Matt Holliday
Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Oakland Athletics. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
- Best lineup: 5.27 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.14 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.99 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.74 runs per game
The Athletics scored 4.01 runs per game in 2008.
Given the projections for the A’s starting nine, I would come up with a slightly different batting order. Cust makes better sense as the number five hitter than batting behind Chavez and Ellis. Eric only makes sense in the five hole if the Athletics believe that Chavez is going to return to his former glory instead of winding up hampered by injuries.
Still, this is a much better lineup than in 2008. Holliday and Giambi give the offense two legitimate on-base hitters to complement Cust and good power to boot. If they do indeed score three quarters of a run more per game, that should translate to twelve more wins. That would bring them to 87 wins, a .537 team. It’s fairly easy for a .537 team to randomly win 92 games, and that is likely to be enough to get them into the playoffs. Oakland fans should be optimistic in 2009
Other teams in this series:
- Texas Rangers (see this entry for a full explanation of this system).
- Chicago Cubs
- Boston Red Sox
- Minnesota Twins
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago White Sox
- Cleveland Indians
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Yankees
- Baltimore Orioles
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Florida Marlins
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Atlanta Braves
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Colorado Rockies
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Houston Astros
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Cincinnati Reds
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Kansas City Royals
- Seattle Mariners
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