half a run, the Marlins are looking at a third place instead of a fourth place finish. Max Meyer is the key here, as his minor league numbers are much better than Ryan Weathers.

Like the Mets, the Marlins went through some front office upheaval over the last few seasons, so a good plan may not be in place yet.

Washington Nationals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.71
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.58
  • Core Winning Percentage: .416

Why did the Nationals stand pat after a better than expected season? The projections for this core are just terrible. One would think that eating the last year of Patrick Corbin‘s contract and replacing him with their best AAA pitcher might improve the team, but no, the Nationals would rather pay Corbin to pitch badly.

On offense, only three hitters project to be better than 5.0 RC/Game. That should be the floor for most core hitters. Joey Meneses ranks highest at 5.21 runs per game. They did add Jesse Winker at 5.16 RC/G, but that’s hardly a difference maker.

I suspect the National believe that Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore will make strides this season. Here’s an article that talks about their makeup. That’s all fine, but Gray and Gore are not young any more. They are in their early primes and neither delivered an outstanding season in their careers.

There may be prospects knocking on the door. The last CBA was designed to clear the way for those youngsters coming to the majors sooner than later. We’ll see how many come up in time to give the Nationals seven years of control, and how many miss on super two status. The opening day core looks like a team tanking to me.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Atlanta Braves 45%
  • Philadelphia Phillies 35%
  • New York Mets 11%
  • Miami Marlins 8%
  • Washington Nationals 1%

There should be a tight race for first and second, and a tight race for third and fourth. Note that the Nationals have the chance to be historically bad, which will help the Mets and Marlins compete for a wild card, much like the A’s last season helped the AL West put three teams into playoff contention last year.

March 24, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 AL West

1 Reply

The division previews continue with the AL West. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Houston Astros

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 6.04
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.33
  • Core Winning Percentage: .660

The Astros enter the eighth season of their AL dynasty in extremely good shape to win another title. They managed to replace the stars of past so that six of the nine core batters sit in their prime years, most in their early primes. The one older veteran they kept long term, Jose Altuve, projects to be the second best hitter in the lineup. The Braves were extremely adept at this in the 1990s (and today as well). It’s a very impressive job by the front office. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the two leading prime players on the team, and both are offensive stars, they are a big reason Houston’s 6.04 Position Player RC/G is the best in the division.

The core pitchers look very good as well, although three of them are rather inexperienced. There projections should be take with a great deal of uncertainty in both directions. One thing to watch with the pitchers will be how they do with Yainer Diaz taking over the front line catching duties. Diaz adds a ton to the offense over Martin Maldonado. I suspect his offense will make up for any defense lost from Maldonado’s departure.

The pitching core as a whole should be good enough for the offense, and good enough for another division title.

Seattle Mariners

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.27
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
  • Core Winning Percentage: .636

The Mariners did surprisingly well in this analysis, with an impressive core winning percentage. Seattle put together a pitching core that ranks first in the division. Four of the five starters project to RC/G of around four. If you look through all the team evaluated so far, that grouping is rather unusual. George Kirby looks to be the ace, but Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert are right with him.

While I’ve seen complaints about the construction of the offense this winter, the team is actually good up the middle. As I love to say, it’s easier to fix problems on the corners than in the middle of the field. Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, and Cal Raleigh give them room to maneuver.

Seattle won’t be the favorite for the division, but there’s no reason they can’t give the Astros a run for their money.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.68
  • Core Winning Percentage: .574

I have come not to trust the Angels projections over the years. Someone gets hurt. Some young player doesn’t live up to expectations. The team can’t pull itself out of a downward spiral.

This team, however, projects to be the best team in the division up the middle, and that is an important marker. A lot of that is Mike Trout projecting to 7.44 RC/G, but catcher Logan O’Hoppe, should be good. He projected well last season as well, but was almost immediately injured.

Of course one tends to believe that their is lots of upside to the Anthony Rendon projection. The Angles need to hope that he pulls a Cody Bellinger, stays healthy, and has a super year.

The pitching staff looks meh. There’s no one great, but no one terrible either.

The Angles have a shot at finishing over .500, and with the expanded playoff system, a team doesn’t need to be that far over .500 to reach the post season. I will not get my hopes up, but the Angels could be a pleasant surprise.

