March 11, 2009
Team Offense, Tampa Bay Rays
Dioner Navarro
Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
- Best lineup: 5.44 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.36 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 5.11 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.87 runs per game
The Rays scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008.
I don't like Carl Crawford in the two hole, and neither does the Lineup Analysis Tool. However, given that this lineup is very close to the runs scored by the ideal lineup, I can't complain too much. This is a good offensive team, although I'd like to see players like Burrell bat higher so he gets more opportunities to get on base.
One nice thing is that Upton, Longoria and Navarro are still in the growth phase of their careers. If I had to pick one player to exceed his Marcel projections, it would be Dioner Navarro. He's pulled down by his previous seasons where various personal problems and injuries pulled down his stats. I suspect he'll be closer to his 2008 numbers than his career norms.
Other teams in this series:
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If this holds accurate, the Rays will score 94 more runs this year than they did last year.
When one considers that Jackson will be replaced by Price, Kazmir won't be missing the first 1 1/2 months, Iwamura will presumably be better on defense with a year at the position under his belt, Longoria starts the year with the team, Crawford likely to play more... the Rays look REAL good going in.
If the Rays can avoid the injury bug, a repeat run at the playoffs looks likely.
If the Rays can avoid the injury bug, a repeat run at the playoffs looks likely.
