March 13, 2009
Team Offense, Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Braun bats with Prince Fielder on deck.
Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Brewers 2008 numbers. The results:
- Best lineup: 4.95 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.71 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.28 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.47 runs per game
The Brewers scored 4.63 runs per game in 2008.
There's a huge gap between the best and worst lineups the Brewers can put on the field. That usually signifies a large spread of talent in the batting order. For teams like this, it really does matter how the manager constructs his lineup. The only thing I might change here is switching Braun and Fielder, getting Prince's better OBA in front of Braun's power. However, the switch only results in 0.03 more runs per game, or about five runs over the season. That's half a win, and in a close division or wild card race it might make a difference.
There really isn't much OBA from the fifth slot down. Pitchers should have it pretty easy once they get through he heart of the lineup.
Other teams in this series:
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I like this series you are doing.
This one is pretty scary, as it basically says Milwaukee's offense is at the bottom end of the NL (at least among the teams you have profiled so far).
Philadelphia, down there with them, can handle it because they have decent pitching. Milwaukee can't say the same.
Out of curiosity, I re-ran it with the PECOTA and depth chart stuff from BP. Milwaukee comes out about a quarter run higher in best, probable and worst. An approximate 4 win difference.
A lot of that comes from a rosier Rickie Weeks projection, and giving Hall 70% of the PAs at 3b instead of Lamb.