Texas Rangers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.41
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.77
  • Core Winning Percentage: .562

I am as surprised by the Rangers projection as I am by the Angels projection. This is a good young offense, which should be even better with a full season of Evan Carter and rookie Wyatt Langford. I normally put in rookies at 4.5 RC/G, but Wyatt’s minor league numbers look so good I upped him to a 5.0, which might still be an understatement.

The problem comes from the two great starting pitchers on the team, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer each missing at least have the season on the illjured list. The current rotation is not good. While more and more teams are dependent on their bullpens, this group will give the relievers very few days of rest. Bruce Bochy is good at managing his staff, but the offense can’t afford to take a break in 2024. It’s a tough division with four good teams, and right now it looks like a World Series repeat would be difficult.

Oakland Athletics

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.75
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.76
  • Core Winning Percentage: .498

This is a slightly worse Core Winning Percentage than the Athletics projected to last season.

I want to find upside in the offensive lineup. Five of the core hitters are in their early prime years, which should be good. They have little major league experience, however, indicating they may really be career minor leaguers. None of them sport projections that indicate players on the rise, although Musings Marcels likes Zack Gelof much more than the FanGraphs projection.

On the pitching side, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling were good once, but both are past their primes and have not done well lately. Again, it is really difficult to find upside here.

It’s tough to believe the A’s might be worse than last season, but there is no evidence the team tried to get better. Maybe they are taking falling below the 1962 Mets more seriously in 2024.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Houston Astros 35%
  • Seattle Mariners 30%
  • Texas Rangers 19%
  • LAA Angels 17%
  • Oakland Athletics 1%

The Rangers and Angels ranking goes against the projected WL Pct. The Rangers have upside. I am just so jaded by the Angels failing to meet expectations that I just factored into my estimate. I think Seattle fans should be excited for this season. It’s a strong division, with all four contender strong up the middle.

March 24, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL Central

1 Reply

The division previews continue with the NL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.47
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.45
  • Core Winning Percentage: .601

The Reds positioned themselves to take control of the NL Central in 2024. On offense, opponents face no glaring holes; the batting order is consistent top to bottom. Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Tyler Stephenson sit in the middle of their primes. Elly De La Cruz* and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are young and offer quite a bit of upside. This team should generate runs at a high rate.

*Cruz reminds me of Bo Jackson. I felt Jackson was somewhat overrated offensively, but he was one of the few players I would pay to see perform. Jackson was an exciting, dynamic player. Cruz may fit that model.

The Reds are the strongest team offensively up the middle.

The rotation doesn’t really hold an ace, but none of the starters rank as terrible. The starters and closer are more than good enough for the offense, plus it’s tough to generate a good projection in that ballpark.

If the Reds acquired a superstar hitter in the off season, they might run away with the division. Instead, they’ve developed a cost effective winning team.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.52
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.64
  • Core Winning Percentage: .587

The Cardinals mirror the Dodgers this season, in that they leave me unimpressed with their pitching staff. Both of those teams over the years seemed to maintain a constant flow of minor league talent to the mound, despite winning records that limited draftable talent. This rotation is old, with only Zach Thompson, in his early prime, offering any chance at an upside.

Ryan Helsley ranks as the division’s best closer, but none of the closers are very strong.

The Cardinals offense, however, projects to be the best in the division. They start three batters who project to better than six RC/G, the only team in the division with more than one. They do have a couple of potential holes in Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson, but Winn is young enough to have some upside and prove that projection wrong.

I would be very surprised if the Cardinals repeated their last place finish is 2023. They did a good job rebuilding the offense, and we’ll see who they have in the pitching pipeline of the veteran starters falter.

Chicago Cubs

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.44
  • Core Winning Percentage: .568

The Cubs bring the best core pitching in the division to the table, although they are only 0.01 runs better than the Reds. Chicago may very well be better than that number, as Kyle Hendricks‘ poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 drive up his RC/G. We will see if he can continue to compensate for a lower K rate by limiting walks and home runs. A lot will also depend on how well Shota Imanaga adjusts to the majors after pitching in Japan. He may well be the ace.

Offensively, the Cubs are in the same position with Cody Bellinger as with Kyle Hendricks. Two poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 moderate the expectations for Bellinger repeating his outstanding 2023. There is plenty of prime talent in the rest of the order, so if those two veterans can keep things turned around, the Cubs will compete for the division title.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.03
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.73
  • Core Winning Percentage: .531

The Brewers took a step back this season, especially in the core pitching. While Freddy Peralta projects to be the best starter in the division, the rest of the rotation and the closer offer unimpressive results. You can see why Craig Counsell, wanted to leave. He doesn’t want to rebuild, and the Cubs offer a much better chance of winning soon.

The team looks less impressive on offense as well, although that was not their strength in 2023. They project to be the lowest scoring team in the division in 2024. The silver lining her is that the offense is decently strong up the middle. If by chance they find themselves in contention, it’s easier to improve offensively on the corners than at the skill positions.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.91
  • Core Winning Percentage: .519

The Pirates did not seem to do much to build on their fourth place finish in 2023. Mostly, they once again failed to put decent talent around their one great hitter, Bryan Reynolds. Maybe they finally get a good season out of Oneil Cruz. Maybe Ke’Bryan Hayes does more than play great defense. The young hitters aren’t that young anymore, and if they don’t hit their strides soon, this will go down as a failed development cycle.

The offense needs to be good to compensate for the poor core pitching, projected to be the worst in the division. Maybe rookie Jared Jones turns out to be good, but there’s nothing in his minor league numbers that scream ace.

Maybe there is talent waiting in the minors, but this looks like another disappointing season for the Pirates.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Cincinnati Reds 45%
  • St. Louis Cardinals 25%
  • Chicago Cubs 20%
  • Milwaukee Brewers 7%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates 3%

If you like catchers who can hit, this is a great division. Given the overall lack of pitching talent, I expect rather high scoring games when these teams meet head to head.

The Reds should take the title, but I don’t think they will run away. The big question for me is will the Cardinals or the Cubs give them the most trouble?

March 23, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 AL Central

Leave a reply

The division previews continue with the AL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.46
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.43
  • Core Winning Percentage: .603

The Twins come in with the best core offense in the division. Second baseman Edouard Julien and third baseman Royce Lewis lead the way, both coming in at well over six runs created per game. Both are entering their primes this year, meaning they are still likely to improve. Five of the nine batters expected to get most of the starts are in their early primes, a good age for an offense.

The Twins also get Byron Buxton back in centerfield for as long as he can stay healthy. His projection may have some upside, also.

The pitching is fine. There is no one great and no one terrible. They are all in the middle of their primes. So Minnesota has a team of good talent at a good age. That can win in this weak division.

Cleveland Guardians

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.31
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.31
  • Core Winning Percentage: .603

The Guardians tie the Twins for the best core winning percentage in the division, but do so by projecting to the best core pitching in the AL Central. Cleveland employs three outstanding starters in Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, and Triston McKenzie. Carlos Carrasco returns to Cleveland, this time as a Guardian. He won the fifth spot in the rotation as he posted a good ERA in spring training. His ability to strike out batters did not improve, however, over his disastrous 2023. We’ll see if he really found a way to survive without Ks.

Emmanuel Clase gives the Guardians the on shutdown closer in the division.

On offense, they are just a tick behind the Twins, but with Jose Ramirez their only star. Bo Naylor looks to provide a good bit of punch at catcher. Ramirez is the only projected offensive starter over 30, and so the Guardians could easily improve on their projection.

The Twins-Guardians games this year should be a lot of fun as these two good young teams vie for the division championship.

Detroit Tigers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.99
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.55
  • Core Winning Percentage: .546

The Tigers appear to be moving in the right direction. Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson project to be a good 1-2 punch in the front of the rotation. It’s seems like Jack Flaherty has been around forever, but he’s only in his seasonal age 28 year and a rebound by him could five the Tigers three solid starters.

The Tigers have some youth on offense, and bat the best ones at the top of the order. The veterans on the offensive side are there to fill holes until more prospect can come along. True rookie Colt Keith makes the team after hitting well at AA and AAA in 2023. There is a lot of upside to his 4.5 RC/G projection.

The Tigers are on their way up. They need to have everything go right, or more prospects emerge as the season progresses. They are close enough for a shot at a division title.

Kansas City Royals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.01
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.81
  • Core Winning Percentage: .525

The Royals, too, are moving in the right direction, just not as fast as the Tigers. There is some youth there, but KC still features more veterans and more players in the middle of their primes than the Tigers.

On offense, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are the rising stars. Pasquantino, at seasonal age 25, is past prospect status at this point. Both will need to up their game to get the Royals offense moving.

On the pitching side, Cole Ragans looks like a decent ace, but there is not all that much behind him.

The Royals age indicates this team should be maturing into their best. It doesn’t look like their best won’t be enough to compete for the division title.

Chicago White Sox

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.76
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.98
  • Core Winning Percentage: .478

The White Sox are treading water. There is talent on offense with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. Garrett Crochet may turn out to be a good starter. There is not much complementing talent, however. There are no very young players on offense to watch develop, and while starting pitcher Nick Nastrini is a true rookie, he is 24 and didn’t exactly light up the minor leagues.

We’ll have to see if the White Sox start bringing other youngsters as the season progresses, but right now they appear to be playing for a good draft pick.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Minnesota Twins 35%
  • Cleveland Guardians 35%
  • Detroit Tigers 20%
  • Kansas City Royals 9%
  • Chicago White Sox 1%

The division has no superstar talent. There are no batters who project to over 7 runs create per game, and no starting pitchers who project to under 3 runs created per game. These are the everyman teams. It’s possible that the division is decided by one of the youngsters blossoming into that superstar and carrying the team to title.

March 18, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL West

Leave a reply

Updated 3/19/2024 to reflect Giants signing Blake Snell.

The division previews begin with the NL West as the Dodgers and Padres play two games in South Korea this week. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 6.17
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.59
  • Core Winning Percentage: .644

The Dodgers once again rank as the favorite to win the NL West, but they are not as strong as usual. The Dodgers came in at .746 CWP in 2021, 741 in 2022, and 6.99 in 2023. Even with all their resources, it is difficult to maintain a strong team over a long period of time. Players age and/or get injured. Winning means picking later in the draft, so maintaining a farm system gets more difficult.

This year, the pitching injuries pulled down the team. Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Tony Gonsolin all start the season on the illjured list, and the Dodgers can’t use Shohei Ohtani on the mound. The resulting rotation is good but not great.

On the offensive side, there is a lot of value crammed into a few players. This is not a lineup that can hurt an opponent from every slot. The Dodgers do project as the strongest offensive team up the middle, but to achieve that they moved their rightfielder to shortstop.

If any other NL West team is going to make a run at the Dodgers, this is the season to do it.

San Diego Padres

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.06
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
  • Core Winning Percentage: .616

It looks to me like much of the negative talk around the Padres off-season was undeserved. They go into the season with the best projected core pitchers in the division. While they may not have lived up to expectations in 2023, the core of the offense is still pretty good. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. still have good projections, and a rebound by all three would make the projections even better.

On top of that, rookie Jackson Merrill is having a great spring. If his conservative projection turns out to be too low, the offense will be better than expected.

The Padres should be in contention for the division title, especially if the Dodgers lose one of their big guns to an injury.

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.33
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.56
  • Core Winning Percentage: .578

The defending NL Champs received good seasons from their youngsters while veterans Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.rebounded, Marte helping them be one of the strongest teams up the middle in the division. The youngsters are still pre-prime, so the Diamondbacks should expect more improvement from the quartet.

The pitching staff is solid, but there is less upside there. Brandon Pfaat offers best chance for improvement, but even if he lives up to his projection, the offense should be good enough to carry the staff.

If the Diamondbacks get off to a hot start like they did in 2023, I suspect this more mature team will be better equipped to keep that pace going.

San Francisco Giants

Updated to reflect Giants signing Blake Snell.

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.82
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
  • Core Winning Percentage: .594

The Giants quietly put together a good, young, pitching staff. Three of the starters sit in the middle of their prime years, while Kyle Harrison and Mason Black have yet to reach prime years. While there may not be a true ace in the group, all can pitch well enough to keep the Giants in the game.

Update: Blake Snell replaces Mason Black in the rotation after signing a two-year, $62 million contract. Snell lowers the core pitcher RC/G Average from 4.15 to 3.99. This ties the Padres for the best pitching core in the division.

The offense is weak, especially in power. No player projects to at least six runs per 27 outs, the only team in the NL West lacking such a bat. On the other hand, Nick Ahmed is the only poor offensive player on the team. Newcome Jung Hoo Lee gives them an excellent lead-off man, and his projections may be a bit low. The offense could really use an offensive rebound by Matt Chapman.

This team ranks very close to the Diamondbacks, although the Arizona strikes me as having more upside. A wild card is not out of the question for San Francisco.

Update: The Snell signing puts the Giants well ahead of the Diamondbacks in the division.

Colorado Rockies

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.23
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.39
  • Core Winning Percentage: .485

The Rockies seem to be treading water right now. They’re inexperienced players tend to be older, already in their prime, so there is not much upside in that group. They also seem to be back in the rut of bringing along pitchers who can’t handle Coors. So they will have a high scoring offense, but give up more runs than they allow. It’s not pretty, and they may be headed for another horrible season in an otherwise strong division.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Los Angeles Dodgers 35%
  • San Diego Padres 30%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks 18%
  • San Francisco Giants 16%
  • Colorado Rockies 1%

Update: Reworked probabilities after the Snell signing:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers 35%
  • San Diego Padres 30%
  • San Francisco Giants 20%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks 14%
  • Colorado Rockies 1%

I think this should be one of the more competitive years in the NL West in recent history.

November 6, 2023

Early Odds

Leave a reply

The early lines for the 2024 season league championships are out, courtesy of www.betonline.ag:

Odds to Win the 2024 American League
Texas Rangers17/4(+425)
Houston Astros19/4(+475)
Baltimore Orioles6/1(+600)
New York Yankees8/1(+800)
Toronto Blue Jays8/1(+800)
Tampa Bay Rays9/1(+900)
Seattle Mariners10/1(+1000)
Boston Red Sox12/1(+1200)
Minnesota Twins14/1(+1400)
Cleveland Guardians28/1(+2800)
Detroit Tigers28/1(+2800)
Los Angeles Angels33/1(+3300)
Chicago White Sox50/1(+5000)
Kansas City Royals75/1(+7500)
Oakland Athletics100/1(+10000)
Odds to Win the 2024 National League
Atlanta Braves7/2(+350)
Los Angeles Dodgers4/1(+400)
Philadelphia Phillies11/2(+550)
San Diego Padres9/1(+900)
New York Mets11/1(+1100)
Arizona Diamondbacks14/1(+1400)
Chicago Cubs16/1(+1600)
San Francisco Giants16/1(+1600)
Milwaukee Brewers18/1(+1800)
Cincinnati Reds20/1(+2000)
St Louis Cardinals20/1(+2000)
Miami Marlins25/1(+2500)
Pittsburgh Pirates28/1(+2800)
Washington Nationals35/1(+3500)
Colorado Rockies100/1(+10000)
As of 11/6/2023

I suspect bettors underestimated the NL Central here. The Brewers and Reds deserve more credit. The Marlins seem low, also.

Are the Tiger underestimated as well? They just made a deal for veteran Mark Canha. He addresses a team weakness in getting on base. It’s the kind of move good teams make when they are ready to win, plugging a weakness with a veteran. We shall see.

The AL East looks like a monster division again, although the Yankees look overrated to me. They need to build a good, complementary roster around their two superstars, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. People still like the Padres and Mets. I understand thinking the Padres have to play better, but after the Mets tore their roster apart, I don’t see them recovering that quickly.

The longshot bet would be the White Sox. New management might just figure out the disfunction, and there is talent there. They’ve already let Tim Anderson go to free agency.

October 1, 2023

Rangers Quieted

Leave a reply

The Mariners beat the Rangers 1-0, Texas, each team gathering just four hits. George Kirby pitched six shutout innings as the starter, walking none and striking out seven. The Rangers blow a golden opportunity to win the AL West.

The Astros lead the Diamondbacks 8-0 in the seventh inning, so it will take quite the comeback to deny the Astros the AL West title. Houston holds the tie-breaker, going 9-4 against the Rangers in the regular season.

October 1, 2023 October 1, 2023 September 30, 2023 September 30, 2023

No Massive Ties

Leave a reply

The Rangers beat Mariners 6-1, knocking the Mariners out of contention for the AL West title. Since the Astros hold the tie-breaker against the Rangers, the division race is not over yet. The Rangers magic number is one for the AL West.

If the Astros can hold on to their 1-0 lead over the Diamondbacks, Houston will clinch a playoff slot.

September 30, 2023

Diamondbacks Clinch

Leave a reply

The Cardinals beat the Reds 15-6, which puts the Diamondbacks into the Wild Card round. The Cubs could tie the Diamondbacks, but Arizona holds the tie breaker. So all that is left to settle is which of the Marlins or Diamondbacks will be the two seed. The Marlins hold the tie breaker between the two teams.

Arizona currently trails Houston 1-0 in the eighth inning.

September 30, 2023

Marlins Clinch

Leave a reply

The Marlins beat the Pirates 7-3, which guarantees them a wild card slot. The best the Cubs and Reds could do is tie the Marlins, and the Marlins have tie breakers against both teams. With the Diamondbacks trailing the Astros 1-0 in the sixth, and the Marlins holding the tie-breaker, Miami could wind up with the second wild card slot without having to play the missing half inning Monday.

Congratulations to the Marlins! It was not an easy season for them, but they had a number of trades work out well, especially the Luis Arraez deal. We’ll see if they can keep the magic going in the wild card round.

September 30, 2023 September 30, 2023 September 30, 2023

Clubbing Cubs

Leave a reply

The Cubs, needing a victory and help to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race, hit three home runs in the first inning off Eric Lauer of the Brewers. Yan Gomes hit one of those, a grand slam, and the Cubs lead 6-0 early.

Update: Looks like it will be a slugfest in Milwaukee as the Brewers narrows the lead to 6-5 as they bat in the bottom of the second inning.

Update: Milwaukee ties the game at six at the end of two innings.

September 30, 2023

Walls of Silence

Leave a reply

Taylor Walls comes up for the Rays in the top of the tenth inning, Tampa Bat and Toronto tied at four. With two out and and the bases loaded, he drops a single in front of the rightfielder to put the Rays up 6-4.

The change in volume at Skydome was jarring. The crowd was loud and strong, cheering on the Jays, and as soon as the ball touched the ground, the crowd went silent.

The Rays added another run, the lead now 7-4 going to the bottom of the tenth. A win by the Jays puts them in the post-season.

Update: The Rays win 7-5. It might be an important win, because if Seattle wins later tonight, then the game in meaningful for Toronto tomorrow, and they would need to start Kevin Gausman. If Gausman starts tomorrow, he would not be able to start against the Rays if Toronto and Tampa Bay wind up facing each other in the Wild Card round.

September 30, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

Leave a reply

The good news is that the various massive tie scenarios are still alive with two days left in the season. The bad news is that due to the Cubs losing on Friday, we can’t have both a massive tie for the AL West and a four-way tie for the NL Wild Card. The Astros and Diamondbacks are playing each other. For the three way tie to happen in the AL West, the Astros need to split the final two games. For the Diamondbacks to be involved in a massive tie, they need to lose both remaining games.

The Mariners beat the Rangers 8-0 Friday night, J.P. Crawford hitting a grand slam, and a bullpen game due to Bryan Woo throwing 82 pitches in 3 2/3 innings limited the Rangers to three hits to go along with eight walks. The Astros downed the Diamondbacks 2-1, Arizona not scoring until the 9th inning, an unearned run. The Mariners need to win the last two games of this series, a 0.25 probability, while the Astros need to split the two games, a 0.50 probability, making the overall probability of a three-way tie 0.125.

In the NL, the Marlins 4-3 comeback win pulls them even in the loss column with the Diamondbacks, Miami holding the tie-breaker between the two clubs. The Marlins also have a lead in a suspended game in their pocket, so it would be somewhat easy to make up the win. The Cubs and Reds are now tied, two games back of the Diamondbacks. So for a four way tie, the Cubs and Reds need to win both remaining games, while the Marlins and Diamondback lose their two remaining games. That probability is 0.006. There are, however multiple ways to get a three-way tie; Diamondbacks-Marlins-(Cubs/Reds), Diamondbacks-(Cubs/Reds) , Marlins-(Cubs/Reds), some three-way tie in the NL has a probability of around 0.13.

There is also a 0.03 probability of a tie between the Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners, and Rangers, since that tie is only possible if the AL West also ends in a three-way tie.

It looks like we have a 0.25 probability of some massive tie when the season ends Sunday or Monday.

For today, the best results would be:

  • The Blue Jays lose to the Rays.
  • The Marlins get caught by the Pirates.
  • The Cubs down the Brewers.
  • The Mariners continue their streak against the Rangers.
  • The Reds beat the Red Birds.
  • The Astros defang the Diamondbacks (this keeps all options open).

It’s another fun day!

September 29, 2023

Massive Tie Scenario

Leave a reply

To my great delight, two of the possible massive tie scenarios improved last night. J.P. Crawford of the Mariners gets a lot of the credit as he hit a bases loaded, two out, walk off double to turn a 2-1 Texas lead into a 3-2 Seattle victory. A three-way tie for the AL West occurs if the Mariners take the next three games from the Rangers (1/8), and Houston takes two of three from the Diamondbacks (3/8). a probability of 0.0469.

With the Blue Jays beating the Yankees 6-0, a three-way tie for the bottom two wild card slots including Seattle and Houston stands at 0.0351, down 0.0001.

Rain threw a monkey wrench into the NL Wild Card race as the weather forced a suspension of the game between the Marlins and the Mets with Miami leading 2-1 at the start of the bottom of the ninth inning. The game will be completed Monday. With the Diamondbacks falling to the White Sox 3-1 and the Cubs losing to Atlanta 5-3, the probability of a four way tie including the Reds is now 0.00225, and the probability of a three-way tie among the top three teams is 0.0296.

For today, the best results would be:

  • The Marlins scuttle the Pirates.
  • The Blue Jays fall to the Rays.
  • The Cubs defeat the Brewers.
  • The Reds clip the wings of the Cardinals.
  • The Astros defang the Diamondbacks.
  • Seattle wins over the Rangers.

That gives us six meaningful games with three days left in the season, an advantage of expanding the playoffs.

September 28, 2023

Orioles Clinch

Leave a reply

The Orioles decided the AL East race tonight with a 2-0 win over the Red Sox. The best they Rays can do is tie Baltimore for first place, but the Orioles hold the tie breaker. Tampa Bay gets the top wild card seed and will host the first round of the playoffs.

Dean Kremer started and pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings, striking out eight. Over all the pitching staff allowed just three hits and one walk to secure the division, with ten strikeouts total.

Anthony Santander homered in the first inning for the only run the Orioles would need.

September 28, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

Leave a reply

The Rangers won Wednesday night and Houston beat Seattle, leaving the possibility of a three-way tie for the AL West intact, but it’s a huge longshot. The Mariners, four games behind Texas, need to sweep the four-game series with the Rangers in Seattle. There is a 1 in 16 chance of that happening. The Astros would need to take two of three from the Diamondbacks, a 3 in 8 chance, for a probability of 3/128 or 0.023. There is a better chance of a three-way tie for the last wild card slot between the Blue Jays, Astros, and Mariners, 0.0352.

The three-way ties in the NL wild card race look dead with the four-way tie at 0.001 and the three-way tie at 0.026. Maybe things will look brighter after tonight’s games. I may need to switch this to the Reds, Marlins, and Cubs for the third wild card slot.

The best results for tonight would be:

  • The Diamondbacks fall to the White Sox.
  • The Blue Jays lay an egg against the Yankees.
  • Miami defeats the Mets.
  • The Cubs beat the Braves.
  • The Mariners sail past the Rangers.
September 27, 2023

Braves on Top

Leave a reply

The Braves clinched the best record in the NL as they comeback three times against the Cubs to win 6-5. Ronald Acuna Jr.stole two bases to become the first player with 70 steals and 40 home runs.

The Cubs fall two games behind the Diamondbacks in the race for the second wild card slot, and they could wind up tied for the third slot if the Marlins can hold on to win game two against the Mets. The Marlins hold the tie-breaker against the Cubs.

September 27, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

Leave a reply

It Tuesday was a decent day for the Massive tie scenarios. The AL West tie got an infusion as the Rangers fell to the Angels 9-3 and the Mariners downed the Astros 6-2. The independent calculation of the probability of a three-way is 0.01, but the games are not independent. Right now, the Mariners trail the Rangers by three games. They must go into their four-game head-to-head series an even number of games out to have the possibility of a tie. So the Rangers and Mariners need to have different outcomes today for a three-way tie to be possible. So there is a 50% chance this scenario ends tonight.

In the NL Wild Card, the Reds won to keep their hopes alive. The Diamondbacks won and the Cubs lost, while the Marlins were rained out. Miami plays a doubleheader today against the Mets. The probability of a three-way tie between Arizona, Chicago, and Miami stands at 0.044, or 1 in 22 chances. The four-way tie is still a long-shot at 0.0056.

The best results for today would be:

  • The Diamondbacks fall to the White Sox.
  • The Marlins sweep the Mets.
  • The Reds defeat the Guardians.
  • The Cubs scalp the Braves.
  • The Rangers fall to the Angels.
  • The Mariners rocket by the Astros.

If the Mariners win and the Rangers lose, then Seattle needs to take three of four over the weekend to force a tie. If the Rangers win and the Mariners lose, then Seattle needs to sweep.

September 26, 2023

Brewers Clinch

Leave a reply

The Brewers needed a win or a Cubs loss to clinch the NL Central division. Early on it looked like another night without locking down the championship as the Cubs got out to an 6-0 lead over the Braves and St. Louis led Milwaukee 4-1 after five innings. The Cardinals hung on for the 4-1 win, but the Cubs blew the lead, losing it when Seiya Suzuki appeared to lose a Matt Olson fly ball in the lights in the eighth inning. Two runs score as the ball goes by Suzuki, and the Braves win 7-6. Milwaukee wins the NL Central.

If the Orioles hold on to win the AL East. All six franchises at the top of the division moved from another location. That’s two third of the franchises that made a major move since the leagues settled early in the first years of the 20th century. Two of the teams once played in Washington, and one of the other teams played in Milwaukee.

Correction: Fixed the score of the Braves game.

September 26, 2023 September 26, 2023

Massive Tie Scenarios

Leave a reply

The chance of a massive tie in the AL West crashed on Monday as the two leading teams, the Rangers and Astros both won, the Astros downing Seattle to send the Mariners four games back in the AL West race. There are few paths left to a three-way tie as the probability crashes to 0.0045. That pretty much leaves us with a possible three-way tie in the NL Wild Card.

For today, the best results would be:

  • The Reds get by the Guardians.
  • The Marlins defeat the Mets.
  • The Cubs fall to the Braves.
  • The Diamondbacks lose to the White Sox.
  • The Rangers fall to the Angels.
  • The Mariners find victory over the Astros.

We’re going to have some fun tonight.

September 25, 2023

Limiting AL West Tie Senarios

Leave a reply

Due to the teams in the AL West playing each other down the stretch, not all paths to a tie work. First, the Rangers and Mariners finish the season with a four-game series, so they need to be separated by an even number of games going into Thursday’s game to have any chance at tying each other. Also, if Seattle sweeps Houston and the Angels sweep the Rangers, a split of the four game series but both teams at least a game ahead of the Astros.

September 25, 2023

Massive Tie Scenario, NL Wild Card

Leave a reply

The Yankees beat the Diamondbacks 6-4 Monday afternoon, scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to seal the deal. The Yankees bunched their offense well, getting six hits and two walks from the 1-4 hitters. and out homering the DBacks 2-0.

The loss drops the Diamondbacks into a tie with the Cubs for the second and third NL Wild Card positions. The Marlins sit one game back, all with six to play. The Diamondback won the season series against the Cubs 6-1, so in a two-way tie the Diamondbacks get the higher seed.

In a three-way tie, however, the Marlins hold the tie breaker, going 8-4 (4-2 against each opponent). Arizona was 6-1 against the Cubs, but their 8-3 overall record would put them second. The Cubs lose all tie breakers here, so they want to finish on top .

The probability of the three way tie now stands at 0.0474, or about 1 success in 21 chances.